Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China continues to lead among major banks in performance, with a 2.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 3.0% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 [4][6] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio slightly decreased to 1.27%, while the provision coverage ratio improved to 295% [4][6] - The bank's strong performance is attributed to accelerated asset growth and a significant increase in non-interest income, which grew by 20.7% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the total revenue is projected to be 718.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.15% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 290.51 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 2.99% year-on-year growth [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.10% in 2025, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.27% [5] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to remain strong at 295.11% in 2025 [5] Performance Highlights - The bank's revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2025, with a 3.0% increase in net profit compared to the previous year, outperforming the average of major banks [6] - Deposit growth accelerated to 9.3% in the third quarter, supporting credit expansion [6] - The bank's net interest margin remained stable at 1.30%, with a slight decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [6] Investment Analysis - Agricultural Bank of China is expected to undergo a new round of value reassessment due to its superior revenue and profit performance among state-owned banks [6] - The stock has risen nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, leading the banking sector [6] - The bank's strong capital base and anticipated mid-term dividends are expected to further solidify its high dividend advantage [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China [1] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China continues to lead among major banks in performance, with a 2.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 3.0% increase in net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [4][6] - The bank's non-interest income has seen a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year, contributing positively to revenue growth despite a decline in net interest income [6][10] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.27% and a high provision coverage ratio of 295% [6][10] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the bank is projected to achieve total revenue of 718.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.15% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 290.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.99% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.10% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.43 [5] Performance Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the bank's total assets amounted to 48.14 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [10] - The total loans increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with total deposits also growing by 9.3% [10] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) is projected to be 1.30% for 2025, down from previous levels due to competitive pressures [6][10]

Core Insights - The Hexi Corridor, historically significant as part of the Silk Road, is experiencing revitalization through unique agricultural and renewable energy developments driven by financial support [2][3]. Financial Support and Agricultural Development - Agricultural Bank's timely financial assistance has enabled local farmers to overcome funding challenges, facilitating the growth of organic vegetable farming in Gansu [3][4]. - The introduction of flexible loan products like "Fumin Loan" has encouraged farmers to expand operations, leading to significant increases in income and employment opportunities [4][8]. - Ma Zhaocun's organic vegetable base has grown to 3,600 acres, generating sales of 42 million yuan in 2024, with an average income of 35,000 yuan per acre, five times higher than conventional vegetable farming [4][8]. Specialty Crop Production - The region has become known for its high-quality grapes, with over 10,000 acres dedicated to grape cultivation, yielding more than 20,000 tons annually and generating over 50 million yuan in revenue [7][8]. - Financial support from Agricultural Bank has enabled local farmers to upgrade their production methods, enhancing both quality and profitability [7][8]. Seed Production Industry - Zhangye is recognized as the largest corn seed production base in China, with over 1 million acres dedicated to seed production, accounting for nearly half of the national seed supply [8][12]. - The Agricultural Bank's "Hexi Corridor Seed Loan" has provided crucial funding to ensure timely operations during critical production periods [8][12]. Dairy Farming Innovations - Dairy farming in Gulang County has faced challenges due to funding and asset limitations, prompting the introduction of the "Smart Livestock Loan" to leverage livestock as collateral [12][13]. - The bank's innovative approach includes real-time monitoring of livestock through IoT technology, enhancing asset management and reducing credit risk [14][13]. Renewable Energy Development - The region is transforming its ecological disadvantages into advantages for renewable energy, with significant solar and wind energy projects underway [16][17]. - Agricultural Bank has committed substantial financing to support these projects, including a 15 billion yuan credit line for a solar power project [18][17]. - The introduction of energy storage solutions is addressing the challenges of renewable energy intermittency, with significant investments in compressed air storage technology [18][19]. Credit Innovations - The "Electricity e-Loan" product allows businesses to leverage their electricity payment history as a basis for credit, promoting sustainable agricultural practices [19][18]. - This innovative financing model supports the development of modern irrigation technologies, enhancing water efficiency in agriculture [19][18].