证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，地方隐性债务一揽子化债组合拳靴子落地。 11月8日，全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议 案》。 新一轮化债方案旨在2028年底前通过三项政策工具，将地方政府隐性债务总额从14.3万亿降至2.3万亿： 1）3年6万亿元置换额度；2）5年4万亿元专项债化债额度；上述两项共计10万亿元。 华泰证券认为，整体化债方案符合预期，化债思路更加务实，置换后地方政府的化债压力和现金流将大 为改善，五年累计可节约6000亿元左右利息支出。 华泰证券认为，化债思路的底层逻辑更多体现"托底防风险"，而非"强刺激"思路。 当前外部地缘政治风险抬升，外需或进一步承压；市场期待下一步财政政策更多聚焦房地产纾困，扩大 消费需求，助力修复地方政府、企业、居民三大资产负债表。 化债有三重目标：①解决地方"燃眉之急"；②推动解决地方各类"三角债"问题，降低金融机构呆坏账损 失。 ③扭转存量债务过度占用财政资源的困境。 化债三个基本原则并没有改变：①不改变地方政府的偿债责任。 底层逻辑仍是"谁家的孩子谁抱"。 ②坚决遏制新增隐性债务，避免处理完"旧账"，又增"新账"。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，预计上市银行2025年业绩有望企稳，但息差和信用成本或为主 要扰动变量。 稳增长政策持续，助力银行信贷稳健投放；央行多次表态呵护银行盈利空间，负债端成本改善效应逐步 显现，息差降幅有望逐步收窄；随资本市场回暖，中收有望自低基数回升。 资金风险偏好回暖下，银行选股逻辑从股息避险转向绩优+低估值弹性个股，稳健高股息仍有配置价 值。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，展望2024年第四季度，以旧换新推动下家电社零恢复较为积 极，且零售好转逐步向出货传导，上市公司内销有望逐步优化，而出口随海外补库需求弱化，拉动力或 相对温和。 因此，2024年第四季度需更为重视内销占比较高且更为受益于以旧换新相关板块，同时中国家电企业全 球份额提升逻辑不变，海外消费支撑出口温和增长。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华泰证券（601688）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 出售 Asset Mark 带来净利润显著增长 目标价：23.25 元 当前价：19.66 元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06886 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,719,045,680 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,719,045,680 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,719,045,680 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,719,045,680 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 9,027,302,281 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: HTSC（於中華人民共和國註冊成立，中文公司名稱為华泰证券股份有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities anticipates 2025 to be a year of stabilization amid three cyclical resonances, suggesting that the A-share profit cycle is not "disappearing" but is temporarily "flattened" by high-dimensional factors [1] Group 1: Profit Cycle Insights - The A-share profit cycle has been declining for over three years, longer than previous cycles, but is expected to show stronger performance than domestic macro growth and lead overseas equities in stabilizing in the second half of 2025 [1] - Key factors influencing the profit cycle include: 1) Inventory Cycle: A fiscal impulse in Q4 2024 is expected to drive a credit cycle recovery in Q2 2025, leading to a new inventory cycle in China ahead of overseas markets [1] 2) Capacity Cycle: Supply-side reforms are anticipated to show results from Q2 2025 to early Q4 2025, with A-share profit trends potentially outpacing revenue trends [1] 3) Real Estate and Construction Cycle: If real estate sales stabilize in the second half of 2025, the visibility for A-share profit recovery will increase [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The first half of 2025 is expected to face pressure, while opportunities are anticipated in the second half [1] - A "barbell" investment style is projected to outperform, with large-cap growth stocks expected to perform better in the latter half of the year [1] - Domestic demand is viewed as a protective shield, while manufacturing is seen as a key driver [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is implementing a technology-driven strategy to create new competitive advantages, with multiple business segments leading the industry. The reasonable value range is estimated at 16.98-19.10 yuan, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [5][6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 31.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.52 billion yuan, up 30.6% year-on-year, with an EPS of 1.33 yuan and a ROE of 7.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 13.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.21 billion yuan, up 138.0% year-on-year and 138.8% quarter-on-quarter [6] Business Segments - The brokerage business revenue for the first three quarters was 3.97 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year, accounting for 16.5% of total revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market was 897.6 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year [6][8] - The investment banking business revenue was 1.36 billion yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year, with equity underwriting down 77.1% and bond underwriting down 2.2% [6][8] - Asset management business revenue was 3.03 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, with total assets under management reaching 506 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [6][8] Investment Income - Investment income (including fair value) for the first three quarters was 12.04 billion yuan, up 56.9% year-on-year, with Q3 investment income reaching 7.82 billion yuan, up 321.4% year-on-year [6][8] Valuation - The company is expected to have an EPS of 1.72, 1.89, and 2.03 yuan for 2024-2026E, with BVPS of 21.22, 22.59, and 24.04 yuan respectively. The valuation is considered low, with a P/B ratio of 0.8-0.9x for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 16.98-19.10 yuan [6][9]

证券时报网讯，华泰证券研报指出，10月非农"爆冷"，但主要由一次性因素驱动，美国劳动力市场仍 在"再平衡"过程中。 预计联储不会对这一数据做出过度反应，11—12月或仍各降息一次，但后续降息路径存在不确定性。 即将揭晓的大选结果对市场和联储政策的影响更大。 往前看，由于飓风的影响难以定量测算，潜在的非农就业水平存在较大的不确定性。 考虑到短期经济动能指标维持高景气、三季度GDP指示美国经济内生动能仍在、近期首申人数持续回 落，潜在非农就业水平仍维持相对高位，但仍有待后续数据验证。 此外，本次较差的非农数据很大程度受飓风、罢工等因素扰动，因此预计联储不会对这一数据做出过度 反应，或将按照此前指引，11—12月各降息一次。 但后续降息路径仍待就业扰动消退与大选形势明朗后再决定。 校对：李凌锋 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 华泰证券（601688） 2024 年三季报点评：出售 AssetMark 大幅增 厚投资收益，轻资产业务随市场波动 2024 年 10 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|------------------------------------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | | | | 32,032 36,578 43,620 42,116 45,015 | | | 同比（ % ） | -15.50% | 14.19% | 19.25% | -3.45% | 6.88% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | | | 11,054 12,751 16,153 13,488 14,400 | | | 同比（ % ） | -17.17% | 15.3 ...

证券研究报告 金融公司|公司点评|华泰证券（601688） 出售 AssetMark 收益增厚公司单季业 绩，投资规模有所收缩 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月01日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 华泰证券发布 2024 年三季报，2024 前三季度公司累计实现营业收入 314 亿，yoy+15%；归母 净利润 125 亿，yoy+31%；加权平均 ROE7.59%，较去年同期增加 1.44pct。其中 2024Q3 实现 营收 140 亿元，yoy+58%/qoq+23%;归母净利润 72 亿元，yoy+138%/qoq+139%。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 耿张逸 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 金融公司|公司点评 2024年11月01日 glzqdatemark2 华泰证券(601688) 出售 AssetMark 收益增厚公司单季业绩，投 资规模有所收缩 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|--------------------------|-- ...