Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly in light of recent developments in Venezuela and the increase in new ship prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Venezuela's political changes are expected to benefit compliant tanker markets, with a potential increase in oil exports leading to higher demand for Aframax tankers and VLCCs [3][4]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase reported, particularly in gas carriers which rose by 1% [3]. - The report highlights a significant drop in VLCC freight rates, which fell by 36% week-on-week, while the Atlantic market remains relatively stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The report notes that the recent escalation in Venezuela's situation could lead to a 1.4% increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand and a 4.0% increase for Aframax tankers [3][4]. - The average VLCC freight rate was reported at $43,895 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping to $38,690 per day, a decrease of 45% from the previous week [3][4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices have increased by 0.5% to 185.59 points, although they are down 1.85% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. Oil and Product Transport - The LR2-TC1 freight rate increased by 5% to $42,671 per day, supported by tight capacity in previous weeks [3]. - The report indicates a decline in MR average freight rates by 5% to $23,103 per day, with the Atlantic market remaining stable despite the holiday season [3][4]. Air Transport - The report anticipates significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, recommending several airlines for investment [3][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future performance [3][4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with recent data showing a slight decrease in volumes [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors, indicating a positive outlook for both industries [35]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see robust demand growth, driven by increased travel during the New Year holiday, with significant year-on-year increases in both passenger volume and ticket prices. The report suggests a strategic investment during the off-peak season, anticipating a long-term super cycle [3][4]. - In the oil transportation sector, while seasonal price declines are noted, the report emphasizes the potential for future price increases due to ongoing global oil production growth and limited capacity expansion. It recommends a contrarian investment approach during the off-peak period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights a strong increase in travel demand during the New Year holiday, with a 19% year-on-year increase in overall passenger movement from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026. Specifically, civil aviation saw a 13% increase [3][4]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to rise by over 10% year-on-year during the holiday period, despite a projected short-term dip in passenger flow post-holiday [3][4]. - The aviation industry is experiencing high load factors while ticket prices remain at historical lows, suggesting a favorable environment for profitability growth driven by demand recovery and market pricing dynamics [3][4]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report notes that the average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) reached $51,000 in 2025, significantly higher than the $36,000 in 2023-2024, driven by improved capacity utilization and increased oil production from the Middle East and South America [3][4]. - Despite a recent decline in freight rates during the traditional off-peak season, the report maintains a positive outlook for future price increases, supported by ongoing global oil production growth and limited fleet expansion [3][4]. - The report suggests monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly in Venezuela, and recommends increasing positions in companies like COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Shipbuilding Leasing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent performance of the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index and the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela on the oil market, with expectations of a price range for Brent crude oil in early 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.01%, with notable gains from stocks such as Haimer Technology (300084) up 4.26%, Yutong Co. (603036) up 3.10%, and China Petroleum (601857) up 1.56% [1]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) was quoted at 1.19 yuan, with a net subscription of 4 million units during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the regional situation in Venezuela is causing disturbances in the crude oil market, adding uncertainty to supply and demand forecasts [1]. - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a significant accumulation of supply in the near term, projecting Brent crude oil prices to range between $55 and $63 per barrel in January 2026, with potential downward pressure [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China Petroleum (601857), China Petrochemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), collectively accounting for 65.78% of the index [2]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1].

