Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, the continuous improvement of interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact is limited. The "stagflation - like" environment restricts the space for interest - rate cuts. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and the price will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term macro boost to the price is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract in the range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the upward trend of aluminum prices last week. With the arrival of the peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand in the peak season is fair, with a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The upward space of Shanghai zinc is limited, and the short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of nickel is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel is supported by raw materials, but the peak - season demand has not been effectively realized. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply path of lithium carbonate is becoming clearer, and the upward trading expectation is weakening. However, strong demand provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,755 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.84% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 270 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic social inventory increased by 2.63% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. The import loss was 1,374 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM East China ADC12 price rose to 21,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.48%. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,230 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.23%. The import loss was 2,805 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 3.56% week - on - week [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 55.74% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The futures import loss was 1,248 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread was - 180 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,150 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot - futures price difference increased by 11.11% [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread was - 90 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased to 72,450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.55%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread was 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term, copper price is affected by the game of interest - rate cut expectations. The Fed's dovish stance on August 22 boosted the market's expectation of a September rate cut and copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction of copper is the main line. The supply is tight, and there is support at the bottom. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price may fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US economic data in August and the rate - cut path in the second half of the year [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The alumina futures market was weak this week due to the increase in warehouse receipts. The spot market is divided between the north and the south. The medium - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton next week, and short positions can be considered in the medium term. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures market fluctuated narrowly this week. The current supply - demand structure is under pressure, and the subsequent inventory build - up expectation is still strong. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of aluminum alloy showed marginal improvement this week. The social inventory decreased for the first time since mid - April. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand from the communication die - casting sector has rebounded. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption. The smelting profit has been repaired, and the smelting start - up rate has increased. The demand is in the seasonal off - season. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are not enough to boost the zinc price to rise continuously, but the overseas inventory drawdown provides support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronic consumption off - season. The tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered [11]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel futures market fluctuated weakly. The macro - sentiment declined, and the fundamentals of supply and demand changed little. The short - term nickel price will return to fundamental pricing, with limited downside space and restricted upside space by the medium - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market fluctuated downwards. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated sharply. The price center moved down to below 80,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals are in a tight balance, with supply contraction and stable demand. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there may be strong support in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 78,830 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 4.84% to 1,084 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,226 yuan/ton, down 74.1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 20,450 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 1.28% to 1,588 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 8.13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin was at 266,000 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The import loss was 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 120,550 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 176 dollars/ton, up 5.95% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 420 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume of stainless steel was 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80,668 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous day. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 934 dollars/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 66,099.6 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [16].

Industry Overview - The corrosion-resistant alloy industry is a key foundational material sector for high-end equipment manufacturing, experiencing rapid growth, with the market size in China expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024 and reach 80 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - The product system of the industry is comprehensive, covering four main categories: iron-based (e.g., 304 stainless steel), nickel-based (e.g., Hastelloy C-276), reactive metals (e.g., titanium alloys), and copper-based alloys, with stainless steel dominating the market [1][2] - The industry is transitioning towards green and high-end development driven by dual carbon goals and high-end equipment demand, with continuous breakthroughs in new material research and processes [1][10] Market Dynamics - The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape of "state-owned enterprises leading, private enterprises featuring, and foreign capital supplementing," with accelerated domestic substitution [1][23] - The market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% from 2024 to 2030, indicating strong growth potential [12] Production and Innovation - Leading companies like Fushun Special Steel have achieved domestic production of high-end nickel-based alloys, reducing costs by over 20% through innovative processes [12][20] - The production of stainless steel is expected to reach 39.44 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.54% [14] Industry Chain - The corrosion-resistant alloy industry chain is tightly coordinated, with upstream relying on imported resources and domestic smelting technology breakthroughs, while downstream applications span petroleum, energy, marine engineering, and aerospace [8][10] - The petroleum and chemical sector accounts for 45% of demand, with the renewable energy sector growing at an annual rate exceeding 25% [8] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a three-tier structure with state-owned enterprises like Baowu Special Steel and Fushun Special Steel dominating the high-end market, while private enterprises like Jiuli Special Materials and Wujin Stainless Steel carve out niche advantages [23] - International companies still lead in certain high-end nickel-based alloy markets, but domestic alternatives are rapidly emerging [23] Development Trends - The industry is moving towards high-end, green, and international collaborative development, with significant demand for high-performance materials in aerospace, nuclear power, and deep-sea engineering [25][26] - Environmental policies are driving the adoption of short-process smelting and recycling technologies, with expectations for a 22% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output by 2025 [27] - International expansion and industry chain integration are accelerating, with companies seeking to enhance global competitiveness through mergers and technology partnerships [28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel have changed little, and they are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - surplus pattern of refined nickel persists, and the supply - demand surplus situation of stainless steel is also difficult to change. