7月31日，洛阳钼业(03993)盘中下跌4.22%，截至10:42，报9.08元/股，成交3.01亿元。 洛阳栾川钼业集团主要从事有色金属矿采选及加工、矿产贸易业务，是全球领先的铜、钴、钼、钨和磷 肥生产商。公司在2024年位居《财富》中国500强第145位，并致力于通过全球化发展和现代化治理，实 现成为世界级资源公司的愿景。 截至2025年一季报，洛阳钼业营业总收入460.06亿元、净利润39.46亿元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a historic drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a drop of 4.48%, trading at 21.3 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) decreased by 4.09%, with a price of 15.94 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) fell by 3.48%, priced at 9.15 HKD [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - The tariff is expected to affect the recent influx of copper into the U.S., which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs caused U.S. copper prices to rise significantly compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper shipments to the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, leading to a record high in U.S. copper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is a significant player in the non-ferrous metal mining industry, focusing on various metals including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, and copper, with a comprehensive integrated industrial chain [2]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally and the largest tungsten producer, as well as the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [2]. - The company is also the second-largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in Brazil, holding 100% indirect equity in the CIL phosphate mine, covering the entire phosphate industry chain [2]. - The company was established on December 22, 1999, and went public on October 9, 2012, with its main business involving the mining, selection, smelting, deep processing, and trading of precious metals [6]. Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 90.47% to 3.946 billion yuan [7]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 21.562 billion yuan, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [8]. Recent Developments - The company has a 30% stake in the 60,000-ton nickel metal wet smelting project in Indonesia, which began production in December last year and is currently ramping up capacity [2]. - The NPM copper mine in Australia, where the company holds an 80% stake, produced 16,000 ounces of gold in 2022, with a production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [2]. Market Activity - On July 30, the company's stock rose by 0.97%, with a trading volume of 2.006 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.22%, bringing the total market capitalization to 199.823 billion yuan [1].

投资建议：降息预期存在不确定性，短期内铜价在美国关税影响下冲高，但伦敦、上海 等市场可能存在短期供给不足的冲击。建议关注有成长性和增长潜力的工业金属龙头，紫金 矿业（600988.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、西部矿业（601168.SH）。 美联储降息预期对主要金属品种价格形成较强支撑，美国铜关税的生效落地短期内可能 对全球不同市场价格产生冲击。维持有色金属行业"推荐"评级。 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗 普及其内阁成员等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至 1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国 总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题 上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在 特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只是时间问题，而目前内部 分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、铜等金属的金 融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移 ...

洛阳钼业股价创出历史新高，截至9:46，该股上涨1.73%，股价报9.41元，成交量4998.05万股，成交金 额4.69亿元，换手率0.29%，该股最新A股总市值达1643.07亿元，该股A股流通市值1643.07亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，洛阳钼业所属的有色金属行业，目前整体跌幅为0.05%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有44只，涨幅居前的有金钼股份、斯瑞新材、上大股份等，涨幅分别为4.52%、2.67%、2.27%。 股价下跌的有92只，跌幅居前的有中钨高新、惠同新材、盛和资源等，跌幅分别为6.32%、4.69%、 4.49%。 公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入460.06亿元，同比下降0.25%，实现净利润 39.46亿元，同比增长90.47%，基本每股收益为0.1800元，加权平均净资产收益率5.49%。 7月15日公司发布上半年业绩预告，预计实现净利润82.00亿元至91.00亿元，同比变动区间为 51.37%~67.98%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 两融数据显示，该股最新（7月29日）两融余额为19.49亿元，其中，融资余额为19.34亿元，近10日减少 1.80 ...

Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a change range of -5 BP to 2 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts for medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds rising, while corporate bonds, company bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds has increased, with all varieties showing growth; however, credit bond yields have risen by 4-14 BP [2] - The report suggests that despite the recent yield adjustments, the conditions for a trend reversal in credit bonds remain insufficient, but the support from insufficient supply and strong demand may lead to a potential decline in yields [2] - The report emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic approach to current configurations and trading strategies, focusing on the trends in interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - In the steel sector, prices have rebounded, leading to some replenishment intentions downstream, with macro "anti-involution" news positively impacting steel prices [5] - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to insufficient fundamental support, with attention on the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting and US-China trade negotiations [5] - Lithium prices have been positively influenced by "anti-involution" news, but there is still significant pressure from oversupply, necessitating caution regarding speculative demand [5] - The rare earth sector has seen a significant increase in exports, with June exports rising by 32.02% month-on-month, indicating potential for further price strength due to improving export demand [5] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [6]

