Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, affecting 249 products, which may accelerate the exit of weaker companies and optimize industry capacity structure [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The A-share "photovoltaic equipment" sector surged by 2.72% following the announcement, with notable increases in stock prices for major companies such as JinkoSolar (3.56%), LONGi Green Energy (4.57%), JA Solar (3.4%), Trina Solar (8.62%), and Tongwei Co. (2.11%) [1] Group 2: Financial Health of Leading Companies - Leading photovoltaic companies exhibit high asset-liability ratios, with JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Tongwei Co. all exceeding 70%, and JA Solar and Trina Solar nearing 78% [2] - As of Q3 2025, JinkoSolar reported an asset-liability ratio of 74.48%, LONGi Green Energy at 62.43%, JA Solar at 77.9%, Trina Solar at 77.99%, and Tongwei Co. at 71.95% [3] - JinkoSolar had cash and cash equivalents of 22.18 billion, with 5 billion restricted for guarantees, while LONGi Green Energy maintained a lower short-term borrowing of 300 million [5] Group 3: Accounts Receivable and Payable - The five leading companies collectively had accounts payable nearing 200 billion, with accounts receivable totaling approximately 72.3 billion, resulting in a significant payment demand [8] - The accounts receivable turnover days increased for several companies, with LONGi Green Energy at 69.31 days, JA Solar at 67.02 days, and Trina Solar at 82.38 days [7] Group 4: Profitability Challenges - All leading companies faced significant losses in the first three quarters of 2025, with JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and Tongwei Co. reporting net losses of 4.543 billion, 4.454 billion, 3.453 billion, 4.315 billion, and 5.471 billion respectively [10] - The gross profit margins varied, with Trina Solar at 5.09% and JA Solar at -2.6%, indicating a wide disparity in profitability [11] Group 5: Debt Structure and Financing - Tongwei Co. had a notably high long-term debt of 53.78 billion, while JinkoSolar's financial expenses were relatively low due to favorable foreign exchange gains [12] - The actual controllers of LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. had some share pledges, with LONGi at 14.62% and Tongwei at 28.36%, indicating potential financial constraints [14]

Group 1 - JinkoSolar's stock increased by 3.56% on January 12, with a trading volume of 1.559 billion yuan, and a net financing purchase of 6.2815 million yuan for the day [1] - As of January 12, the total margin balance for JinkoSolar was 1.085 billion yuan, which is 1.69% of its circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - The company repaid 69,700 shares of margin loans and sold 352,800 shares on January 12, with a selling amount of 2.2582 million yuan, reflecting a high margin balance [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, JinkoSolar had 77,300 shareholders, an increase of 4.14%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 3.97% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, JinkoSolar reported a revenue of 47.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.92 billion yuan, a significant decline of 422.67% [2] Group 3 - JinkoSolar has distributed a total of 3.355 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.125 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 306 million shares, a decrease of 132 million shares from the previous period [3] - The sixth-largest circulating shareholder, E Fund's SSE STAR 50 ETF, held 147 million shares, down by 18.2429 million shares, while the eighth-largest, Huaxia's SSE STAR 50 ETF, held 141 million shares, a decrease of 7.88863 million shares [3]

Macroeconomic Insights - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, down from a revised 4.5% in November, indicating a temporary halt in concerns over job market deterioration[11] - The US manufacturing PMI declined while the services PMI increased, reflecting mixed economic signals[7] - Consumer confidence in the US continued to recover in January, with inflation expectations slightly rising[7] Market Trends - Risk assets generally rose in the week of January 2-9, 2026, with major economies' stock markets and commodity prices increasing[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices fell by 0.1%[7] - The dollar index increased by 0.7%, with the USD/CNY exchange rate at 6.98, indicating a slight appreciation of the yuan[7] Sector Performance - The AI application sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% for the AI industry and over 63% for the large model market[23] - The consumer electronics sector, particularly smart glasses, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected 110% year-on-year increase in global shipments in the first half of 2025[38] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to overweight A/H shares due to multiple factors supporting Chinese equity performance, including an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and a more aggressive economic policy[18] - Gold is recommended for overweight allocation due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties[20] - The report suggests a cautious approach to oil investments, recommending a lower allocation due to expected price pressures from geopolitical events and US policy directions[20]

1月9日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，宣布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏产品增值税出口退税。这意味着光伏 的"退税补贴时代"即将结束。 源：中华人民共和国财政部 出口退税指退返出口企业在国内缴纳的增值税，由于企业在海外国家还要缴税，为避免重复缴税，提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税 政策。 现行光伏产品的增值税出口退税的税率为9%。2024年11月15日，财政部、税务总局发布关于调整出口退税政策的公告称，2024年12月1日起，光伏产品出 口退税从13%下降至9%。 行业分析机构SMM分析，此次出口退税明确取消时间后，光伏产品尤其以光伏组件产品受到冲击最大，其主要影响为企业直接成本增加以及价格竞争力 度下降。"相当于每块210R组件，出口利润将减少46~51元/块，企业出口毛利率将被压缩，企业出口成本增加。"SMM光伏分析师郑天鸿表示。 中国光伏行业协会指出，自2024年以来，我国光伏产品在海外市场面临日益激烈的恶性竞争，出口价格持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。部分企业在出口 过程中，不仅低价竞争还将出口退税额折算为对外议价空间，导致原本用于对冲国内增值税 ...

