Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between JiuGui Jiu and Pang Dong Lai on the "JiuGui·ZiYouAi" product has become a focal point for investors, especially in light of the overall decline in the liquor consumption market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Performance and Sales - The "JiuGui·ZiYouAi" product was launched in July through Pang Dong Lai's channels and quickly sold out, leading to purchase limits being imposed [1]. - JiuGui Jiu has also expanded the product's availability to Hunan BuBuGao supermarkets [2]. - Despite investor inquiries about sales data during the performance briefing, management did not provide specific figures, indicating that the product is being shipped according to the cooperation agreement [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Response - JiuGui Jiu's revenue and net profit for the first half of the year have continued to decline year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of weakening demand in the liquor market [2]. - The strong sales of "JiuGui·ZiYouAi" have created potential for a rebound in JiuGui Jiu's performance, contributing to multiple stock price surges this year, with a 26% increase in stock price as of September 12, making it the second-highest gainer among A-share liquor companies [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company is focusing on optimizing channel inventory and fostering healthy supply-demand dynamics, with inventory reduction being a key future task [2]. - The management team plans to continue the BC linkage marketing model, enhancing channel construction and terminal sales, while also targeting specific market segments through the "扫雷" action plan [3]. - JiuGui Jiu aims to develop a "2+2+2" product matrix to cater to younger consumers and self-drinking scenarios, which includes two strategic products, two key products, and two base products [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production, profits, and increasing inventory pressures among distributors [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% [1]. - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, indicating weak terminal consumption and reduced willingness to collect payments from distributors [1][2]. Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 experienced revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking a 13 percentage point increase over five years [2]. Profitability Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable drops in prices for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price decreases across the industry [3][4]. - Only three companies saw an increase in gross margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most significant drops reported by Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Kouzi Liquor [4][7]. - The average net profit margin for many companies has also decreased, with Jiugui Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture, and Water Well Square showing the most significant declines [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with a shift from "volume reduction and price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3]. - Smaller liquor companies, particularly those with revenues below 5 billion yuan, are facing the most severe impacts, entering a destocking phase earlier than larger firms [4][5][6]. Financial Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies was 97.003 billion yuan, with Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8]. - Six leading liquor companies contributed to 94% of the total net profit, while 11 companies reported net profits below 1 billion yuan, with some even incurring losses [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production and profits [1][3] - A majority of liquor distributors are facing increased inventory pressures, leading to a negative feedback loop affecting sales and payment collection [2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%. Profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half experiencing price inversion issues, and the average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68%, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [3] - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking increases of 13 and 9 percentage points respectively over five years [3] - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [3][4] Profitability Trends - The gross and net profit margins of listed liquor companies are generally declining, with only three companies showing an increase in gross margin [5] - The most significant declines in gross margin were observed in companies like Jiu Gui Jiu, She De Jiu Ye, and Kou Zi Jiao [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, only three companies improved their net profit margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most severe drops in Jiu Gui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Yang He Guo Jiu [5][8] Market Dynamics - The average gross margin for leading companies like Guizhou Moutai is 91.3%, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye follow with 87.09% and 76.83% respectively [8] - Four companies reported gross margins below 60%, with Shunxin Agriculture having the lowest at 34.36% [8] - The total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies reached 97.003 billion yuan, with Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8][9]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing, with a significant decline in production and profits in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - A majority of listed liquor companies are experiencing revenue declines, indicating a shift in the industry's growth logic from "volume reduction, price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%. Profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory levels, with over half facing price inversion issues. The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [2] - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue in 2024, up 13 percentage points from five years ago [2] - The median revenue growth rate for the top six liquor companies was 2.36%, while the median for companies below 10 billion yuan was -16.89% [2] Pricing Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable price drops for major brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price reduction across the industry [2][3] Expense Management - Despite declining revenues, many liquor companies have increased their marketing expenditures. The median sales expense growth rate for 19 companies was -11.85%, while overall sales expenses remained stable compared to the previous year [4] - The highest sales expense ratio was recorded at 36.35% for Shui Jing Fang, with 58% of companies increasing their sales expense ratios [4][5] - Management expense ratios have also increased, with the highest being 23.59% for Huangtai Liquor, indicating pressure on profitability for smaller companies [5][6]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production and profits [1] - The overall market is experiencing a slowdown, with a notable increase in inventory pressure among distributors [1][2] - A majority of listed liquor companies are facing revenue declines, indicating a shift in the industry's growth logic [3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% [1] - The industry's profit was 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, and the average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% from the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [3] - The market is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with the top six companies accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024 [3] - The median revenue growth rate for companies with over 10 billion yuan in revenue was 2.36%, while those below 10 billion yuan saw a median decline of 16.89% [3] Price Trends - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining from September 2024 to August 2025, affecting even premium brands [3] - Specific price drops include Moutai's batch price falling from 1820 yuan to 980 yuan, and other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao also experiencing significant price reductions [4] Notable Company Results - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of the 19 listed liquor companies was 241.48 billion yuan, with Kweichow Moutai leading at 91.094 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye at 52.771 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiu Gui Jiu saw revenue declines of 35.32% and 43.54%, respectively, indicating severe challenges for smaller firms [6][7][8] - The median revenue growth rate for listed liquor companies was -11.85%, with 11 companies experiencing declines over 10% and 4 companies over 20% [5]

