打击黑产新高潮，7-8月连续推进4起刑事立案 面对债务压力，上海的王某、北京的苏某、重庆的刘某和烟台的刘某，在近月都不约而同地陷入了金融黑灰产精心编织的陷阱。他们轻信"停息挂账""债务 优化"的美好承诺，支付了高额手续费，却成了黑灰产分子伪造公章、制作虚假证明的工具。 这些债务人原本只想缓解经济压力，却不知不觉中走上了违法道路，涉嫌伪造国家机关公文、印章等犯罪行为。 一张信用卡，承载着用户对美好生活的期待。但当持卡人轻信非法中介"减免债务""征信修复""代理维权"的虚假承诺，却将自己拖入更深的风险漩涡，甚至 滑向违法犯罪的深渊。 这些金融黑灰产非法出售、倒卖个人信息，收取高额"维权"费用，盗刷客户信用卡，套取贷款等，导致持卡人蒙受财产损失、债务雪上加霜；黑灰产还会诱 导客户参与伪造证据材料、敲诈勒索、非法集资等违法违规行为，让客户面临法律责任风险。 以上种种黑灰产乱象不仅侵害金融消费者合法权益，同时也挤占了金融消费者正常投诉资源，更可能扭曲风控数据模型，进而影响信贷决策，扰乱金融市场 正常秩序。近年来，金融监管部门多次发声，联合公安等部门发布多项通告，明确打击非法中介、代理维权等金融黑灰产行为。 面对这场"没 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of illegal activities related to credit cards, such as "anti-collection," "agent rights protection," and "credit repair," has created a disruptive and harmful industry chain that undermines financial order and consumer rights. The banking sector is intensifying efforts to combat these activities through technology, collaboration with law enforcement, and industry cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Nature of Financial "Black and Gray Industry" - The financial "black and gray industry" encompasses illegal activities surrounding credit cards and loans, including fraudulent agent complaints and false credit repair services [2]. - These organizations often use online platforms to promote deceptive advertisements, enticing consumers to hire them for resolving disputes with banks, charging high fees, and sometimes engaging in secondary fraud by stealing personal information [2][3]. - Research indicates that nearly 70% of malicious complaints against credit card businesses are suspected to be orchestrated by "black and gray" organizations [2]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The "black and gray industry" has led to an increase in non-performing loans and heightened challenges in post-loan management for banks, complicating the collection process and damaging the banks' reputations [3]. - Malicious complaints and distortion of facts by these organizations create negative public perceptions of banks, which can adversely affect their operations in the long term [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Collaborative Actions - In March 2025, the Ministry of Public Security and the National Financial Regulatory Administration launched a special crackdown on the financial "black and gray industry," emphasizing the need to address illegal agent complaints and anti-collection activities [3][4]. - Various financial regulatory bodies across provinces have issued risk warnings to consumers about scams related to "debt clearance" and "agent rights protection," urging them to resolve financial disputes through legitimate channels [3]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment in Combatting "Black and Gray Industry" - Banks are leveraging technology to enhance their capabilities in identifying and combating the "black and gray industry," employing big data and artificial intelligence to develop risk models [4][6]. - For instance, Ping An Bank has established a specialized task force to combat the "black industry," achieving significant results, including 20 criminal cases and 28 administrative penalties since its inception in September 2022 [5][6]. Group 5: Future Directions and Challenges - Industry experts believe that ongoing regulatory policies will be crucial for financial institutions to effectively manage the "black and gray industry" [7]. - There are calls for clearer definitions of illegal operating criteria for "agent rights protection" and the inclusion of forged documents in the evidence chain to facilitate prosecution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of personal housing loans in China, highlighting the significant role of major banks in this sector and the rising non-performing loan (NPL) rates due to a sluggish real estate market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Personal Housing Loan Balances - As of June 2025, the total personal housing loan balance in China reached 37.74 trillion yuan, with the top eight banks accounting for 73.17% of this total [2]. - The major banks' personal housing loan balances as of June 2025 are as follows: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 6.05 trillion yuan, China Construction Bank (CCB) at 6.15 trillion yuan, and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) at 4.93 trillion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Performing Loan Rates - The NPL rate for personal housing loans at ICBC increased to 0.86% by June 2025, up from 0.73% at the end of 2024, marking a significant rise over the past five years [4][5]. - Other major banks also reported NPL rates exceeding 0.7%, indicating a widespread issue across the banking sector [5]. Group 3: Measures to Address NPLs - In response to rising NPLs, banks have increasingly turned to the securitization of personal housing loans as a means to manage these assets [8][11]. - The number of securitization projects has grown from 6 in 2020 to 29 in 2024, with 19 projects already completed in the first half of 2025 [8][13]. - The total amount of personal housing NPLs disposed of through securitization reached 70.11 billion yuan in 2024, with 49.59 billion yuan disposed of in the first half of 2025 [11][14]. Group 4: Impact on Housing Market - The increase in securitization and the corresponding rise in the number of disposed loans suggest that banks may become significant sellers of housing, potentially impacting housing prices negatively [16][26]. - The number of housing units associated with disposed NPLs reached 83,779 in the first half of 2025, indicating a substantial volume of properties being sold off [16][26].

