Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - **Liquor**: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - **Yellow Wine**: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - **Beer**: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - **White Liquor**: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - **Beer**: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 1.35% on September 30, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Sector Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 303.80, up 4.56% with a trading volume of 30,800 lots and a transaction value of 260.6 million [1] - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 12.76, up 3.24% with a trading volume of 89,700 lots and a transaction value of 113 million [1] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 9.87, up 2.39% with a trading volume of 55,800 lots and a transaction value of 54.32 million [1] - Other notable performers include Miaokelan (600882) up 1.33% and Wewei (600300) up 1.21% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 61.14 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 52.40 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows into Yili (600887) with 84.83 million and Dongpeng Beverage with 80.06 million [3] - Liziyuan (605337) also attracted 15.31 million from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查工商信息显示，近日，东鹏饮料（605499）营销(江苏)有限公司成立，法定 代表人为林木港，注册资本1000万元，经营范围为食品销售、市场营销策划、销售代理、采购代理服 务、品牌管理、包装材料及制品销售、企业管理、货物进出口、技术进出口。股东信息显示，该公司由 东鹏饮料全资持股。 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.9% on September 29, with Yangyuan Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including: - Chi Yuan Beverage (603156) at 30.30, up 7.68% with a trading volume of 446,200 shares and a turnover of 1.337 billion [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) at 290.55, up 1.75% with a trading volume of 16,700 shares and a turnover of 480 million [1] - Other stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) and Huangshi Group (002329) also saw modest increases of 1.47% and 1.13% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 224 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Institutional net inflow for Dongpeng Beverage at 56.24 million, while retail saw a net outflow of 55.29 million [3] - Bright Dairy (600597) had a net inflow of 9.92 million from institutional investors, with retail outflows totaling 8.16 million [3]

Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.

宗馥莉计划启用娃小宗新品牌的消息在业内引发强烈震动。9月27日，高盛发布深度研究报告，详细分析了娃哈哈商标归属纠纷可能带来的影响。高盛预 测，娃小宗与娃哈哈品牌之争，堪比当年王老吉大战加多宝，这一事件或将重构中国瓶装水格局，农夫山泉有望成为最大受益者，而华润饮料、东鹏饮料 （605499）也将间接受益。在报告中，高盛将农夫山泉12个月目标价从之前的53.2港元上调至60.5港元。 Part.01 娃哈哈换标3000亿瓶装水市场生变 通过分析红牛、王老吉/加多宝等过往品牌纠纷案例，高盛研究发现，涉及商标/所有权纠纷的品牌，通常会受到长期负面影响，这将改变品类竞争格局， 并为主要竞争对手提供市占率提升机会。 2016年红牛(中国)因授权纠纷，全年销售额同比下降中双位数；2017年同比下降10%-20%；2017-2024年红牛(中国)的复合年增长率仅为低个位数。与之对 比，其直接竞争对手东鹏饮料展现出强劲市占率提升能力——市占率从2018年的约15%提升至2024年的超30%。 2016-2017年，加多宝与广州医药集团(王老吉商标所有者)就王老吉商标归属爆发纠纷，期间加多宝即饮茶业务销售额同比下降10%-20% ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

Summary of Dongpeng Beverage Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Dongpeng Beverage has become the second-largest player in the energy drink industry, surpassing Red Bull with nearly 30% market share [2][3] - The company has expanded from the Guangdong and surrounding regions to a nationwide presence, diversifying its product line to include energy drinks, sports drinks, ready-to-drink tea, and coffee [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Network Expansion**: By the end of 2024, Dongpeng Beverage will have 4 million sales outlets, with an expected increase to 4.5 million by the end of 2025, significantly outpacing competitors like Xiangpiaopiao and Yangyuan [2][6] - **Regional Growth**: The company has achieved over 50% growth in regions such as Southwest, Central China, and North China [2][7] - **Product Structure Growth**: Hydration products are projected to reach 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, doubling to 3.2-3.5 billion yuan in 2025. The new juice tea product's annual target has been raised to 700-800 million yuan [2][7] - **Business Model**: Dongpeng's business model is similar to Nongfu Spring, focusing on long lifecycle products to nurture new offerings. The energy drink category has high stickiness and lifecycle characteristics, with favorable ROE, net profit, and gross margin [2][8] - **Market Position**: Since its IPO in May 2021, Dongpeng has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% in revenue and earnings per share (EPS), with a consistent price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 30 [3][4] Additional Important Insights - **Future Growth Projections**: The company anticipates a 15-20% CAGR for specific items until around 2027, despite potential growth slowdowns due to regulatory restrictions on certain products in schools [10] - **Diversification Strategy**: Dongpeng is actively exploring overseas markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with significant growth potential despite current small volumes [10][15] - **Performance of Hydration Products**: Hydration products have shown remarkable growth, with sales increasing from 400 million yuan in 2023 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 3.4-3.5 billion yuan in 2025 [12] - **Juice Tea Market Challenges**: The juice tea market is competitive, with major brands like Master Kong and Uni-President holding significant market shares. Dongpeng is cautious about profitability in this segment, setting a sales target of 700-800 million yuan for the year [13] - **Overall Performance Expectations**: For the current year, Dongpeng expects a revenue growth of approximately 33%, reaching 21 billion yuan, and a profit increase of about 37%, exceeding 4.6 billion yuan [14] Conclusion Dongpeng Beverage is positioned for significant growth in the energy drink and hydration markets, with a robust expansion strategy and a focus on product diversification. The company’s strong sales network and innovative business model provide a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market.