每经AI快讯，1月13日，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 每日经济新闻 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Hong Kong/China Insurance Industry Industry Overview - The insurance industry in Asia Pacific, particularly in China, is viewed as Attractive, with expectations for continued re-rating driven by strong sales growth, improved quality, and a favorable investment environment [1][7] - Concerns regarding interest rate spread loss risks are anticipated to ease further, supporting the positive outlook for insurers [1][2] Core Insights - The insurance segment outperformed the market in 2024-25, primarily due to asset-side catalysts and stabilized interest rates since the second half of 2025 [2] - For 2026, a dual boost is expected from both asset and liability sides, with strong Value of New Business (VNB) growth anticipated, improved product mix, channel margins, and productivity [2] - The market sentiment remains healthy, contributing to expectations of improved underlying earnings and enterprise value (EV) for China insurers [2] Investment Trends - In 2025, insurers increased their stock market allocations significantly, with over Rmb1 trillion of new inflows estimated [3] - A similar trend is expected in 2026, with regulatory modifications potentially allowing for further relaxation of equity investment capital consumption [3] Stock Preferences - The preference order for stocks is: Ping An (Top Pick), followed by China Life, CPIC, AIA, and PICC P&C [4] - Ping An is highlighted for its strong performance potential, while China Life H and CPIC H are also expected to benefit from industry-wide tailwinds [4] Risks - Identified downside risks include lower interest rates, a sluggish stock market, and unexpected regulatory tightening [5] Performance Metrics - The insurance sector saw a broad-based re-rating in 2025, with notable stock performance: New China Life (+130%), China Life (+87%), Prudential (+93%), and PICC Group (+74%) [13] - H-shares outperformed broader benchmarks, with significant gains compared to the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) [13] Valuation Insights - Valuation upside is anticipated through Price-to-Book (P/B), Price-to-Enterprise Value (P/EV), and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios, with expectations for mid-teens return on equity (ROE) and double-digit VNB growth [2][52] - The current P/B for H-share life names is around 1.0-1.3x, with potential to rise to 1.3-1.5x [53] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment is seen as supportive, with favorable policies emerging since late 2023 to mitigate risks and encourage long-term investments in the stock market [61] - Upcoming modifications to solvency rules are expected, which could impact capital levels and investment strategies [67][69] Key Drivers of Demand - The expansion of household financial assets in China is a significant multi-year demand tailwind, projected to grow to Rmb440 trillion by 2030 [19] - Increasing demand for senior care and healthcare services is expected to drive insurance product appeal and retention [20] Conclusion - The outlook for the Hong Kong/China insurance industry remains positive, with strong growth potential driven by favorable market conditions, regulatory support, and evolving consumer needs in financial and healthcare services [1][2][61]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a collective rise in insurance stocks on January 13, with notable increases in major companies' stock prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Life Insurance experienced a stock price increase of over 4% [1] - New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance both saw stock price rises of over 3% [1] - China Insurance and Ping An Insurance recorded stock price increases of nearly 3% [1]

格隆汇1月13日｜A股市场保险股集体走强，其中，中国人寿涨超4%，新华保险、中国人保涨超3%，中 国太保、中国平安涨近3%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 1 | 4.41 | 14590亿 | 13.45 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | + | 3.76 | 2591亿 | 19.18 | | 601319 | 中国人保 | 1 | 3.27 | 4475亿 | 13.07 | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 安 | 2.97 | 4496亿 | 11.50 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 1 | 2.77 | 12570亿 | 1.49 | ...