Investment Strategy Overview - The transportation industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, with a weak overall performance in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Key segments like railways and highways have weakened due to style shifts, while logistics, aviation, and shipping have seen some support in the second half of the year from anti-involution and external demand factors, but still lag behind the market index. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to improve driven by anti-involution and major infrastructure projects, with recommendations to focus on (1) improved domestic express delivery competition and benefiting bulk supply chains from upstream price recovery, (2) growth in business and leisure demand potentially returning aviation airports to profitability, and (3) the high prosperity cycle of oil transportation [5][72]. 2025 Review - The transportation industry index showed a stable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1.55% as of December 29, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index. The performance of sub-sectors varied, with aviation airports, shipping ports, railways, and logistics showing cumulative changes of 9.74%, 6.56%, -12.86%, and 6.34% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Aviation Sector - The aviation supply-demand landscape continues to improve, with aircraft utilization recovering to high levels. Domestic civil aviation demand has been steadily increasing, with passenger volume reaching new highs in the second half of 2025. The average daily utilization of aircraft in China was 8.7 hours as of November 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [18][21]. - The average ticket price has stabilized, with a peak passenger load factor of 87.5% in August 2025. The market supply-demand situation is tight, and further tightening could boost ticket prices [23][24]. - The supply side faces challenges with aircraft manufacturers struggling to restore production capacity, with Boeing and Airbus delivering significantly fewer aircraft than pre-pandemic levels. As of 2024, Boeing delivered 348 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 766, both below their respective 2019 levels [25][26]. - The demand side is supported by policy initiatives that have revitalized business activities, with business line passenger volume increasing year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [34][36]. - Cost pressures are alleviated by declining oil prices, with WTI futures at $56.74 per barrel as of December 26, 2025, down 54.13% from peak levels. The strengthening of the RMB also reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens for airlines [40][43]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with oil prices influenced by demand fluctuations and unexpected events. The BDTI index has seen an uptick, indicating potential for improved industry conditions [46][47]. - Short-term demand is driven by significant U.S. strategic petroleum reserve replenishment needs, while long-term demand is expected to stabilize globally. The IEA forecasts a growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand from 2024 to 2030 [49][51]. - The supply side is characterized by tight compliance capacity, with sanctions on shadow fleets leading to a reduction in compliant shipping capacity. This is expected to gradually elevate oil transportation rates [56][57]. Bulk Supply Chain Sector - The bulk supply chain sector is transitioning from traditional trading and logistics models to integrated service provider models, enhancing resource control and operational efficiency. Leading companies are learning from international experiences to improve their market positions [60][63]. - The sector is currently fragmented, with a low market share for leading firms (CR5 at around 5%). As domestic companies consolidate, there is potential for increased market share and profitability [63][64]. - The anti-involution trend is expected to stabilize the PPI, benefiting bulk supply chains as they recover from price declines. The sector is poised to benefit from price rebounds and improved demand conditions [65][66]. Investment Recommendations - Maintain a market-weight rating for the transportation industry, with a focus on improving domestic demand and sector recovery in 2026. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111), Southern Airlines (600029), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [72][74].

为持续引导投资者树立股东意识，积极行使股东权利，提升上市公司投资者关系管理水平，营造理性投资、价值投资、长期投资的市场氛围，9月17日，东 方证券联合上海证券交易所、上海市证券同业公会联合开展"我是股东"——走进沪市上市公司招商轮船（601872）活动顺利举行。东方证券投资者教育基地 组织高净值个人及机构投资者等30余位，实地参观了轮船招商总局，并与公司高管进行了深度交流。 "我是股东"走进上市公司活动自2013年启动以来，已陪伴投资者走过十余年历程，累计组织投资者走进沪市上市公司超过2000家次，仅2024年就达到450家 次，成为资本市场促进投资者与上市公司双向沟通、增强投资者获得感的重要品牌。 在投资者交流会现场，招商轮船董事会秘书孔康，董事会办公室总经理李漫、董事会办公室副总经理刘宇丰、ESG总监蔡晓华等出席活动。招商轮船董秘孔 康先生在致辞中向投资者重点介绍了公司近期在航运主业和ESG工作中取得的亮眼成绩，并强调公司始终将投资者回报和持股体验放在公司价值创造的核心 位置，让广大股东切实分享公司发展的成果。 据了解，招商轮船作为招商局旗下重点发展远洋运输的航运企业，经营和管理着大中华地区历史最悠久、最 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线存在 复航可能性、且仍有较多运力会在年内交付，预计2026年集运运价有较大压力。未来国内经济回暖后航 空业绩具有较大的弹性空间。该行建议低点配置航空板块，风险收益比较优，以时间换空间。目前，快 递反内卷政策的持续性较强，预计有望持续明年春节。得益于反内卷提价，该行预计四季度快递公司的 单票利润环比均将继续提升，业绩弹性有望兑现。 国信证券主要观点如下： 航运 油运方面，由于进入圣诞假期，市场交易清淡，中东线运价高位持续回调，近期美国多次扣押委内瑞拉 附近的油轮，造成市场船只的紧张情绪，短期有事件催化作用。该行认为虽然油运已经逐步进入淡季， 但是当下由于原油运输合规市场需求结构优化，油运供需结构仍然处于中长期的改善周期当中，运价中 枢有望继续上行，继续推荐中远海能、招商轮船。集运方面，短期受春节前传统旺季预期推动，运价仍 在上升通道，而近期马士基旗下货船刚完成了近两年来的首次红海航行，短期红海大规模复航仍然面临 一些挑战，但整体来看2026年复航可能性增加。