Summary of Conference Call on China Spirits Industry Industry Overview - The spirits industry in China is currently facing challenges due to the ongoing impact of the anti-extravagance policy, which has affected consumer demand and retail momentum. [1][2][11] - The third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) is expected to be the trough for the industry, with a projected sales decline of 5% to 27% across various brands, excluding Moutai and Jiugui. [1][2][21] Key Points and Arguments Demand and Sales Trends - Retail momentum is anticipated to remain weak, particularly during the peak season due to fewer holiday days compared to previous years. [1] - A significant decline in retail volume is expected, with estimates of a 30% drop in August and a 15-20% decline during the peak season. [11] - The wholesale pricing remains under pressure, with notable declines in prices for key brands like Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye. [19][27] Shipment and Inventory Management - Spirits companies are prioritizing channel health by implementing deeper destocking and tighter shipment controls to ease distributor financing burdens. [1][2] - The trend of controlling shipments is crucial for maintaining channel inventory and supporting wholesale prices, especially for high-end spirits. [18][27] Financial Forecasts and Revisions - Sales and net profit forecasts for super-premium and upper-mid-end spirits have been revised down by up to 6% and 17% respectively for 2025E-27E. [2][42] - Despite the cautious outlook, target multiples have been raised by 9-19% to reflect a more normalized valuation level amid market re-rating. [2] Product Strategy and Market Positioning - Companies are focusing on product strategy to navigate the current market challenges, including reinforcing mid-end and mass portfolios and innovating lower-degree liquor products for younger consumers. [11] - The emphasis on residential banquets and product mix shifts is seen as a potential catalyst for recovery. [11] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - There is potential for enhancement in shareholder returns, with increased dividend payout forecasts for companies like Wuliangye. [11][43] Additional Important Insights - The anti-extravagance policy's impact is expected to gradually normalize, potentially boosting sentiment during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday season. [11] - The affordability of high-end spirits has improved, which may support residential demand as policy headwinds ease. [31] - The spirits sector has seen a rotation towards laggards, indicating a market sentiment shift towards recovery narratives. [12][42] Conclusion - The China spirits industry is navigating a challenging environment with significant policy impacts affecting demand and pricing. However, strategic adjustments in shipment control, product offerings, and potential improvements in affordability may provide pathways for recovery in the coming years. [1][2][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is shifting from a "business necessity" to a "lifestyle enjoyment" approach, with many companies launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers and enhance market vitality [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Several major liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shui Jing Fang, are actively introducing lower-alcohol products, indicating a trend towards product diversification and market adaptation [2][3]. - The market for low-alcohol liquor is projected to grow significantly, from approximately 20 billion yuan in 2020 to about 57 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 30% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Demographics - The primary consumer demographic for liquor is shifting, with older generations gradually exiting the market, while younger consumers, particularly those born after 1985, are becoming the main growth drivers [3][4]. - The younger generation prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and social drinking experiences, which necessitates a strategic shift for liquor companies to engage this demographic effectively [3][5]. Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategies - Companies need to adopt innovative marketing strategies, utilizing new media and experiential marketing to resonate with younger consumers and stimulate brand engagement [5][6]. - The current market faces challenges, including a lack of consumption scenarios for low-alcohol products and limited channel profitability, which may hinder sales unless companies implement supportive policies [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions - Lowering alcohol content is seen as a starting point for companies to connect with younger consumers, but deeper engagement with consumer preferences and behaviors is essential for long-term success [6]. - The industry is entering a new era characterized by rational consumption attitudes, where understanding and responding to the needs of younger consumers will be crucial for driving growth [6].

