Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock performance with an 8.73% increase on August 25, 2023, and a total market capitalization of 258.44 billion yuan [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is engaged in the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals, including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus, and is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally [3]. - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is the largest tungsten producer, the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [3]. - The company is also the second-largest phosphorus fertilizer producer in Brazil, holding 100% indirect rights to the CIL phosphorus mine [3]. Production and Financial Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in gold production, with a guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 56% to 69% [3]. - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion yuan [8]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.95% to 237,500, with no change in average circulating shares per person [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [9]. Market Position and Trends - Luoyang Molybdenum ranks 41st in terms of market popularity within the A-share market [2]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 4.42 billion yuan from major investors, indicating a stable interest in the stock [4][5].

Group 1: Resident Deposit Migration - The report indicates that resident deposit migration is expected to begin, typically occurring 10-12 months after a market transition from bear to bull, with the current period being 11 months since the last transition [1][6][7] - Initial signs of deposit migration have emerged, with a notable increase in non-bank deposit growth turning positive, suggesting potential for significant market inflow [6][9] - Short-term market consolidation of 2-3 months is anticipated as deposits begin to migrate, based on historical patterns observed in previous bull markets [8][9] Group 2: Unmanned Sanitation Vehicles - The unmanned sanitation vehicle market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 123 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth expected as the industry transitions from the 0-1 stage to mass production [12][14] - The economic benefits of unmanned sanitation vehicles are substantial, with potential labor cost savings of 12-16 million yuan per vehicle by replacing 3-4 workers, leading to a cost reduction of up to 66% under certain conditions [13][15] - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is estimated to be worth between 1.16 trillion and 2.91 trillion yuan, depending on the replacement rate of sanitation workers [14][15] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights a significant growth potential in the semiconductor equipment sector, particularly in the context of domestic AI development and the need for self-sufficient supply chains [3][18] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market has an average annual scale of approximately 41.7 billion USD, with expectations for continued expansion driven by AI applications [19] - Key companies in the semiconductor equipment space are recommended for investment, including those involved in front-end and back-end equipment, as well as the photolithography supply chain [19] Group 4: Power Prediction Business - The company is recognized as a leader in power prediction, with a projected net profit growth of 40% to 27% from 2025 to 2027, supported by a strong market demand and technological barriers [4][22][24] - The number of service sites for power prediction has increased significantly, indicating robust growth in this segment, with a 55.14% increase in revenue from power prediction services [23] - The company is actively investing in strategic partnerships to enhance its market position in the renewable energy sector [24] Group 5: Wind Power Equipment - The company has reported a 41.26% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by a significant rise in wind turbine sales, which saw a 106.58% increase in sales capacity [32][33] - The company’s gross margin for wind turbine sales has improved, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased demand [33] - Future projections indicate continued growth in net profit, with expectations of 63.8% growth from 2025 to 2027 [35] Group 6: Lithium Battery Materials - The company has achieved a 28.97% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with expectations for further price stabilization and growth in the second half of the year [37][38] - The company is focusing on innovation in lithium battery materials, with significant investments in new technologies and production capabilities [38][39] - Projections for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 are robust, with an anticipated increase of 68.5% [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.1% to 8.67 billion yuan [1]. - The company has successfully diversified into gold mining, acquiring 100% of the Ecuadorian KFM gold mine, which is expected to start production in 2028 with an annual output of approximately 11.5 tons of gold [4]. - The copper and cobalt segments showed strong performance, with copper production in Q2 reaching 183,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 8.67 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 60.1% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 revenue was 48.77 billion yuan, up 6.0% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit reaching 4.73 billion yuan, a 19.8% increase from the previous quarter [1]. Production and Sales - The company exceeded production targets for most products, with copper production at 353,600 tons, a 12.7% increase year-on-year, and cobalt production at 61,100 tons, up 13.1% [1]. - In Q2, copper sales reached 199,000 tons, a 7.5% increase quarter-on-quarter, while cobalt sales slightly decreased to 22,000 tons [2]. Price Trends - The average price of copper on the LME in Q2 was $9,471 per ton, a 0.5% increase from the previous quarter, while the average price of cobalt rose significantly by 37% to $15.23 per pound [2]. Segment Performance - The molybdenum segment saw a revenue increase of 18.9% in Q2, with a gross profit margin of 6.5% [3]. - The niobium segment maintained stable production, with revenues increasing by 5.0% in Q2, while the phosphate segment experienced a substantial revenue growth of 50.4% [4]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 230.1 billion yuan, 248.5 billion yuan, and 268.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 17.6 billion yuan, 19.3 billion yuan, and 20.3 billion yuan [5].

