证券之星消息，8月27日物流板块较上一交易日下跌1.81%，永泰运领跌。当日上证指数报收于3800.35， 下跌1.76%。深证成指报收于12295.07，下跌1.43%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603813 | *ST原尚 | 18.43 | 5.01% | 2.46万 | - 4404.89万 | | 603871 | 嘉友国际 | 11.88 | 4.39% | 53.41万 | 6.38亿 | | 002468 | 申通快递 | 18.24 | 1.45% | 38.78万 | 7.05亿 | | 600753 | *ST海钦 | 6.97 | 1.01% | + 4.58万 | 3221.10万 | | 603560 | 长久物流 | 8.84 | 0.23% | 30.18万 | 2.71亿 | | 601598 | 中国外运 | 5.63 | -0.18% | 24.77万 | 1.41亿 | | 601156 | 东航物流 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a "volume increase and price drop" trend, prompting companies to focus on international markets for higher profits amid intensified domestic competition [1][4]. Industry Overview - The express delivery sector is a crucial part of the modern circulation system, connecting various industries and integrating online and offline services [3]. - In the first seven months of this year, China's express delivery volume reached 1,120.5 billion pieces, marking an 18.7% year-on-year increase [4]. Market Dynamics - The industry is projected to exceed 2.5 trillion pieces by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 8%-10%, leading to a market size surpassing 2.8 trillion yuan [4]. - Despite revenue growth, express delivery companies face declining per-package income, indicating a significant challenge in the industry [5][6]. Company Performance - In July, SF Express reported revenue of 24.847 billion yuan, a 9.95% increase, but with a 14.02% drop in per-package income [5]. - YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong also reported revenue growth, but with continued declines in per-package income, highlighting the "volume increase and price drop" issue [5]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is shifting from a "low-price competition" model to a focus on service quality and efficiency, as companies aim to break the cycle of negative profit margins and declining service quality [6][7]. - Regulatory bodies are actively promoting measures to combat "involution" in competition, encouraging companies to enhance service quality rather than engage in price wars [6][7]. International Expansion - The global cross-border logistics market is expected to grow from 13.3 trillion yuan in 2020 to 18.6 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.75% [8]. - Chinese express companies are accelerating their international expansion, with significant increases in their international development index [8][9]. - Companies like Cainiao and JD Logistics are enhancing their international logistics capabilities, establishing new routes and partnerships to improve service efficiency [9][10]. Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue its internationalization, driven by the growth of cross-border e-commerce and international trade [10].

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 8 月 27 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 原油运价持续回暖，白云机场上半年净利润同 比大幅增长 航运方面，原油运价持续回暖，欧美线集运运价继续下跌。航空方面，上半 年我国新开国际航空货运航线数量同比增长超 50%，白云机场上半年实现 净利润 7.50 亿元。物流与交通新业态方面，前 7 个月邮政行业业务收入超 万亿元，顺丰控股 7 月业务量 13.77 亿票。 核心观点 ①原油运价持续回暖，美线集运运价继续下跌。8 月 21 日，上海航运交 易所发布的 CTFI报 1154.72 点，较 8月 14日上涨 8.5%。本周 VLCC市场 中东航线 9 月上旬货盘开始收尾，成交量持续增加；大西洋和美湾航线活 跃度明显提升，成交运价不断回暖。船东延续上周挺价情绪，租家仍通过 私下寻盘降低货盘曝光程度，避免市场过热。目前，整体可用运力仍然足 够，尽管 OPEC+9 月增产确认，但供给端增加可能更大程度上会对油价产 生影响，间接才影响到需求端。欧线集运方面，本周运输市场供需基本面 略显疲软，市场运价继续下跌。8 月 22 日，上海港出口至欧洲基本港市 场运价为 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Recent price increases in express delivery services in Guangdong and Zhejiang are primarily targeting e-commerce clients with low shipping costs, with adjustments ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per order and a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per order [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Multiple express delivery companies in Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with Guangdong being a key area for these adjustments [4]. - The price increase has been in effect since early August, with variations depending on the individual company's circumstances [4]. - Affected e-commerce businesses are those with previously low shipping costs, particularly in regions like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Implications - Industry experts predict that more regions will follow suit in adjusting e-commerce delivery prices, which may improve the performance of express delivery companies in the short term [3][8]. - However, there is skepticism among industry insiders regarding whether the price increase will lead to a corresponding rise in courier wages, with many calling for a minimum wage for couriers instead [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Trends - The ongoing price war in the express delivery sector has led to significant pressure on companies, particularly those operating under a franchise model, resulting in declining revenue per shipment [7]. - Experts foresee potential mergers and acquisitions in the industry as a response to the current challenges, with a shift towards a more concentrated market [8][9]. - The recent price adjustments are viewed as a potential starting point for broader improvements in the industry, including better capital expenditure, technology development, and labor conditions [9].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 23.70% and a recent uptick in trading volume, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the logistics sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of August 26, SF Holding's stock price reached 49.31 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 248.49 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 5.75% increase over the last five trading days and a 3.83% increase over the last 20 days [1]. - The company has seen a net inflow of 18.67 million CNY from major funds, with significant buying activity noted [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, SF Holding reported a revenue of 69.85 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.90%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion CNY, up 16.87% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 19.17 billion CNY, with 13.03 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 167,800, while the average circulating shares per person increased to 28,559 [2]. - The second-largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 337 million shares, an increase of 76.41 million shares from the previous period [3].