Market Overview - On September 16, A-shares opened slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.14% at 3865.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.09% at 13017.58 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.2% at 3072.3 points [1] - The market focus included stocks like Shoukai Co., which opened up 1.65% after a significant price increase, and other sectors such as gold and real estate showing strong performance [1] Company News - CATL announced that its sodium-ion battery has passed the new national standard certification, making it the first globally certified sodium-ion battery for passenger vehicles [2] - Shoukai Co. experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of 100% over a short period, indicating abnormal trading activity [2] - Shanghai Construction Group reported an increase in gold mine resources, valued at approximately 4.27 billion RMB, although this has minimal impact on the company's overall revenue [2] - New Dazheng is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of at least 51% of Jiaxin Liheng Facility Management [3] - Jiugui Liquor's collaboration with a partner has led to strong sales of a new product, with plans to accelerate the development of innovative alcoholic beverages [3] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with total sales expected to exceed 6 billion RMB [3] - Dingtong Technology plans to invest up to 15 million USD in Vietnam for the development of high-speed communication connectors and other products [3] - Borui Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of a new drug targeting obesity, marking a significant milestone in its product development [3] Stock Movements - Siwu Fushi's major shareholder reduced their stake by approximately 0.94%, bringing their total holding down to 64.8% [4] - Junsheng Electronics secured projects with major automotive brands, with a total lifecycle order value estimated at around 15 billion RMB [4] Investment Opportunities - Crystal Morning plans to acquire 100% of Chip Micro Semiconductor for 316 million RMB, focusing on IoT and automotive applications [5] - Nanfeng Co. is in the early stages of a 3D printing service project, with an initial investment of 50 million RMB [5] - Zhenghai Magnetic Materials' convertible bonds will cease trading after September 16, with a forced redemption price set at 100.50 RMB per bond [5] Regulatory Updates - ST Suwu's stock price fell below 1 RMB, risking delisting if it remains below this threshold for 20 consecutive trading days [6] Industry Trends - Keli Yuan plans to accelerate the construction of energy storage projects in various regions, aiming for at least 4 GWh of new projects by the end of 2025 [7] - The electronic industry is seeing a shift towards advanced packaging and thermal management solutions, driven by the demands of AI and data centers [11] - The new policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are expected to boost the growth of energy storage and wind power projects [19]

Core Viewpoint - The company held an online performance briefing for its 2025 semi-annual report, addressing investor concerns and outlining strategies for improving performance amid industry challenges [1] Group 1: Product and Market Strategy - The "Jiu Gui · Free Love" product, developed in collaboration with Pang Donglai, has received widespread consumer recognition and is being supplied according to the cooperation plan [1] - The company is experiencing performance pressure due to a deep industry adjustment, weak consumption, and intensified competition [1] - The company is transitioning its marketing model, increasing C-end expenditure, and acknowledges that improvements in terminal sales will take time [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - The company confirmed that production and supply for the "Jiu Gui · Free Love" product are normal and in line with the cooperation plan, addressing concerns about product shortages and production bottlenecks [1] - The company is implementing a BC linkage marketing model, which has shown effectiveness in reducing terminal inventory [1] Group 3: Future Plans and Market Focus - The company plans to deepen BC linkage in the second half of the year, focusing on core stores and banquet scenarios, and will enhance efforts in key markets outside Hunan [1] - The new production capacity planning is based on market forecasts and the company's cash flow assessments [1] - The company aims to address consumption downgrade by developing younger and more fashionable products [1] Group 4: Performance Improvement and Investor Relations - The management is actively taking measures to improve performance and is focused on enhancing brand influence through channel development and consumer activities [1] - The company is committed to balancing the interests of employees and shareholders through its collaboration with Pang Donglai, which is expected to enhance management and employee capabilities [1] - The company's market value management strategy revolves around improving fundamentals and operational performance while strengthening communication with the capital market and investors [1]

Group 1: Sales and Product Performance - The collaboration with Pang Donglai on the "Jiu Gui · Free Love" product has received widespread consumer recognition, with normal production and supply according to the cooperation plan [2] - The company has experienced a decline in sales for several consecutive years, attributed to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, weak consumption, and intensified competition [2] - The company is actively working on improving sales performance in the second half of the year [3] Group 2: Inventory and Market Strategy - The company is focused on inventory reduction as a key task, with ongoing efforts to enhance channel construction and terminal sales, resulting in a continuous decrease in terminal inventory [3] - Plans for the second half of the year include strengthening the "sweep" action to improve terminal activation success rates and expand market coverage [3] - The company aims to enhance its market share in Hunan province by focusing on core store construction and consumer activities [4] Group 3: Product Development and Market Positioning - The company is developing a product matrix of "2+2+2" to stabilize existing consumer groups while accelerating the development of innovative products to meet the needs of younger consumers [4] - The company is addressing the overall consumption downgrade by promoting the development of younger and fashionable products [4] - Future product launches will depend on market demand and the ongoing collaboration with Pang Donglai [4] Group 4: Financial