Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance and securities sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [6]. Core Insights - The insurance sector experienced significant growth in premium income, with total insurance premium income reaching 479.98 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. In August alone, the premium income was 59.13 billion yuan, up 35.6% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are expected to enhance its attractiveness. The direct financing proportion has increased to 31.6%, up 2.8 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable monetary policy and the implementation of tools to maintain capital market stability, which has improved the resilience and risk resistance of the A-share market [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The broad market indices showed a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.21% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.96% during the week [10]. Securities Sector - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11.46 trillion yuan, with a daily average trading amount of 2.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116.72% [17]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 69.90 billion yuan, marking a 112% increase compared to 2024 [17]. Insurance Sector - The life insurance premium income for the first eight months of 2025 was 357.97 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, while property insurance premium income was 122.01 billion yuan, up 4.7% [1]. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted 2.47 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, resulting in a net injection of 880.6 billion yuan [28]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The report notes significant achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including a total of 10.6 trillion yuan in dividends and buybacks by listed companies, which is an increase of over 80% compared to the previous plan [2][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as Sunshine Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, as well as top securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [38].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 28 日 金管局再提保险法修订，预定利率 下调预期带动 8 月保费表现亮眼 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/9/22-2025/9/26） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 0.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.25pct。1）"9·24"一揽子政策 实施一周年，资本市场高质量稳增长态势巩固。根据中证报，截至 9 月 25 日，市场融资融券余额 为 24,443.66 亿元。今年以来 A 股市场有 4 个交易日单日成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main lines of investment opportunities in the securities sector, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the coming months [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition of the capital market from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative improvement" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations for increased support for technology innovation and a focus on investor returns [2][37]. - The insurance sector is experiencing high growth in life insurance premiums, with a notable increase in health insurance, while non-auto insurance faces challenges [4][36]. - The report identifies a significant improvement in the performance of brokerage firms, with a mismatch between high profitability and low valuations, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume of A-shares is 23,132 billion, reflecting a decrease of 8.1% week-on-week, while the year-to-date average daily trading volume for equity funds has increased by 98.1% year-on-year [15]. - It highlights the strong performance of brokerage firms in the first half of the year, with a recommendation to focus on those with high investment ratios and significant merger and acquisition potential [3][4]. Insurance Sector - The report notes that life insurance premiums increased by 11.4% year-on-year to 35,797 billion in the first eight months of 2025, with life insurance and health insurance growing by 14.0% and 0.5%, respectively [4][36]. - It also mentions that property insurance premiums grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with auto insurance maintaining steady growth while non-auto insurance faced pressure [4][36]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing interest of insurance companies in real estate investments, with a notable rise in investment scale compared to the previous year [36]. - It also highlights the significant increase in direct financing in the capital market, with a total of 57.5 trillion raised in the past five years, indicating a shift towards a more robust financing structure [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, suggesting it is a growth area within the financial industry due to supply-side reforms and benefits from rising equity assets [2][17] - The securities sector is viewed as relatively undervalued with high growth potential, particularly in light of ongoing industry improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [3][19] - The banking sector is expected to see a medium to long-term valuation recovery, with limited downside risk due to strong fundamentals [4][20] Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a slight decline of -0.09%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16 percentage points [1][11] - The insurance sector has made significant progress in cost reduction, achieving a cumulative cost reduction of 350 billion yuan since 2024, with the lowest comprehensive cost and expense ratios in nearly a decade for property insurance [2][14] - The securities sector is projected to achieve a net profit of 67 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting an 86% year-on-year increase, supported by a favorable market environment [3][19] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.53, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery, with a focus on banks with high growth and low non-performing loans [4][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index rose by 0.46%, but still underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.61 percentage points [2][14] - The sector is benefiting from regulatory support and a focus on cost efficiency, with significant reductions in operational costs [2][15] - Investment recommendations include China Pacific Insurance (A+H), New China Life Insurance (A+H), and Ping An Insurance (A) [2][17] Securities Sector - The securities index fell by 0.