Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant escalation in AI promotion during the Spring Festival, with major companies like Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba launching massive cash red envelope campaigns to engage users and showcase AI capabilities [1][2][10] - Tencent's Yuanshuo APP initiated a record-breaking 1 billion yuan red envelope campaign, while Baidu followed with a 500 million yuan initiative, and Alibaba's Qianwen APP announced a 3 billion yuan "Spring Festival Treat" plan [2][5][7] - The competition among these tech giants is not just about user acquisition but also about establishing a strong foothold in the AI landscape, with the outcomes of user retention post-festival being crucial for determining market leadership [10][12] Group 2 - The article discusses the underlying "chip war" that supports the AI applications, emphasizing that the high concurrency demands during these promotional events are met by domestic AI chips rather than Nvidia's GPUs [12][13] - The landscape of the Chinese AI chip market is undergoing a dramatic shift, with Nvidia's market share in high-end training chips dropping from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export restrictions, allowing domestic companies to gain ground [14][15][16] - Predictions indicate that by 2026, Huawei is expected to dominate the Chinese AI chip market with a 50% share, while other companies like AMD, Cambricon, and Haiguang will follow with significantly smaller shares [17][18] Group 3 - The rise of domestic AI chips is marked by several companies achieving substantial order volumes, with Huawei Ascend and Baidu Kunlun being among the largest suppliers [23][24] - Despite the rapid growth of domestic AI chips, there remains a significant performance gap compared to Nvidia, prompting a focus on optimizing chip usage and system architecture to enhance competitiveness [25][26][30] - The article concludes that while the promotional activities may end, the advancements in AI chip technology are just beginning, indicating a potential shift in the global AI semiconductor landscape [32][34]

文 | 《财经》特约撰稿人 康国亮 编辑 | 杨秀红 其早盘开盘后跳水，截至午间收盘，股价下跌12.88%至1082.09元/股，创出近半年新低，总市值相较前一交易日减少675亿元，跌至4563亿 元。 消息面上，当日市场上一则传闻对寒武纪股价形成扰动，其大致内容为：寒武纪最近组织了一场小范围交流，据传公司给出2026年营收指引为 200亿元，低于市场预期的500亿元-600亿元。 此前寒武纪董秘办回复投资者热线时，接线工作人员表示："这个（股价波动原因）我们不太清楚，首先市场上很多的传闻，肯定都是假的， 然后二级市场资金、情绪的波动还是比较多的，大家理性对待。" 午间收盘后，寒武纪在其官方微信公众号上正式发布声明，公司关注到2月3日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信息，公 司近期从未组织任何小范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司公开披露的信息为准。公司目前研发进展 顺利，经营稳步推进。 同时，寒武纪在声明中表示，公司相关事项均以公开披露信息为准，请各位投资者提高信息辨别能力，不传播、不采信来源不明或未经核实的 虚假信息。此外，对于任何捏造、散布传播不实信息的行 ...

