今日重磅：2025年12月18日，海南自贸港将迎来历史性时刻——全岛封关运作正式启动！国务院新闻办 公室今日宣布，封关后"零关税"商品税目比例将从21%跃升至74%，加工增值超30%的岛内商品可免关 税进入内地，跨境资产管理试点同步破冰百亿规模。这场涉及贸易、金融、旅游的深度改革，标志着我 国最高水平开放形态加速成型。财政部、海关总署等五部门联合发布配套政策，明确"一线放开、二线 管住"监管框架，内地游客更可畅享免税购物扩容升级。海南省委书记冯飞强调，封关政策已全面就 绪，将打造"中国企业出海总部基地+境外企业入华总部基地"双枢纽。 政策连发！五大核心利好重塑自贸港格局 零关税+加工增值：财政部明确封关后进口"零关税"制度体系确立，6600个税目商品纳入负面清单管 理，享惠主体扩大至全岛企事业单位，产业链自由流动障碍全面破除。海关总署同步优化加工增值政 策，企业享惠门槛降低30%，岛内产业集群效应呼之欲出。 保税维修开放：商务部率先对38类商品开放保税维修业务，取消60类旧机电进口许可，为高端制造企业 打开万亿级市场空间。 核心概念股： 海南瑞泽（002596）：海南本地水泥龙头，市占率超 40%。海南自贸港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Duty Free Group's new subsidiary, Chengdu Duty Free Goods Co., Ltd., indicates a strategic expansion in the retail sector, particularly in the duty-free market in Chengdu, China [1] Company Summary - Company Name: Chengdu Duty Free Goods Co., Ltd. - Legal Representative: Ma Junping - Registered Capital: 70 million RMB - Shareholding Structure: - China Duty Free Group: 91% - Chengdu Xingjin Commercial Investment Service Co., Ltd.: 9% [1][1] Business Scope - The company’s business activities include: - Sales of duty-free goods - Alcohol sales - Food sales and internet sales of food - Retail of tobacco products and pharmaceuticals - Import and export of goods and technology - Sales of daily necessities, textiles, home appliances, communication devices, and various retail items including cosmetics, jewelry, and sports equipment - Advertising design and agency services - Human resources services (excluding labor dispatch) - Conference and exhibition services - Non-residential real estate leasing - Business agency services [1][1] Operational Details - Address: 1st and 2nd Floor, Renheng Plaza, No. 1, South People's Road, Jinjiang District, Chengdu, Sichuan Province - Company Type: Other limited liability company - Business Duration: Until July 22, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter - Registration Authority: Jinjiang Market Supervision Administration [1][1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance across various sectors within the social services industry, particularly in tourism and hospitality, driven by changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions [3][4]. - The hotel industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a more competitive environment, with a notable increase in the number of hotels and rooms available [3][4]. - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to grow due to global economic recovery and consumption upgrades, despite some companies facing revenue declines [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is projected to achieve a 22% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in net profit for H1 2025. Huangshan Tourism is expected to generate revenue of 911 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 13% [3][4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 7.48% decrease in revenue, with a net loss of 2 million yuan, marking a 110% decline [3][4]. - Tianmu Lake is expected to report a 5% revenue increase to 277 million yuan and a 9% rise in net profit to 58 million yuan [3][4]. Hotel Industry - Huazhu is expected to generate 11.66 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 2% increase, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, up 18% [3][4]. - Shoulv Hotel is projected to see a 4% decline in revenue to 3.59 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 9% to 391 million yuan [3][4]. - Atour Hotel anticipates a 30% revenue increase to 4.24 billion yuan and a 16% rise in net profit to 653 million yuan [3][4]. Exhibition & Human Resource Services - The report notes increasing competition in the domestic market, with companies like Miao Exhibition expected to achieve a 9% revenue increase to 284 million yuan, despite a significant drop in net profit [3][4]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to see a 6% revenue increase to 23.29 billion yuan, with a substantial 81% rise in net profit to 785 million yuan [3][4]. Duty-Free Sector - China Duty-Free is expected to report a 9% decline in revenue to 28.58 billion yuan and a 14% decrease in net profit to 2.84 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wangfujing is projected to see an 18% decline in revenue to 4.95 billion yuan, with a 73% drop in net profit to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: 1. Exhibition and events: Lansheng Co., Lisheng Sports, Miao Exhibition 2. Human resources: Beijing Human Resources, Keri International 3. Tourism: Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, Tianmu Lake 4. Hotels: Shoulv Hotel, Huazhu, Atour 5. Duty-free: China Duty-Free, Wangfujing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the first Disney pop-up store, "Stitch's Adventure," at CDF Sanya International Duty-Free City marks the beginning of a consumption boom during the summer tourism peak, attracting a large number of consumers with its unique offerings and popular IP merchandise [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Engagement - The giant inflatable figure of Stitch on a surfboard in the pop-up store creates an engaging and whimsical atmosphere, drawing visitors into a fantasy world [3]. - The store features a variety of merchandise centered around beloved Disney IPs, including limited edition items exclusive to Sanya, which ignites consumer enthusiasm and sets the stage for the summer shopping season [3][6]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - CDF Sanya International Duty-Free City has successfully combined the "first pop-up store economy" with emotional consumption, leveraging the unique attributes of limited edition products to enhance consumer appeal [6]. - The company aims to transition from traditional retail to value experience creation by incorporating emotionally resonant IPs, thereby crafting new consumer experiences that are tangible and engaging [6]. Group 3: Market Trends - The introduction of the Disney pop-up store is part of a broader strategy to attract diverse consumer groups and fill the gap in the high-end trendy toy market in Hainan through differentiated positioning [6]. - The upcoming "Hainan International Duty-Free Shopping Festival" will further enhance the shopping experience with a combination of subsidies and various duty-free activities, promoting a composite consumption environment of "IP trendy toys + duty-free fashion" [7].

