Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—funds, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for evaluating industry performance[16] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Funds**: Uses the net inflow rate of main funds in the industry as the primary data - **Valuation**: Based on the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment**: Proportion of rising constituent stocks as the main data source - **Momentum**: Uses the MACD indicator as the primary data source - **Overbought/Oversold**: Relies on the RSI indicator - **Profitability**: Based on the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year[16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive scoring mechanism to identify high-performing and low-performing industries, aiding in sector rotation decisions[16] 2. Model Name: Consensus Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines momentum, valuation, and price factors with high-frequency fund flow data to identify stocks with high similarity between fund flow trends and price trends[21] - **Model Construction Process**: - Selects high-performing secondary industries over the past 30 days - Calculates momentum, valuation, and frequency of price increases for stocks within these industries - Uses high-frequency minute-level fund flow data to compute fund inflow/outflow changes for each stock - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between fund flow trends and price trends within the top three secondary industries[21] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Industry Rotation Model - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Score 10 - Non-Ferrous Metals: Score 9 - Home Appliances: Score 6 - **Low-Scoring Industries**: - Media: Score -9 - Social Services: Score -8 - Computers: Score -8[18][19] 2. Consensus Stock Selection Model - **Selected Industries**: - Steel (e.g., Baosteel, Bengang Steel Plates) - Components (e.g., Huilun Crystal, GaoHua Technology) - Minor Metals (e.g., Jinduicheng Molybdenum, Xiyang Shares)[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Funds - **Construction Idea**: Measures the net inflow of main funds in the industry - **Construction Process**: Aggregates daily transactions of ≥10,000 shares or ≥200,000 RMB to calculate net fund inflow for each industry[11] 2. Factor Name: Valuation - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Construction Process**: Uses historical valuation data to determine the percentile ranking of the current valuation[16] 3. Factor Name: Sentiment - **Construction Idea**: Reflects market sentiment through the proportion of rising stocks in the industry - **Construction Process**: Calculates the percentage of stocks with positive price changes within the industry[16] 4. Factor Name: Momentum - **Construction Idea**: Captures the trend strength of the industry - **Construction Process**: Utilizes the MACD indicator to measure momentum[16] 5. Factor Name: Overbought/Oversold - **Construction Idea**: Identifies overbought or oversold conditions in the industry - **Construction Process**: Applies the RSI indicator to assess these conditions[16] 6. Factor Name: Profitability - **Construction Idea**: Measures the earnings potential of the industry - **Construction Process**: Uses the consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year as the primary metric[16] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Funds Factor - **Top Industries (5-day net inflow)**: - Banking: 39.08 billion RMB - Textiles and Apparel: 0.61 billion RMB - Non-Ferrous Metals: -0.97 billion RMB[12] - **Top Industries (30-day net inflow)**: - Comprehensive: -9.49 billion RMB - Banking: -13.75 billion RMB - Beauty and Personal Care: -26.15 billion RMB[13][14] 2. Valuation Factor - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Non-Ferrous Metals: +++ - Comprehensive: +++ - Beauty and Personal Care: +++[18][19] 3. Sentiment Factor - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Non-Ferrous Metals: +++ - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: ++ - Textiles and Apparel: ++[18][19] 4. Momentum Factor - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Non-Ferrous Metals: +++ - Transportation: +++ - Comprehensive: +++[18][19] 5. Overbought/Oversold Factor - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Neutral - Non-Ferrous Metals: Neutral - Home Appliances: Neutral[18][19] 6. Profitability Factor - **Top-Scoring Industries**: - Non-Ferrous Metals: +++ - Comprehensive: +++ - Home Appliances: +[18][19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the IP toy sector, paper industry, and home furnishing sector, highlighting specific companies to watch [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The IP toy market continues to thrive, with Sanrio's FY26Q1 performance exceeding expectations, driven by strong IP character sales, particularly Hello Kitty, across various regions [2][4]. - The paper industry is entering a peak demand season in Q3, with expectations for price stabilization and potential upward movement due to supply-side improvements [14][15]. - The home furnishing sector is poised for recovery as Beijing relaxes housing purchase restrictions, which may enhance valuation and stimulate demand [17][19]. Summary by Sections 1. IP Toy Sector - Sanrio's FY26Q1 revenue reached 431 billion JPY, a 49% year-on-year increase, with operating profit up 88% and net profit up 38%, attributed to strong IP character performance [2][4]. - Companies such as Morning Glory, Chuangyuan, Chaohongji, Guobo, and Blucor are highlighted for their innovative IP collaborations and product launches [2][4][6][9][10]. 2. Paper Industry - The report notes that Q3 demand is gradually increasing, with expectations for paper prices to stabilize and potentially rise, supported by reduced production from overseas suppliers [14][15]. - Key companies to monitor include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Bohui Paper, as they are positioned to benefit from the improving supply-demand dynamics [14][15]. 3. Home Furnishing Sector - The easing of purchase restrictions in Beijing is expected to boost the home furnishing sector, with companies like Sophia, Oppein, Gujia, and others identified as having strong dividend safety margins [17][19][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector, driven by improved consumer confidence and demand from the secondary housing market [19][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of differentiated membership stores, such as the WS Jiangtun membership store launched by Wushang Group in Wuhan, which focuses on unique products and services [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in sectors like gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index reported a decline of 0.38% for the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 2.11% [14][21] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly increase of 6.07% and a year-to-date increase of 32.99% [16][19] Retail Insights - Wushang Group's WS Jiangtun membership store adopts a "paid membership + selected products" model, aiming to provide a differentiated shopping experience [5][24] - The store features a dual membership structure with basic and diamond tiers, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [25] Investment Recommendations - Focus on gold jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [8][29] - Highlight the potential of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [8][29] - Emphasize the growth of domestic cosmetics brands, recommending companies like Maogeping and Pola [8][29] - Suggest investment in medical aesthetics firms with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [8][29] Company Performance Highlights - Laopu Gold achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan in FY2024, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [31][36] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 17.479 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a significant decline in net profit [31] - Chaohongji's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 25.4%, driven by its focus on fashion jewelry [43]