Core Insights - The dinner hosted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei included key executives from major companies in the AI supply chain, highlighting the importance of collaboration in the industry [2][3] - Huang emphasized the challenges in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, and indicated that the supply chain will be "extremely tight" in 2026 [3][12] - The event showcased the significant market value of the participating companies, collectively exceeding $5 trillion [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, confirmed that TSMC needs to work hard to meet NVIDIA's demand for wafers and CoWoS packaging capacity, with NVIDIA accounting for over 60% of TSMC's CoWoS demand in 2025 [3][4] - Major Taiwanese manufacturers like Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, and Wistron are responsible for assembling NVIDIA's AI supercomputing systems, indicating a clear division of labor within the supply chain [5] - The introduction of liquid cooling solutions by companies like Qihong Technology reflects the increasing power demands of new chips, necessitating advanced thermal management [5][6] Financial Performance - Victory Technology, a PCB manufacturer, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 260.35% to 295.00% year-on-year, driven by high-value product orders related to AI computing [6][7] - Industrial Fulian, a subsidiary of Hon Hai, expects a net profit increase of 51% to 54% for 2025, with a notable growth in cloud service server revenue [7][8] - Companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, are also experiencing substantial growth, with projected net profits increasing by up to 128.17% [8][9] Emerging Competitors - Domestic chip companies like Cambrian are achieving significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 410.87% to 496.02% increase in 2025, marking their first annual profit [10][11] - The rise of domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Moer Technology and Tianxu Zhixin, reflects a shift towards local alternatives in the computing power market, driven by capital market support [11][12] - Huang's comments on the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions suggest ongoing opportunities in the semiconductor sector [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant drop in the stock price of AI chip company Cambricon, which fell nearly 14% during intraday trading, with a market value briefly dropping to around 450 billion yuan [1] - Cambricon's stock closed down 9.18% at 1,128 yuan, while other AI chip companies like Moore Threads and Muxi also experienced declines of 2.65% and 3.08% respectively [1] - In response to the unusual stock price fluctuations, Cambricon issued a statement denying false information circulating about organizational activities and revenue guidance, emphasizing stable operational conditions [1] Group 2 - Cambricon is expected to turn a profit by 2025, but the growth rate for the fourth quarter is anticipated to slow significantly [1] - From an industry perspective, TSMC's 2nm capacity has been fully booked by major global tech companies, including AMD, Google, AWS, and NVIDIA, which have scheduled advanced process capacity releases for the coming years [1] - Some institutions remain optimistic about Cambricon, suggesting it will benefit from the ongoing surge in AI computing power demand, while others express concerns regarding its high valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cambricon, a leading domestic AI chip company, experienced a significant drop of 9.18% on February 3, closing at 1128 yuan per share, largely due to market rumors regarding its revenue projections for 2026 being significantly lower than expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Cambricon's stock price fell sharply, with an intraday decline of up to 14%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 48 billion yuan in one day [1][3]. - The company issued a statement denying the rumors about its revenue guidance and emphasized that it has not organized any small-scale communications recently [1][3]. - Despite a slight recovery in stock price after the statement, negative market sentiment persisted [1]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Financial Outlook - Cambricon projected its 2025 annual revenue to be between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02%, with a net profit forecast of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan [3]. - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 245 million to 545 million yuan, indicating a significant decline compared to analyst expectations of 613 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Industry Context and Competitive Landscape - The adjustment in the AI chip sector reflects both domestic and international market pressures, with concerns about the saturation of AI infrastructure driven by large language models [2]. - The domestic market is seeing an influx of new AI chip companies, which may dilute Cambricon's market position and raise questions about its valuation and future performance [2]. - Other companies in the sector, such as Tenstorrent and Mozi Technology, are actively launching new products and providing detailed updates on their technological advancements, contrasting with Cambricon's limited communication [4].

其早盘开盘后跳水，截至午间收盘，股价下跌12.88%至1082.09元/股，创出近半年新低，总市值相较前一 交易日减少675亿元，跌至4563亿元。 受此影响，其他国产AI芯片股也同步走低，沐曦股份-U（688802.SH）午盘收跌5.11%至502.99元/股、摩 尔线程-U（688256.SH）下跌4.7%至543.19元/股、海光信息下跌2.33%至246.41元/股。港股市场上，其他 两家国产GPU（图形处理器）企业则涨跌不一，天数智芯（9903.HK）下跌0.81%至171.4港元/股、壁仞科 技则上涨0.3%至32.9港元/股。 01 2月3日，国产AI（人工智能）芯片龙头股寒武纪-U（688256.SH）股价出现大幅震荡。 消息面上，当日市场上一则传闻对寒武纪股价形成扰动，其大致内容为：寒武纪最近组织了一场小范围 交流，据传公司给出2026年营收指引为200亿元，低于市场预期的500亿元-600亿元。 此前寒武纪董秘办回复投资者热线时，接线工作人员表示："这个（股价波动原因）我们不太清楚，首先 市场上很多的传闻，肯定都是假的，然后二级市场资金、情绪的波动还是比较多的，大家理性对待。" 午间收盘后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6-7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02%, and a net profit of 1.85-2.15 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The demand for AI computing power continues to rise, and the maturity of the cloud product line is driving large-scale commercialization across various sectors, including telecommunications, finance, and the internet [1][3] - The company's quarterly revenue is projected to increase, with Q4 2025 revenue estimated between 1.393 billion and 2.393 billion yuan, showing a sequential growth from Q3 2025 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.368 billion, 13.091 billion, and 20.953 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.062 billion, 4.363 billion, and 7.018 billion yuan [3][5] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 4.89 yuan in 2025, increasing to 10.35 yuan in 2026 and 16.64 yuan in 2027 [5][10] - The net asset return rate is projected to improve significantly, reaching 18.0% in 2025 and 30.7% in 2027 [5][10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned in the semiconductor industry, with leading technology in computing chips and accelerated customer adoption, enhancing business resilience and performance [3][6] - The launch of the Cambricon NeuWare software platform supports rapid migration and optimization of AI models, establishing a comprehensive system from self-developed chip architecture to high-performance software [2]