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth and development of inclusive finance in China, particularly focusing on small and micro enterprises and rural areas, with a notable annual growth rate of over 20% in inclusive micro loans during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] - As of June 2025, the balance of inclusive micro loans reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a decrease in interest rates by 2 percentage points [1][2] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive micro loans was 3.48% as of June 2025, reflecting a decrease of 66 basis points year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Digital Empowerment - Digital technology has been a key driver for the development of inclusive finance, with banks utilizing big data and AI to enhance loan approval efficiency and reduce financing costs [2][7] - The market structure among banks is changing, with large commercial banks holding a 45.11% share of inclusive micro loans, while rural financial institutions have seen a decline in their market share [2][3] - The average growth rate of inclusive micro loans has been slowing down, with a decrease from 30.9% in 2020 to 12.3% by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Performance of Listed Banks - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Beijing Bank reported the highest growth rates in inclusive micro loans at 18.50%, 17.30%, and 17.27% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, some banks, including Shanghai Bank and Zhengzhou Bank, experienced negative growth rates of -3.97% and -2.06% [3][4] - The performance of different banks varies significantly, with state-owned banks generally showing stronger growth in inclusive micro loans compared to smaller banks [3][4] Group 3: Interest Rates and Risk Management - The interest rates for newly issued inclusive micro loans have decreased across various banks, with the highest rate at 4.20% and the lowest at 2.94% [7][8] - The gap in interest rates between large and small banks is narrowing, with some large banks' rates aligning closely with those of smaller banks [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk management in the inclusive finance sector, with several banks focusing on improving asset quality and managing non-performing loans [9][10]

Core Insights - Recent trends show banks like Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank entering the real estate market with "bank direct supply houses," offering properties at prices up to 25% lower than market value, such as a property priced at 2 million being sold for 1.5 million [1][3] - The low-priced properties are part of banks' strategy to accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets, primarily consisting of collateral obtained through judicial processes, with banks opting for direct sales to quickly recover funds [3][4] - The direct supply houses offer clear property rights, alleviating concerns over hidden debts, but the low prices also indicate challenges in the judicial auction market, where the average discount rate for auctioned properties has been 31% since June, leading to increased instances of unsold properties [4][5] Investment Perspective - From an investment standpoint, bank direct supply houses present potential opportunities for bargain purchases; however, investors should be cautious as these properties are often located in third and fourth-tier cities or non-core areas, which may lead to liquidity issues when reselling [5][6] - Investors should remain patient and monitor price fluctuations, as banks may frequently adjust prices to achieve quick sales, making it essential to understand local real estate markets to ensure successful future transactions [5][6] - Overall, while bank direct supply houses offer potential investment opportunities, careful consideration of property location, liquidity, market trends, and pricing strategies is crucial for minimizing risks [6]

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a positive performance with a 0.54% increase as of November 10, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Luxi Chemical (000830) up by 9.99% and Shaanxi鼓动力 (601369) up by 2.90% [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has also increased by 0.25%, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards dividend-paying stocks [1] - Analysts suggest that the fourth quarter may see increased policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, which could benefit stable dividend-paying companies [1] Market Performance - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF recorded a turnover rate of 1.26% with a transaction volume of 568,400 yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 4.0748 million yuan over the past month [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 17.08% of the index, with China COSCO Shipping (601919) being the largest component [2] Investment Strategy - The current market environment, characterized by high historical index levels and profit-taking pressures, suggests that dividend stocks may offer better value during periods of market volatility [1] - The index comprises 100 listed companies selected for their high cash dividend yields and stable dividend distributions, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [1]