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [3][18] - The sector is characterized by ongoing digital transformation and potential for mergers, with a projected net profit of 67 billion yuan for Q3 2025 [3][19] - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities (A+H), GF Securities (A+H), and Dongfang Securities (A+H) [3][19] Banking Sector - The banking index declined by 0.48%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points [4][20] - The banking sector's PB ratio is at 0.53, indicating a favorable valuation environment for long-term investments [4][20] - Investment focus should be on banks with diversified operations and stable performance, such as Hangzhou Bank and China CITIC Bank (H) [4][21]

Core Insights - The insurance premium from bank-insurance cooperation accounted for 64% of the new insurance premiums in the first half of the year, expected to approach 70% by year-end, indicating a solidified channel structure dominated by bank-insurance partnerships [1] - The relationship between banks and insurance companies has evolved from merely sharing profits to a comprehensive strategic collaboration across various sectors including ecology, deposits, bonds, custody, and technology [1] Group 1: Trends in Bank-Insurance Cooperation - Four major trends in bank-insurance cooperation have been identified: the establishment of a bank-insurance dominated sales channel, an increase in complex insurance products, the growing importance of ecological services, and the empowerment of the entire bank-insurance operation chain through digital technology [1] - The bank-insurance cooperation is crucial for banks as it serves as a significant source of non-interest income, helping to alleviate the pressure from narrowing net interest margins [2] Group 2: Policy Impact on Growth - The substantial growth of bank-insurance channels is closely linked to recent policy changes, such as the "Report and Action Integration" policy, which encourages a shift from fee-driven models to customer service-centered value creation [3] - The cancellation of the "1+3" cooperation limit allows banks to partner with more insurance companies, thereby expanding collaboration opportunities [3] Group 3: Shift Towards Complex Products - The demand for complex insurance products is increasing, driven by macro trends such as aging population and declining interest rates, with customers showing a preference for long-term savings and protection products [4] - The sales of floating yield products like dividend insurance have been actively promoted by listed insurance companies to reduce rigid liability costs and alleviate long-term interest spread pressure [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The insurance stocks collectively rose, with New China Life Insurance increasing by 3.04% to HKD 43.4, China Pacific Insurance up by 2.34% to HKD 30.64, and China Life Insurance rising by 0.66% to HKD 21.4 [2] - The overall market sentiment appears positive, as indicated by the upward movement in stock prices across major insurance companies [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huaxi Securities noted that the continuous reduction in life insurance preset interest rates and the promotion of unified reporting and sales channels are expected to lower liability costs, potentially leading to stable growth in the new business value (NBV) of listed insurance companies by 2025 [2] - The property and casualty insurance sector is also expected to see improvements in underwriting profits due to ongoing efforts in channel integration and refined expense management [2] - Guosen Securities highlighted that the industry's transformation in liability channels, products, and costs is showing significant improvement, with high demand for asset allocation in insurance funds expected to continue [2] - The focus on long-term bonds and high-dividend assets is likely to persist, suggesting a favorable environment for companies with strong business models and relatively low valuations, such as China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new accounting standards in the insurance industry by 2026 will drive insurance funds to increase their allocation of stocks under the FVOCI category, enhancing the stability of profit reports for insurance companies [2][6]. Group 1: FVOCI Accounting Category - FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) allows insurance companies to measure financial assets at fair value without affecting their profit and loss statements, thus stabilizing profit reports [2][6]. - As of June 2023, several listed insurance companies have seen significant increases in their FVOCI equity asset holdings, with Xinhua Insurance's FVOCI equity assets rising from 30.64 billion to 37.47 billion yuan, and China Life's FVOCI stock holdings reaching 140.26 billion yuan, accounting for 22.6% of its total stock investments [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks, particularly in sectors benefiting from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving cash flow amid inflation [4][8]. - The shift towards FVOCI is also a strategy to address the mismatch in asset-liability durations, as many insurance companies face a duration gap of 4-7 years, significantly higher than the 1-2 years seen in markets like Japan and Germany [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - The increasing allocation of equities to FVOCI is prompting insurance companies to adjust their investment logic from short-term capital gains to a focus on stable stock price fluctuations and sustainable dividend income [14]. - The dual effect of this strategy is that while it stabilizes profit reports, it also requires insurance companies to maintain a long-term perspective on their investments, which aligns with the regulatory environment favoring long-term assessments [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is increasingly adopting FVOCI accounting for high dividend stocks to stabilize profit reports and enhance