Core Insights - The retail market is entering a phase of stock competition, with homogenization becoming a core bottleneck for industry development. The operational strategy of China Duty Free Group (CDFG) demonstrates strong anti-cyclical and competitive resilience through a commercial ecosystem built on global direct sourcing networks, deep brand bundling, and exclusive product matrices [1] Group 1: Supply Chain and Competitive Advantages - The depth and breadth of the supply chain are fundamental to differentiating retail enterprises. CDFG has established direct cooperation with over 1,500 international brands, supported by eight customs-regulated logistics centers, ensuring full-chain quality control. This model provides three core advantages: direct sourcing eliminates potential risks from intermediaries, ensuring 100% authenticity; large-scale direct procurement grants strong bargaining power, allowing competitive pricing while ensuring genuine products; and solid vendor relationships are essential for obtaining exclusive distribution rights and limited products, laying the foundation for differentiated product strategies [2] Group 2: First Store Economy and Brand Attraction - CDFG's strategic layout focuses on the "first store economy," transforming retail space into a scarce resource to attract targeted customer traffic and provide brands with immersive physical storytelling. Notable examples include the introduction of the first double-decker flagship stores for Coach and Estée Lauder in Sanya, and the first innovative immersive whiskey museum in Haikou. In 2024, CDFG successfully introduced over 200 international and domestic brands, with 98 brands expected to open in Hainan, covering diverse sectors such as jewelry, skincare, fashion, and dining [4] Group 3: Exclusive Product Launch Strategy - CDFG employs a high-frequency "exclusive launch" strategy to ensure uniqueness and freshness on its shelves. This includes co-developing customized versions, exclusive sets, and global limited products with brands, effectively avoiding traditional price competition. Examples include exclusive sets with Estée Lauder and collaborations with brands like Qeelin and 周大福. The recent fifth CDFG Watch Festival featured over 50 brands and more than 7,000 products, with over 30 brands making their exclusive debut in Hainan, targeting the high-end watch collector market [5] Group 4: Platform Empowerment and Experience Innovation - CDFG's strategy extends beyond products to platform empowerment and experience innovation. The company leverages its global channel advantages to assist domestic brands like Fila and Li Ning in going global, enriching the duty-free sector while enhancing its platform value. Events like the "CDFG Hainan Duty-Free Shopping Festival" and collaborations with cultural IPs such as concerts create a new shopping experience that combines entertainment and consumption [9] Group 5: Commitment to Quality and Member Value - In an industry facing homogenization anxiety, member trust is a valuable asset. CDFG adheres to strict quality standards and brand positioning, aiming to provide members with the highest quality products and top international brands. By deepening strategic partnerships with leading brands, CDFG meets members' pursuit of unique value and exclusive experiences, forming a robust ecosystem that is difficult to replicate in the short term, thus leading the development direction of the tourism retail industry in China and globally [11]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a city duty-free shop in Guangzhou is expected to enhance the local economy, fill the gap in the city's duty-free offerings, and support the development of an international consumption center [1][2]. Location - The selected location for the duty-free shop at the International Financial Center in Zhujiang New Town has received positive feedback and is expected to drive consumer traffic due to its proximity to commercial hubs and tourist attractions [3][4]. Products - The duty-free shop will focus on promoting domestic brands and local specialties, aligning with national policies to support the sale of domestic products and enhance Guangzhou's cultural influence [5][6]. Operations - The operational structure of the duty-free shop involves a partnership between China Duty Free Group and local state-owned enterprises, which is anticipated to address challenges such as customer source diversification and resource integration [6][7]. Services - To attract international tourists, the city needs to enhance service efficiency and create a seamless shopping experience, including better integration with local tourist attractions and improved digital services for tax refunds [8][9].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 55 listed companies in the cultural tourism sector were analyzed, with 31 experiencing an increase in market value and 24 seeing a decline [3][18] - The highest market value increases were recorded by Wanda Hotel Development at 173.65%, Feiyang Group at 140.7%, and Jinma Amusement at 92.68% [3][4] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in Lujing Technology at -48.03%, Lingnan Holdings at -43.34%, and Yingxin Development at -26.03% [6][7] Market Value Changes - As of June 30, 2025, the total market value of Wanda Hotel Development was 2.699 billion, while Feiyang Group and Jinma Amusement had market values of 0.126 billion and 4.521 billion respectively [4][7] - Ctrip led the market with a total value of 274.37 billion, followed by China Duty Free at 124.57 billion and Huazhu at 74.53 billion [8][9] - The overall market value of the remaining 52 companies was 390 billion, indicating a significant concentration of value among the top three companies [8] Sector Performance - The cultural tourism sector showed a mixed performance, with scenic area companies generally performing well, such as Haichang Ocean Park with a 39.1% increase and Zhangjiajie with a 28.55% increase [12][13] - Hotel companies also showed varied