电池产品的调整相对缓和，将从2026年4月1日起将退税率由9%下调至6%，并在2027年1月1日全面取 消。这一政策调整的背景是新能源行业面临的内外双重压力。 国内光伏与锂电池相关产品的全球产能占比已近绝对主导，光伏上游在全球产能中占比超95%、中游超 90%、组件超80%，锂电池则约占三分之二。 来源：新浪财经 财政部和国家税务总局日前宣布，光伏产品自2026年4月1日起，将全面取消增值税出口退税。这距离 2024年11月出口退税率从13%降至9%，仅一年有余。 根据中国光伏行业协会咨询专家的测算，仅2025年1-10月，中国光伏出口额为244.2亿美元，按9%的退 税率计算，涉及退税额约22亿美元（约153亿元人民币）。 中国光伏行业协会认为，部分企业在出口过程中，将出口退税额折算为对外议价空间，导致原本用于对 冲国内增值税负担的财政资金在议价环节被让渡给境外采购方。 政策调整对企业的影响程度，与其获得的出口退税额直接相关。在光伏组件四大厂商中，晶科能源2025 年上半年应收出口退税款期末账面价值达9.13亿元，位居首位。 天合光能2025年上半年应收增值税出口退税期初账面价值为0.21亿元，晶澳科技同期 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

国投证券研报指出，近日，晶科能源宣布与晶泰科技签署AI+机器人高通量叠层太阳能电池研发项目合 作协议。认为公司作为光伏技术创新的领先者，此次战略合作有望加速公司在钙钛矿叠层电池技术的商 业化进程，建立先发优势,加快获取新增市场份额。同时储能业务的高速增长有望快速成长为公司的第 二增长曲线，在未来贡献显著的业绩增量。选择光伏一体化组件龙头隆基绿能、晶澳科技、天合光能作 为对比。隆基绿能是BC技术代表的龙头企业，与公司的TOPCon技术同为N型替代P型浪潮中的标志性 技术；晶澳科技专注于光伏一体化业务发展，同样具备较高的TOPCon产能及业务布局；天合光能在光 伏一体化业务之余，更早布局储能业务，跟公司业务结构有一定可比性。结合可比公司情况，鉴于公司 在TOPCon领域的领先地位以及快速成长的储能业务布局，给予公司2026年35倍PE，12个月目标价为 7.35元，给予"买入-A"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar is focusing on advancing its N-type TOPCon technology and aims to maintain its leadership position in the solar energy sector, with significant investments planned for future growth [2]. Company Overview - JinkoSolar Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of solar photovoltaic modules, cells, and wafers, providing high-quality solar energy products globally [3][7]. - The company was established on December 13, 2006, and went public on January 26, 2022 [7]. Business Performance - As of September 30, 2025, JinkoSolar reported a revenue of 47.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.92 billion yuan, a significant decline of 422.67% [7][8]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.355 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.125 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Technological Advancements - JinkoSolar has made substantial progress in its N-type TOPCon battery production, achieving a mass production efficiency of 24.7% at its Hefei factory, which is now operating at full capacity [2]. - The company is also actively developing new technologies, including IBC and perovskite batteries, and has set a world record for the efficiency of its perovskite/TOPCon tandem cells [2]. Market Activity - On January 12, JinkoSolar's stock rose by 3.56%, with a trading volume of 1.559 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.42%, bringing its total market capitalization to 64.033 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 28.4871 million yuan from major investors, indicating a reduction in holdings over the past two days [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

Group 1 - JinkoSolar's stock price decreased by 3.29% on January 9, with a trading volume of 1.325 billion yuan, and a net financing buy of -33.61 million yuan for the day [1] - As of January 9, the total margin balance for JinkoSolar was 1.077 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.075 billion yuan, accounting for 1.74% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - The company repaid 521,400 shares of margin trading on January 9, with a margin balance of 1.5029 million yuan, which is below the 10% percentile level for the past year, indicating a low level of short selling [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, JinkoSolar had 77,300 shareholders, an increase of 4.14%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 3.97% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, JinkoSolar reported operating revenue of 47.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 422.67% [2] - Since its A-share listing, JinkoSolar has distributed a total of 3.355 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.125 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]