Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions against Iran are intensifying, and OPEC has reached a consensus to increase production, indicating upward potential for the oil tanker sector [2][7] - The express delivery business volume has shown significant year-on-year growth, with a reported increase of 21.5% in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The U.S. government has announced additional sanctions against Iran, targeting several individuals, entities, and vessels involved in Iranian oil exports, including 10 VLCC supertankers, which constitutes about 20% of the global tanker fleet [7] - OPEC has agreed to gradually increase production starting April, aiming to release 2.2 million barrels per day [7] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.09 – 03.15) Aviation Data - Domestic flight volume for the week was 84,029 flights, averaging 12,004 flights per day, a slight decrease of 0.10% week-on-week and 0.50% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.43 million, a 0.05% increase week-on-week and a 2.12% increase year-on-year [11] - The average domestic ticket price decreased by 3.49% week-on-week and 6.31% year-on-year [11] Express Delivery Data - For the week of March 3-9, the average daily collection volume was approximately 555 million pieces, a 3.99% increase from the previous week [17] - Year-to-date, the average daily collection volume is about 495 million pieces, reflecting a 36.00% increase year-on-year [17] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue up by 13.8% [3] Shipping Data - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping was reported at 1,517 points, a 20% increase week-on-week [48] - The VLCC-TCE rate was $38,329 per day, a 3% decrease week-on-week [49] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Highway, and China Eastern Airlines, among others, as part of the investment strategy [4]

中金公司 红海复航不确定性增加，中国集运公司有望补涨 红海护航的不确定性对市场预期有何影响？ 红海护航的不确定性较高，从第二轮停火协议推进的曲折性以及胡塞武装组织 重新攻打以色列船舶等事件可以看出这一点。根据克拉克森的数据，截至 2 月 底，红海区域整体船舶和集装箱船舶通行量分别下降了 5 艘和 4 艘。红海不能 如期复航的概率在提升，因为胡塞武装组织态度才真正决定红海通行是否安全。 此外，从保险角度来看，需要联合战争险委员会将红海区域风险等级从当前高 风险地区下调，否则传动仍需面临较高保险成本。因此，我们认为红海复航会 面临很多不确定性，市场预期也会反复变化。 美国 301 调查可能带来哪些影响？ 20250312 摘要 Q&A 近期中国集运公司股价表现如何，与海外公司相比有何差异？ 自 1 月 19 日加沙停火协议生效以来，国内集运公司的股价普遍跑输于海外公司。 具体来看，海丰国际、中国远洋海控和东方海外的股价均出现个位数跌幅，而 马士基、ZIM 以及台湾和日韩的一些集运公司的股价则上涨了 10%到 20%。这种 • 红海护航不确定性增加，胡塞武装态度及保险成本制约复航，市场预期反 复。克拉克森数据显示， ...