Core Viewpoint - The overall asset quality of the banking industry has remained stable and improved, with a focus on risk management and control in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Quality Overview - As of mid-year, the overall asset quality of the banking industry is stable and has further improved, with 20 A-share listed banks showing a decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios compared to the beginning of the year [2][3]. - Among the listed banks, Xian Bank, Qilu Bank, and Chongqing Bank reported the most significant reductions in NPL ratios, with decreases of 12, 10, and 8 basis points, respectively [4][5]. - Conversely, some banks, including Guizhou Bank and Minsheng Bank, experienced increases in their NPL ratios compared to the beginning of the year [6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Risks - There is a notable upward trend in NPL ratios in specific sectors, particularly in corporate real estate and retail personal loans [7][8]. - Qingnong Bank reported a significant increase in its real estate NPL ratio, rising by 14.15 percentage points to 21.32%, with real estate NPLs now comprising 61.54% of its total NPLs [8]. - Guizhou Bank also saw a rise in its real estate NPL ratio, which increased by 70 basis points to 1.75% [8]. Group 3: Retail Credit Concerns - In the retail credit sector, there has been an increase in NPL ratios for personal consumption loans and credit cards, with 8 out of 14 banks reporting higher NPL ratios for credit card receivables compared to the beginning of the year [9][10]. - Chongqing Bank's credit card NPL ratio increased by 1.15 percentage points to 4.19%, while Lanzhou Bank's rose by 1.06 percentage points to 2.85% [9]. - Among 12 banks disclosing personal consumption loan NPL ratios, 7 reported increases, with notable rises from China Merchants Bank and Lanzhou Bank [10]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Banks are increasingly prioritizing risk management, with several executives emphasizing the need for enhanced risk control measures and digital risk management capabilities [11][12]. - Beijing Bank plans to strengthen its provisioning efforts and improve the management of new NPLs, while ICBC expects a slowdown in the deterioration of personal consumption loans due to supportive economic policies [11]. - Industry leaders, including those from Industrial Bank and China Merchants Bank, are focusing on risk mitigation in real estate and credit card sectors, indicating a shift from high incidence to a more controlled environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment and the decline in asset yield levels have made wealth management products a core solution for investors seeking enhanced returns [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Ping An Wealth Management aims to pursue "absolute returns" and provide clients with a "better experience on top of stability" through a "platform + industrialization" investment management model [1][2] - The company emphasizes a steady approach to asset allocation, avoiding blind pursuit of market trends, and instead focusing on multi-asset and multi-strategy combinations to deliver sustainable long-term returns [1][3] Group 2: Market Landscape - As of June, there are 41,800 wealth management products in the market, with significant homogeneity in investment strategies and underlying assets, primarily concentrated in "fixed income +" strategies [1][2] - The majority of wealth management investors have a low-risk appetite, seeking returns slightly above deposit rates with lower volatility than equity markets [3][4] Group 3: Product Development - The "fixed income +" strategy remains the mainstream product, typically allocating 5% to 15% to equity assets, with dynamic rebalancing through quantitative strategies to prevent excessive risk exposure [4][5] - The company is exploring the development of R3-level products, which can help clients achieve wealth appreciation and risk diversification through multi-asset and multi-strategy configurations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Currently, the report has a phased and clear bullish view on the bond market [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the return on 10-year Treasury bonds are relatively consistent, and the economy may have stabilized at a low level in the first half of 2025, but there is still downward pressure [1][4]. - The loan growth rate continues to decline, the proportion of loans on the asset side of banks tends to decrease, and the financial investment proportion of large banks has increased since early 2023 [1]. - The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities of listed banks has declined quarter by quarter, and it is expected to further decline in the next few years [1]. - The decline in bank liability costs will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of government bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 From the Semi-annual Report of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economic and Bank Operating Pressures - **From the Performance of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economy** - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market can reflect the nominal GDP growth rate to a certain extent, and it is more consistent with the return on 10-year Treasury bonds than the nominal GDP growth rate [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market was 0.0%, and the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent was 2.4%. The growth rate of the entire A-share market excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals was under pressure, reflecting the large pressure on real - economy growth [4][10]. - **From the Performance of the Bank Sector to See the Economy** - The performance of the banking industry is closely related to the economy. In the past two years, the performance growth of the banking industry has been significantly under pressure, and the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline [13][16]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.42%, a record low, and the average net interest margin of various types of listed banks has also decreased significantly [16][18]. - **From the Liabilities of the Entire A-share Market to See the Financing Demand** - Since the first quarter of 2024, the long - term borrowing of the entire A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals) has stagnated, reflecting the weak financing demand of market - oriented enterprises [20]. - The social financing growth rate generally leads the nominal GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 quarters, and the social financing growth rate may decline in the next few months [23]. 