2025 年 03 月 13 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 10100.38 | 11682.81 | 13099.80 | 14586.50 | | 收入增长率% | 28.05 | 15.67 | 12.13 | 11.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3136.04 | 3588.80 | 3941.37 | 4386.43 | | 利润增速% | 25.30 | 14.44 | 9.82 | 11.29 | | 毛利率% | 78.34 | 76.09 | 75.50 | 75.00 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 2.52 | 2.88 | 3.16 | 3.52 | | PE | 21.82 | 19.07 | 17.36 | 15.60 | | PB | 5.15 | 4.40 | 3.51 | 2.87 | | PS | 6.77 | 5.86 | 5.22 | 4.69 | 公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 看好今世缘的 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key reasons for optimism regarding the company: a more rational competitive landscape in the province, the emerging value of the V series products, and sustained growth in the out-of-province market [6][9]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023A: 10,100.38 - 2024E: 11,682.81 - 2025E: 13,099.80 - 2026E: 14,586.50 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2023A: 28.05 - 2024E: 15.67 - 2025E: 12.13 - 2026E: 11.35 - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2023A: 3,136.04 - 2024E: 3,588.80 - 2025E: 3,941.37 - 2026E: 4,386.43 - EPS (CNY): - 2023A: 2.52 - 2024E: 2.88 - 2025E: 3.16 - 2026E: 3.52 - P/E Ratios: - 2023A: 21.82 - 2024E: 19.07 - 2025E: 17.36 - 2026E: 15.60 [2][29]. Company Overview and Rationale for Recommendation - The company is a leading liquor producer in Jiangsu Province, with a strong brand history and a diversified product line that includes the "Guoyuan" brand and its various series [8][9]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment and is expected to benefit from a more rational competitive landscape, particularly against its main competitor, Yanghe [6][9]. - The V series products are gaining traction, indicating potential for upward price adjustments and increased market share [6][23]. - The out-of-province market is also showing promising growth, driven by enhanced brand recognition and strategic market adjustments [6][27].

| | | [Table_Title] 行稳百亿路，缘启新篇章 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn ——今世缘（603369）公司深度研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 今世缘 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 3.7% | | 沪深 300 | 1.0% | -1.4% | 11.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/10 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 53.44 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 35.35-61.05 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 66,628.99 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 66,628.99 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 124,680.00 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 124,680.00 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 286.07 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 0.73 | 相关报告 《今世缘（603 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company focuses on expanding its market share in the domestic market while strategically penetrating external markets, particularly emphasizing the development of its V series products [1][2] - The company aims to enhance its product structure and strengthen its brand influence, particularly in the 100-500 RMB price range, while also pushing for growth in the 500-800 RMB segment [1][2] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Strategy - The company is concentrating on improving market share in various cities within the province, with organizational restructuring to enhance brand operations [2] - The company plans to focus on core price segments based on regional differences to optimize market penetration [2] External Market Expansion - The company is leveraging its core product, the "Four Open," to expand into surrounding regions and integrate operations in the Yangtze River Delta [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11,656 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.4%, and net profit of 3,583 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [5] - The adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 2.87, 3.14, and 3.47 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 15 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company focuses on expanding its market share in the domestic market while strategically growing its presence in external markets. It aims to enhance its product offerings in the 100-500 RMB price range and increase the influence of its V3 product in the 600 RMB segment, targeting a 30% sales growth for V3 in 2024 [1][2] - The company has shown strong sales performance, with V6 hosting nearly 3,000 events and achieving over 100 million RMB in sales, representing a 72% growth [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 being 2.87, 3.14, and 3.47 RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [3] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The company is focusing on the 100-500 RMB price range in Jiangsu province, maintaining a leading market share and planning to expand its product lines such as淡雅, 对开, and 四开 [1] - It is also working on enhancing its presence in the 500-800 RMB price range, particularly for the V3 product [1] Regional Strategy - The company is refining its operations within the province to reduce market share disparities among cities and is implementing a structural reform to improve brand operations [2] - For external markets, it is leveraging its core product 四开 to penetrate surrounding areas and strengthen partnerships, with stable growth observed in Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 11,656 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.4%, and a net profit of 3,583 million RMB, reflecting a 14.3% increase [5] - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 2.50 RMB in 2023 to 3.47 RMB in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, with positive feedback from channels indicating a robust growth trajectory for the year. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate that exceeds the industry average [8] - The company aims to enhance its market share both domestically and in external markets, with a focus on strategic channel development and product positioning. The goal for 2025 is to achieve revenue growth in external markets that surpasses domestic growth [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from a stable growth in revenue and profit, with a clear growth path supported by effective marketing strategies and improved operational efficiency [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,100 million RMB in 2023 to 15,413 million RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.05%, 17.15%, 12.32%, and 15.97% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,136 million RMB in 2023 to 4,803 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 25.30%, 15.03%, 11.83%, and 19.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.50 RMB in 2023 to 3.85 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in earnings per share [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 50.23 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 62,626.77 million RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.09 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 13.04 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation over time [1][5] Operational Insights - The company has successfully maintained a healthy inventory level and has effectively managed channel pricing to stabilize profits. This strategic approach is expected to enhance revenue visibility for the year [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and pricing strategy to capture market share across different price segments, particularly in the domestic market [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, with positive feedback from channels indicating a robust growth trajectory for the year. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate that exceeds the industry average [8] - The company aims to enhance its market share both domestically and in external markets, with a focus on strategic channel development and product positioning. The goal for 2025 is to achieve a revenue growth rate in external markets that surpasses that of domestic markets [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue and profit growth, with a clear growth path driven by market share gains and effective cost management strategies [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,100 million RMB in 2023 to 15,413 million RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.05%, 17.15%, 12.32%, and 15.97% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,136 million RMB in 2023 to 4,803 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 25.30%, 15.03%, 11.83%, and 19.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.50 RMB in 2024 to 3.85 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in earnings per share [1] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through a structured approach to channel development, targeting key markets and price segments to improve its competitive positioning [8] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in both domestic and external markets, with a strategic emphasis on optimizing its product mix and pricing strategy [8]