results, with Huazhu leading at 745.31 billion, while Atour saw a 20.41% increase [14][15] - Online travel companies experienced declines, with Ctrip and Tuniu dropping by 14.94% and 17.79% respectively, while Tongcheng saw a modest increase of 6.08% [16][17] Company-Specific Developments - Wanda Hotel Development's significant increase in market value was attributed to the sale of its subsidiary Wanda Hotel Management for 2.5 billion, which is expected to improve its financial structure [6][7] - Lujing Technology's decline was linked to negative media coverage regarding its management capabilities in scenic area operations [7][8] - The overall performance of cultural tourism companies reflects ongoing operational pressures, with some companies like Fosun Tourism Culture delisting from the Hong Kong stock market [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.24 CNY [2][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a sales recovery in Q2 2025, supported by the implementation of departure tax refunds and the opening of new city stores [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 2.24 CNY, 2.60 CNY, and 3.10 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to slower recovery in duty-free sales and lower-than-expected customer traffic [2] - The company is expanding its channels with new stores opening in Tianjin and enhancing customer engagement through innovative retail experiences [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61,865 million CNY, 67,993 million CNY, and 74,120 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 9.5%, 9.9%, and 9.0% [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 32.0% in 2024 to 32.8% in 2027, while net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.6% in 2024 to 8.7% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 7.8% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that service consumption has become a core strategy for expanding domestic demand in 2025, with significant potential for growth in China compared to developed economies like the US and Japan [4][8][28] - The report highlights that China's per capita GDP has surpassed $10,000, marking a critical window for the rapid development of service consumption, particularly in entertainment and leisure sectors [4][30][32] - Key measures to boost service consumption include increasing residents' income, enhancing leisure time, and encouraging high-quality service supply [4][8][28] Group 2 - The tea beverage industry is identified as having substantial growth potential, with a rational increase in store numbers and a shift towards emotional value for consumers, particularly among younger demographics [9] - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on government subsidies and an increase in chain operations, indicating a structural differentiation between mass and high-end markets [10] - Meituan is noted for its strategic investments in ecosystem development, maintaining a competitive edge despite short-term market fluctuations [11] Group 3 - The education sector is experiencing a concentration of market share among high-quality institutions, driven by regulatory changes and a persistent demand for K12 education [12] - The human resources industry is undergoing structural recovery, with a focus on AI applications to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [13] - The tourism sector is benefiting from policy-driven support and accelerated industry consolidation, with a notable increase in domestic travel demand [14] Group 4 - The hotel industry is facing a slowdown in supply growth, with leading hotel groups adjusting their operations to maintain competitive performance [14] - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in average transaction values and a narrowing decline in sales, supported by product diversification and new channel expansions [15]

Group 1: China Duty Free Group - China Duty Free Group, established in 1984 and under China Tourism Group, is a leading global travel retailer with a dominant position in the Chinese duty-free market, leveraging its all-channel duty-free license and a significant market share in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales, expected to increase by 2 percentage points in 2024 [1] - The company collaborates with over 1,400 prestigious brands globally, including luxury names like Estée Lauder, Lancôme, COACH, Prada, and Gucci, as well as domestic giants like Moutai and Fenjiu [1] - The duty-free store at Tianjin Binhai International Airport has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering various personal consumer goods, continuously optimizing the shopping experience by introducing new product categories like sunglasses [1] Group 2: JuLing Supply Chain - JuLing Supply Chain is a leading domestic WMS (Warehouse Management System) provider, offering an end-to-end digital supply chain solution for China Duty Free Group, which operates over 200 duty-free stores [2] - The company has innovatively designed standardized two-dimensional barcode labels for various operational processes, enhancing efficiency and ensuring real-time inventory accuracy even in extreme conditions [2] - JuLing's WMS integrates seamlessly with over 50 existing commercial systems of China Duty Free Group, supporting customs transparency and real-time tracking of cross-border logistics [3] Group 3: Digital Supply Chain Solutions - JuLing's logistics management software utilizes a modular architecture and advanced technologies like AIoT and 5G, aiming to transform inventory visibility, operational automation, and intelligent decision-making for China Duty Free Group [3] - The company has accumulated over 20 years of industry best practices, applying its expertise across various sectors, including manufacturing, biomedicine, new retail, and international logistics [8] - JuLing provides a comprehensive range of software products and hardware integration solutions, including OMS, WMS, TMS, and automated equipment like AGVs and automated storage systems [6][7]