3.2 What Changes Have Occurred in the Bank's Assets and Liabilities? - **The Loan Growth Rates of Large and Small and Medium - Sized Banks Have Both Declined** - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2011 [25]. - The growth rate of personal housing loans is under pressure of negative growth, and the loan growth rates of large and small and medium - sized banks have both declined. The proportion of loans of listed banks has tended to decline since the second quarter of 2024 [25][29]. - **The Proportion of Deposits on the Liability Side of Large Banks Has Decreased, and the Proportion of Deposits of Small and Medium - Sized Banks Has Remained Stable** - Since early 2023, the proportion of deposits of the six major banks has decreased from 81.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 76.0% in the second quarter of 2025, while the average proportion of deposits of listed joint - stock banks has increased [25]. - The large - scale banks' corporate deposit growth has slowed down, and the large - scale banks' dependence on non - bank inter - bank deposits has increased [39][45]. 3.3 Which Banks Had More Financial Investment Growth in the First Half of 2025? - Since early 2023, the proportion of financial investment of large banks has rebounded. As of the end of June 2025, the overall financial investment of A - share listed banks reached 97.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of assets [51]. - In the first half of 2025, ICBC and CCB had more financial investment growth, while a small number of joint - stock banks' financial investment decreased. The financial investment increments of large banks, joint - stock banks, and city and rural commercial banks were all significant [55][59]. - As of the end of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the bond investment of the four major banks reached 21.2%, the highest since 2017, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 18.3% [60]. 3.4 How Much Has the Cost of Interest - Bearing Liabilities of Banks Decreased? - In 2025, the decline of the current deposit ratio has slowed down. Since early 2018, the current deposit ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to further decline in the future, but the decline rate may slow down [61]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the deposit interest - payment rate has decreased significantly. The overall deposit interest - payment rate of A - share listed banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 32BP [65]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities has declined quarter by quarter. It is expected to further decline in the next few years, and may drop below 1.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [67]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - It is expected that the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next five years, which will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and the return on 10 - year Treasury bonds will follow the decline of bank interest - bearing liabilities [69]. - In the low - interest - rate era, it is recommended to reduce the return expectation of bond investment, and commercial bank self - operation should increase the allocation of government bonds [72][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the sector index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [4][24]. Core Insights - The overall asset quality of commercial banks has improved in the first half of 2025, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.49% [7][8]. - Retail loan asset quality remains under pressure, particularly in specific areas such as credit cards and personal business loans, due to ongoing economic recovery challenges [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital inflows and public fund reforms, suggesting that banks with high dividend yields and solid asset quality present good investment opportunities [8][9]. Summary by Sections Corporate Sector - The corporate lending sector shows improved asset quality, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing and key policy-supported areas [3]. - The NPL ratio in the corporate real estate sector has increased by 10 basis points to 3.59%, but the peak risk exposure phase is considered to have passed [3][8]. Retail Sector - Retail loan quality is closely linked to employment, income expectations, and consumer confidence, with the NPL ratio for mortgages, credit cards, and consumer loans showing increases of 10bp, 9bp, and 6bp respectively [8]. - The report highlights that the recovery of household balance sheets may take longer, impacting the retail loan sector's performance [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and robust regional banks with high provisioning coverage, such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8][9]. - It also recommends attention to undervalued joint-stock banks with potential for return on equity (ROE) improvement, specifically mentioning浦发银行 (Shanghai Pudong Development Bank) [8]. Performance Metrics - The banking sector's absolute performance over the past month is reported at 5.0%, with a 17.3% increase over six months and 17.7% over twelve months [5]. - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, indicating a positive outlook for banks like 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank) and 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the contribution of financial asset disposal gains from AC and OCI accounts to revenue reached 5.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The investment income growth rate for 42 listed banks was 23.6%, with AC, OCI, and TPL gains showing year-on-year growth rates of 134.7%, 79.0%, and -8.4% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the increase in disposal gains does not necessarily indicate a significant increase in asset disposal scale, as market conditions and strategies vary among banks [2]. Financial Asset Disposal Gains - The contribution of AC and OCI financial asset disposal gains to revenue was 5.2%, up 2.9 percentage points from 2024, with AC asset disposal gains contributing 2.6% [2]. - Among different types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest contribution from AC and OCI disposal gains, reaching 11.0%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Specific banks such as Jiangyin Bank, Sunong Bank, and Zijin Bank had high disposal gain ratios relative to their revenue, at 28.9%, 26.7%, and 22.7% respectively [2]. OCI Floating Profit Situation - The overall OCI floating profit decreased compared to the end of the previous year, accounting for 12.6% of the estimated profit for 2025 [3]. - Major state-owned banks like CCB and ABC reported significant OCI floating profits, with balances exceeding 30 billion [3]. - The average contribution of OCI floating profits to profits for city and rural commercial banks was notably high, with Ningbo Bank's ratio reaching 35% [3][6]. Sector Trends - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate and consumer spending [7]. - The report suggests a focus on banks with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank, and those with dividend strategies like Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [7]. - Attention is also drawn to banks with potential convertible bond conversion expectations, including Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank [7].