顺丰控股：综合物流龙头，业绩再创新高。公司通过"1 到N"的扩张战略，从中国领先的时效快递服务 商快速转型为全球领先的综合物流服务商。受益于时效快递稳步发展、多元化战略持续推进、新业务利 润改善、降本增效成果显著等因素，公司业绩再攀新高峰，2024 年实现归母净利润101.70 亿元，同比 增长23.51%。公司强竞争优势奠定发展基础，业务拓展打开成长空间，长期增长值得期待。 竞争优势奠定发展基础。 （一）商业模式具备先天优势。公司具有独特的商业模式——直营、综合物流、独立第三方。（1）服 务质量领先。公司以端到端直营实现强大的物流网络控制和优质服务，连续16 年（2009-2024 年）位列 快递服务公众满意度第一，领先同行的高品质服务与口碑使公司产品能够保有溢价。（2）资源优势显 著。直营模式通常要求更多的前期投资和运营经验，公司深耕物流服务行业30 多年，建立了高效、可 靠、协同的物流基础设施网络，具备难以复制的资源护城河；鄂州货运枢纽具有战略价值和稀缺性，公 司依托其打造"轴幅式"网络，带来量、质、成本的改善，同时缓解时刻瓶颈。（3）增长空间较大。"直 营+综合物流+独立第三方"构建差异化竞争力，有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading comprehensive logistics provider, achieving record high performance. It has rapidly transformed from a leading express delivery service provider in China to a global comprehensive logistics service provider through its "1 to N" expansion strategy. The company benefits from steady growth in express delivery, ongoing diversification strategies, improved profitability from new businesses, and significant cost reduction and efficiency gains [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company aims to become a global leader in smart logistics solutions, having established a strong market position in China since its inception in 1993. It has undergone three major development phases: focusing on domestic express logistics, diversifying its services, and now positioning itself for global comprehensive logistics [19][21]. 2. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a unique business model characterized by direct management, comprehensive logistics, and independent third-party services. This model ensures high service quality, significant resource advantages, and substantial growth potential [7][46]. 3. Cost Reduction and Lean Management - The company has implemented a multi-network integration strategy that has led to significant cost reductions, with cumulative savings exceeding 3.8 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024. The operational model has been simplified to enhance efficiency, with automation and unmanned logistics being key components [8][36]. 4. Growth Potential - The express delivery business is expected to grow, driven by consumer and industrial demand. The company anticipates an 11.8% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in 2024, with significant contributions from e-commerce returns and industrial logistics [9][11]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 312.49 billion yuan, 339.27 billion yuan, and 370.38 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 11.86 billion yuan, 14.01 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan. The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive advantages and high growth potential, leading to a positive long-term investment outlook [14][18].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced significant growth in volume, with July 2025 seeing 16.4 billion parcels delivered, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a total of 112.05 billion parcels from January to July, up 18.7% year-on-year [1] - The growth is driven by the trend towards smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] - Major players in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong, reported year-on-year volume increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025, with year-to-date increases of 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express led the industry with a 33.7% year-on-year increase in volume for July 2025, attributed to its operational strategies and incentives for frontline staff [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new VAT policies for express delivery services, effective immediately, which will impact revenue collection for express companies [1] - Industry average revenue per parcel decreased to 7.36 yuan in July 2025, down 5.33% year-on-year and 1.76% month-on-month, influenced by the trend towards smaller packages and ongoing price wars [1] - However, there are indications of potential price recovery in August 2025 due to a shift away from aggressive competition [1][2] Company Insights - Key players in the express delivery sector include ZTO Express, SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO International Express, all of which are listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange [3] - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that franchise express companies may see performance recovery in the context of reduced competition [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total volume of 164.0 billion parcels in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total parcel volume reached 1,120.5 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.7%, surpassing the postal administration's forecast of over 8% for the entire year [1] - The growth is driven by the trend of smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return policies [1] Group 2 - In the e-commerce express segment, major players such as YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express reported year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively in July 2025 [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, their respective growth rates were 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% [1] - SF Express achieved a year-on-year growth of 33.7% in July 2025 and 26.9% for the first seven months, attributed to the implementation of operational activation strategies and increased incentives for frontline operations [1] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced new VAT policies for express delivery services, effective immediately, stating that express companies will pay VAT based on "collection and delivery services" [1] - According to Guohai Securities, the industry average revenue per parcel in July 2025 was 7.36 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.33% and a month-on-month decline of 1.76% [2] - The ongoing trend of smaller packages and price wars are impacting revenue per parcel, although there are indications of potential price recovery in August due to a shift away from intense competition [2] Group 4 - The report highlights the potential for recovery in performance for franchise express companies amid the backdrop of reduced competition [2] - The express delivery sector is seeing a narrowing of price declines, with expectations of a slowdown in competitive pressure [2] - The focus remains on the performance growth of time-sensitive express delivery leaders and the valuation recovery opportunities in the e-commerce express segment [2] Group 5 - Related Hong Kong-listed express delivery companies include ZTO Express (02057), SF Holding (06936), SF Express City (09699), JD Logistics (02618), and YTO International Express (06123) [3]