Management and Investor Relations - The company is committed to improving its fundamental performance as a basis for sustainable growth in market value, alongside enhancing communication with the capital market [4] - The management is focused on balancing employee satisfaction and shareholder interests while improving management levels through collaboration with Pang Donglai [4]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the liquor sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant month-on-month sales growth for Moutai in August, with terminal sales in various regions increasing by 15%-35%. It suggests that while there may be pressure on sales during the upcoming double festival, there is potential for improvement, presenting a configuration opportunity for the sector [1][5]. - The consumer goods sector continues to embrace new consumption trends, with strong performance in soft drinks, beer, and condiments, while the liquor sector shows signs of pressure with noticeable deceleration in performance [1][2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also highlighting consumer goods companies like Weidong, Wanchen Group, and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's sales in August showed significant month-on-month growth, with terminal sales increasing by 15%-35% across multiple regions. The report anticipates pressure on sales during the double festival but expects a month-on-month improvement, indicating potential configuration opportunities [1][5]. - The report recommends prioritizing leading brands in the liquor sector, specifically Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting brands with strong market share and lower valuations such as Zhenjiu Lidu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][13]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to continue capitalizing on new consumption trends. Despite recent adjustments in the new consumption sector due to capital rotation and high valuation pressures, the long-term trend remains positive with clear opportunities for sustainable investment [2][17]. - Recommended stocks include Wanchen Group, New Dairy, Weidong, and Qingdao Beer, among others, while also highlighting potential stocks like Jindaiwei and Tea Baidao [2][17]. Market Performance - From September 8 to September 12, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.38%, with the meat products sector (+2.79%) and liquor sector (+1.73%) leading the gains, while beer (-0.98%) and other liquor categories (-0.83%) experienced declines [2][22]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's valuation has adjusted, with the liquor sector currently at 19.82 times earnings, indicating a potential for value investment [27].

Core Insights - The company has launched a co-branded product "Jiu Gui Jiu · Free Love" in collaboration with Pang Dong Lai, which has received widespread consumer recognition since its launch [1] - The company's performance has been under pressure for the past two years due to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, weak consumption, and intensified competition [1] - The company is in the process of transforming its marketing model, increasing C-end expenditure to strengthen terminal sales, which requires time for the effects to reflect in the company's performance [1] Company Strategy - The company's production capacity can meet the supply demand for the "Jiu Gui Jiu · Free Love" product, with sales being planned by Pang Dong Lai supermarket [1] - The management team is focused on continuing the reform of the BC linkage marketing model, enhancing channel construction and terminal sales, with some initial success as terminal inventory continues to decline [1] - The company plans to implement a second phase of the "Sweep Mine" action in the Hunan local market, targeting identified outlets with precise policies to improve terminal activation success rates and effectively expand terminal coverage [1] Market Expansion - For key markets outside the province, the company will continue to strengthen the "Sweep Mine" action, further penetrating county and town markets to tap into county-level consumption potential and expand market share outside the province [1]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a pullback on September 12, with the Food ETF (515710) declining by 1.23% by the end of the trading day [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as liquor and dairy products, saw significant declines, with Guizhou Moutai dropping 5.28% and Shede Liquor down 3.09% [1] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by recent consumption stimulus policies introduced in various regions, which are expected to boost domestic consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3][5] Group 2 - Analysts from Dongxing Securities are optimistic about the recovery of the consumer sector in the second half of the year, particularly in the restaurant industry, driven by tourism and sports economies [3] - The Food ETF manager noted that the current low valuation of the food and beverage sector presents a good investment opportunity, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.52, which is at the 11.76% percentile of the past decade [4] - The white liquor sector is expected to see a recovery as multiple policies are anticipated to improve demand, especially during the upcoming holidays [5][6] Group 3 - The white liquor sector faced significant challenges in the second quarter due to policy impacts, but there are signs of recovery as consumer scenarios improve [6] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and dairy segments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai has become a focal point for investors, particularly regarding the sales performance of the "Jiugui·Ziyouai" product launched in July [1] Group 1: Product Performance - Investors showed significant interest in the sales volume, scale, revenue contribution, and production capacity of the "Jiugui·Ziyouai" product during the performance briefing [1] - The product initially sold out quickly upon its launch in Pang Donglai's channels, leading to the implementation of purchase limits [1] - Following its initial success, Jiugui Liquor expanded the product's availability to Hunan Bubu Gao supermarkets [1] Group 2: Management Response - During the performance briefing, Jiugui Liquor's management, including General Manager Cheng Jun, did not provide specific data regarding sales figures [1] - In response to inquiries about sales performance and future distribution, Cheng Jun stated that the product is being shipped according to the cooperation agreement and that the company will actively support Pang Donglai in future supply efforts [1]