证券研究报告 | 2024年11月01日 吉祥航空（603885.SH） 优于大市 三季度净利同比下滑，静待供需格局改善 吉祥航空 2024 年三季度业绩同比下滑。2024 年前三季度公司营业收入 174.92 亿元，同比增长 10.15%，实现归母净利润 12.71 亿元，同比增长 10.12%，其中单三季度公司营业收入 65.36 亿元，同比下降 0.2%，实现归母 净利润 7.82 亿元，同比下降 27.21%。 国内需求修复，客座率同比提升明显，但收益水平同比下滑显著。2024 年三 季度，公司旅客运输量、旅客周转量（RPK）、可用座公里（ASK）分别同比 增长 4.73%、12.69%以及 13.42%，且分别恢复至 2019 年同期的 128.15%、 138.46%以及 140.45%；客座率恢复至 85.74%，同比下降了 0.55 pct，相较 2019 年下降了 1.23 pct。其中，国内航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别恢复至 2019 年 的 134.22%和 133.92%，国内客座率恢复至 88.87%，相较 2019 年提升了 0.2 pct；国际航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 7.82 billion yuan in Q3 2024, aligning with expectations [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 17.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.271 billion yuan, up 12.08% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s passenger transport volume for January to September 2024 reached 18.5611 million domestic passengers, 2.3334 million international passengers, and 267,000 regional passengers, representing 128.21%, 123.89%, and 89.46% of the 2019 levels, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s operating revenue for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024 was 5.719 billion yuan, 5.236 billion yuan, and 6.536 billion yuan, respectively, with Q3 marking the highest quarterly revenue of the year due to strong demand during the summer travel season [2]. - The operating cost for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.41%, with a gross margin of 17.56%, showing slight improvement compared to 2019 [2]. - The company maintained a fleet of 124 aircraft, focusing on a unified aircraft model to enhance operational efficiency [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.61, 0.78, and 0.95 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.56X, 16.78X, and 13.81X [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 782 million yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.21%, slightly below expectations. The total revenue for Q3 was 6.536 billion yuan, a minor decline of 0.2% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit reached 1.271 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - The international business has shown significant growth, with the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increasing by 40% compared to 2019, and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) up by 38% compared to 2019. The domestic ASK and RPK have recovered to 134% of the 2019 levels [1] - The fleet size has expanded to 124 aircraft, marking a 36.3% increase compared to 2019 and a 7.8% increase compared to 2023, outpacing the industry average [1] - The report indicates that the company is adjusting its revenue growth forecast for domestic passenger kilometers to -6% for 2024, down from the previous estimate of -3%, due to ongoing low ticket prices and slower-than-expected international recovery [1] Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 21.955 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%. The net profit is expected to be 1.016 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 35.3% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a gross margin of 13.6% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.8% for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 [2] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.11 yuan, with a one-year high of 14.90 yuan and a low of 9.92 yuan. The market capitalization is approximately 29.026 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.4 and a dividend yield of 1.21% [3] Basic Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's net asset per share is 4.19 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 80.06% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 17.49 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.27 billion RMB, also up by 10.1% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the revenue slightly decreased by 0.2% to 6.54 billion RMB, and the net profit dropped by 27% to 780 million RMB [2]. - The decline in Q3 revenue was primarily due to a decrease in ticket prices, despite a 13% increase in both Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK). The international RPK saw a significant increase of 122% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in international routes [2]. - The company continues to lead in the recovery of international flights, with a strategy focused on expanding its international route network, including new routes to Australia and Vietnam [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 17.49 billion RMB, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.27 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenues were 6.54 billion RMB, down 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 780 million RMB, down 27% [2]. - The company’s unit revenue per RPK decreased by 11% in Q3 due to a high base from the previous year and a drop in international ticket prices [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s ASK and RPK both grew by 13% in Q3 2024, with international routes showing a remarkable recovery, surpassing 2019 levels by 58% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.7%, down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower ticket prices [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 1.2 billion RMB, 2.3 billion RMB, and 2.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while continuing to pursue a "Buy" rating [2].