中长期来看，考虑到当前贸易形势风险仍存、红海航线 存在复航可能性、且 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, indicating a recovery phase supported by supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the aviation sector [1][75]. - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth in business volume of 14.9% and revenue growth of 7.1% from January to November 2025, reflecting a robust demand environment [3][18]. - The shipping industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1900 points, down 10.49% week-on-week, while the CCFI and SCFI indices show slight increases, indicating mixed market conditions [59][61]. Group 2: Aviation Sector Insights - Domestic flight volume reached 86,137 flights during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with a daily average of 12,305 flights, reflecting a 1.42% increase week-on-week and a 1.21% increase year-on-year [12][13]. - Domestic passenger volume for the same period was 12.03 million, up 3.48% week-on-week and 6.04% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [12][13]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights increased by 5.47% week-on-week, while the average bare ticket price rose by 6.08%, suggesting upward pricing pressure in the aviation market [12][13]. Group 3: Express Delivery Sector Analysis - Weekly average collection volume for express delivery was approximately 580 million pieces, with a slight decrease of 1.74% week-on-week, while delivery volume increased by 3.35% [17]. - Year-to-date average collection volume stands at about 544 million pieces per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.98% [17]. - The express delivery industry is characterized by a CR8 index of 87%, indicating a high level of market concentration, with major players like SF Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express showing varied growth rates [21][27]. Group 4: Shipping Sector Developments - The international dry bulk market is facing a decline, with the BDI index down 10.49%, while the international container shipping market shows resilience with the SCFI index up 6.66% [59][61]. - The VLCC-TCE rate in the international oil shipping market decreased by 30.29%, indicating volatility in oil transport pricing [60]. - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in shipping rates driven by demand from the oil and dry bulk sectors, particularly as geopolitical factors may influence pricing dynamics [81]. Group 5: Recommendations and Focus Areas - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, reflecting confidence in the aviation sector's recovery [4][76]. - The report suggests focusing on logistics companies like Milkrun and Hongchuan Wisdom, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in chemical logistics and warehousing [80]. - In the shipping sector, companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the oil and dry bulk market recovery [81].

广东省深圳市福田区中心四路 1-1 号 嘉里建设广场第三座第 28 层 2803-04 室 邮编：518048 电话：（86-755）2587-0765 传真：（86-755）2587-0780 junhesz@junhe.com 北京市君合（深圳）律师事务所 关于招商局能源运输股份有限公司 二〇二五年第三次临时股东会的法律意见书 致：招商局能源运输股份有限公司 北京市君合（深圳）律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受招商局能源运输股 份有限公司（以下简称"贵公司"）的委托，就贵公司二〇二五年第三次临时股东 会（以下简称"本次股东会"）召开的有关事宜，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》 （以下简称"《公司法》"）、中国证券监督管理委员会颁布的《上市公司股东会规 则》（以下简称"《股东会规则》"）等中华人民共和国（为出具本法律意见书之目 的，不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区及台湾地区，以下简称"中国"）现 行法律、法规、规章、规范性文件以及现行《招商局能源运输股份有限公司章程》 （以下简称"《公司章程》"）的有关规定，出具本法律意见书。 为出具本法律意见书之目的，本所委派律师（以下简称"本所律师"）列席了 贵公司本次 ...

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025-065 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 2025年第三次临时股东会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东会召开的时间：2025 年 12 月 29 日 (二)股东会召开的地点：广东省深圳市南山区招商街道五湾社区邮轮大道 5 号太 子湾海纳仓（招商积余大厦）2 楼会议室 (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，会议主持情况等。 会议由公司董事会召集，采用现场会议、现场投票和网络投票相结合的方式 召开，公司董事长冯波鸣先生主持本次股东会。公司部分董事及公司高管通过现 场及网络方式参加会议。会议的召开及表决方式符合《公司法》《上市公司股东 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： 1、出席会议的股东和代理人人数 538 2、出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数（股） 5,834,942,513 3、出席会议的股东所持有表决权股份数占公 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly decreased, while long-distance shipping rates have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) dropped by 40.6% to 1354.35 points as of December 25. Meanwhile, shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe and the US have risen by 10.2% and 9.8% respectively [3][14] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a trial classification for the low-altitude economy, aiming to clarify the concept and boundaries of the industry. This classification includes a framework of "4 categories + 23 subcategories + 65 small categories" [3][15][16] - China's high-speed rail operating mileage has surpassed 50,000 kilometers, marking a significant milestone in global rail infrastructure. This expansion supports logistics networks and enhances regional connectivity [3][21] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - The Baltic Air Freight Index has shown a month-on-month decline, while domestic air freight volumes decreased by 2.03% in November 2025. Conversely, international air freight volumes increased by 14.88% [4][35] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a week-on-week increase of 6.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [39] - In November 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 180.60 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%, while revenue decreased by 3.70% [52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights opportunities in the low-altitude economy, road and rail sectors, and e-commerce logistics [5]