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is facing significant challenges in achieving high-quality and sustainable transformation due to market volatility and economic cycles, as evidenced by the rising non-performing loan (NPL) rates among listed banks in China [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Performing Loan Trends - Among 42 listed banks, 28 disclosed personal loan NPL rates, with only 3 banks showing a decrease in NPL rates from the end of 2024 to mid-2025 [1]. - The overall trend indicates that 24 banks experienced an increase in personal loan NPL rates, highlighting a concerning risk environment [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Risk - Factors such as economic slowdown, declining real estate market, and reduced household income are contributing to the rising risk in retail credit [2][3]. - The credit card sector is particularly vulnerable, with a significant increase in NPL rates, driven by a down-market shift in customer demographics and heightened sensitivity to risk [3][5]. Group 3: Bank Responses and Strategies - Some banks, like Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank, have successfully reduced their credit card and personal housing loan NPL rates, indicating effective risk management strategies [5]. - Banks are advised to innovate their risk control systems, moving away from over-reliance on collateral and adopting new data-driven approaches to enhance credit assessment [6][7]. Group 4: Future Directions - The key to overcoming challenges in retail banking lies in improving both quality and efficiency, focusing on high-value customer segments, and integrating financial services into everyday life [6][7]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a "service-data-ecosystem" model, leveraging consumer data to enhance business services and reduce customer acquisition costs [7].

Core Insights - The mobile banking app has become a core platform for commercial banks to serve users, optimize experiences, and enhance competitiveness in the context of national digital transformation and financial technology innovation [1] - The market for mobile banking apps is entering a stage of stock competition, with user flow stabilizing between 650 million and 700 million from 2023 to 2025, indicating saturation [2] - User engagement with mobile banking apps is declining, necessitating refined operational strategies for banks to retain customers [4][6] User Flow and Behavior - The overall user flow of mobile banking apps in China is projected to fluctuate between 650 million and 700 million, with a change rate of -1.2% to 4.6% from 2023 to 2025, indicating market saturation [2] - User stickiness has significantly decreased, with average daily effective usage time dropping from 4.93 minutes to 2.70 minutes and daily usage frequency from 4.54 times to 2.86 times [4] Operational Strategies - Refined operations are essential for banks to break through in a saturated market, focusing on precise user insights and intelligent technology applications [6][7] - The strategy involves three layers: foundational user insights, scenario-based and differentiated operations, and establishing emotional connections with users [7] AI Integration - AI technology is recognized for its potential value across industries, aiding banks in refining operations by enhancing interactive experiences, risk management, and data efficiency [9] Rankings and Performance - The top 50 rankings show that state-owned banks dominate, with Agricultural Bank of China leading with an average MAU of 24.8 million, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank [11][12] - Among joint-stock commercial banks, China Merchants Bank leads with over 7 million average MAU, while other banks face declining user engagement [16][17] - City commercial banks have shown strong performance, with Jiangsu Bank leading at 3.5 million MAU, and some banks achieving significant growth rates [19][20] Case Studies of Successful Apps - Agricultural Bank of China integrates financial services with daily life scenarios, achieving a 4.8% growth in MAU [28][29] - China Merchants Bank continues to innovate its app to meet customer needs and leverage AI advancements [31] - Jiangsu Bank focuses on merging digital capabilities with wealth management, enhancing user experience [33] - Beijing Bank emphasizes a digital transformation strategy that combines technology, scenarios, and services [35]