Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 26.82 CNY [1][5] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from the heavy truck replacement policy [4] - The heavy truck market is anticipated to see significant growth due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy, expected to take effect in the second quarter of 2025 [9] - The company has shown strong growth in the new energy heavy truck segment, with a 177% year-on-year increase in sales [9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.908 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 310 million CNY, up 13.3% year-on-year [9] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow was negative 3.189 billion CNY [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 52.463 billion CNY, 59.996 billion CNY, and 67.621 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 14.4%, and 12.7% [7][12] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.49 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.16 CNY, respectively [5] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 18 times, aligning with the target price of 26.82 CNY [5] Market Position - The company holds a leading market share of 28.0% in the heavy truck sector, with a sales volume of 74,200 units in Q1 2025, despite a 3.2% year-on-year decline [9] - The new energy heavy truck sales reached 4,231 units in Q1 2025, representing a 177% increase year-on-year, with a market share of approximately 14% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 26.82 CNY [1][5] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from the heavy truck replacement policy [4] - The heavy truck market is anticipated to see significant growth due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy, expected to take effect in the second quarter of 2025 [9] - The company has shown improvement in profitability and market share in the heavy truck sector [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 42,070 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 46.0%. Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 52,463 million CNY, 59,996 million CNY, and 67,621 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 16.8%, 14.4%, and 12.7% [7][12] - Operating profit for 2023 was 1,774 million CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 207.0%. The forecasted operating profits for the next three years are 2,866 million CNY, 3,415 million CNY, and 4,057 million CNY, reflecting growth rates of 28.5%, 19.2%, and 18.8% [7][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,080 million CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 405.5%. Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,751 million CNY, 2,140 million CNY, and 2,541 million CNY, with growth rates of 18.4%, 22.2%, and 18.7% [7][12] Market Position and Trends - The company maintained a leading market share of 28.0% in the heavy truck sector, with sales of 74,200 units in the first quarter of 2025, despite a slight decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [9] - The new energy heavy truck segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a 117% year-on-year increase in sales, positioning the company third in market share at approximately 14% [9] - The company is actively expanding its export markets, particularly in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, while also exploring opportunities in the Americas, Australia, and Eastern Europe [9]

Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced stable revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while total profit decreased by 8.9% to 946.5 billion yuan [11][12] - The report highlights that leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those with efficient management, have shown better-than-average performance in terms of net profit and operating cash flow [3][8] - The anticipated release of new models and the impact of local consumption promotion policies are expected to support a gradual recovery in automotive company performance in Q2 2025 [3][12] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the automotive industry generated a total revenue of 10.65 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth, while total profit fell by 9.1% to 462.26 billion yuan [11][12] - The Q1 2025 revenue for the automotive industry was 2.40 trillion yuan, with a profit total of 946.5 billion yuan, indicating a continued decline in profitability [11][12] Profitability Comparison - The profitability of passenger vehicle companies showed significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some companies like BYD and Seres maintaining strong growth, while others like GAC Group and JAC Motors faced challenges [17][18] - In 2024, the overall profit margin for the automotive industry was 12.4%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and further decreased to 12.1% in Q1 2025 [12][27] Inventory Management - Inventory levels in the automotive sector showed improvement for bus and parts companies, while passenger vehicle companies faced slight increases in turnover pressure [8][12] - By the end of Q1 2025, the inventory of the automotive industry accounted for 20.9% of current assets, a 1.