Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development sector and real estate services sector [10][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales in 44 cities, with a week-on-week increase of 22%, while second-hand home sales saw a slight decline of 5% [2]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in 44 cities are down 6% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales are up 14% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory reduction, noting a 0.4% decrease in new home inventory in 21 key cities [33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.75%, with the real estate development sector down 3.43% [3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market, with new home sales showing signs of recovery while second-hand sales are declining [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.34 - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.32 - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.08 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 17.07 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 12.73 - China Overseas Property (2669 HK) with a target price of 7.74 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 [11][43]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Data - New home sales in July across 44 cities decreased by 19% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down 26% [15]. - The report notes that second-hand home sales in 22 cities decreased by 6% in July, but year-to-date, they are up 14% [24]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of July 27, the inventory of new homes in 21 key cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 14% [33]. - The report indicates that the de-stocking speed in first-tier cities is 54 weeks, while second-tier cities are at 87 weeks [33]. Recommendations and Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of key city markets and the valuation recovery of companies with strong cash flow and performance [4][42]. - The report suggests that property management companies are also likely to see valuation recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [4].

7月29日，西湖区三墩单元、拱墅区石桥单元和临平区星桥单元等3宗涉宅地块顺利完成出让，宣告杭州7月土拍收官。 在当日的土拍中，拱墅区石桥单元地块竞争最为激烈，经过43轮竞价，最终由伟星房产以总价19.13亿元、楼面价19627元/平方米、溢价率28.13%竞得;西湖 区三墩单元地块则被"华润置地 杭地发展 杭州地铁"联合体以底价竞得。这两宗地块均属于杭州市住宅品质提升试点项目。 | | | | | | 【杭州】7月29日土拍结果 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地块编号 | 地块位置 | 建设用地面 积(m2) | 规划建筑面 积(m³) | 容积率 | 用地 性质 | 起始价 (万元) | 成交总价 (万元) | 成交楼面价 (元/m') | 潜似率 | | | | | CHEI | | | | | | | | 杭政储出 [2025]93号 | 三墩单元 XH010101-14地块 | 89157.17 | 205061.5 | 2.30 | 综合用地 (含住宅) | 268463 | 268 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in July experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, reflected in the sales performance of real estate companies [2][4] - The total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to July was 20,730.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [4] - The sales performance of leading real estate companies remained stable, with the top 10 companies showing a sales threshold increase of 5% year-on-year [2][4] Sales Performance - In July, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 18.2% year-on-year [2][6] - The top three companies by sales in the first seven months were Poly Developments (1,632 billion yuan), Greentown China (1,368 billion yuan), and China Overseas Land & Investment (1,319 billion yuan) [3][4] - The number of "billion-dollar" real estate companies increased to five this year, with an average sales amount of 1,320.1 billion yuan [11] Market Trends - The overall transaction volume of new homes in 30 key cities was 836 million square meters in July, down from 1,034 million square meters in June [14] - The cumulative transaction volume for the first seven months remained roughly flat compared to the previous year [14] - The market is expected to see a low-level fluctuation in new home transactions, with a projected year-on-year decline of less than 5% [14] Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence [15] - Various cities have introduced new policies to enhance supply quality and meet diverse housing needs, including optimizing public housing loan policies [15] - The real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment, with structural opportunities in "good cities + good houses" expected to emerge [15]

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, emphasizing the need for "solid foundation and comprehensive efforts" for achieving socialist modernization [12][13] - The macro policy focus has shifted from "quantity" to "quality," with the removal of phrases like "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," indicating a more cautious approach to economic stimulus [12][13] - The "de-rolling" policy has been officially defined, with a focus on "key industries" and a shift away from real estate-related discussions, reflecting a new development model in the real estate sector [13] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [14] - Recent supply-demand policies have led to price increases in some commodities, which may boost PPI expectations; however, historical data suggests that price increases driven by strong reality tend to be more sustainable than those driven by strong expectations [14][15] Group 3 - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs, but the long-term risks associated with reciprocal tariffs should not be underestimated, as the situation remains fluid and subject to change [17][20] - The trade talks have not yielded unexpected results, merely postponing risk points by 90 days, and the experience from the 2018 trade war indicates that the US stance can be unpredictable [20] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen a significant improvement in liquidity, with financing balances exceeding 2024 levels, indicating a potential for continued market performance [22] - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is characterized by a "see-saw" effect, where funds are shifting from the bond market to the stock market, driven by improved expectations for fundamentals [22][23] Group 5 - The overall profit expectations for A-shares in 2025 are likely to be weak, with a downward trend expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [25] - The profit growth in A-shares is primarily driven by year-on-year net profit margin increases, while revenue growth remains under pressure, indicating a challenging demand environment [25][27] Group 6 - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures in August are expected to enhance the importance of performance trading, with stocks showing high growth and strong opening characteristics likely to yield good returns [30] - Key industries to focus on in August include motorcycles and others, optical electronics, traditional Chinese medicine, lighting equipment, and agriculture [30][36] Group 7 - The recommended stocks for August include Lu'an Huanneng, which is positioned as a top choice for coking coal due to its resilient demand and potential for production capacity increases [37][38] - China Aluminum is highlighted for its strong position in the global aluminum industry, with expected profit increases driven by rising production volumes [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5][37] Core Viewpoints - The market heat has declined in July, with sales showing a significant year-on-year drop, reaching a six-year low for the same period [1][14] - The sales performance of top real estate companies varies, with some showing stability while others experience significant declines [4][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and suggests that 2025 will be dominated by policy influences [5][37] Summary by Sections July Market Performance - In July, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 211.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1][14] - From January to July, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales amount of 1.8639 trillion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year [1][14] Sales by Company Tier - The sales decline is observed across all tiers, with the smallest drop in the TOP21-30 tier at 6.3% year-on-year, while the TOP10 tier saw a decline of 14.9% [2][16] - The sales threshold for the top 100 companies decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 dropping from 52.65 billion yuan to 49.16 billion yuan, a decline of 6.6% [3][28] Performance of Leading Companies - Some leading state-owned and benchmark private enterprises showed stable sales, with Yuexiu Property achieving a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in July [4][33] - Among the top 40 companies, 11 reported positive year-on-year growth in July, with the best performer being Bangtai Group at 82.6% [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the potential for quality companies to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [5][37] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [5][37]