Core Insights - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on brand upgrades and consumer preferences shifting towards innovative and differentiated products [1][4][5] - Young consumers are increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, with a notable shift from traditional value preservation to cultural recognition and emotional value [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The opening of a new store by Laopu Gold in Shanghai attracted long queues, indicating strong consumer interest and engagement in the gold jewelry market [1] - The trend of incorporating traditional craftsmanship and cultural elements into gold jewelry is gaining traction, appealing particularly to younger demographics [1][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are favoring IP collaboration gold jewelry that combines aesthetic value with cultural significance, which is becoming a new growth engine for the industry [2][3] - The demand for unique product features and cultural value is leading consumers to be more willing to pay for distinctive offerings [4] Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies like Chao Hong Ji are expanding their offerings to include more IP licensed products aimed at younger customers, reflecting a strategic shift towards appealing to this demographic [3] - The industry is moving away from mere channel expansion to enhancing product quality and design, with a focus on creating a more engaging retail environment [4][5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The gold jewelry sector is transitioning from a trade-focused model to one that emphasizes brand identity and high-end positioning, which is expected to improve customer loyalty and profitability [5] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a focus on product differentiation and cultural integration, as brands seek to meet the evolving preferences of consumers [4][5]

Group 1 - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on brand upgrades and consumer preferences shifting towards innovative and differentiated products [1][4] - Young consumers are increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, moving from a singular focus on value preservation to a multi-faceted approach that includes cultural recognition and emotional value [1][2] - The rise of IP collaborations in gold jewelry, particularly appealing to younger demographics, is becoming a significant growth engine for the industry [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are enhancing their product offerings by integrating cultural and emotional values, aiming to create unique products that resonate with younger consumers [3][4] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on store expansion to prioritizing product quality and brand differentiation, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations [4] - The emergence of brands like Laopu Gold is leading the industry towards a more brand-centric and high-end development model, which is expected to increase customer loyalty and profitability [4]

