Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with total revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [1]. - The high-end and mid-range liquor segments faced pressure, with revenue for high-end liquor in Q3 2024 down 22.70% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its distribution channels, with direct sales channels showing growth while wholesale channels faced challenges [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 74.76%, and the net profit margin was 30.05%, showing stability compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin decreased to 71.91%, and the net profit margin was 30.28%, impacted by an increase in taxes and fees [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.756 billion, 1.889 billion, and 2.020 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.02%, 7.57%, and 6.94% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.09%, -27.36%, and +44.47% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 1.139 billion, 13 million, and 21 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [1]. Channel Performance - The company reported a decline in wholesale revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.80% in Q3 2024, while direct sales revenue increased by 19.70% [1]. - The number of distributors in the province increased by 2, while the number outside the province decreased by 1, indicating a dynamic adjustment of the distribution network [1]. Market Outlook - The company is projected to have a market capitalization of 23.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The report indicates a stable outlook for the company's profitability despite current challenges in the high-end liquor market [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.18% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a significant drop of 22.04% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.72% to 362 million yuan [2]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" has received positive feedback, and the company is actively expanding its market presence outside its home province [2]. - The company's gross margin decreased in Q3 2024 due to increased promotional efforts and discounts, with a gross margin of 71.91%, down 5.90 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The establishment of a marketing center has improved channel management, and the company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel development during the industry downturn [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.311 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.89% and 2.18% respectively [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively [2]. Product and Market Development - The new product "Jian 8" was launched in April 2024 and has been well-received, contributing to a revenue of 11.39 million yuan from high-end liquor in Q3 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 22.70% [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from outside the province reaching 2.21 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 25.59% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.76%, while it dropped to 71.91% in Q3 2024, impacted by increased promotional activities [2]. - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.05%, with a slight increase to 30.28% in Q3 2024, despite the overall decline in profitability [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in profitability as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.650 billion yuan, 1.735 billion yuan, and 1.851 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 for 2024, indicating a stable valuation in the context of expected earnings growth [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for growth driven by channel adjustments and the new product line "Jian Series" [2][5][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 11.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.62 billion, down 27.72% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][7] - The decline in high-end liquor sales is attributed to the high base effect from the launch of the "Jian Series" last year [7] - The company's channel reforms are ongoing, with the "Jian Series" showing leading channel profitability and potential to drive future growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 71.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90 percentage points, mainly due to the high base effect from last year's "Jian Series" product launch [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's sales revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, with sales cash receipts of RMB 14.26 billion, up 1.78% year-on-year [7] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2024, high-end/mid-range/low-end liquor sales were RMB 11.39 billion, RMB 0.13 billion, and RMB 0.21 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [7] - Regional sales in Q3 2024 were RMB 9.52 billion in the domestic market and RMB 2.21 billion in the international market, with year-on-year decreases of 22.09% and 25.59%, respectively [7] - The number of domestic and international distributors increased by 4 and 53, respectively, reaching 500 and 508 by the end of Q3 2024 [7] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 57.21 billion, RMB 57.44 billion, and RMB 58.74 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.05%, +0.42%, and +2.26%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 16.35 billion, RMB 16.45 billion, and RMB 16.88 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.03%, +0.64%, and +2.58%, respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 16X, 16X, and 15X, respectively [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector [5] - The report highlights the company's potential to benefit from the overall growth of the Anhui liquor market, with ongoing channel adjustments and the "Jian Series" expected to contribute to future growth [2][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a focus on new product launches and channel reforms. The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" fills a gap in the 200-300 RMB price range, which is one of the fastest-growing segments in the Anhui market. This product is expected to drive revenue growth [1][2] - The company reported a total revenue of 43.62 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.11 billion RMB, down 2.81% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a significant decline in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic pressures and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - The company is undergoing positive changes in its operations, including capacity expansion and increased marketing investments. The focus on channel flatness and market penetration in Anhui is expected to strengthen its market position [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.95 billion RMB, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB, down 27.72% year-on-year. The decline reflects the overall pressure on the liquor industry this year [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased operating costs. The net profit margin also fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a year-on-year increase in sales cash receipts by 1.78% and a decrease in operating cash flow by 8.32% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 60.51 billion RMB, 69.77 billion RMB, and 80.15 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts are 17.52 billion RMB, 20.20 billion RMB, and 23.21 billion RMB for the same years. The expected EPS for these years are 2.92 RMB, 3.37 RMB, and 3.87 RMB, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging demand environment, leading to a proactive release of channel risks to secure long-term growth potential [3][5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts downward due to ongoing demand pressures, with expectations of modest growth in the coming years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022: 5,135 million CNY - 2023: 5,962 million CNY - 2024E: 5,971 million CNY (0.