Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing a significant increase in gold production and is strategically expanding its operations in the precious metals sector, while also maintaining a strong position in various metal markets [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, smelting, and deep processing of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold, and has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain [2][7]. - The company is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally and the largest tungsten producer, as well as the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [2][3]. - The company is also the second-largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in Brazil, with a complete phosphate industry chain [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Financial Performance - The company holds an 80% stake in the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold production guidance for 2023 set to increase by 56% to 69% compared to 2022, reaching between 25,000 to 27,000 ounces [2]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [8]. Group 3: Market Activity and Stock Performance - On February 9, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock rose by 1.96%, with a trading volume of 4.236 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 479.66 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 117 million yuan from major investors, indicating a reduction in holdings over the past three days [4][5]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 18.69 yuan, with the current price approaching a resistance level of 22.70 yuan, suggesting potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal mining ETF, which opened with a gain of 1.94% at 2.254 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the non-ferrous metal mining ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others showing positive gains [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index return, managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., with a return of 121.32% since its establishment on June 21, 2023, and a 5.62% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Silverhua ETF (159871), which opened with a gain of 1.39% at 1.097 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the Silverhua ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The performance benchmark for the Silverhua ETF is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Silverhua Fund Management Co., with a return of 116.82% since its inception on March 10, 2021, and a 4.72% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively strengthened on February 9, with the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) rising by 2.09%, and stocks like Shenghe Resources increasing by 9.49% [1] - Silver and rare earth stocks also saw significant gains, with silver rising by 5.94%, and companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth following suit [1] - The price consumption is relatively flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the increase in non-ferrous metals is limited compared to precious metals, indicating a potential return to fundamentals after the price surge [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, copper is testing the key support level of 100,000 yuan/ton, with expectations for downstream inventory replenishment likely to occur after the Spring Festival [1] - Global copper inventory has risen to 1.11 million tons, with 589,000 tons locked in the COMEX market, while aluminum prices are supported at 23,500 yuan/ton despite current inventory accumulation [1] - The prices of non-ferrous metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories remaining relatively low, suggesting improved demand driven by economic recovery and the new energy sector [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 51.85% of the index [2] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Zijin Mining at 15.30%, Luoyang Molybdenum at 7.92%, and Northern Rare Earth at 5.30% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) has several off-market connections, including the Huaxia Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Connect A (016707) and C (016708) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends [2] - The report highlights the need to focus on investment opportunities following stabilization in the market [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] 2. Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices decreased by 3.45% to 100,100 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices fell by 5.07% to 23,315 CNY/ton [24] - SHFE gold prices dropped by 8.92% to 1,090.12 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold rose by 5.13% to 4,988.60 USD/ounce [26] - SHFE silver prices decreased by 37.17% to 18,799 CNY/kg, with COMEX silver down by 1.28% to 77.53 USD/ounce [26] 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PCE, which show a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and 2.79%, respectively [29][30] - China's CPI and PPI for December were reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively [30] 4. Precious Metals: Low Inventory Disturbances - The report notes that low inventory levels continue to disrupt precious metal prices, with significant fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets [52][53] 5. Copper: Price Fluctuations - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply-side adjustments and demand dynamics playing crucial roles [65][72] 6. Aluminum: Price Adjustments - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal demand fluctuations, with a noted decrease in processing rates [10][80] 7. Energy Metals: Strong Demand - The report highlights robust demand for energy metals, particularly lithium, despite some price pressures due to macroeconomic factors [89][92] 8. Rare Earths: Price Trends - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, continue to rise, supported by tight supply conditions [11]

Group 1 - Copper prices continue to rise, with domestic commodity futures opening with Shanghai copper up over 2%. Last week, LME metal futures closed higher, with LME copper rising by $91 to $12,994 per ton and LME aluminum rising by $58 to $3,085 per ton [1] - According to Huayuan Securities, in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage. Additionally, the profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" backdrop, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1] - In the context of copper prices reaching historical highs, the process of "aluminum replacing copper" in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors may accelerate. Furthermore, the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones is expected to continue until 2026, which may lead to an increase in demand for electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and others, collectively accounting for 55.71% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]