Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall profit from blast furnace steel production is considered satisfactory, and the profit recovery for general steel companies may accelerate [3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry's overall profit is expected to decline, but with the implementation of various "stability growth" policies, steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [4]. - The report highlights that general steel companies, which are less affected by export tariffs, may see significant performance improvements due to the marginal recovery in demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 0.94% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (0.28%), long products (0.36%), and flat products (1.21%) [3][11]. 2. Supply Data - As of May 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.17 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 6.71 tons [28]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 2.93 percentage points to 59.5% [28]. 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.046 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92,000 tons, reflecting a 1.01% decline [37]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 1.47 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.33% decrease [37]. 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.606 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 331,000 tons, or 3.33% [45]. - Factory inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons, up 0.99 tons week-on-week, but down 6.67% year-on-year [45]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, down 33.36 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.96% [51]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,652.6 yuan/ton, down 3.32 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.05% [51]. 6. Profitability - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 88 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 14.56% [59]. - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [59]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong cost control [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron prices are gradually declining, leading to a slight recovery in steel profits. The raw material costs are expected to ease further, which may enhance the profitability of steel companies [5]. - Economic data from January to April shows a continued weakness in the real estate sector, while automotive production maintains year-on-year growth. The potential for crude steel production regulation is increasing amid uncertain external demand and weak domestic recovery [5]. Price Trends - As of May 23, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3160 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [3][11]. - The report details specific price changes for various steel products, indicating a general downward trend in prices over the past week [12]. Production and Inventory - As of May 23, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.72 million tons, a rise of 40,900 tons week-on-week. However, the total inventory of these products decreased by 331,000 tons to 9.5954 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is estimated at 2.4713 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes an increase in profits for plate products, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by 0 CNY/ton, +23 CNY/ton, and +69 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net financing of local government bonds reached 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending, which is expected to support demand in the steel sector [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, slightly down by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by uncertainties from US-China tariff disputes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 6.6% to 125.09 million tons [7]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Export and Import Dynamics - Steel exports in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, benefiting from price advantages [3][7]. - Iron ore imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 103.14 million tons in April 2025, although overall iron ore imports for the first four months decreased by 5.5% [7]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing to support the economy [3]. - The report suggests that with the anticipated improvement in demand and supply-side adjustments, the long-term fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to improve [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the current economic conditions and demand recovery [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for specific stocks and "Hold" for others, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the steel sector [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in tariff uncertainty, which is expected to improve economic expectations. The U.S.-China trade tensions have entered a phase of temporary easing, although future uncertainties remain significant [2][4]. - The domestic steel production has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in apparent consumption of steel products, particularly rebar, which has returned to levels seen in the previous year [3][39]. - The report emphasizes the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, which are anticipated to support the steel industry's recovery and growth [4][12]. Summary by Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron production has decreased by 10,000 tons to 2,447,000 tons, with a slight decline in long-process production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 91.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous period but an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [17]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 3.1%. The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 9,937,000 tons, down 3.8% from the previous week and down 28.5% year-on-year [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has significantly improved, with a week-on-week increase of 8.1%. Rebar consumption reached 2,603,000 tons, up 21.7% from the previous week [39][48]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have risen, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $101.1 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.5% [57]. - The report notes a slight increase in the shipping volume of iron ore from Australia, while Brazilian shipments have decreased [57]. Prices and Profits - Steel prices are showing a strong performance, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index at 123.6, up 0.9% week-on-week. The report anticipates that steel prices may gradually strengthen due to improving fundamentals driven by macroeconomic and industry policies [70][71]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils remain negative, indicating ongoing cost pressures [72]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (Hold) [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariffs between China and the US has improved external demand expectations, providing short-term support for steel demand [5][6]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in steel production control due to uncertainties in external demand and a recovering domestic demand [5][6]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover as raw material supply conditions become more favorable [5][6]. Price Summary - As of May 16, steel prices have increased, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][12]. - Hot-rolled steel (3.0mm) is priced at 3310 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 80 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Cold-rolled steel (1.0mm) is priced at 3670 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton [3][12]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week ending May 16 was 8.68 million tons, a decrease of 58,200 tons from the previous week [4]. - Social inventory of major steel products decreased by 392,900 tons to 9.93 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.60 million tons, an increase of 463,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector [5]. - Suggested attention to high-temperature alloy stocks such as Fushun Special Steel [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.34 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20 [5]. - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) has an EPS forecast of 0.29 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [5]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.37 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 12 [5].

Group 1 - The "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly boosted trade cooperation between China and participating countries, with Zhejiang Province's imports and exports to these countries reaching 979.49 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, an increase of 7.4%, accounting for 56% of the province's total trade [1] - Zhejiang Baojing Glass Technology Co., Ltd. has seen a surge in demand for its refrigerator glass doors in tropical regions, with orders increasing significantly compared to last year, benefiting from the China-ASEAN Certificate of Origin which provided over 400,000 yuan in tariff reductions [1] - The company is currently ramping up production to meet the growing orders in the second quarter, indicating a strong market opportunity driven by seasonal demand [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Jiuli Special Materials Co., Ltd. is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial stainless steel pipes in China, exporting products widely used in critical industries such as oil, gas, and machinery to Belt and Road countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar [2] - The company has introduced new nickel alloy stainless steel pipe fittings for export to Qatar, benefiting from customs processing trade policies that help reduce costs and meet high-quality demands from customers [2] - In the first quarter, the company's exports reached 614 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, showcasing the positive impact of customs policies on business operations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [8][14]. - The steel sector has experienced a three-year adjustment period, leading to a favorable cost-performance ratio at current levels. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks, with domestic demand pricing becoming more relevant due to high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The average price for rebar is 3,296 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% [15][18][37]. - The overall steel price index has seen a minor decline of 0.71%, with cold-rolled steel prices dropping by 1.33% [37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, with a reported fee of -43.5 USD per thousand tons, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [17]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. The COMEX gold price reached 3,329.1 USD per ounce, a 2.52% increase week-on-week [17]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in March 2025 reached 71,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%. The price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 65,700 CNY per ton [16][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that daily pig iron production remains high, with an average of 2.4564 million tons as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.22 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 149,700 tons [5][6]. - The steel market has shown a positive performance, with the steel sector rising by 2.09%, outperforming the broader market [5][13]. - The report indicates a marginal improvement in downstream demand, supported by increased funding availability for construction projects, which is expected to bolster steel demand [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 2.09%, with sub-sectors such as special steel up by 3.41% and long products up by 1.90% [5][15]. - The average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.1%, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points [28]. 2. Production Data - As of May 9, the total production of five major steel products was 7.64 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 93,600 tons, or 1.21% [27]. - Daily pig iron production was reported at 2.4564 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.49% [28]. 3. Consumption Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.452 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 125,660 tons, or 12.94% [38]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 103,000 tons, down 8.58% week-on-week [38]. 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 10.33 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 93,500 tons, or 0.91% [46]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.43 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19.62%, or 4.63% [46]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,453.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37.38 yuan/ton, or 1.07% [52]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,650.3 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 2.55 yuan/ton [52]. 6. Profitability - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2,297 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.0 yuan/ton [60]. - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [60]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [6].