Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing fluctuations in financing and stock performance, with a notable decrease in financing net purchases and a high level of short selling, indicating potential market concerns about the company's stock [1][2]. Financing Summary - On July 25, Luoyang Molybdenum had a financing buy amount of 146 million yuan and a financing repayment of 189 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 43.54 million yuan [1]. - The total financing balance as of July 25 is 1.989 billion yuan, which accounts for 1.23% of the circulating market value, indicating a low financing balance compared to the past year [1]. - The company’s short selling activity on the same day included a repayment of 93,600 shares and a sale of 56,400 shares, with a total selling amount of approximately 519,400 yuan, while the short selling balance is at 13.6 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The revenue composition of the company includes refined metal products (58.08%), concentrate products (30.34%), copper (19.65%), cobalt (4.10%), molybdenum (2.96%), and other minor contributions [2]. Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 90.47% to 3.946 billion yuan [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Luoyang Molybdenum has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 578 million shares, a decrease of 41.905 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable shareholders include various ETFs, all of which have seen a reduction in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations and a rapid price correction due to regulatory actions against non-compliant mining practices [1] - Copper prices have shown a mixed performance, with market sentiment supporting price increases, but demand remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2][15] - Aluminum prices have risen due to external market influences and domestic production adjustments, although concerns about future demand in the photovoltaic sector persist [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases driven by heightened risk aversion amid global trade uncertainties [4][30] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, supported by resource scarcity and cautious market activity [5][63] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, with significant price increases for light and heavy rare earth elements [6][41] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have fluctuated, with a recent increase to 78,710 CNY/ton, but market demand remains weak, leading to cautious trading [2][15] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,630 CNY/ton, driven by external market trends and domestic production recovery, despite concerns in the photovoltaic sector [3][24] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 780.69 CNY/gram, up 0.83%, and silver at 9,291 CNY/kg, up 2.02%, influenced by global trade tensions [4][30] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have stabilized, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid steady production [41][42] - Cobalt: Prices have increased slightly, but demand remains weak, leading to limited trading activity [43][44] - Tin: Prices have risen to 34,750 USD/ton, supported by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [53][54] - Tungsten: Prices have increased due to resource scarcity, with black tungsten averaging 186,500 CNY/ton [5][63] - Molybdenum: Prices have shown a mixed trend, with recent increases due to supply disruptions and market optimism [68][69] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is witnessing a significant recovery, with prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising to 514,000 CNY/ton [6][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is seeking to establish a cobalt pricing mechanism to promote domestic processing of cobalt, following a ban on cobalt exports [1][2] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt supply, and the export ban was implemented after cobalt prices fell significantly and production increased [1][2] - Since the export ban, cobalt prices have risen nearly 60%, while the price of cobalt hydroxide has more than doubled [1] Group 2 - The DRC does not want cobalt prices to exceed $40 per pound, a level seen in 2018 and 2022, and aims to stabilize cobalt prices [2] - China’s imports of cobalt intermediate products dropped over 60% in June, marking a significant decline since the DRC's export ban [2] - The DRC and the U.S. are working to establish a strategic partnership to attract more American investment in its mineral resources, including copper, cobalt, lithium, and tantalum [2] Group 3 - Rising cobalt prices may lead to increased battery costs, forcing automakers to raise prices and delaying the affordability of electric vehicles [3] - Strict control measures and rising prices could push electric vehicle battery manufacturers to shift towards cobalt-free battery technologies [3] - Companies like BYD and CATL are expanding their lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production, with Tesla using LFP batteries for 50% of its global sales in 2023 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has achieved significant growth, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 138th in the Fortune China 500 list. The company is focused on sustainable growth through resource acquisitions and project expansions [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 8.2 billion and 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [4]. - The average price of LME copper increased by only 2.5% in the first half, yet the company anticipates a 12.68% increase in copper production to approximately 360,000 tons [4][8]. - The cobalt price has rebounded significantly due to an export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the average price rising from $9.95 per pound to over $16 per pound [5][6]. Group 2: Project Development - The company maintains its production capacity targets for the TFM and KFM projects, with a goal of reaching 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper capacity by 2028 [10][15]. - The Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador is expected to start production before 2029, with an average annual gold output of approximately 370,000 ounces (11.5 tons) [11][15]. - The company has a strong cash flow, with operating cash inflow expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan in 2024, a 108.4% increase year-on-year [12]. Group 3: Acquisition Strategy - The company is focusing on acquisitions primarily in copper and gold, while also considering opportunities in other metals [13]. - The company does not prioritize short-term price fluctuations but evaluates acquisition opportunities based on a long-term perspective of 10 to 20 years [2][14]. - The company has identified multiple potential acquisition projects and is well-prepared for future resource acquisitions [13][15].

Group 1 - The core index, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, has decreased by 0.37% as of July 25, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including leading gains from companies like Lianxu Electronics and Huaren Health, while companies like Yaxiang Integration and Zhejiang Construction led the declines [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) also fell by 0.37%, with the latest price at 1.07 yuan. Over the past week, the ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 3.47%, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - In terms of liquidity, the Free Cash Flow ETF had a turnover of 0.91% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 36.4183 million yuan. The average daily transaction volume over the past week reached 335 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has attracted a total of 170 million yuan in the last five trading days, with its latest scale reaching 4.007 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - In Q2 2025, active equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings in this sector rising to 2.21% of total stock investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Sector Performance - Active equity public funds primarily increased their positions in the A-share precious metals and rare metals sectors, focusing on major commodity leaders such as gold and copper, while also significantly increasing holdings in rare earth and silver stocks [1][4]. - The market value of heavy holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector rose by 0.03 percentage points from Q1 2025, marking two consecutive quarters of increased investment in this industry [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q2 2025, the market value proportions of various non-ferrous metal sub-sectors within active equity public funds were as follows: copper (0.89%), aluminum (0.19%), lead-zinc (0.11%), gold (0.48%), rare earth (0.07%), lithium (0.03%), and others, with notable changes in their respective holdings compared to Q1 2025 [3]. - The top ten A-share non-ferrous metal stocks held by active equity public funds accounted for 73.31% of the total market value of all heavy holdings in this sector, reflecting a 0.08 percentage point increase from Q1 2025 [4].

Group 1 - As of July 24, the metal cobalt sector rose by 3.93%, ranking fifth among concept sectors, with 32 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers included China Electric Power Construction, Tibet Mining, and Hainan Mining, which hit the daily limit, while Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Ganfeng Lithium saw increases of 9.44%, 8.22%, and 8.00% respectively [1] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 8.23 billion yuan in capital, with 29 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Tibet Mining, with a net inflow of 4.33 billion yuan, followed by Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, and Luoyang Molybdenum with net inflows of 3.53 billion yuan, 2.72 billion yuan, and 2.25 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - In terms of net inflow ratios, Tibet Mining, Hainan Mining, and Zhongjin Lingnan led with 31.43%, 24.65%, and 15.09% respectively [3] - The trading volume for Tibet Mining was 43,265.75 million yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 11.36% [3]