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,447 million CNY (8.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,988 million CNY (8.4% YoY growth) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022: 1,550 million CNY - 2023: 1,721 million CNY - 2024E: 1,713 million CNY (-0.5% YoY) - 2025E: 1,883 million CNY (9.9% YoY) - 2026E: 2,079 million CNY (10.4% YoY) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: 2.58 CNY - 2023: 2.87 CNY - 2024E: 2.86 CNY - 2025E: 3.14 CNY - 2026E: 3.46 CNY [1][8] - **Profitability Ratios**: - EBIT Margin: Expected to decline from 39.6% in 2022 to 37.5% in 2024E, then recover slightly to 38.7% by 2026E [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to decrease from 17.4% in 2022 to 16.3% in 2024E, with a slight recovery to 17.3% by 2026E [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 16.6 in 2022 to 12.4 by 2026E [1][8] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 2.88 in 2022 to 2.14 by 2026E [1][8] - EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2022 to 9.8 by 2026E [1][8] Market Trends - The company is facing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.0% in revenue and 27.7% in net profit [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies and channel management to cope with the current market conditions, focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and improving sales efficiency [6][7]

本公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日收到黄绍刚先生办理股票质押展期的通知，具 体情况如下： 一、本次股份质押展期情况 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 黄绍刚先生持有安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）股份 数量为 12,411,743 股，占公司总股本比例为 2.07%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股 后，黄绍刚先生持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 5,000,100 股，占其持股数量比 例为 40.29%。 黄绍刚先生及其一致行动人持有本公司股份数量为 252,063,712 股，占本 公司总股本的 42.01%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股后，黄绍刚先生及其一致行动 人持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 38,431,600 股，占其持股数量比例为 15.25%。 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-047 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东股票质押展期的公告 黄绍刚先生于 2022 年 11 月 3 日将持有的本公司的股份 5,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 49.92 CNY [4][6][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered an adjustment phase due to constrained consumer power, resulting in performance below expectations. However, profitability remains relatively high, and pre-sale indicators are healthy, suggesting potential for recovery [2][4][14]. - The report forecasts a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.58 CNY, 2.70 CNY, and 2.83 CNY, down from previous estimates of 3.24 CNY, 3.53 CNY, and 3.77 CNY respectively [4][13]. - Despite the current adjustment period, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer goods valuation and industry average comparisons, which supports the target price [4][13]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion CNY and a net profit of 362 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year declines of 22.04% and 27.02% respectively [14]. - The gross margin showed significant fluctuations, while the net margin remained high at 30.28%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 2.38 percentage points [14]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.45 billion CNY, down 8.6% from the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5][14]. Market Position - The company is currently facing challenges in both domestic and external markets, with revenue declines of 22% and 26% respectively in Q3 2024 [14]. - The company is undergoing channel and product reforms, which are expected to take time but may lead to performance recovery as the industry cycle improves [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 45 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.31 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.20 billion yuan, down 22.0%, and net profit was 360 million yuan, down 27.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and nurturing terminal sales, adjusting its growth expectations in response to industry pressures and increased competition [1]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" is expected to enhance market acceptance and contribute to sales growth, with a focus on improving channel management and relationships [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 8.2% in 2024, followed by further declines in 2025 and 2026 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 10.9% in 2024, and further declines in the following years [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.87 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.56 yuan in 2024, and further to 2.23 yuan in 2025 [9].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 28 日 口子窖 (603589) ——24Q3 点评：收入业绩承压 现金流相对稳健 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 42.79 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 52.74/33.88 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 3.51 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,594 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.93 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company is showing signs of a bottoming out in its fundamentals, with expectations for recovery momentum [2]. - The external macro environment presents challenges, particularly affecting the sales of mid-to-high-end liquor products [3]. - The company is focusing on strategic single product development while enhancing the promotion of series products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a decline of 22.04% year-on-year, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [2]. Product Segmentation - High-end liquor revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.112 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.09%, accounting for 96.71% of total revenue [3]. - In Q3 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.139 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue increased by 44.47% to 91 million yuan [3]. Channel and Market Analysis - The company's direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 135 million yuan and 4.117 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales up 48.01% and wholesale down 3.86% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Anhui province, where Q3 2024 revenue was 9.52 billion yuan, down 22.09% year-on-year [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin decreased by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.739 billion yuan in 2024, 1.996 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.249 billion yuan in 2026 [5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 15, 13, and 11 times for the respective years [5].