Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in domestic gold jewelry prices and analyzes the potential for a continued bull market in gold for 2026, influenced by various economic factors and investor behavior [1][3]. Price Comparison - As of December 30, 2025, several gold jewelry brands reported a notable price drop for domestic 24K gold jewelry, with Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook both priced at 1363 CNY per gram, while Lao Miao Gold was at 1359 CNY per gram, and Chow Sang Sang at 1353 CNY per gram. Liufu Jewelry maintained a price of 1403 CNY per gram [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The international gold price has seen fluctuations, dropping from a previous high of 4550 USD to around 4350 USD. The article raises the question of whether the gold bull market can continue into 2026 [2][3]. Support for Gold Market - Key factors supporting the gold market include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with three cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025 and an anticipated 2-3 cuts in 2026. Additionally, global central bank gold purchases are expanding beyond geopolitical nations, with the share of dollar assets in global reserves decreasing from 72% to 56%, while gold reserves have increased to 25% [3]. Investor Behavior - Gold investment returns and capital inflows are positively correlated, with significant demand for gold observed in 2025, totaling 551.5 tons, 477.5 tons, and 537.2 tons in the first three quarters, respectively. Gold ETF and derivatives investments also showed strong performance, with figures of 226.6 tons, 170.5 tons, and 221.7 tons, all higher than the previous year. Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption compared to the previous year, quarterly consumption remains high at nearly 400 tons [3]. Potential Risks - Possible negative factors for gold in 2026 include easing inflation pressures in the U.S., which historically led to declines in gold prices during periods of high inflation retreat. Additionally, liquidity pressures could prompt central banks to sell gold, as seen during the 1997 Asian financial crisis when global central banks sold gold, leading to significant price drops [4].

Market Overview - The jewelry sector experienced a decline of 0.45% on December 29, with ST Xinhua Jin leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.28, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13537.1, down 0.49% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers included: - Chao Hong Ji (002345) with a closing price of 12.95, up 1.09% and a trading volume of 128,100 shares [1] - China Gold (600916) closed at 8.11, up 0.37% with a trading volume of 196,700 shares [1] - Jin Yi Culture (002721) closed at 3.10, up 0.32% with a trading volume of 400,800 shares [1] - Conversely, ST Xinhua Jin (600735) led the decline with a closing price of 4.90, down 4.30% and a trading volume of 159,000 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The jewelry sector saw a net outflow of 23 million yuan from institutional investors and 6.94 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 29.94 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - Chao Hong Ji had a net outflow of 20.61 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - China Gold experienced a net inflow of 456,520 yuan from institutional investors [3] - Deep China A (000017) had a net inflow of 330,950 yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4531.8 per ounce, while international palladium is at $1923.4 per ounce, and international silver is at $79.13 per ounce [1] - The domestic gold price is reported at ¥1016.5 per gram [1] Group 2 - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Lao Miao Gold at ¥1417 per gram as the highest and China Gold at ¥1312 per gram as the lowest [1] - Other notable prices include Chow Tai Fook at ¥1413 per gram, Chow Sang Sang at ¥1412 per gram, and Liufuk Jewelry at ¥1413 per gram [1] - Additional prices from other retailers include Xie Rui Lin at ¥1413 per gram, Jin Zhi Zun at ¥1413 per gram, Chao Hong Ji at ¥1413 per gram, Cai Bai Jewelry at ¥1372 per gram, Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1408 per gram, and Zhou Liu Fu at ¥1398 per gram [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its full island customs closure on December 18, 2025, implementing a policy of "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island" to facilitate trade and investment [2][13] - The zero-tariff policy has been upgraded, increasing the number of zero-tariff product categories from 1,900 to 6,600, covering 74% of production materials [3][14] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to significantly impact both local and national duty-free businesses, with the fundamentals beginning to materialize [15] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance shows that in the second week of November, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com decreased by 5.56% year-on-year [4][16] - The top five categories in terms of growth during the same period were toys, home furnishings, books and audio-visual products, clothing, and home appliances [4][16] Market Review - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.88%, 3.53%, 1.95%, 0.50%, and 0.37% respectively, with the retail trade sector rising by 0.16% [5][20] - Notable stock performances included Dongbai Group, Baida Group, China Duty Free, Yintai Group, and New Xunda, while Nanjing Shanglv, Central Mall, Dalian Friendship, Maoye Commercial, and Liren Liren experienced declines [5][20][27][28] Investment Recommendations - For offline retail, it is suggested to focus on Yonghui Supermarket, which is transforming its business model towards a curated retail approach, leveraging its strong fresh produce sales and scale advantages [28][29] - In the cross-border e-commerce sector, attention is drawn to leading brands like Anker Innovations and platforms like Xiaogongsi, which are expected to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative [29] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended due to their strong brand positioning and growth potential amid rising gold prices [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, with corresponding PE ratios for FY2026 of 14, 18, and 11 respectively [4][9][21]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY2025 Q3 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.6 billion, with a notable 33% growth in international business, particularly in mainland China, which saw a 46% increase [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector amidst a volatile consumption environment, predicting long-term growth potential [3][19]. - The report highlights the expectation of improved orders in the apparel manufacturing sector for 2026, driven by healthy inventory levels and anticipated replenishment from downstream [19][20]. Summary by Sections Lululemon's Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.6 billion, with a 7% year-on-year growth, while gross profit increased by 2% to $1.4 billion, although gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6% due to higher tariffs and promotional discounts [1][12]. - The company expects FY2025 revenue growth of 4%, with a potential increase of 5% to 6% when adjusted for a comparable 52-week basis [1][12]. Regional Performance - In the Americas, Q3 revenue declined by 2%, with the U.S. down 3% and Canada down 1%, while the international segment grew by 33%, driven by a 46% increase in mainland China [2][16]. - The outlook for FY2025 suggests a stable performance in the Americas, with expected revenue changes between a decline of 1% to flat [2][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality stocks in the sports footwear and apparel sector, including Anta Sports and Li Ning, while also suggesting attention to companies like Nike's Greater China retailer, Tmall, which has a PE of 14 for FY2026 [3][19]. - In the apparel manufacturing sector, Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted as attractive investments due to their competitive valuations and positive customer trends [19][20]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector is expected to outperform the broader market, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong inventory management and growth potential [3][19]. - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating potential for recovery [23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors [6][33] - Companies like潮宏基 and毛戈平 are leveraging multi-channel strategies to enhance brand visibility and product sales, indicating a strong market presence [26][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2462.73 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.88% [5][15] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 10.00%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.26% rise [15][19] Company Highlights - **潮宏基**: Achieved a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase [42] - **毛戈平**: Launched the "琉光赋活" skincare series, set to debut on January 1, 2026, focusing on high-end skincare needs [31] - **周大福**: Reported a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, a slight decrease of 1.1%, but with a net profit increase of 0.1% [39] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending潮宏基 and老铺黄金 as key players [6][33] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasis on companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for永辉超市 and爱婴室 [6][33] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending毛戈平 and珀莱雅 [6][34] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical aesthetic chains, with recommendations for爱美客 and科笛-B [6][34]