Core Insights - Banks are accelerating direct property sales to enhance debt recovery rates, particularly during the real estate market adjustment period [1][8] - The phenomenon of "bank direct supply housing" is primarily driven by the disposal of non-performing loans, where banks acquire full ownership of properties through debt stripping and then sell or lease them directly [1][3] Group 1: Market Activity - Multiple banks, including Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Transportation Bank, are actively listing properties for direct sale on online platforms, with some banks offering over a thousand properties [1][2] - Local city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives are significantly contributing to the scale of direct listings, with banks like Lanzhou Bank and Jilin Bank leading in the number of properties available [3] Group 2: Pricing and Sales Strategy - "Bank direct supply housing" typically offers significant price advantages compared to regular second-hand and judicial auction properties, often sold below market value to expedite asset liquidation [5] - For instance, a property auctioned by Lanzhou Rural Commercial Bank sold for 151 million yuan, while similar properties were listed between 180 million and 220 million yuan [5] Group 3: Asset Management Approaches - In addition to direct sales, some banks are exploring leasing options to activate assets, with examples including China Bank auctioning residential lease rights [6] - The properties sold directly by banks often originate from judicial auctions that failed to sell, or through proactive judicial processes where banks acquire properties after legal proceedings [6][7] Group 4: Market Conditions and Trends - The increase in direct property sales is influenced by the cooling of the judicial auction market, prompting banks to seek alternative methods for asset disposal [9] - Traditional methods of handling non-performing loans can take over two years, while direct sales can significantly shorten this timeline, thus improving overall debt recovery rates [8]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 15th National Games officially commenced on November 9, marking the first time the event is co-hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau, featuring a large scale and diverse participation [1] - Financial institutions have mobilized to support the event, with the People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch leading efforts to implement financial services aimed at enhancing the sports industry [1] Group 2: Green Financing Initiatives - The construction of renovated sports venues in Guangzhou, including the Tianhe Sports Center, was supported by over 100 million yuan in funding from China Construction Bank [2] - A total of 700 billion yuan in credit support has been provided for infrastructure projects related to the National Games, with nearly 200 billion yuan allocated to green infrastructure projects [2] Group 3: Payment Experience Enhancements - The Bank of China Guangdong Branch has upgraded services allowing Hong Kong and Macau residents to open mainland accounts remotely, enhancing accessibility for event participants [3] - A comprehensive payment settlement system has been established, featuring ATMs, currency exchange machines, and POS systems to cater to diverse payment needs for attendees [3] Group 4: Digital Currency Innovations - Agricultural Bank of China has introduced digital RMB self-service devices at event dining locations, allowing for quick and interactive payment experiences [4] - Consumers can purchase tickets for the National Games using digital RMB through the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's online platform [4] Group 5: Security Financing Support - China Bank provided critical financial support to security service providers for the event, facilitating quick loan approvals and efficient payroll solutions [5] - Agricultural Bank of China offered 1.21 million yuan in funding to a sports development company, aiding in the construction of a new multi-sport facility [6] Group 6: Consumer Market Activation - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China launched a commemorative credit card for the National Games, offering discounts on tickets and at various merchants [7] - Over 200 billion yuan has been financed for sports-related enterprises, with more than 1 billion yuan allocated for promotional activities to stimulate consumer spending [7]

Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB), have announced their bond issuance plans for 2026, indicating a strong focus on raising capital through various debt instruments [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - ICBC plans to issue financial bonds not exceeding 488 billion yuan [1] - CCB intends to issue capital instruments and non-capital debt instruments totaling no more than 700 billion yuan [1] - Other state-owned banks, such as Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China, are also reviewing their future financial bond and capital tool issuance limits [1] Group 2: Market Trends - As of November 9, the total bond issuance by commercial banks for the year has reached 2.88 trillion yuan [1] - The combined issuance of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two perpetual bonds") is approximately 1.37 trillion yuan, showing little change compared to the same period last year [1] - Financial bonds, including bank "two perpetual bonds" and TLAC (Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity) bonds, are becoming core assets for asset management institutions [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In October, the net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) turned positive, and