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for both nickel and 304 stainless steel [1][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Cost - In July, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained at $24 - 26 per wet ton, with the base price slightly down by 0.2%. Due to weak demand, the price of nickel ore from the Surigao mining area in the Philippines continued to decline. The CIF price of NI1.3% from the Philippines to China dropped to $42 - 44 per wet ton, and NI1.5% dropped to $57 - 59 per wet ton. The costs of various refining nickel processes fluctuated slightly, with the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP at about 133,000 yuan per ton, the cost of high - grade nickel matte and laterite nickel ore high - grade nickel matte integration at about 126,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of laterite nickel ore MHP integration at about 105,000 yuan per ton [2][7]. Supply - In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production was 210,349 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.50%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. From January to June 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined nickel production was 33,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.15%. The estimated production in July was 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29% [3][56]. Consumption - In June 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 33,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.19% and a year - on - year increase of 80.62%. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 167,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.41%. The stainless steel production schedule in July was 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%, among which the 300 - series was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [4]. Inventory - As of August 1, the global visible inventory of refined nickel was 253,000 tons, including 209,000 tons in LME inventory and 39,500 tons in domestic social inventory, a decrease of 796 tons compared with July 25 [4]. Valuation - In the short term, the cost support at the mine end is weakened due to the low utilization rate of the RKAB quota in Indonesia (only 120 million tons in the first half of the year) and the decline in the price of Philippine nickel ore. In the long term, the pattern of industrial over - supply remains unchanged. Although Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 production guidance to 196,000 - 204,000 tons, the annual surplus is still estimated to be 120,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate in the range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan [4]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [5][6]. 304 Stainless Steel Variety Cost - Similar to nickel ore costs in the nickel variety, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel is about 12,800 yuan per ton. The cost of Indonesian ferronickel is 920 - 930 yuan per nickel, and the domestic cost is 1,020 - 1,025 yuan per nickel. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome has dropped to 7,700 - 7,900 yuan per 50 - base ton [7]. Supply - In July 2025, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%, among which the 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. The estimated production in August is expected to rebound to 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.14%, and the 300 - series is 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [7]. Consumption - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel was 2.7807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. The estimated export volume in July was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%, and the impact of the US tariff policy is gradually emerging [7]. Inventory - According to Mysteel data on July 31, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream markets (89 - warehouse caliber) was 1,111,189 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 627,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 484,118 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. For the 300 - series, the total inventory was 676,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% [8]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment of stainless steel has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 13,500 yuan, and the lower limit is around 12,400 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations between 12,400 - 13,500 yuan [9][10]. Global and Chinese Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Situation Global Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The supply of refined nickel and Indonesian NPI increased significantly, with year - on - year growth rates of 11% and 21% respectively, while the global FeNi decreased significantly by nearly 13%. The consumption growth rates of the stainless steel and alloy industries were relatively high, with the stainless steel consumption growth rate at about 7.5% and the alloy consumption year - on - year growth rate close to 5%. In the first half of the year, the global primary nickel supply was sufficient, with a slight inventory build - up. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is estimated to be 150,000 tons [19]. Chinese Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, China's total primary nickel supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import of primary nickel increased by 5% year - on - year, and the import of ferronickel increased significantly. The domestic production of nickel pig iron also increased. From the overall supply - demand data, the inventory increased by 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, indicating a relatively loose supply. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in 2025. The total annual primary nickel supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, the consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [35]. Stainless Steel Industry Production and Capacity - As of July 2025, the national monthly stainless steel production schedule is expected to be 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. Among them, the 200 - series production schedule is 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.9%, the 300 - series is 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%, and the 400 - series is 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% [118]. Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed, and is more correlated with the macro - economic level. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main factor boosting consumption, driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "national subsidies" [141]. Profit Level - As of July 2025, for the short - process smelting of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel, the cost was 12,627 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was 0.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. For the process of purchasing high - grade ferronickel externally, the cost was 12,897 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 1.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. For the process of using low - grade ferronickel + pure nickel, the cost was 15,890 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 20.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].