滨江集团1月5日大宗交易平台共发生16笔成交，合计成交量542.98万股，成交金额5022.64万元。成交价 格均为9.25元，相对今日收盘价折价10.19%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在14笔 成交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为4522.94万元，净买入4522.94万元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生55笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为3.03亿元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为3.42亿元，近5日减少2677.97万元，降幅为7.27%。（数据宝） 1月5日滨江集团大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | （万元） | 格 | 折溢价（%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | | （元） | | | | | 170.00 | 1572.50 | 9.25 | -10.19 | 机构专用 | 广发证券股份有限公司杭 | | | | | | | 州富春路证券营业部 | | 58.10 | 537.43 | 9.25 | -10.19 | ...

1月5日，滨江集团收涨2.49%，收盘价为10.30元，发生16笔大宗交易，合计成交量542.98万股，成交金 额5022.64万元。 第1笔成交价格为9.25元，成交21.70万股，成交金额200.73万元，溢价率为-10.19%，买方营业部为机构 专用，卖方营业部为广发证券股份有限公司杭州富春路证券营业部。 第2笔成交价格为9.25元，成交21.70万股，成交金额200.73万元，溢价率为-10.19%，买方营业部为机构 专用，卖方营业部为广发证券股份有限公司杭州富春路证券营业部。 第3笔成交价格为9.25元，成交22.16万股，成交金额204.98万元，溢价率为-10.19%，买方营业部为机构 专用，卖方营业部为广发证券股份有限公司杭州富春路证券营业部。 第4笔成交价格为9.25元，成交21.70万股，成交金额200.73万元，溢价率为-10.19%，买方营业部为机构 专用，卖方营业部为广发证券股份有限公司杭州富春路证券营业部。 第5笔成交价格为9.25元，成交21.62万股，成交金额200.00万元，溢价率为-10.19%，买方营业部为国投 证券股份有限公司连云港郁州北路证券营业部，卖方营业部为广发证 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - New home transaction area has seen a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 21.5% [6] - The transaction area for second-hand homes has turned negative month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9%, although the decline has also narrowed compared to the previous week [6] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.2 months, which is a decrease of 1.6 months month-on-month but an increase of 4.3 months year-on-year [6] - The land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in price, with a total land transaction area of 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year, while the average floor price has increased by 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [6] - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector has decreased significantly, with a total issuance of 1.96 billion yuan, down 68.5% month-on-month and 20.2% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 281.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [17][26] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,398 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [42][43] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities is 126.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [49][57] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities is 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year [63][64] - The total land transaction price is 111.36 billion yuan, down 14.1% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [68][89] - The average floor price of land is 2,545.5 yuan per square meter, up 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [63][68] 3. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has announced a new policy reducing the value-added tax rate on personal sales of housing from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026 [2][97] - The central bank has indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and improving financial conditions [97]

12月30日，财政部、国家税务总局发布公告宣布，自2026年1月1日起，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般 纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上 （含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 此次新政将原5%的征收率下调至3%，通过降低交易税负释放政策红利，成为稳楼市政策"组合拳"的重 要一环。近期房地产领域新政持续密集落地，从需求端减负到供给端优化形成系统性支持，为行业向高 质量发展转型筑牢基础，更有助于提振市场信心，推动滨江集团（002244）等头部房企加速估值修复。 滨江集团打造高品质"好房子"的底气，根植于公司高质量交付水平与稳居行业第一梯队的稳健财务表 现。 2025年，滨江集团交付规模与销售业绩同步放量，全年累计交付项目43个，总交付面积达383.5万平方 米，其中杭州地区交付项目35个，累计惠及25020户家庭；销售端同步实现1017亿元全口径销售额，行 业标杆地位稳固，稳居全国房企第一梯队。 财务端，截至2025年末，公司债务结构优化成效持续显现。公司权益有息负债规模压降至262亿元，较 2024年末减少超40亿元，较2022年末实现规模缩减近半；融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Binhai Group's stock has shown a modest increase in price and trading activity, indicating a potential positive sentiment in the market [1] - As of January 5, Binhai Group's stock price rose by 2.09% to 10.26 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 31.923 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a net inflow of main funds amounting to 6.9947 million CNY, with significant buying activity from large orders [1] Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Binhai Group achieved an operating revenue of 65.514 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 60.64% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.395 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.60% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 4.735 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.313 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3 - As of December 20, the number of shareholders for Binhai Group stood at 30,300, with an average of 88,625 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds, with the largest shareholder being 富国天惠成长混合 (LOF) A/B, holding 50 million shares [3] - The company operates primarily in real estate development and sales, with 98.93% of its revenue coming from property sales [1]

在销售保持稳定的基础上，房企投资端同步回暖。中指研究院数据显示，2025年TOP100房企拿地总额 为9640亿元，同比增长3.9%。 "一方面，为稳定土地市场，多地推出利好政策，推地质量也不断提升，增加了房企拿地积极性；另一 方面，近年来房企拿地力度较弱，存量可开发土地已基本开发完毕，当前抓住利好时机积极补仓，以图 可持续发展。"中指研究院相关负责人表示，当前，民企拿地主要集中在一二线核心城市，且聚焦优势 区域深耕，例如滨江集团在杭州拿地、懋源地产在北京拿地。 从区域分布看，一二线核心城市成为房企重仓区域。2025年，杭州、上海、北京三地全年土地出让金均 超1400亿元。在业界看来，一二线核心城市人口流入大、产业基础强、需求更有韧性，因此更受房企青 睐。 头部房企新增货值继续向核心城市和优质项目集中 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展（600048）控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利 发展"）、绿城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口 （ ...

从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利发展"）、绿 城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口"）、杭州滨江房产集 团股份有限公司（以下简称"滨江集团"）等企业的销售额均超过千亿元。 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《证券日报》记者表示，近年来，多地在供地端持续优化出让机 制，土地供应呈现出"控量提质"的特征。一方面，地方政府不断提升供地精准度，部分城市对配建公共 服务设施的项目给予容积率奖励，另有城市通过支持土地出让金分期缴纳，缓解房企资金压力。另一方 面，围绕"好房子"建设导向，各地加大低容积率、可开发性较强地块的投放力度，优质地块供应明显增 加，房企竞拍积极性提升，高溢价成交案例增多。 展望未来，严跃进表示，2026年住宅市场有望迎来一批在区位、品质和功能上更具竞争力的"好房子"项 目，核心城市新房产品结构将进一步优化，具备持续开发能力与稳健经营能力的头部房企，有望保持竞 争优势。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]