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [8][12] Cash Flow Analysis - The overall cash flow in the automotive industry faced pressure, with the net cash flow from operating activities for the vehicle sector turning negative at -22.19 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [8][12] - The cash flow for parts companies showed a decline, with a total of 123.05 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 1.4% year-on-year [8][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading automotive companies and those involved in the Huawei and Xiaomi supply chains, as well as companies in the humanoid robot and intelligent driving sectors [3][8] - Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several parts manufacturers such as New Spring Co., Silver Wheel Co., and Top Group [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 21.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 12.91 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million RMB, also up 13% year-over-year but down 43% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below expectations due to changes in product and market structure [1][2]. - The expansion of the heavy truck replacement policy to include National IV and LNG vehicles is expected to boost demand, with annual heavy truck sales potentially exceeding one million units. The company, as a leading heavy truck manufacturer, is likely to benefit from this industry upturn, enhancing its profit realization capability [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's Q1 revenue growth is attributed to the successful implementation of the heavy truck replacement policy and improved domestic sales, with a gross margin of 7.1% and a net profit margin of 2.4% [2]. - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, resulting in a decrease in expense ratios [2]. Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by the expanded replacement policy and healthy inventory levels. Price wars are easing, and some manufacturers are even raising prices, which could benefit leading companies [3]. - The demand for new energy heavy trucks is also anticipated to grow, with significant increases in sales of pure electric heavy trucks [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.50 RMB, 1.72 RMB, and 2.12 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is set at 21.00 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 12.91 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, with a net profit of 310 million yuan, also up 13% year-on-year but down 43% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below expectations due to changes in product and market structure [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue increased to 12.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 43%, slightly below the forecast of 325-335 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 was 7.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 4.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 2.4%, up 0.01 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The heavy truck replacement policy is expanding to include National IV vehicles and LNG trucks, which is expected to boost replacement demand significantly, with annual heavy truck sales potentially exceeding one million units [1][3]. - The heavy truck industry is showing signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in Q1, as indicated by a 3% year-on-year decline and a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase in wholesale sales [2][3]. - The demand for new energy heavy trucks is on the rise, with March sales of pure electric heavy trucks reaching 14,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 183% and a month-on-month increase of 79% [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 at 1.50, 1.72, and 2.12 yuan respectively [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 13 times, but the company is projected to have a valuation premium due to its leading position in the heavy truck market, with a target PE of 14 times and a target price of 21.00 yuan [4].

• 中国重汽一季度销量 7.4 万辆，国内市场表现良好，出口 3.3 万辆同比下 降，主要受俄罗斯市场影响，但非洲、东南亚、中东、南美等地保持增长。 • 国家以旧换新政策逐步落地，预计将积极拉动国内重卡需求，上海、四川 等省份已开始实施，补贴对销量有一定程度的促进作用。 • 预计二季度商用车市场销量同比增长率可能达到两位数，主要受益于国内 需求上升，特别是新能源需求增加。 • 新能源商用车销量显著增长，中国重汽市场份额达 14%，位居行业前三， 但整个新能源商用车行业目前仍处于亏损状态。 • 公司采取采购降本、设计降本和工艺降本等措施以改善经营状况，并坚持 全年 14 万台的出口目标，尽管俄罗斯市场下滑超预期。 • 俄罗斯市场库存较高，中国品牌库存约 4 万台，中国重汽库存约六七千台， 预计需要四到五个月消化，且受政府行政手段影响，销量下滑。 • 国内库存稳定，全行业库存约 17.5 万辆，公司库存约 5 万辆，全年预期 销量为 65 万到 70 万辆，天然气车辆渗透率约 37-38%，以旧换新政策有 望推动其发展。 Q&A 商用车板块的市场行情及未来趋势如何？ 商用车板块的市场行情是以年维度的趋势进行分析。 ...