Market Overview - On September 12, the liquor sector declined by 0.79% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiu Gui Jiu leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The following table summarizes the closing prices, percentage changes, trading volumes, and transaction amounts for key liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Closed at 70.44, down 3.89%, with a trading volume of 300,400 shares and a transaction amount of 2.182 billion [1] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Closed at 66.45, down 2.65%, with a trading volume of 148,100 shares and a transaction amount of 1.003 billion [1] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Closed at 45.97, down 1.94%, with a trading volume of 49,200 shares and a transaction amount of 228 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Quan Wei Jiu (616809), ST Yan Shi (600696), and Ying Jia Gong Jiu (603198) with respective declines [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 1.307 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.057 billion [1] - The following table details the capital flow for specific liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Institutional net outflow of 332 million, retail net inflow of 342 million [2] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Institutional net outflow of 149 million, retail net inflow of 12 million [2] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Institutional net outflow of 57 million, retail net inflow of 46 million [2] - Other stocks also showed varying degrees of institutional outflows and retail inflows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.3% on September 11, with strong performance from Jiu Gui Jiu, while the overall market indices also saw gains, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up by 1.65% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up by 3.36% [1]. - The liquor sector's individual stock performance showed varied results, with notable gains from Ji Si Xing at 5.50% and She De Jiu Ye at 2.37% [1]. Group 2: Stock Data - Ji Si Xing (000799) closed at 73.29 with a trading volume of 348,200 shares and a transaction value of 2.533 billion [1]. - She De Jiu Ye (600702) closed at 68.26 with a trading volume of 156,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.060 billion [1]. - Guizhou Moutai (600519) closed at 1523.50 with a trading volume of 37,200 shares and a transaction value of 5.643 billion [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 52.239 million from institutional investors and 236 million from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 289 million [2]. - Guizhou Moutai experienced a net inflow of 26,661, while Jiu Gui Jiu had a net outflow of 1.37 billion from institutional investors [3]. - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with retail investors showing interest despite the outflows from larger funds [2][3].

Company Overview - Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. is located in the Zhenwu Ying Jiu Gui Jiu Industrial Park in Jishou City, Hunan Province, established on July 14, 1997, and listed on July 18, 1997. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of fragrant liquor series products [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 11, Jiu Gui Jiu's stock price increased by 5.93%, reaching 73.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 339 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.45%. The total market capitalization is 23.912 billion CNY [1]. - The main business revenue composition includes: Jiu Gui series 51.60%, other series 22.38%, Nei Can series 19.77%, Xiang Quan series 5.61%, and others 0.64% [1]. Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Green Fund has a significant holding in Jiu Gui Jiu. The Green Steady Value Mixed A Fund (009940) increased its holdings by 14,900 shares in the second quarter, totaling 62,200 shares, which accounts for 5.35% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest heavy stock [2]. - The Green Steady Value Mixed A Fund was established on October 21, 2020, with a latest scale of 24.3811 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 2.55%, ranking 7331 out of 8175 in its category; the one-year return is 15.37%, ranking 6282 out of 7982; and since inception, it has a loss of 33.26% [2]. Fund Management - The fund manager of Green Steady Value Mixed A Fund is Li Huai Zhong, who has a cumulative tenure of 11 years and 59 days. The current total asset scale of the fund is 19.4 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 70.73% and the worst being -34.65% [3].

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.53% on September 10, with *ST Yanshi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The following companies showed notable performance: - *ST Yanshi: Closed at 6.54, up 1.87% with a trading volume of 59,000 shares and a transaction value of 38.78 million [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu: Closed at 45.93, up 1.50% with a trading volume of 145,300 shares and a transaction value of 670 million [1] - Gujing Gongjiu: Closed at 174.37, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 51,700 shares and a transaction value of 900 million [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu: Closed at 69.47, up 1.14% with a trading volume of 125,110 shares and a transaction value of 1.741 billion [1] - Kweichow Moutai: Closed at 1522.01, up 1.13% with a trading volume of 49,700 shares and a transaction value of 7.541 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 896 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 148 million [2] - The following companies had significant capital flow: - Kweichow Moutai: Main fund net inflow of 827 million, retail fund net outflow of 372,700 [3] - Jiu Gui Jiu: Main fund net inflow of 54.21 million, retail fund net outflow of 91.93 million [3] - Yingjia Gongjiu: Main fund net inflow of 31.79 million, retail fund net outflow of 31.19 million [3]

天弘中证食品饮料ETF（159736）成立日期2021年9月9日，最新规模46.93亿。今年以来收益4.04%，同 类排名3951/4222；近一年收益23.07%，同类排名3340/3781；成立以来亏损24.31%。 天弘中证食品饮料ETF（159736）基金经理为沙川。 截至发稿，沙川累计任职时间7年230天，现任基金资产总规模215.56亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 97.38%， 任职期间最差基金回报-69.41%。 9月2日，酒鬼酒跌5.05%，截至发稿，报67.32元/股，成交17.15亿元，换手率7.64%，总市值218.74亿 元。 资料显示，酒鬼酒股份有限公司位于湖南省吉首市振武营酒鬼酒工业园，成立日期1997年7月14日，上 市日期1997年7月18日，公司主营业务涉及从事馥郁香型白酒系列产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构 成为：酒鬼系列51.60%，其他系列22.38%，内参系列19.77%，湘泉系列5.61%，其他(补充)0.64%。 从酒鬼酒十大流通股东角度 数据显示，天弘基金旗下1只基金位居酒鬼酒十大流通股东。天弘中证食品饮料ETF（159736）二季度 增持2100股，持有股数78 ...