Group 1 - The land market remains active in 2025, with top 100 real estate companies acquiring land worth a total of 578.3 billion yuan from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1] - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 43.5% of the total new value added, with Greentown China leading at 111.6 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Property and Poly Developments at 93.5 billion yuan and 90.7 billion yuan respectively [1] - Competitive bidding for prime land in core cities is intense, with record-breaking floor prices, such as the 200,300 yuan per square meter for a land parcel in Shanghai's Xuhui District [1] Group 2 - Real estate companies are actively acquiring land during this "window period" to replenish their portfolios, driven by the release of premium and scarce land by local governments [2] - In July, the overall real estate market experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, with new home transaction volumes in 30 key cities totaling approximately 8.36 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] - Poly Developments led sales with 150.1 billion yuan in transaction volume, while Greentown China and China Overseas Property followed closely [2] Group 3 - The new home transaction volume is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in August, with a projected year-on-year decline of less than 5% [3] - Core first- and second-tier cities may experience a temporary cooling, while some second-tier cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Nanjing could see a phase of recovery [3] - The real estate market is still in a phase of adjustment, with structural opportunities in "good cities + good properties" [3]

7月22日，杭州出让拱墅区石桥、余杭区良渚东2宗宅地，总出让面积76亩，总建筑面积11.2万方，总起 价152347万元。最终，此次杭州拍地总收金189847万元。（观点网） ...

证券日报网讯滨江集团（002244）8月1日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年7月31日，公 司合并普通账户和融资融券信用账户的在册股东总户数为30500户。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to continue its recovery due to increased infrastructure investment and consumption stimulation, supported by government policies [3][4]. - The real estate sector has shown weakened sales momentum in recent months, with a focus on policy impacts for short-term rebounds and a need for improved sales recovery and company fundamentals for medium-term outlook [3][28]. - The building materials sector is facing challenges such as weak demand, excess capacity, and inventory pressure, but upcoming policies are expected to enhance environmental standards and control capacity, positively impacting profitability [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The central government is emphasizing urban renewal and fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including the issuance of special bonds [3][28]. - The real estate sector has seen a slight increase of 0.66% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points [15][20]. - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Vanke, focusing on stable operations and strong positions in first and second-tier cities [3][28]. Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has experienced a 6.23% increase over the past two weeks, ranking second among 31 sectors [29][31]. - Cement prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the national average price at 320 RMB per ton, down 4 RMB from the previous week [36][50]. - Companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are recommended for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [4][50]. Consumer Building Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials reached 15.8 billion RMB in June, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [5][53]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales and profit margins for consumer building materials companies due to market improvements and cost optimization strategies [7][53]. - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials, Rabbit Baby, and Three Trees for their competitive advantages and solid fundamentals [7][53].

Core Viewpoint - The total land acquisition amount of the top 100 real estate companies in China reached 578.3 billion yuan from January to July, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [2][5][4] Group 1: Land Acquisition Data - From January to July, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 578.3 billion yuan, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point [2][5] - In terms of equity land acquisition, China Overseas Land & Investment ranked first with 54.2 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China with 52.2 billion yuan, and Poly Developments with 42.4 billion yuan [6] - Regarding new value added, Greentown China led with 111.6 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Land & Investment with 93.5 billion yuan, and Poly Developments with 90.7 billion yuan [7] Group 2: Regional Land Acquisition Insights - The top 10 companies in the Yangtze River Delta acquired 180.2 billion yuan, leading among the four major city clusters, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's top 10 companies acquired 89.4 billion yuan, ranking second [8] - The top 10 companies in the central and western regions acquired 45.7 billion yuan, ranking third [8] - State-owned enterprises remain dominant in land acquisition in key cities, with private enterprises only supplementing land reserves in specific areas [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape in Key Cities - In July, competition for quality land in core cities remained intense, with some plots undergoing numerous rounds of bidding, such as 89 rounds in Nanjing and 43 rounds in Hangzhou [11] - Record-breaking land prices were observed, with a plot in Shanghai's Xuhui District selling for 200,000 yuan per square meter, setting a new national record [11] - The competition is driven by companies seizing opportunities to acquire quality plots in core cities, as local governments release premium and scarce land to attract investment [11][12] Group 4: Future Trends and Challenges - Companies are increasingly focusing on project safety and profitability certainty, particularly in core areas of major cities, where high premium transactions are expected to continue [12] - There is a growing trend towards enhancing product competitiveness, with improvements in design and construction quality becoming essential for future success [12]