Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aviation industry is experiencing a significant improvement in passenger load factors and overall performance, with expectations for continued positive trends in pricing and demand during the summer travel season [1][4]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In May 2025, domestic airlines reported a notable increase in passenger load factors, with major airlines seeing an approximate 3 percentage point rise year-on-year [1]. - Eastern Airlines recorded the highest growth in passenger volume, increasing by 10.8%, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines saw increases of 14.6% and 0.3%, respectively [1][2]. - The average daily flight volume in the domestic market remained stable compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. Group 2: International Market Trends - The international and regional routes are gradually expanding, with significant recovery in routes to Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Vietnam [2]. - Among major airlines, China Southern and Eastern Airlines have increased capacity significantly, while Juneyao Airlines has shifted focus towards international routes [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The introduction of new aircraft remains low, with a total of 76 aircraft introduced in the first five months of 2025, indicating a slow growth in supply [3]. - The industry is witnessing record-high passenger load factors, and prices are stabilizing as the summer travel season approaches, leading to optimistic expectations for performance [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The positive performance during the May Day holiday and stable pricing in early June suggest a favorable outlook for the aviation industry, with recommendations to invest in Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply in the aviation industry is gradually contracting, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices. An improvement in supply-demand dynamics is expected during the peak travel season [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a high passenger load factor, with limited room for recovery in utilization rates. The supply contraction is intensifying, leading to a trend of narrowing year-on-year ticket price declines, which may improve the industry’s supply-demand relationship [14][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to the anticipated recovery in air travel demand during the peak season [3][14]. Industry Supply Contraction and Ticket Price Trends - The industry’s passenger load factor remains high, with an increasing proportion of grounded aircraft. In April 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.1% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [4][16]. - The average ticket price in June 2025 was down 5.9% year-on-year, with the average domestic ticket price for 2025 year-to-date at 837 RMB, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5][26]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 and Q2 2025 was 5,952 RMB/ton and 5,385 RMB/ton, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% and 17.0%. The Brent crude oil price averaged 67.95 USD/barrel as of June 16, 2025, down 18.1% year-on-year [6][37][38]. Airline Capacity and Load Factors - In May 2025, airlines increased their international capacity, with domestic load factors remaining high. The overall ASK for major airlines showed a year-on-year increase, with international routes recovering faster than domestic routes [45][46]. - The report indicates that the passenger load factors for domestic routes exceeded those of 2019, with significant increases noted for China Eastern and China Southern Airlines on international routes [45][47].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The passenger load factor has reached a new high, and price expectations are improving. The civil aviation passenger volume in May 2025 showed good year-on-year performance, with major airlines experiencing an increase of over 5%, particularly Eastern Airlines with a growth of 10.8% and Spring Airlines with a 14.6% increase [4][13] - The domestic market remains stable while the international market is gradually expanding. The average daily flight volume in May 2025 was stable compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. Major airlines have shown slight growth in domestic routes, with Spring Airlines achieving double-digit growth [5][15] - Aircraft introduction remains low, and with the peak summer travel season approaching, the industry is expected to perform well in terms of volume and pricing. The fleet size of civil aviation is projected to grow by only 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a slow supply growth [6][25] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing point is 2012.96, with a 52-week high of 2398.85 and a low of 1625.59 [1] Recent Operational Data - In May 2025, major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in passenger transport volume, with Eastern Airlines at 10.8% and Spring Airlines at 14.6%. The overall passenger load factor for major airlines improved by approximately 3 percentage points [4][13] - Domestic flight volume remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Eastern Airlines achieved a domestic load factor of 87.2%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [5][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the civil aviation industry, with stable pricing and improved revenue management. Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, with a focus on the recovery of major airlines' performance [7][29]