华鑫证券研报指出，潮宏基终端销售逆势高增，门店扩张稳步推进。7月，公司推出黄油小熊联名系列 产品，并将其送上《费加罗》中文版杂志封面，成功出圈，杂志封面定制款限定小熊开售秒售罄，首发 当晚抖音旗舰店实时在线人数破5万，刷新品牌直播新纪录。公司紧抓年轻人悦己消费心理，构建起差 异化IP矩阵，精准把控从产品上市到销售爆发全过程节奏，通过挖掘绑定高热场景提升产品使用价值与 情感共鸣，激发消费者主动分享与传播的热情，从而引爆社交裂变。公司差异化定位年轻时尚消费群体 品牌，凭借强大的产品设计能力构建起丰富的产品矩阵，非遗文化融合与潮流IP联名具备爆款潜力，海 外市场拓展顺利，未来盈利可观。首次覆盖，给予"买入"投资评级。 ...

华鑫证券研报指出，潮宏基终端销售逆势高增，门店扩张稳步推进。7月，公司推出黄油小熊联名系列 产品，并将其送上《费加罗》中文版杂志封面，成功出圈，杂志封面定制款限定小熊开售秒售罄，首发 当晚抖音旗舰店实时在线人数破5万，刷新品牌直播新纪录。公司紧抓年轻人悦己消费心理，构建起差 异化IP矩阵，精准把控从产品上市到销售爆发全过程节奏，通过挖掘绑定高热场景提升产品使用价值与 情感共鸣，激发消费者主动分享与传播的热情，从而引爆社交裂变。公司差异化定位年轻时尚消费群体 品牌，凭借强大的产品设计能力构建起丰富的产品矩阵，非遗文化融合与潮流IP联名具备爆款潜力，海 外市场拓展顺利，未来盈利可观。首次覆盖，给予"买入"投资评级。 ...

莱绅通灵封涨停，曼卡龙、潮宏基涨超5%，迪阿股份、飞亚达、菜百股份、萃华珠宝等跟涨。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Investment Highlights - The company launched a collaboration series with "Butter Bear," which gained significant attention, including being featured on the cover of the Chinese version of "Figaro" magazine, leading to a sell-out of limited edition products and a record-breaking online presence during the launch [1] - The company is effectively targeting the young consumer market by creating a differentiated IP matrix and enhancing product value through emotional resonance, which drives consumer engagement and social sharing [1] Sales and Expansion - The company has experienced significant growth in average store sales, with a product repurchase rate reaching 60% in the first half of 2025, and stable performance in overseas stores [2] - The company plans to open over 150 new stores this year, including 10 in overseas markets, indicating strong expansion potential and a robust partnership with franchisees [2] Profit Forecast - The company is positioned as a brand targeting young, fashionable consumers, leveraging strong product design capabilities and cultural integration to create potential blockbuster products [3] - Future earnings are projected to be substantial, with estimated EPS of 0.56, 0.70, and 0.86 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 29, 23, and 19 times at the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant growth in terminal sales and is steadily expanding its store network, with a projected net increase of over 150 stores for the year, including 10 new stores in overseas markets [6]. - The launch of the "Butter Bear" collaboration series has successfully captured consumer attention, achieving record sales and engagement, particularly among younger demographics [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a strong product design capability and a differentiated brand targeting young, fashion-conscious consumers, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56, 0.70, and 0.86 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 16.44 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 146 billion yuan and a 52-week price range of 4.07 to 17.39 yuan [2]. Sales and Expansion - The average sales per store continue to show high growth, with a product repurchase rate of 60% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong customer loyalty [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a revenue growth rate of 21.7% in 2025, with expected revenues of 7,933 million yuan, and a significant rebound in net profit projected at 500 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 158.3% [9][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 5.3% in 2024 to 20.9% by 2027, indicating improving profitability [9][10].