中谷物流（603565.SH）：行业低谷彰显 盈利韧性，高分红具备较强吸引力 中谷物流是我国内贸集装箱龙头企业。公司成立于 2003 年，通过持续整合全 国范围内的铁路及公路资源，形成了"公、铁、水"三维物流网络，建立了以 水路运输为核心的多式联运综合物流体系。 公司物流基础设施完善，航线网络覆盖面广 公司长期深耕内贸集运行业，已经通过港口、航线、联运线路的有机结合，构 筑了全方位、多层次的多式联运综合物流体系。港口方面，目前公司的航运网 络覆盖全国 25 个沿海主要港口与超过 50 个内河港口，并采取"双核战略" 对港口资源进行有效配置；航线方面，公司航线通达全国沿海及各江河流域的 主要水系，形成了以"京津冀经济带"、"长江经济带"、"粤港澳大湾区"以及 "一带一路南北海上大通道"构成的"三横一纵"的大海运、大物流体系；公 司铁路快线网则与水路网络形成了有效的互补，强化了公司物流网络的覆盖， 有效提升了公司竞争力。 公司业务规模稳健扩张，利润率高，盈利稳定性强 公司控制运力及营收水平在内贸集装箱航运领域排名第二，仅次于中远海控旗 下的泛亚航运。公司持续强化规模优势，订购的 18 艘 4600TEU 大型内贸 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel and WTI prices below $67 per barrel [8] - The report suggests that if oil prices remain low, it could lead to cost savings of approximately 4-5 billion yuan for major airlines, equivalent to a ticket price reduction of about 3%-4% [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions to ensure that the benefits of lower oil prices translate into profits for the airlines [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus of the week is on the accelerated decline in oil prices, which is expected to enhance the profit margins for the aviation industry [6] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the period was 81,367 flights, with a daily average of 11,624 flights, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.0615 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [11] - The average full ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [11] - The domestic passenger load factor was 83.18%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [12] - International passenger volume reached 1.315 million, down 5.27% week-on-week but up 26.01% year-on-year [14] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - For the week of February 24 to March 2, the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a delivery volume of about 541 million pieces, showing a slight decrease of 0.56% and an increase of 0.05% respectively compared to the previous week [19] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily express delivery volume was approximately 488 million pieces, up 37.41% year-on-year [20] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the international dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [51] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market decreased by 3% week-on-week, while the SCFI index fell by 5% [51] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [52] Recent Key Reports - The report includes a recommended investment portfolio consisting of companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Hi-Speed, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhonggu Logistics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [6][14]. Core Views - Zhonggu Logistics is a leading player in the domestic container shipping industry in China, with a robust logistics network and strong profitability despite industry challenges [1][19]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, which is attractive to investors, with a commitment to distribute at least 60% of its cumulative distributable profits over the next three years [14][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhonggu Logistics, established in 2003, is a leader in domestic container shipping, integrating rail and road resources to form a comprehensive logistics network [1][7]. - The company has developed a multi-modal logistics system centered on waterway transport, covering major coastal and inland ports across China [2][19]. Business Expansion and Profitability - The company ranks second in terms of capacity and revenue in the domestic container shipping sector, with a strong focus on maintaining high profit margins and stable earnings [3][55]. - Despite industry volatility, Zhonggu has managed to maintain a profit margin of around 13%, showcasing its operational efficiency [47][60]. Competitive Advantages - Zhonggu's profitability is supported by its refined management capabilities and cost advantages in shipbuilding, allowing it to optimize logistics processes and reduce operational costs [4][71]. - The company has invested in a self-developed comprehensive management system that enhances efficiency across the entire logistics chain [65][64]. Industry Demand Drivers - The long-term growth of the domestic container shipping industry is supported by trends such as the shift from road to water transport and the increasing adoption of multi-modal logistics [5][13]. - The report highlights that the proportion of water transport in China's logistics is expected to rise, driven by government initiatives to improve multi-modal transport infrastructure [5][13]. Financial Forecast and Recommendations - The projected net profits for Zhonggu Logistics from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 1.6 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios indicating attractive valuations [14][15]. - The company is committed to high shareholder returns, with a dividend yield forecasted to reach 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.6% over the next three years [14][19].

中谷物流（603565.SH）：行业低谷彰显 盈利韧性，高分红具备较强吸引力 中谷物流是我国内贸集装箱龙头企业。公司成立于 2003 年，通过持续整合全 国范围内的铁路及公路资源，形成了"公、铁、水"三维物流网络，建立了以 水路运输为核心的多式联运综合物流体系。 公司物流基础设施完善，航线网络覆盖面广 公司长期深耕内贸集运行业，已经通过港口、航线、联运线路的有机结合，构 筑了全方位、多层次的多式联运综合物流体系。港口方面，目前公司的航运网 络覆盖全国 25 个沿海主要港口与超过 50 个内河港口，并采取"双核战略" 对港口资源进行有效配置；航线方面，公司航线通达全国沿海及各江河流域的 主要水系，形成了以"京津冀经济带"、"长江经济带"、"粤港澳大湾区"以及 "一带一路南北海上大通道"构成的"三横一纵"的大海运、大物流体系；公 司铁路快线网则与水路网络形成了有效的互补，强化了公司物流网络的覆盖， 有效提升了公司竞争力。 公司业务规模稳健扩张，利润率高，盈利稳定性强 公司控制运力及营收水平在内贸集装箱航运领域排名第二，仅次于中远海控旗 下的泛亚航运。公司持续强化规模优势，订购的 18 艘 4600TEU 大型内贸 ...