Group 1 - As of July 29, 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price was 9.25 yuan, up 0.98% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.4532 million shares and a transaction amount of 1.334 billion yuan [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum is a leading global producer of tungsten, molybdenum, copper, and cobalt, with operations across Asia, Africa, South America, and Australia [1] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has implemented a cobalt export ban since February 24, which was extended for an additional three months on June 21, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The cobalt export ban has had a limited impact on Luoyang Molybdenum's operations in the first half of the year, although its trading subsidiary IXM has been unable to fulfill certain contractual obligations [1] - Customs data indicates that China's imports of cobalt products from the Democratic Republic of the Congo decreased by 60.8% month-on-month in June [1] - Industry insiders predict a potential shortage of cobalt raw materials from August to September, which may lead to further increases in cobalt prices [1]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the non-ferrous metals industry is also rated as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices, driven by downstream replenishment intentions and macroeconomic "anti-involution" messages, while cautioning against price volatility due to speculative demand [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for demand growth in special steel sectors due to high-altitude corrosion environments [3][16] - The report notes that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to insufficient fundamental support, despite positive macro sentiment [3][48] - Lithium prices are supported by "anti-involution" news, but there are concerns about oversupply and speculative demand [3][54] - The report indicates a significant increase in China's rare earth exports in June, with expectations for further growth in July [3][67] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel prices have rebounded, with downstream purchasing intentions increasing; however, speculative demand may lead to price fluctuations [4][16] - As of July 25, the total steel inventory was 13.30 million tons, down 0.11% from the previous week and down 22.78% year-on-year [26] - The average price index for steel on July 25 was 3,606.18 CNY/ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [39] Copper - The copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices; however, the market is currently in a seasonal lull [41] - As of July 25, LME copper spot prices were 9,800 USD/ton, up 1.25% from the previous week [46] Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure from seasonal demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation; however, macroeconomic sentiment remains positive [48] - As of July 25, LME aluminum spot prices were 2,700 USD/ton, up 2.53% from the previous week [49] Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to reduced risk aversion following trade agreements between the US and other countries [51] - As of July 25, COMEX gold closed at 3,338.50 USD/oz, down 0.51% from the previous week [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see accelerated capacity clearance, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising to 74,000 CNY/ton, up 12.12% from the previous week [55] - The report highlights the potential for new demand in the lithium sector due to government policies supporting solar energy [54] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report notes a significant increase in the price of light rare earths, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 513,500 CNY/ton, up 7.31% from the previous week [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 188,000 CNY/ton, up 4.44% from the previous week [69]

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Rare Metals ETF has a turnover rate of 6.87% with a transaction volume of 83.93 million yuan, and it ranks first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 131 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 1.22 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares reached 1.843 billion, a three-month high, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past six days, the Rare Metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a single-day peak of 50.91 million yuan, totaling 177 million yuan in net inflows [3] - As of July 28, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 59.46% over the past year, ranking 267 out of 2938 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.09% [3] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06%, averaging a monthly return of 7.76% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 9.87% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Market Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the domestic "anti-involution" policies are intensifying, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to strong performance in the metals sector [4] - The price of polysilicon has successfully recovered, boosting market confidence, which has spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [4] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases, such as stricter mining rights reviews for lithium and strategic enhancements and shortages for rare earths [4] - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned cobalt exports since February, with extensions in June, leading to a depletion of in-transit cobalt mines, and anticipates that the peak season in September and October will drive inventory reductions [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index as of June 30, 2025, include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Western Superconducting, Zhongmin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 54.07% of the index [4]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports due to concerns over global market oversupply, which has been extended for an additional three months [1][2] - The suspension is expected to significantly alter the global cobalt supply-demand landscape by 2025, potentially leading to an upward shift in cobalt prices [1][5] - China's imports of cobalt from the DRC have seen a substantial decline, with June imports dropping by 60.8% compared to May, indicating tightening supply [2][3] Group 2 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co. have stated that the export ban will have limited impact on their operations in the short term, as they have sufficient inventory to manage through the supply disruption [3][5] - The ban is expected to lead to a depletion of existing inventories, which may result in a tighter supply situation for cobalt in the coming months, particularly in August and September [5][6] - Cobalt prices have already shown a significant increase following the DRC's export ban, rising from 166,000 CNY/ton to 250,000 CNY/ton within approximately 20 days, reflecting a 50.6% increase [6]