证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-097 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 关于注销部分已回购股份的实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"吉祥航空"或"公司"）分别于 2024 年 8 月 13 日、2024 年 9 月 2 日召开第五届董事会第十一次会议及 2024 年 第一次临时股东会，审议通过《关于拟变更部分回购股份用途并注销的议案》 《关于减少公司注册资本及修订<公司章程>的议案》。公司同意变更部分已 回购股份的用途，对于公司 2024 年实施回购的其中 1,500 万股股份，用途 由原回购方案"用于员工持股计划或者股权激励"变更为"用于注销并减少 注册资本"，注销完成后公司总股本将由 2,214,005,268 股减少至 2,199,005,268 股，注册资本将由 2,214,005,268 元减少至 2,199,005,268 元。 本次注销股份的有关情况： | 回购专用证券账户股份数量（股） | 本次注销股份数量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q1-Q3 2024, achieving 9.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.6% to 4.16 billion RMB [1]. - The revenue growth in Q3 2024 was 3.09 billion RMB, up 34.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 6.4% to 1.45 billion RMB [1]. - The integration of招商中铁 (China Merchants Railway) has positively impacted revenue, and the company has successfully transitioned several asset projects [1]. - The company has seen a 165.7% increase in credit impairment losses, primarily due to provisions made by招商新智 (China Merchants New Intelligence) [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 40.0%, a slight decline of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio improved [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - For 2024, the company forecasts net profits of 6.40 billion RMB, 6.78 billion RMB, and 7.29 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [1][3]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected to be 32.88% in 2024, followed by 6.87% in 2025 and 5.95% in 2026 [3]. Operational Developments - The company is actively advancing multiple highway expansion projects, including京津塘高速 (Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu Expressway) and甬台温高速 (Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou Expressway) [1]. - The亳阜REITs (Bo Fu REITs) has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and is preparing for issuance, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance [1]. Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.40% in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.62 [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 46.95%, down 20.7 percentage points year-on-year [1].

证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-096 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份解除质押及质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东上海均瑶（集 团）有限公司（以下简称"均瑶集团"）持有公司股份 1,020,862,080 股， 占公司股份总数的 46.11%，均瑶集团累计质押公司股票（含本次）81,430 万股，占其所持公司股份数的 79.77%，占公司股份总数的 36.78%。 公司于近日收到公司控股股东均瑶集团通知，获悉其将所持有公司的部分股 份办理了解除质押及质押业务，具体事项如下： 单位：万股 股东 名称 持股数量 持股比 例 本次解除 质押股数 占其所 持股份 比例 占公 司总 股本 比例 解除日期 质权人 剩余被 质押股 份数量 剩余被质押 股份数量占 其所持股份 比例 剩余被质押 股份数量占 公司总股本 比例 均瑶 集团 102,086.21 46.11% 3,100 3.04% 1.40 ...

证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-094 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 关于公司为全资孙公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、担保情况概述 公司全资子公司九元航空拟分别和出租人 HAITONG UT HK 5 LIMITED、 HAITONG UT HK 6 LIMITED 以及 CELESTIAL AVIATION TRADING 2 LIMITED 签署 共 3 架波音 737-800 飞机的续期租赁协议修订协议及相关附属交易文件（以下简 称"主合同"）。同时，为顺利开展该 3 架飞机的转租赁模式，九元航空拟在国 内自贸区的保税港区内设立特殊目的公司（Special Purpose Vehicle，即 SPV）。 1 三、担保协议的主要内容 本次公司将为新设SPV公司就上述3架飞机签署的主合同项下的债务提供担 保。本次公司拟提供不超过 6,278.40 万美元（或等值人民币）的担保额度，担 保方式为连带责任保证担保，额度有效期限为自公司股东会审 ...

证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-093 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 第五届监事会第十二次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届监事会第十二次会 议于 2024 年 10 月 30 日以现场结合通讯表决方式召开。会议通知于 2024 年 10 月 25 日以电子邮件、电话等形式发出。会议由公司监事会主席林乃机先生召集 并主持，公司全体监事认真审阅了会议议案，全部 3 名监事对会议议案进行了表 决。会议参与表决人数及召集、召开程序符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关 规定，所作决议合法有效。 二、监事会会议审议情况 本次监事会会议审议并通过了以下议案： （一）审议通过《关于上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 的议案》 监事会审议并通过《上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告》。 违反保密规定的行为。 具体内容详见公司同日披露的《上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季 度 ...

证券代码：603885 证券简称：吉祥航空 公告编号：临 2024-092 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十三次会议决议公告 董事会审议并通过《上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告》。 详见公司于同日披露的《上海吉祥航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告》。 表决结果：9 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 该议案已经审计委员会审议通过并同意提交董事会审议。 （二） 审议通过《关于公司为全资孙公司提供担保的议案》 同意公司为公司全资子公司九元航空有限公司新设 SPV 公司就三架波音 737-800 型号飞机签署的续期租赁协议修订协议、相关附属交易文件（以下简称 "主合同"）项下的债务提供不超过 6278.40 万美元（或等值人民币）的担保额 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 上海吉祥航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十三次会 议于 2024 年 10 月 30 日以现场结合通讯表决方式召开。会议通知于 2024 年 10 月 25 日以电子邮件、电 ...