证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2025-001 上海中谷物流股份有限公司股东权益变动结果的公 告 本次权益变动后，公司控股股东及其一致行动人持股比例为 65.02%， 本次权益变动不会使公司控股股东及实际控制人发生变化 一、本次权益变动基本情况 近日公司收到宁波谷泽投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"谷泽投 资"）的通知，截至本公告日，谷泽投资通过大宗交易方式转让公司股份 42,001,262 股、通过集合竞价方式转让公司股份 20,999,400 股，合计转让股份 占公司目前总股本的 3%,本次股份转让计划提前完成。 | 1、本次股东权益变动前股东基本情况： | | --- | | 宁波谷泽投资管理合伙 | 其他股东：控股股 | 74,552,705 | 3.55% | IPO 前取得：26,181,626 股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东名称 企业（有限合伙） | 股东身份 东一致行动人 | 持股数量 （股） | 持股比例 | 当前持股股份来源 其他方式取得：48,371,079 股 | 上述主体存在一致行动人: 1 本公司董事会 ...

(二)保证范围: 主合同项下最高本金限额人民币 4 亿元项下的所有债权余 额（含本金、利息、罚息、复利、违约金、损害赔偿金、债权人实现债权的费 用等）。 证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2024-036 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 关于在股东大会授权额度下为全资子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 一、担保情况概述 （一）厦门中谷、厦门国达因经营发展需求,拟向兴业银行股份有限公司厦门 分行申请总额为 4 亿元人民币的授信额度,公司拟为该授信提供最高本金限额为 人民币 4 亿元整连带责任保证。 被担保人名称：上海中谷物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的全 资子公司厦门中谷物流发展有限公司（以下简称"厦门中谷"）、厦门国 达海运有限公司（以下简称"厦门国达"）。 担保金额：本次担保最高本金限额为人民币 4 亿元整。 本次担保是否有反担保：否 对外担保逾期的累计数量：截至本公告披露日，公司无逾期对外担保。 截至本公告披露日，公司累计提供的对外担保总额为 12.28 ...

根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准上海中谷物流股份有限公司非公开 发行股票的批复》（证监许可〔2021〕2355 号），公司向特定对象非公开发行人 民币普通股（A 股）股票 9,209.11 万股，发行价为每股人民币 29.84 元，共计募 集资金 274,799.96 万元，另减除承销和保荐费用、律师费、审计费及验资费、股 票登记费、印花税等与发行权益性证券直接相关的外部费用后，公司本次募集资 金净额为 272,811.55 万元。上述募集资金到位情况业经天健会计师事务所（特殊 普通合伙）验证，并由其出具《验资报告》（天健验〔2021〕6-84 号）。 证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2024-035 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 关于部分募投项目延期的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、募集资金基本情况 二、募集资金使用情况 截至 2024 年 12 月 18 日（本次董事会会议通知日），公司非公开发行股票 募集资金投入的具体情况如下： 单位：万元 | 序 | 募投项目名称 | 项 ...

中国国际金融股份有限公司 关于上海中谷物流股份有限公司 部分募投项目延期的核查意见 中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"或"保荐机构"）担任上海中 谷物流股份有限公司（以下简称"中谷物流"或"公司"）非公开发行股票的保荐机构， 根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》《上市公司监管指引第 2 号—上市公司募集资 金管理和使用的监管要求》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 11 号——持续督 导》等相关法律法规的要求，就中谷物流募投项目延期事项进行了审慎核查，具体情况 如下： 一、募集资金基本情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可[2021]2355 号文核准，公司向特定投资者非公 开发行人民币普通股（A 股）股票 92,091,141 股，发行价为每股人民币 29.84 元，募集资 金总额为人民币 2,747,999,647.44 元，扣除发行费用后，募集资金净额为人民币 2,728,115,477.41 元。上述募集资金到位情况已经天健会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）审 验并出具了天健验[2021]6-84 号《验资报告》，并已全部存放于募集资金专户管理。 二、募集资金使用情况 截至 2024 年 1 ...