long-term dividend income [2][5][10] Group 1: FVOCI Accounting Adoption - FVOCI accounting allows insurance companies to measure financial assets at fair value without impacting annual profit reports, thus stabilizing profit volatility [2][5] - As of June 2023, major insurance companies have significantly increased their FVOCI equity asset holdings, with Xinhua Insurance's FVOCI equity assets rising from 30.64 billion to 37.47 billion yuan and China Life's FVOCI stock holdings reaching 140.26 billion yuan, accounting for 22.6% of its total stock investments [2][3] - The implementation of new accounting standards in 2026 is expected to further drive the allocation of insurance capital into FVOCI stocks [2][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are focusing on high dividend stocks, particularly in sectors benefiting from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving cash flow amid inflation [3][6] - The strategy includes identifying stocks with improved cash flow and dividend potential through bottom-up research methods [3][6] - The shift towards FVOCI is also aimed at addressing the mismatch between asset and liability durations, with many companies experiencing a duration gap of 4-7 years [6][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The rise of FVOCI has led to a "double-edged sword" effect, where significant unrealized gains from FVOCI assets do not appear on profit statements, potentially obscuring the true performance of insurance companies [9][10] - This shift in accounting practices allows for a more stable assessment of insurance companies' core business performance, enhancing investor confidence [10] - The focus on long-term dividend income is changing the investment logic of insurance companies, moving away from short-term capital gains to a more stable income approach [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive with expectations of further easing from the Federal Reserve, which has already lowered rates by 25 basis points in September, with projections for additional cuts by the end of the year [2] - A-shares are experiencing a high level of trading activity, with average daily turnover exceeding 2.45 trillion yuan in September, up from 2.31 trillion yuan in August, indicating strong market liquidity [2] - The technology sector continues to show strength, with the Wande Technology Index accounting for 40.8% of total A-share trading volume, reflecting ongoing liquidity inflows into this sector [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector is characterized by a clear differentiation between high and low performers, with previous leaders like optical modules and communication equipment seeing lower gains in September, while semiconductor materials and energy storage stocks have shown significant recovery [2][3] - Cyclical and dividend-paying stocks remain weak due to poor economic data, with various sectors underperforming compared to technology [3] - The current risk premium for A-shares is low, with the risk premium for the CSI 300 index at 5.19%, close to historical lows, suggesting limited downside potential [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on technology stocks with a strong price-performance ratio, particularly those that have lagged behind in previous rallies, to enhance potential returns [5] - There is an emphasis on upstream materials related to energy storage and semiconductor industries, such as lithium and cobalt, which are expected to benefit from ongoing demand growth in electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing [5] - The October stock selection includes a diverse range of sectors, highlighting companies in innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, automotive, and communications, indicating a strategic approach to capitalize on sectoral strengths [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In August, the life insurance sector experienced a strong premium growth of 49.7% year-on-year, significantly up from July's growth rate [4] - The report anticipates a gradual decline in premium growth rates post-September, as the surge in August is attributed to the "stop炒" effect of old products amid a backdrop of lowered preset interest rates [4] - The health insurance sector's premium growth remained stable at 2.6% year-on-year in August, with a long-term growth potential identified through the integration of health management and insurance services [4] - The property insurance sector saw a modest premium growth of 0.9% in August, primarily impacted by a decline in non-auto insurance premiums [4] - The report highlights that leading insurance companies maintain robust growth and quality in their business, particularly in auto insurance, where lower loss ratios enhance profitability [4] - The valuation of the insurance sector remains at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57-0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02-2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [4] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - August's life insurance premiums reached CNY 4,645 billion, marking a 49.7% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative premium of CNY 37,999 billion for the first eight months of 2025, up 11.3% year-on-year [4] - The report notes a shift towards dividend insurance products as a response to the changing interest rate environment [4] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in August grew by 2.6%, with a cumulative growth of 2.4% for the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for health insurance to expand through a comprehensive health ecosystem [4] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums in August increased by 0.9%, with a cumulative growth of 4.7% for the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The report indicates that the growth in auto insurance premiums is supported by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [4] Market Outlook - The report suggests that both liability and asset sides of the insurance companies are improving, with a favorable outlook for the industry as a whole [4] - The anticipated recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on investment yields for insurance companies [4]