Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3884.87 points, above the six-month moving average, with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 21,403.55 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 47 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Haosheng Electronics (12.03%) - Senqilin (4.06%) - Shuguang Co., Ltd. (3.72%) [1] Stock Performance Data - The following stocks have notable performance metrics: - Haosheng Electronics: Today's increase of 14.32%, turnover rate of 7.33%, six-month average price of 21.38 yuan, latest price at 23.95 yuan [1] - Senqilin: Today's increase of 5.90%, turnover rate of 6.52%, six-month average price of 20.00 yuan, latest price at 20.81 yuan [1] - Shuguang Co., Ltd.: Today's increase of 5.15%, turnover rate of 10.89%, six-month average price of 3.74 yuan, latest price at 3.88 yuan [1]

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年08月26日 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:44.3元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】今世缘（603369.SH）*年报点评*目标 制定理性，业绩稳健增长*推荐20250430 【平安证券】今世缘（603369.SH）*季报点评*主动 控制节奏，成长势能仍在*推荐20241031 证券分析师 事项： 今世缘发布2025年中报，1H25实现营收70亿元，同比-4.8%，归母净利22.3 亿元，同比-9.5%；2Q25实现营收19亿元，同比-29.7%，归母净利5.8亿元， 同比-37.1%。 今世缘(603369.SH) 理性出清，轻装前行 平安观点： 公 司 半 年 报 点 评 券 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 BVG933 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% and 37% respectively, indicating a need for channel adjustments and a reflection of sales performance [1][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.95 billion and 2.23 billion respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.8% and 9.5% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of 1.85 billion and 580 million respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 29.7% and 37.1% [1] - Cash collection for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year, leading to a negative operating cash flow of -352 million [1] Product Performance - The performance of different product categories showed mixed results, with Special A+ and Special A categories being relatively stable, while the Opening category faced slight pressure [2] - For H1 2025, revenue by product category was as follows: Special A+ 4.31 billion, Special A 2.23 billion, A 230 million, B 80 million, and CD 30 million, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +1%, -10%, -6%, and -39% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, the year-on-year performance for product categories was: Special A+ -32%, Special A -28%, A -40%, B -13%, and CD -42% [2] Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 1.61 billion and 190 million respectively, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 18% [2] - Specific regions such as Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou experienced significant year-on-year declines, with Suzhou showing a slight improvement in market share [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 31.6%, down 3.7 percentage points [3] - The increase in sales and management expense ratios contributed to the decline in profitability, with sales expense ratio at 19.0% and management expense ratio at 5.6% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a narrowing of the decline in performance and sales in the second half of the year, particularly during the peak seasons [1][3] - The company has slightly adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.37, 2.54, and 2.73 yuan, maintaining a strong recommendation for investment [3]