Summary of Jinshiyuan Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinshiyuan - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - During the Spring Festival, Jinshiyuan's high-end product V3, priced between 500-600 RMB, showed excellent sales performance in cities like Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou, indicating a significant upward trend. This success is attributed to a series of reform measures rather than competitors' mistakes or market space availability [3][4] Organizational Reforms - Since 2022, under Chairman Lv Xin's leadership, Jinshiyuan has restructured its management from a regional division to a departmental division, including Microchip, International, Financial, and Efficient Sales departments. This focused brand operation has effectively driven stable growth in the Guoyuan product series [4][5] Marketing Innovations - Jinshiyuan has innovated its marketing model by forming strategic alliances through group purchasing, particularly in Yangzhou, which stabilizes sales and enhances dealer cooperation. This model is especially effective for high-end and new products in emerging markets [4][6] Human Resource Strategies - The company has accelerated the promotion of leadership and external recruitment since 2022, increasing sales personnel from approximately 800-1,000 to around 1,500. This investment in human resources has significantly improved overall operational capabilities [7][9] Pricing Strategy - Jinshiyuan employs a gradual price increase strategy to maintain price stability for its main products, such as Guoan 4K, which has remained stable since 2022. This approach has bolstered dealer confidence and consumer trust, avoiding adverse effects from price fluctuations [10][11] High-End Strategy Progress - The high-end strategy is showing initial success, with the V3 product becoming a mainstream choice for business consumption in certain regions of Jiangsu. This success provides a strong foundation for extending more high-end product lines [12] Market Conditions in Jiangsu - Jiangsu's market is crucial for baijiu companies due to its large scale and stable structure. Jinshiyuan's solid foundation in this market allows it to focus on nurturing new and high-end products [13] Prospects in Out-of-Province Markets - Jinshiyuan is expected to perform well in out-of-province markets by 2025, having clarified its strategy and improved brand recognition among dealers. The company has laid a solid foundation for expansion, aiming for significant breakthroughs in the coming years [14][15] Brand Promotion and Development - The company tailors its promotional strategies based on product characteristics, ensuring the survival of dealers while enhancing brand image through flexible marketing tactics [16][17] Strategic Direction - Jinshiyuan's strategic direction is now clear, with sufficient reserves in organization and personnel training to support its expansion beyond Jiangsu. The focus on high-end product cultivation and investment is expected to yield significant results in 2025 [18] Investment Recommendation - The company is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its stable fundamentals and new growth logic in high-end products and out-of-province expansion. With a current valuation of approximately 15 times earnings, it is recommended for both absolute and relative returns in the baijiu sector [19]

江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 详式权益变动报告书 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 详式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称：江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 股票上市地点：上海证券交易所 股票简称：今世缘 股票代码：603369.SH 信息披露义务人：今世缘集团有限公司 住所：涟水县高沟镇涟高路1号 通讯地址：涟水县高沟镇涟高路1号 股份变动性质：股份增加（集中竞价） 签署日期：二〇二五年一月十七日 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 详式权益变动报告书 信息披露义务人声明 本声明所述的词语或简称与本详式权益变动报告书"释义"部分所定义的 词语或简称具有相同的含义。 一、本报告书系信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人 民共和国证券法》《上市公司收购管理办法》《公开发行证券的公司信息披露 内容与格式准则第15号—权益变动报告书》《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内 容与格式准则第16号—上市公司收购报告书》及相关的法律法规、部门规章、 规范性文件编写。 二、依据法律法规、部门规章、规范性文件的规定，本报告书已全面披露 信息披露义务人在江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司中拥有权益的股份变动情况。 截至本报告书签署日，除本报告书披露的持股信息 ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-003 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持计划进展暨权益变动的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 首次增持情况：2025 年 1 月 16 日，江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）控股股东今世缘集团有限公司（以下简称"今世缘集团"）通过上海证 券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式首次增持公司 114,500 股（以下简称"首次 增持"），本次增持总金额为人民币 4,997,773 元（不含交易费用）。 首次增持前，今世缘集团持有公司股份561,049,038 股，占公司回购股份注销 实施前总股本125450 万股的44.7229%；首次增持后，今世缘集团持有公司股份 561,163,538 股，占公司回购股份注销实施前总股本125450 万股的44.7320%，占公司 回购股份注销实施后总股本1,246,800,037 股的45.0083%。 本次权益变动系公司回购股份注销实施及控股股东实施增持综合影响所致 ...