Group 1 - Heavy machinery stocks have seen a general increase, with notable gains in companies such as Sany International (up 0.17% to HKD 5.77) and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (up 1.38% to HKD 19.1) [1] - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales of excavators reached 36,562 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, while total excavator sales from major manufacturers amounted to 61,372 units, up 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The average operating rate of construction machinery nationwide was reported at 44.67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.62%, with 12 provinces exceeding an average operating rate of 50% [1] Group 2 - The acceleration of major engineering projects across various regions is expected to enhance infrastructure investment in Q2, contributing positively to economic stability and growth [2] - Analysts from Huachuang Securities express optimism regarding domestic policy efforts to boost internal demand, suggesting that the engineering machinery sector is likely to benefit significantly [2]

Domestic News - During the "May Day" holiday, over 60,000 applications for the old-for-new car subsidy were submitted, driving new car sales to 8.8 billion yuan [2] - In Songjiang, consumers can enjoy a maximum subsidy of 24,000 yuan when purchasing a car, with a tiered subsidy structure based on the car's price [3] - Beijing Hyundai's first pure electric platform SUV, ELEXIO, was officially unveiled and is expected to launch in the third quarter of this year [4] - Tesla's localization rate for parts has exceeded 95%, with over 400 local suppliers contributing to the Shanghai Gigafactory [5] - BAIC Group established the Anpeng Innovation Automotive Industry Investment Fund with a total investment of 1.9 billion yuan [7] - The service fee for the BaaS battery rental package for the Leidao L60 has been drastically reduced to 1 yuan, enhancing its competitiveness [8] - Pony.ai's Robotaxi service will be integrated into the Uber platform within this year, starting in the Middle East [9] - Bangbang Automotive Service and Great Wall Recycling Resources have reached a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance the automotive parts remanufacturing sector [10] International News - The U.S. may soon cancel the electric vehicle tax credit policy, as indicated by House Speaker Mike Johnson [12] - Rivian announced a $120 million investment to strengthen its supply chain near its Normal, Illinois factory [13] - Waymo plans to expand its autonomous taxi service to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington D.C. by 2026, in partnership with Magna to build a new factory [14] - LG Energy Solution aims to accelerate the localization of its supply chain in North America in response to regulatory changes affecting the battery industry [15] Commercial Vehicles - Zero One Automotive delivered its first batch of new energy heavy trucks in Shanghai, marking a significant step in its global strategy [16] - King Long Bus and Yuchai have secured a major order for 234 high-end customized tourist buses to be delivered to Saudi Arabia [18] - Scania's new parts center in Suzhou has officially opened, enhancing service response times and parts delivery efficiency [19] - Dongfeng Liuzhou's Chao Long H5V gas heavy trucks were delivered in bulk, featuring advanced fuel efficiency and lightweight technology [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 13% in Q1 2025, benefiting from the upward cycle in the heavy truck industry [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industry's upward trend over the next three years, with projected revenue growth rates of 21%, 12%, and 12% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The company holds the largest market share in the heavy truck sector, with a Q1 2025 market share of 28% [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.07 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 46% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.08 billion in 2023, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 406% [3] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.6x, 8.9x, and 7.6x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][11] Performance Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 7.1%, while the net margin was 3.3% [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.7% in 2024 to 14.4% by 2027 [11] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to stabilize around 62% in the coming years [11]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 业绩概览： 公司发布2025年一季报： 25Q1营收129.0亿元，同环比分别+13.0%/+13.8%，归母净利润3.1亿 元，同环比分别+13.3%/-43.1%，扣非后归母净利润2.9亿元，同环比分别+11.0%/-38.0%。Q1业 绩符合我们预期。 25Q1公司重卡上险量1.74万，同比+10.6%： 交强险数据口径下，25Q1公司国内销量1.74万，同比+10.6%，对应市占率11.3%，同环比分 别-0.3/+1.5pct，其中天然气/电车分别0.26/0.65万，占公司销量比分别15%/37%，24Q1占比分别 5%/49%，24Q4占比分别13%/22%。 25Q1毛利率同环比下滑，费用率持续压降： 25Q1公司毛利率为7.05%，同环比分别-0.7/-4.5pct，毛利率下滑主因25Q1：1）产品结构变化； 2）海外市场价格竞争激烈。25Q1销管研费用率分别 0.7%/0.6%/1.5%，合计费用率2.9%，同环 比分别-0.5/-0.5pct，费用率持续压降；净利率3.3%，同环比分别+0.1/-2.1pct。 展望： 出口+降本增效保障盈利，看好25年 ...