月论高股息：防御配置价值显现 20260202 摘要 红利股配置价值上升，周期型红利股如石油石化、建材、有色等表现强 劲。精工红利择时模型转为看多，建议关注公用事业、保险、出版等稳 定性高股息板块，以及铁路、公路、环保、大众消费和地产等潜力型高 股息板块。 险资出于现金收益和股息需求，将继续增配红利股，成为确定性主题。 年初分红险保单销售良好，保费流入增加，险资将在长债、成长股和红 利股中趋势性增配红利。 高速公路板块调整幅度较大，龙头企业如招商公路股息率达 4~4.5%， 部分小票超 5%。1 月货运量边际走强，春运旺季人流出行预测良好， 板块景气度上行，资金流入情况良好，推荐龙头企业。 建筑建材行业看好央企重组优化提速背景下低估值企业，中长期看好涂 料和定制板材赛道，推荐兔宝宝。水泥领域看好业绩稳定且具有投资收 益来源的公司，如防水企业雨虹。 建筑建材行业推荐中材国际和四川路桥等国央企或地方国企，其在局部 区域需求景气或出海业务方面具有较高的业绩增长确定性及分红确定性， 股息率约为 5.5%至 6%。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，春节前后红利股的配置价值如何？ 近期受到海外地缘冲突和美联储主席人选变动的影响 ...

证券之星消息，近日中国石油（601857）新注册了9个项目的软件著作权，包括《地面工程野外道路快 速识别终端软件V1.0》、《云台型制冷光谱相机智能监测系统软件V1.0》、《生产数据实时派生管理及 质量控制系统V1.0》、《加氢精制反应装置模拟软件V1.0》、《柱塞排水采气工艺优化软件V1.0》、 《用于天然气净化的生产系统V1.0》、《监督信息管理平台V1.0》、《延迟焦化反应装置模拟软件 V1.0》、《烷基化反应装置模拟软件V1.0》等。今年以来中国石油新注册软件著作权110个，较去年同 期增加了34.15%。结合公司2025年中报财务数据，2025上半年公司在研发方面投入了98.99亿元，同比 增2.51%。 数据来源：天眼查APP 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油天然气股份有限公司共对外投资了1299家企业，参与招投标项目443 次；财产线索方面有商标信息105条，专利信息48254条；此外企业还拥有行政许可168个。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not result in increased profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting a focus on companies like China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential recovery in refining profits [7][22] - In the potash fertilizer sector, the report recommends Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with a recommendation for Chuanheng Co. due to its strong resource base [23][24] Investment Portfolio - The recommended investment portfolio includes China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yara International, and Chuanheng Co., highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential in the current market environment [24][25]

石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 推荐油气、炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工的投资方向 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出， 低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业 营业收入利润率从 2021 年的 8.03%持续降至 2024 年的 4.85%，2025 年 以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长 10.56%， 行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于 2025 年 6 月开始转负，SW 基础化工行业及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多 个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；7 月"反内卷"政策正式出 台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，农药、石化、 有机硅、PTA 聚酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在制定行业指 导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新产能审批趋严、落后 产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工行业供给过 剩问题将得到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需求方面，伴 ...

证券之星消息，2月2日炼化及贸易板块较上一交易日下跌3.8%，泰山石油领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。炼化及贸易板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 1.11 Z ﮯ | 6.02% | -6116.95万 | -3.31% | -4999.16万 | -2.71% | | 000059 华锦股份 | | 1421.05万 | 4.71% | -606.22万 | -2.01% | -814.83万 | -2.70% | | 002986 宇新股份 | | -302.05万 | -3.58% | -1337.64万 | -15.87% | 1639.69万 | 19.45% | | 603353 和顺石油 | | -420.16万 | -0.85% | -2288.91万 | - ...

| 学门前） | 团 | 商铺 | 有 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 限 | 责 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 任 | 公 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 司 | 华 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研 | 检 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 测 | 陕西省西 | 车 | 集 | 硫含量,苯含量(体积分数),芳烃含量(体积分数),烯烃 | 以上信息由被抽样单位提供并三方确认无异 | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 西安润达森石油有限 | 安市莲湖 | 用 | 团 | 含量(体积分数),氧含量(质量分数),甲醇含量(质量分 | 议，通知书：0005882，封条：01516，锁 | 车用汽油 | 公司星火路加油站 | 区星火路 | 汽 | 有 | 数 ...

——中国石油长庆油采气三厂用心用情践行"领导心里员工"理念综述 中国发展网讯 "张文娟母亲帮忙照看孩子把手扭伤了""周奇娃儿小，媳妇一个人看娃比较忙碌""赵博博 出院了，报销需要的相关单据综合组帮忙理一理，上班后注意观察身体还有哪些不适。"……中国石油 长庆油采气三厂苏里格第五天然气处理厂领导班子的日常叮嘱，字字句句都惦记着员工的急难愁盼，把 关爱落到了细处、暖到了心底。 "领导心里装着员工，成为员工的主心骨；员工心里装着工作，成为工作的顶梁柱。"步入新的一年，采 气三厂领导干部将"领导心里装着员工"的理念转化为一个个暖心举措、一项项务实行动，通过精准化关 怀、常态化落实、情感化联结，让关爱超越期待，让温暖直抵人心，为采气三厂高质量建设现代化示范 采气厂凝聚起同心同向的磅礴力量。 俯身听心声，把关爱想在员工开口前 对员工的关心关爱，从读懂员工的需求开始。自党委书记、副厂长薛连军讲授"领导心里装着员工"专题 党课以来，各级领导干部摒弃"等诉求、靠反映"的被动模式，以日常观察、谈心谈话为抓手，俯身贴近 员工、用心倾听心声，把问题发现在萌芽状态，把关爱做在员工开口之前，让每一份需求都被看见、每 一个难处都被牵挂。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Group 1 - The company Sente Group Co., Ltd. won a procurement project from China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation with a bid amount of 1.3531 million yuan [1][2] - In 2024, Sente Group's operating revenue is projected to be 2.936 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -16.47% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 74 million yuan, showing a net profit growth rate of 27.26% [3] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, the company's operating revenue is reported to be 1.619 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 29.40% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 72 million yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 25.51% [3] - The company operates in the industrial sector, with its main product composition in 2024 being: integrated photovoltaic construction (48.17%), metal enclosure systems (39.25%), soil remediation (10.81%), sound barrier systems (1.41%), and other businesses (0.36%) [3]

每经AI快讯，2月2日，港股"三桶油"持续走弱，中国石油股份(00857.HK)、中国海洋石油(00883.HK)双 双跌超5%，中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)跌超3%。 ...