Group 1 - The jewelry sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% on December 26, with Feiya leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] - Key stocks in the jewelry sector showed varied performance, with Cuihua Jewelry rising by 3.76% to a closing price of 13.53 [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the jewelry sector saw a net outflow of 35.5 million yuan, while retail investors had a net inflow of 20.95 million yuan [2] - The stock Feiya had a closing price of 15.22, down 1.36%, with a trading volume of 40,200 shares [2] - The stock data indicates that major funds had a net inflow in stocks like Shenchuan A and Cuihua Jewelry, while others like Laofengxiang and Mingpai Jewelry experienced net outflows [3]

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Chao Hong Ji is quoted at 1398 CNY per gram on December 25, 2025, a decrease of 12 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2][3] - The price of platinum is quoted at 888 CNY per gram on December 25, 2025, down by 44 CNY per gram from the previous trading day [1][2][3] Group 2 - The Ukrainian Defense Minister Shmyhal stated that the Ukrainian armed forces are expected to receive a total of 3 million first-person view (FPV) drones for precision strikes this year, which is nearly 2.5 times the amount received last year [4]

Group 1: Event Overview - The investor relations activity took place on December 24, 2025, at the company's conference room [1] - Participants included representatives from 12 institutions such as Huachuang Securities, Bosera Asset Management, and Guotai Junan Securities [1] Group 2: Activities Conducted - The event included a tour of the company exhibition hall and the Zhenbao Museum [1] - Attendees visited the Chaohongji jewelry stores and the "Zhen" experience center [1] Group 3: Q&A Session Insights - Discussions covered topics such as the company's store opening pace, overseas store status, product structure changes, new product planning, and the impact of new gold tax policies [1] - The company adhered to regulations during the Q&A session, ensuring no undisclosed significant information was shared [1]

Core Insights - The gold price has surged dramatically, reaching 1403 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase in consumer interest and urgency to purchase gold jewelry as the holiday season approaches [1][3][14] Price Variations - On December 24, 2025, major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang listed their gold prices at around 1403 yuan per gram, while other brands like Cai Bai offered prices between 1342 and 1345 yuan, showing a price difference of nearly 60 yuan per gram for the same gold quality [3][5] - The price of investment gold bars varies significantly, with brand names like Chow Tai Fook pricing their gold bars at 1230 yuan per gram, while banks like ICBC offer prices as low as 990 to 1014 yuan per gram, which is closer to the raw material price [6][8] Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing a split, with high retail prices for jewelry supported by brand value, while investment gold prices reflect a more competitive landscape with significant price differences based on the sales channel [8][10] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, the base price for gold is around 1165 yuan per gram, with additional costs for craftsmanship, indicating that consumers can access gold at much lower prices than retail [10] Consumer Behavior - For consumers purchasing gold for personal milestones, brand stores remain the preferred choice due to their reputation and after-sales service, while those focused on investment should consider bank offerings for lower costs [11][13] - Younger consumers interested in unique designs are turning to alternative channels like Shui Bei for lower-priced options, understanding that these purchases are more about personal enjoyment than investment [13][14] Market Sentiment - The current gold price surge is driven by both panic buying and investment strategies, reflecting a broader sentiment of uncertainty and the desire for tangible assets during volatile times [14]