there was a phenomenon where primary market price increases led to a slight rise in secondary market interest rates. The increase in CD supply pressure in October may be due to the decline in the NSFR of some joint - stock banks and preparations for the "good start" at the beginning of next year [3][7][19]. - The pressure on the NSFR of joint - stock banks may have decreased with the significant increase in their net CD financing. The probability of a significant increase in the overall supply pressure of bank CDs this year, which could lead to a situation similar to that in Q1 where primary market price increases drive a sharp rise in secondary market interest rates, is relatively limited [4][43][45]. - In the baseline scenario, the central range of DR001 in November may be similar to that in October, remaining between 1.3% - 1.4%. Further decline in funding rates may require a policy rate cut [4][50]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases reflects that the current fundamental environment still requires monetary easing support. The central bank's interest - rate cut cycle is not over, and it is only a matter of time before the interest - rate cut is implemented. It is expected that the CD interest rate will fluctuate between 1.55% - 1.65% this year [4][52][53]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Q3 CD Supply - Demand Environment was Favorable, and the Widening Spread with Funds may be Disturbed by the Rise in Short - Term Interest Rates - In 2025, CD interest rates first rose, then fell, and finally stabilized. After the interest - rate cut in May, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate basically fluctuated within the range of 1.6% - 1.7% [7]. - From May to September, banks' liability pressure was relatively limited. Asset - side credit growth slowed down, and the liability - side funding was loose. The central bank increased medium - term liquidity injection, resulting in negative net CD financing [10]. - Since Q2, non - bank institutions' demand for CDs has remained high. The spread between CDs and funds has widened, which is related to the weakening of the central bank's "timely reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cut" statement and the rise in short - term policy - financial bond yields [12][14]. - CDs are more resilient than policy - financial bonds. In the current supply - demand environment, the 30BP spread between CDs and funds may be at the upper limit of the fluctuation range, and it may be difficult to break through the 1.7% high in September [18]. II. The Increase in the Net Financing of Joint - Stock Bank CDs in October may be Affected by the Decline in NSFR and Preparations for the "Good Start" - In October, the net financing of CDs turned positive again, especially for joint - stock banks. From the perspective of asset - liability matching, commercial banks may not have significant liability pressure [19][20]. - The view that banks increase CD issuance at the end of the year to preserve next year's issuance quota may not be the main reason for the increase in CD issuance scale [23]. - Although the central bank's monetary policy tools were tilted towards large - scale banks in Q3, from the overall asset - liability perspective, the liability gap of small and medium - sized banks was not significantly higher than that of large - scale banks [31][33]. - In Q3, the NSFR of large - scale banks improved, while that of joint - stock banks declined. The decline in the NSFR of some joint - stock banks may be an important reason for the increase in their CD issuance scale in October. Some banks with relatively stable NSFR indicators may also be preparing for the "good start" at the beginning of next year [35][36]. III. The Decline in the NSFR of Joint - Stock Banks may be Affected by Deposit Migration and Increased Bond Investment, but the Related Pressure may have Gradually Eased after October - The increase in the NSFR of large - scale banks is due to the decline in the growth rate of required stable funds and the increase in the growth rate of available stable funds, which is related to the change in deposit structure [38]. - For small and medium - sized banks, the growth rate of required stable funds increased, while the growth rate of available stable funds decreased. Deposit migration may have reduced their liability costs but also put pressure on their NSFR [40]. - With the significant increase in the net CD financing of joint - stock banks, the pressure on their NSFR may have decreased, which is reflected in the increase in their reverse - repurchase scale [43]. - It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in November will rise but still be lower than that in the first three quarters. The central bank's possible purchase of treasury bonds is beneficial to the alleviation of bank liability pressure and the improvement of NSFR [45]. IV. CD Interest Rates may Remain Volatile and Decline at the End of the Year, with a Slight Downward Shift in the Central Range - In October, the spreads between DR001, DR007, and OMO reached new lows, and the funding volatility remained low. The current funding relaxation is the central bank's response to the fundamental environment [46]. - DR001 still has 10BP of downward space, but even if the lower limit drops to 1.2%, its central range may not decline significantly, and the volatility may increase. In the baseline scenario, the central range of DR001 will remain between 1.3% - 1.4% [50]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases reflects the need for monetary easing. Although there is uncertainty about the timing of the interest - rate cut, it is expected that the CD interest rate will fluctuate between 1.55% - 1.65% this year [4][52][53].