申万宏源发布研报称，五一假期出行超预期、节后量价进一步稳定，航空市场正稳步迈入旺季阶段，从 今年市场的供需结构来看，市场供给增长放缓，旅客量自然增长的核心逻辑不变，若后续国内航司票价 持续回暖，将验证支撑航司收益提升逻辑。继续看好航空板块，供给逻辑确定性强，需求端具备弹性， 在外部油汇变化配合下航司能够释放较大业绩提升空间，推荐中国国航（601111）(601111.SH)、华夏航 空（002928）(002928.SZ)、春秋航空（601021）(601021.SH)、吉祥航空（603885）(603885.SH)、国泰 航空(00293)、南方航空（600029）(600029.SH)、中国东航（600115）(600115.SH)。 国际市场：国际运力与运量保持恢复，部分航司恢复情况接近或超过疫情前水平 航司5月数据总体情况：五一假期带动需求旺盛，各航司运力与旅客周转量继续稳步提升 6家上市航司ASK运力同比2024年增长：中国国航(+4%)、中国东航(+9%)、南方航空(+5%)、吉祥航空 (+0.5%)、春秋航空(+11%)、海航控股（600221）(+15%)；各航司RPK旅客周转量同比增长：中国 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][57]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive outlook on the aviation sector, particularly regarding the upcoming summer travel season, driven by improved demand and operational metrics [8]. - Key factors supporting this outlook include resilient domestic demand, ongoing recovery in international routes, and supply constraints in the market [8]. - The report highlights specific airlines, such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, as leaders in the domestic regional market, while also noting the potential for China National Aviation to release elasticity in operations [8]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In May, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (11.5%), followed by Eastern Airlines (9.3%) and Southern Airlines (5.0%) [2]. - For RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers), Eastern Airlines showed the highest growth at 15.4%, with Spring Airlines at 11.7% [2]. - Cumulative data from January to May indicates Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (8.9%) and Eastern Airlines in RPK growth (12.7%) [2]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic routes in May saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 10.9% and RPK growth of 12.0% [3]. - Internationally, Juneyao Airlines led with an ASK growth of 50.1% and RPK growth of 66.7% in May [3]. - Cumulative data for international routes from January to May shows Juneyao Airlines with a significant ASK growth of 69.5% and RPK growth of 71.2% [3]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in May was highest for Spring Airlines at 91.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [4]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 6 aircraft in May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [4]. Market Performance - The aviation sector's total market capitalization is reported at 730.725 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 514.519 billion yuan [6]. - The absolute performance of the sector over the last month was -3.3%, while the relative performance was +2.8% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from a strong summer travel season, with airlines likely to realize pricing and profit elasticity [2][5]. - The industry has shown a steady increase in capacity and passenger load factors, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [3][4]. - Airlines are anticipated to enter a profit cycle due to low supply growth and improved revenue management, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [2][5]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - In May, the three major airlines reported a passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with capacity increasing by 6.0% [3][11]. - Spring Airlines achieved a load factor exceeding 90%, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. - The overall passenger load factor for the combined three major airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines was 84.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Revenue and Pricing - The report indicates that the average ticket price has been rising for eight consecutive weeks, suggesting a positive revenue outlook for the summer peak season [2][5]. - The domestic route average ticket price was reported at 693 RMB, showing a significant improvement compared to previous weeks [5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in several airlines, including China National Aviation (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), among others, with target prices set for each [9][25]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook [25][27].

南方航空（600029）及所属子公司5月客运运力投入同比上升4.99%，旅客周转量（按收入客公里计， 下同）同比上升8.43%，客座率为85.91%，同比上升2.73个百分点。 中国国航（601111）及所属子公司客运运力投入同比上升4.5%，旅客周转量同比上升8.4%，平均客座 率为81.3%，同比上升2.9个百分点。 春秋航空（601021）客运运力同比上升11.49%，旅客周转量同比上升11.66%，客座率91.07%。 近日，多家上市航司陆续披露了5月运营情况，运力、旅客周转量等数据整体同比增长，显示持续向 好。 上市航司5月运营数据向好 客运方面，中国东航（600115）5月客运运力投入（按可用座公里计，下同）同比上升9.27%，旅客周 转量（按客运人公里计）同比上升15.43%，客座率为85.39%，同比上升4.56个百分点。 2025年一季度，上市航司业绩出现分化。春秋航空、吉祥航空、海航控股（600221）和华夏航空 （002928）实现盈利，中国国航、中国东航、南方航空仍未扭亏。 一季报盈利的航司中，春秋航空实现营业收入53.17亿元，同比增长2.88%，归母净利润6.77亿元，同比 下滑1 ...

Group 1 - Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, condemned Israel's attacks on Iran, emphasizing support for Iran's sovereignty and urging international efforts for peace [4] - Wang Yi also communicated with Israel's Foreign Minister, stressing the need to avoid escalation and return to diplomatic solutions regarding the Iran nuclear issue [4] - The U.S. is highlighted as the largest service trade surplus country, with a projected surplus nearing $300 billion in 2024, while the narrative of "reciprocal tariffs" is criticized as misleading [5] Group 2 - Guangzhou has fully lifted its 15-year housing market controls, including purchase, sale, and price restrictions, marking a significant policy shift [6] - The city aims to reduce housing inventory and improve the housing market by accelerating urban village renovations and facilitating the purchase of existing homes for relocation [6] Group 3 - China's first invasive brain-machine interface clinical trial has been successfully conducted, positioning the country as the second globally to enter this phase [6] - The successful launch of the "Zhang Heng No. 02" satellite enhances China's capabilities in geophysical field observation and disaster monitoring [6] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission imposed a fine of nearly 77 million yuan on stock manipulator Tu Wenbin, who illegally profited over 36 million yuan through various trading tactics [7] - Tu Wenbin is noted as a prominent figure in the market, previously involved with several companies as a major shareholder [7] Group 5 - JD.com opened its second JD Mall in Beijing, featuring a variety of products and interactive robots, showcasing the retail sector's shift towards technology and consumer engagement [13][14] - Walmart and Amazon are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to reduce transaction fees and improve payment efficiency, potentially disrupting traditional payment systems [15] Group 6 - Baidu launched a large-scale recruitment initiative for AI talent, expanding its hiring by over 60% compared to previous years, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [16] - Pop Mart has temporarily suspended offline sales of LABUBU plush toys in South Korea due to safety concerns, reflecting the company's focus on consumer trust and safety [18] Group 7 - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebates within two months, aiming to alleviate financial pressures on dealers and promote healthy industry development [20] - The company is responding to industry calls for better practices and support within the automotive sector [20]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has resumed aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines, marking a significant step in the recovery of its operations in China after a prolonged pause due to trade tensions between the US and China [1] Group 1 - Boeing delivered a new 787-9 aircraft to Juneyao Airlines, indicating a restart of deliveries to Chinese carriers [1] - The previous halt in deliveries was a result of the US-China trade war, which led to Chinese airlines suspending the acceptance of Boeing aircraft [1]