1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 1月13日金融一线消息，保险板块短线拉升，中国人保、新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安均涨超2%。 责任编辑：王馨茹 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Insurance Sector Industry Overview - The insurance sector is currently experiencing low valuations, with China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (Ping An) having P/EV ratios of approximately 0.7 and 0.8 respectively for 2026, indicating rapid growth in intrinsic value [1][2] - China Life Insurance Company Limited (China Life) has a higher valuation in the A-share market at around 0.9 times P/EV, attributed to its faster growth in intrinsic value, but the Hong Kong-listed version is recommended due to significant discounts compared to A-shares [3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The quality of pre-receipt data from late 2025 to early 2026 is strong, with a decline in bank deposit rates leading to increased funds flowing into insurance products. It is expected that premium growth will be high in the first quarter of 2026 but may face pressure in the third quarter [1][5] - Rising interest rates are beneficial for insurance companies' fixed-income investments, alleviating risks associated with interest spread losses. The yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to approximately 1.9%, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous year [5][7] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance companies is around 15.5%. A strong stock market will enhance insurance companies' earnings [5][7] Impact of Dividend Insurance Products - Dividend insurance products have a shorter effective duration, allowing insurance companies to be more flexible in their fixed-income asset allocation and increasing their risk appetite. It is anticipated that dividend insurance will constitute a significant portion of new premium growth [6][9] Investment Strategies and Profit Expectations - Insurance companies are focusing on increasing their equity allocation to benefit from stock market gains. Despite a solid profit outlook for 2025, the primary profit source is expected to be in the third quarter, with a relatively low profit base in the first half of 2026 [8] - The anticipated performance for the first quarter of 2026 is optimistic, with expectations that even if the market's growth in the third quarter is lower than the previous year, profits will remain stable [8] Market Performance and Forecasts - Recent performance of insurance stocks has been strong, with notable increases in share prices for Xinhua Insurance and CPIC at the start of 2026. However, Ping An's performance has been more volatile [2] - By the end of January, major insurance companies are expected to release profit forecasts. China Life and Xinhua Insurance are likely to announce forecasts, while Ping An's profit growth is projected to be lower than 50% for the year [11] Industry Valuation and Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the insurance industry in the first half of 2026 is optimistic, with no significant negative factors affecting the asset and liability sides. Valuations could reach 1.5 times PEV under favorable market conditions, while they may drop to 0.7 to 0.8 times PEV under poor conditions [12] - The policy environment remains supportive, and large listed companies are expected to continue outperforming smaller firms in premium growth, enhancing their market share [12]

Investment Logic - The core view is that new individual insurance premiums for listed insurance companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [1][18] - The individual insurance channel is anticipated to maintain steady growth, while the bancassurance channel will benefit from the migration of deposits, leading to an increase in market share for large insurance companies [1][18] - The growth in the bancassurance channel is expected to dilute fixed costs, significantly enhancing overall profitability [1][18] Bancassurance Channel - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, transitioning from scale compensation to value pursuit, resulting in a rise in market share [2][8] - The bancassurance channel has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023, while individual insurance premiums have declined [9] - The "reporting and banking integration" policy implemented in August 2023 has significantly reduced costs, enhancing the value rate of the bancassurance channel [14][9] Customer Deposit Analysis - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents' deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations of low renewal rates due to the withdrawal of high-yield time deposits [3][25] - The majority of maturing depositors are aged 45 and above, indicating a lower risk appetite, with insurance products being the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4][30] - Wealth managers believe that bank wealth management products will be the most accepted option for maturing deposits, followed by insurance products [30][27] Sales Logic for Insurance Products - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products [5][33] - The core advantages of participating in dividend insurance sales include stable returns, capital safety, and alignment with long-term financial planning [36][40] - Challenges in selling dividend insurance include uncertainty in returns and the long duration of products, which may deter potential customers [40][36] Market Forecast - The insurance industry is projected to see new single premium growth exceeding 25% in 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel [42][44] - The expected influx of maturing deposits into insurance products will be significant, with estimates of new funds in the bancassurance channel reaching 11,150 billion by the end of 2026 [44][44] - The concentration trend among leading insurance companies is expected to continue, with larger firms benefiting from improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [47][48]

Group 1 - The insurance sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on January 12, with China Pacific Insurance leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key individual stock performances included China Life Insurance up 1.29% to 49.44, while China Pacific Insurance fell 2.41% to 45.38 [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector saw a net outflow of 2.661 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.387 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock fund flows indicated that China Life Insurance had a net outflow of 89.416 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Pacific Insurance experienced a net outflow of 114 million yuan from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 107 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The current market uptrend is supported by long-term capital inflows and strong performance from the insurance sector, with the A500 ETF seeing significant net inflows of nearly 100 billion RMB in December 2025, contributing to market buoyancy [4][8][12] - The "spring rally" is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the A-share market, typically occurring from late December to the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic policies, liquidity conditions, and the timing of financial reports [5][22][24] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally usually starts in late January and lasts about 30 trading days, with an average index increase of approximately 15% [24][25][31] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to remain in a weak recovery phase, with structural support for technology-related sectors likely to continue, as policies emphasize growth and technological advancement [33][37][38] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is showing initial results, with several high-tech companies moving from policy-driven growth to performance validation, which is crucial for sustained investment confidence [40][41][45] - The market is likely to experience active trading with structural opportunities rather than a broad-based rally, as long-term capital and policy support create a conducive environment for thematic investments [48][49][50] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing small-cap growth and innovation-driven sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite [57][58] - The strategy should focus on short-term trend tracking and rapid rotation among themes, as the market dynamics are driven more by policy and industry expectations than by fundamental improvements [60][61] - The securities and financial technology sectors are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and active leverage, while the insurance sector is positioned for long-term growth due to favorable market conditions and improved investment returns [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].