Group 1 - The gold sector continues to strengthen, with companies such as Dengyun Co., Hunan Silver, and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit increase [1] - Other companies including Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, Silver Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Zhuhai Group also experienced significant gains [1]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher on August 25, with the National Index of Free Cash Flow rising significantly, driven by strong performances from component stocks such as Yaxiang and Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by over 7% [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index's upward trend, rising approximately 1.25% with a trading volume exceeding 180 million yuan and a turnover rate of over 4.2%, indicating active trading and frequent premium transactions [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) has a current scale of 4.142 billion yuan and has seen a net inflow of over 291 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, which helps mitigate risks associated with single industry volatility [2] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market [2] Group 3 - According to Industrial Securities, the current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, characterized by continuous innovation highs led by the technology growth sector, indicating that the market is not overheated overall [1] - The market shows a "blooming" trend with opportunities rotating across various industries and themes, suggesting that despite significant upward movements, the overall pressure from crowding is relatively low, enhancing the sustainability of the market [1]

Summary of CMOC Group (3993.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC Group (3993.HK) - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically mining and production of copper and cobalt - **Market Cap**: HK$230.8 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$252.7 billion / $32.3 billion - **12m Price Target**: HK$10.80 / Rmb13.00 Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb8.67 billion, up 60% YoY - **EPS**: Rmb0.405 per share, up 62% YoY - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb8.62 billion, up 52% YoY - **Results**: 8% below estimates due to higher COGS in DRC operations, but above Bloomberg consensus [1][2][30] Revenue and Profitability - **Revenue**: Rmb94.77 billion, down 8% YoY - **Gross Profit**: Rmb18.19 billion, up 8% YoY - **Gross Profit from Mining**: Rmb16.9 billion, up 18% YoY, but 16% below estimates due to lower copper and cobalt profits in DRC [22][30] - **Trading Gross Profit**: Rmb1.8 billion, up 8% YoY, 23% above expectations [23] Operational Performance - **Copper Output**: 354kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 4% above estimates - **Cobalt Output**: 61kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 6% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Copper**: Increased by 44% YoY to Rmb6,112 per ton, 33% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Cobalt**: Increased by 30% YoY to Rmb8,375 per ton, 20% above estimates [25][31] Future Outlook - **Volume Guidance for 2025**: Copper 600-660kt, Cobalt 100-120kt - **Long-term Target**: 800-1,000kt annual copper output and 90-100kt annual cobalt output by 2028E [27] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Increased by 5-9% for 2025-27E due to higher minor metal prices [2] - **Expected Recurring Profit Growth**: 38% in 2025E driven by rising copper prices [36] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlation, with a higher discount rate due to ESG risks [37] Risks - **Commodity Price Risks**: Weaker-than-expected prices for copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus - **Operational Risks**: Sudden decline in ore grade and transportation issues - **Project Execution Risks**: Slower-than-expected project execution impacting growth - **Currency/Country Risks**: Associated with overseas assets - **Hedging Operations**: Risks in trading business [29] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on CMOC H/A shares, with a target price reflecting potential upside based on market conditions and operational performance [36]

Market Performance - On August 25, the rare earth magnetic materials sector saw significant gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Dadi Bear rising over 10%, and Northern Rare Earth increasing by over 8% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with companies such as Zhangyuan Tungsten and Northern Copper hitting the daily limit, and Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 7%, reaching a historical high [1] Stock Highlights - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) reached a price of 13.38 with a gain of 10.03% and a market cap of 159.90 billion [3] - Northern Copper (000737.SZ) increased to 12.50, up 10.04%, with a market cap of 238.07 billion [3] - Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also saw a rise of 10.00%, reaching a price of 5.39 and a market cap of 119.14 billion [3] Regulatory Developments - On August 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly announced the "Interim Measures for Total Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation," effective immediately [5] - The measures require rare earth production companies to establish a tracking system for rare earth product flows and report this information monthly [5] Industry Insights - The recent implementation of the interim measures marks the beginning of significant supply-side reforms in the rare earth industry, with a notable increase in magnetic material exports in July, up 75% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, indicating potential for further recovery [6] - The demand for magnetic materials in the electric vehicle sector is expected to grow by nearly 20% this year, with wind power and industrial robotics also showing strong growth prospects [6] - Short-term supply and demand dynamics are shifting, with expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, providing support for prices [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with the "anti-involution" concept leading the gains, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which has seen significant trading volume and net subscriptions for the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) reaching 15 million shares [1][3] - Over the past five trading days, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has experienced net inflows for four days, totaling 137 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from a weaker US dollar and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, with the sector's financial attributes being highlighted as a key driver for investment [3][4] Group 2 - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to a drop in the US dollar index and a strong performance in non-ferrous metal prices [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is emerging from a seasonal downturn, with inventory levels approaching a turning point, suggesting a favorable environment for investment due to both commodity and financial attributes [4] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is noted for its high copper content at 31%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [5] Group 3 - Key companies within the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF include Zijin Mining (15.8% weight), Northern Rare Earth (5.0% weight), and China Aluminum (4.4% weight), among others, indicating a diversified exposure to various non-ferrous metals [6][7] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous sector is considered attractive, supported by multiple favorable factors such as supply-side contraction policies and new demand drivers from economic cycles [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

作者：行情君 截至2025年中报，洛阳钼业营业总收入947.73亿元、净利润86.71亿元。 本文源自：金融界 8月25日，洛阳钼业(03993)盘中上涨5.84%，截至09:30，报11.42元/股，成交3772.03万元。 洛阳栾川钼业集团主要从事有色金属矿采选及加工、矿产贸易业务，是全球领先的铜、钴、钼、钨和磷 肥生产商。公司在2024年位居《财富》中国500强第145位，并致力于通过全球化发展和现代化治理，实 现成为世界级资源公司的愿景。 ...