Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to grow steadily due to high cotton prices and strong downstream textile consumption [14][15] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen capacity consolidation since 2021, leading to increased industry concentration [6][26] - The industry is currently experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, contributing to a rising price trend for viscose staple fiber [7][39] - The report recommends "Sanyou Chemical" as a key investment target and "Zhongtai Chemical" as a beneficiary of the price increase in viscose staple fiber [43][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5][14] - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.10% [5][15] - The introduction of new spinning equipment, particularly vortex spinning, is expected to further drive demand for viscose staple fiber [19] Supply Side - The effective capacity of viscose staple fiber has decreased from a peak of 5.13 million tons in 2021 to 4.885 million tons in 2024, a decline of 4.8% [6][25] - The industry has seen minimal new capacity additions since 2021, with a current operating rate of 87.6% as of August 2025 [7][31] - The top three companies in the viscose staple fiber industry hold a combined market share (CR3) of 69.77%, indicating a high level of concentration [26][34] Price Dynamics - The price of viscose staple fiber has been increasing, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, while the price of its main raw material, dissolving pulp, has been declining [39][41] - The price difference between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp has widened, indicating improved profitability for industry leaders [39][41] - The report anticipates that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise due to strong downstream demand and seasonal factors [39][41]

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical increased by 2.06% on September 1, reaching 4.96 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.846 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 15.08%, with a 1.64% rise over the last five trading days, 6.21% over the last 20 days, and 5.08% over the last 60 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical was 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period, with an average of 28,714 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 0.55% [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of PVC resin and caustic soda, with revenue composition as follows: PVC 39.69%, caustic soda 14.99%, viscose yarn 14.83%, and other chemical products [2] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical reported operating revenue of 13.955 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20.00% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 259 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical (002092.SZ) reported a decline in revenue but a 20% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to improved gross profit margins despite ongoing losses [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 13.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194.1 million yuan, an improvement from -242.7 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Investment losses significantly impacted overall performance, with investment income at -110.8 million yuan, accounting for 70.19% of total profit, primarily due to losses from joint ventures [2][4] Product Performance - The gross profit margins for core products PVC and viscose yarn were under pressure, with PVC's margin dropping to 9.31%, a decline of 33.24 percentage points compared to the first half of 2021 [6] - The textile industrial segment's viscose yarn revenue decreased by 5.2% to 2.07 billion yuan, with its gross margin falling to 0.37%, down 18.36 percentage points from the same period in 2021 [6] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory balance reached 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.33%, with inventory write-down losses amounting to 51.23 million yuan, representing 32.44% of total profit [3] - Operating cash flow net amount dropped to 1.235 billion yuan, a significant decline of 54.72% year-on-year, while financing cash flow surged to 1.634 billion yuan, an increase of 296.91% [7][8] Debt and Liquidity - Zhongtai Chemical faced heavy debt burdens, with total liabilities rising to 51.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and an asset-liability ratio of 64.85%, up 3.48 percentage points [8] - The company had a cash balance of 7.249 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings of 5.216 billion yuan, indicating a liquidity gap of 9.7 billion yuan [8]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical has decreased by 2.01% on August 28, trading at 4.88 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 12.639 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.23%, with a 2.31% rise over the last five trading days and a 4.05% increase over the last 20 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda, with revenue contributions of 39.69% from polyvinyl chloride, 14.99% from caustic soda, and 14.83% from viscose yarn [2] - The company reported a revenue of 13.955 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Zhongtai Chemical has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends, with 259 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]

Company Overview - Zhongtai Chemical is located in Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone, established on December 18, 2001, and listed on December 8, 2006 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of chemical products, including polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.00% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 2.222 billion yuan, with 259 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of August 25, Zhongtai Chemical's stock price increased by 2.10%, reaching 4.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.587 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 12.76%, with a 2.53% increase over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has experienced a 1.02% decline over the past 20 days and a 4.52% increase over the past 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of August 20, the number of shareholders is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per person is 28,714, an increase of 0.55% from the previous period [2] Industry Classification - Zhongtai Chemical belongs to the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chemical raw materials and chlor-alkali sector [2] - The company is associated with several concept sectors, including cement, coal chemical, low-priced stocks, and Xinjiang revitalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical has reported continuous losses for three consecutive years, with significant declines in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to a challenging market environment in the chlor-alkali industry and its textile business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 194 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 243 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - For the full year of 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 37.118 billion yuan, down 28.15%, and a net loss of 2.865 billion yuan [2]. - In 2024, operating revenue further declined to 30.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.84%, with a net loss of 977 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing low overall market conditions, with significant price declines in PVC products impacting Zhongtai Chemical's performance [3][4]. - The price of liquid caustic soda fell dramatically from 3,000 yuan per ton in Q4 2024 to 852 yuan per ton by August 2025, leading to reduced profit margins for companies in the sector [3]. - The PVC powder market has shown a downward trend, with the average price for SG-5 (PVC powder) at 4,939 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, down 11.23% year-on-year [3]. Regulatory Issues - Zhongtai Chemical faced penalties for information disclosure violations, including financial fraud, leading to a fine of 5 million yuan and a warning from regulatory authorities [6][7]. - The company was found to have engaged in non-operating fund occupation transactions totaling 7.718 billion yuan between 2021 and 2022, significantly impacting its financial reporting [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新 公司债券（第一期）2025 年付息公告 重要提示： 债券简称：23 新化 K1 债券代码：148437.SZ 债权登记日：2025 年 8 月 21 日 付息日：2025 年 8 月 22 日 计息期间：2024 年 8 月 22 日至 2025 年 8 月 21 日 新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公 开发行科技创新公司债券（第一期）将于 2025 年 8 月 22 日 支付自 2024 年 8 月 22 日至 2025 年 8 月 21 日期间的利息。 为保证付息工作的顺利进行，现将有关事项公告如下： 一、本期债券的基本情况 1．发行人：新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 2．债券名称：新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 2023 年面向 专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券（第一期） 3．债券简称：23 新化 K1 4．债券代码：148437.SZ 5．债券余额：6 亿元 6．期限：本期债券发行期限为 5 年期，在第 2 年末、 第 4 年末设置发行人赎回选择权、调整票面利率选择权、投 资者回售选择权。 7．当前票面利率：4.28% 8 ...

债券代码:148437.SZ 债券简称:23 新化 K1 申万宏源证券有限公司 ----- 关于 新疆中泰化学股份有限公司"23 新化 K1" 债 券转售的临时受托管理事务报告 债券受托管理人 4、增信措施:本期债券无担保。 百宏源证券有限公司 ENWAN HONGYUAN SECURITIES CO.,LTD (住所:上海市徐汇区长乐路 989 号 45 层) 2025年8月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》、《公司债券受托管理人执业 行为准则》、《新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 2022 年面向专业投资者公开发行公 司债券受托管理协议》(以下简称"《债券受托管理协议》")及其它相关信息 披露文件以及新疆中泰化学股份有限公司(以下简称"发行人")出具的相关说明 文件和提供的相关资料等,由债券受托管理人申万宏源证券有限公司(以下简称 "申万宏源证券"或"债券受托管理人"）编制。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见,投资者应对相关 事宜作出独立判断,而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为申万宏源证券所作的 承诺或声明。 一、本期债券的基本情况 1、债券名称:新疆中泰化学股份有限公司 20 ...