值得注意的是，今世缘同时是苏超的官方战略合作伙伴。今年5月苏超正式开赛并迅速走红，今世缘品 牌也在全国范围内获得了巨大的曝光量。但从业绩表现来看，作为江苏区域酒企，其在江苏省内实现收 入62.5亿元，同比下降6.1%；主要淮安、南京和苏中大区分别下滑4.3%、7.9%和0.2%。 今年夏天江苏省城市足球联赛（以下简称"苏超"）的爆火，让区域体育IP成为新热点，作为苏超赞助商 的江苏酒企今世缘（603369.SH）也迎来了一波"泼天的流量"，但其第二季度业绩却出现两位数下滑。 在业内看来，在市场竞争加剧的背景下，名酒对区域酒企的挤压正日趋严重，后者面临更大的挑战。 财报显示，2025年上半年，今世缘实现营业收入69.5亿元，较上年同期下降约4.8%；归母净利润22.3亿 元，同比降幅约9.5%。尤其是第二季度业绩明显下滑，单季营收18.5亿元，同比下降29.7%；归母净利 润5.9亿元，同比减少37.1%。而上年同期，今世缘第二季度收入和净利润还分别实现了21.5%和16.9%的 同比增长。 从产品结构来看，上半年今世缘售价300元以上价格带产品实现收入43.1亿元，同比下降7.4%；100元到 300元价格带 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the regional liquor industry is intensifying, leading to significant challenges for local enterprises like Jiangsu's Jinsiyuan, which, despite increased brand exposure from sponsoring the Suzhou Super League, reported a substantial decline in second-quarter performance [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jinsiyuan's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.95 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4.8% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.23 billion yuan, down about 9.5% [2]. - In the second quarter, Jinsiyuan's revenue fell to 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.7%, while net profit dropped to 590 million yuan, a decrease of 37.1% [2]. - The sales of products priced above 300 yuan generated 4.31 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, while products priced between 100 and 300 yuan saw a slight increase of 0.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Environment - The overall industry is experiencing a downturn, with many regional liquor companies reporting significant declines in performance during the second quarter [3]. - Notable competitors like Jiu Gui Jiu and Kou Zi Jiao reported revenue declines of 56.6% and 48.5% respectively in the same period, highlighting the broader challenges faced by regional brands [3]. - The decline in high-end product sales is attributed to a decrease in consumer demand and a drop in market prices for leading brands, which further constricts the market space for regional liquor companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining growth through strategic market expansion and product upgrades despite external pressures [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 6.95 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.22 billion respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 4.8%, 9.5%, and 9.1% [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 1.85 billion, 0.58 billion, and 0.58 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 29.7%, 37.1%, and 36.5% [1]. Product and Market Performance - The core product line has been upgraded, and new products are being introduced, with the mass-market products represented by the "Te A" category performing well under pressure [1][2]. - In H1 2025, revenue from "Te A" and above accounted for 95.1% of total revenue, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [2]. - The company is focusing on regional market penetration, with H1 2025 revenue from domestic markets down 6.1% and from external markets up 4.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 73.4%, while the sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 14.8% [2]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 32.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in the Jiangsu market and steady expansion in external markets, with a long-term growth potential [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward, with expected revenues of 11.07 billion, 11.64 billion, and 12.39 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -4.1%, +5.1%, and +6.4% [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 54.12 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on growth opportunities in both domestic and external markets [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.00 points, above the six-month moving average, with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 16993.57 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking the Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 46 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today, with notable stocks including Shuguang Co., Zhengdan Co., and Dongbai Group, showing divergence rates of 4.78%, 4.68%, and 2.88% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include Jinjiang Hotels, Mingchen Health, and Spring Airlines [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - The top three stocks with the highest divergence rates are: - Shuguang Co. (600303) with a price increase of 6.23%, turnover rate of 9.78%, six-month line at 3.74 yuan, latest price at 3.92 yuan, and a divergence rate of 4.78% [1] - Zhengdan Co. (300641) with a price increase of 6.11%, turnover rate of 6.57%, six-month line at 24.40 yuan, latest price at 25.54 yuan, and a divergence rate of 4.68% [1] - Dongbai Group (600693) with a price increase of 3.53%, turnover rate of 5.38%, six-month line at 6.27 yuan, latest price at 6.45 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.88% [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Tianbang Food (002124) with a price increase of 3.30%, turnover rate of 4.80%, six-month line at 3.05 yuan, latest price at 3.13 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.74% [1] - *ST Haiyuan (002529) with a price increase of 5.06%, turnover rate of 1.38%, six-month line at 6.68 yuan, latest price at 6.85 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.53% [1] - Senqilin (002984) with a price increase of 4.22%, turnover rate of 4.06%, six-month line at 20.00 yuan, latest price at 20.48 yuan, and a divergence rate of 2.43% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, down 29.7%, and net profit was 580 million yuan, down 37.1% [2][7]. - The report indicates that the company is actively managing its inventory and has begun a phase of destocking, which is expected to relieve pressure in the coming year. The company is focusing on deepening market penetration in provincial areas and expanding its presence in key markets outside the province [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company has increased its marketing and promotional expenses, which has impacted profitability. The gross margin for Q2 was 72.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. The net profit forecast for 2025 is 2.89 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 25.71 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.6% [3][7].

2025年8月26日，今世缘（603369.SH）发布2025年中报。 公司营业总收入为69.51亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期营业总收入减少3.53亿元，同比较去年同期下降4.84%。归母净利润为22.29 亿元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期归母净利润减少2.33亿元，同比较去年同期下降9.46%。经营活动现金净流入为10.75亿元，在已披 露的同业公司中排名第2，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入减少1.71亿元，同比较去年同期下降13.75%。 公司最新资产负债率为33.41%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第8，较上季度资产负债率增加1.46个百分点，较去年同期资产负债率增加2.69个百分点。 公司最新毛利率为73.41%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第4，较上季度毛利率减少0.22个百分点，较去年同期毛利率减少0.38个百分点。最新ROE为 13.77%，在已披露的同业公司中排名第2，较去年同期ROE减少3.20个百分点。 公司摊薄每股收益为1.79元，在已披露的同业公司中排名第3，较去年同报告期摊薄每股收益减少0.19元，同比较去年同期下降9.46%。 公司最新总资产周转率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively managing its growth rate to alleviate pressure and strengthen its development foundation [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 10,594 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.24% [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is updated to 2,983 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline of 12.56% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in the short term while aiming for breakthroughs in provincial markets [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,100 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.05% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,136 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.30% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.39 yuan, down from 2.74 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.51 times [1] Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 44.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of 55,233.24 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.41 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 2,867 million yuan [8]