"寒武纪科技"发布严正声明： 我公司关注到今日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信息，公司近期从 未组织任何小范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司 公开披露的信息为准。公司目前研发进展顺利，经营稳步推进。 在此，公司提醒广大投资者，我公司相关事项均以公开披露信息为准，请各位投资者提高信 息辨别能力，不传播、不采信来源不明或未经核实的虚假信息。此外，对于任何捏造、散布 传播不实信息的行为，公司将保留追究相关人员法律责任的权利。 上周五晚间发布2025年业绩预告后，寒武纪(688256.SH)股价本周一下跌，今日盘中又跌 超13%，市值回落到4600亿元以下。 近日有市场传闻称， 寒武纪小范围交流给出2026年营收200亿元的估计，远低于市场 300~500亿元预期。 2月3日午间，就"交流会给出200亿元年营收预计"的真实性，记者以 投资者身份致电寒武纪证券事务代表，对方表示， 网上传播的关于2026业绩指引的相关信 息应该都是假的， 相关信息以公司公开披露的为准。 寒武纪预计， 2025年应该是该公司首个实现盈利的年度。寒武纪自2024年第四季度以来 实 现 多 ...

在声明中，寒武纪还提醒广大投资者，称公司相关事项均以公开披露信息为准，请各位投资者提高信 息辨别能力，不传播、不采信来源不明或未经核实的虚假信息。此外，对于任何捏造、散布传播不实 信息的行为，公司表示将保留追究相关人员法律责任的权利。 值得注意的是，作为国产AI芯片龙头，寒武纪近期业绩预告对外释放出积极信号。根据业绩预告显 示，寒武纪2025年预计营收在60亿元至70亿元之间，同比增长幅度高达410.87%至496.02%；预 计净利润为18.5亿元至21.5亿元，成功实现扭亏为盈。 ad 2月3日，寒武纪官方微信公众号"寒武纪科技"对外发布了严正声明。在该声明中，寒武纪表示， 公 司关注到今日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信息，公司近期从未组织任何小 范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司公开披露的信息为准。 公司目前研发进展顺利，经营稳步推进。 寒武纪解释称，业绩大幅增长主要得益于人工智能行业算力需求的持续提升，公司积极推动AI应用 场景落地，带动营业收入实现同比大幅增长。 ...

2月3日，寒武纪低开低走，受"小作文"影响盘中一度跌超14%，并以9.18%的跌幅报收1128元/股，较去年8月 份创下的高位回撤逼近三成。且据近期披露的公募基金2025年四季报，在高位震荡之际，基金经理对该股的持 仓亦有分歧，有基金依旧坚定选择加仓，也有基金将其调出前十大重仓股名单。 有基金经理分析称，在前期涨幅巨大、估值高企的背景下，任何不利传闻都可能成为"压垮骆驼的一根稻草"。 如果所持股票受"小作文"冲击，但核实为不实谣言，且公司基本面、长期成长逻辑未变，短期股价大跌反而可 能是布局机会，会结合估值水平适度加仓或坚定持有。 "寒王"遭遇"小作文"空袭！ 寒武纪重挫 近日有市场传闻称，寒武纪小范围交流给出2026年营收200亿元的估计，远低于市场300亿—500亿元预期。 受"小作文"影响，寒武纪-U今天上午突然跳水，盘中跌幅一度超过14%，成交量明显放大。 2月3日中午，寒武纪官微发文称："公司关注到今日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信 息，公司近期从未组织任何小范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司公 开披露的信息为准。" 下午开盘，随着大盘逐渐升温， ...