Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company benefited from rising international shipping rates and stable cargo volumes, leading to a 17% year-on-year growth in supply chain and international segments, contributing to a total revenue increase of 10.1% [1][2]. - Cost optimization measures have resulted in a significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 13.9%, the highest level in five years, supporting over 10 billion yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][19]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures to below 10 billion yuan, marking a historical low of 3.3% of revenue, reflecting a focus on core logistics operations and efficient resource management [28]. Financial Information - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with net profit attributable to shareholders approximately 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% [2][25]. - Operating costs increased by only 8.7%, resulting in a gross profit of 39.6 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 19.5% [20][25]. Business Highlights - The total volume of packages handled reached 13.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with a notable growth of 15.3% when excluding divested businesses [3][4]. - The international freight and agency business saw substantial revenue growth, driven by increased demand for international air freight and stable shipping volumes [1][3]. Revenue Structure - The core express delivery segment generated revenue of 206 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%, while the supply chain and international business segments experienced a significant revenue increase of 17.5% [13][18]. - The international freight forwarding segment grew by over 30%, and international express services saw growth exceeding 20% [13]. Cost Management - The company implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a gross margin of 13.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [19][20]. - Operating expenses for 2024 were 26 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.9%, with a comprehensive expense ratio decreasing to 9.2% [25][26]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with free cash flow reaching 22.3 billion yuan [28][30]. - Capital expenditures were reduced to 9.34 billion yuan, representing a 25.1% decrease and the lowest proportion of revenue in history [28]. Shareholder Returns - The company allocated 10.66 billion yuan for dividends and share buybacks in 2024, with a 42% increase in regular dividends [32]. - The share buyback program is ongoing, with a significant portion of previously repurchased shares already canceled, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant milestone with its annual net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating strong potential for continued improvement in profitability [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 284.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the net profit is expected to reach 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company has successfully focused on high-margin express delivery services after divesting from unprofitable segments, leading to improved profitability metrics [2][15]. Revenue and Profitability - The express delivery segment generated revenue of 122.21 billion yuan in 2024, growing 5.8% year-on-year, despite macroeconomic pressures [2][15]. - The company has implemented cost control measures and operational efficiency improvements, resulting in a net profit margin increase to 3.58% for the year [2][16]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 77.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1][10]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company reduced its capital expenditure to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3][16]. - The company is well-positioned to navigate economic cycles due to its robust operational framework and resource management strategies [3][16]. Long-term Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.77 billion yuan, 13.73 billion yuan, and 15.60 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][18]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 40% in 2024, up by 5 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in revenue growth and substantial shareholder returns, recommending active investment in the company [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [4][10] - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of express logistics and supply chain/international operations, leading to double-digit revenue growth in 2024 [6] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company completed 13.26 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with an average price per parcel of 15.5 yuan, down 6.2% [5] - The company’s revenue from express logistics was 205.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The net profit margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% year-on-year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7][10] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.62 billion yuan, 13.23 billion yuan, and 15.14 billion yuan for the same years, with a consistent growth rate of 14% [10][12] Shareholder Returns - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, with free cash flow increasing by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, supporting dividends and share buybacks [10] - The total cash dividend as a percentage of net profit has increased from 20% in 2022 to 40% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10]

Core Insights - SF Holding achieved record-high operating performance in 2024, with revenue reaching approximately 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 10%, and net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.17 billion yuan, a growth of over 20% [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding's revenue increased by 26.01 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking a growth rate of 10.07% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends exceeding 8.9 billion yuan, setting a historical high [2] Business Segments - The express delivery business generated 122.21 billion yuan in revenue, up 5.8% year-on-year, with a business volume increase of 11.8% [5] - The economic express segment reported 27.25 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 8.8%, with a business volume increase of 17.5% [5] - The freight business achieved 37.64 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 13.8% increase, with cargo volume growing over 20% [5] - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segment saw a revenue decline of 4.9% to 9.81 billion yuan, primarily due to climate factors affecting seasonal fresh produce [5] - The same-city instant delivery business grew by 22.4%, generating 8.87 billion yuan [5] - Supply chain and international business revenue exceeded 70.49 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.5%, indicating a solid second growth curve [5] Cost Management - Structural cost reduction has been a significant factor in the net profit growth, with continuous optimization of the network and a decrease in average operating costs [6] - The comprehensive gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 13.93% and 3.59%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [7] Technological Innovation - SF Holding emphasizes technological empowerment, integrating advanced logistics technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [8] - The company has developed proprietary models for logistics decision-making and large language models, improving demand forecasting and operational decision-making [8][9] - The application of automation technologies, such as AGV and RPA, has optimized business processes and enhanced network efficiency [8][9] R&D Investment - Since 2020, SF Holding has invested over 3 billion yuan annually in research and development [10] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 4,180 active and pending patents, with 2,505 software copyrights, of which 61.5% are invention patents [10] - The company aims to accelerate industry transformation by shifting from a "product-selling" model to a "solution-selling" model, expanding its supply chain capabilities [10]

Trading Information - On March 28, 2025, SF Holding (002352) closed at 42.04 yuan, down 0.69%, with a turnover rate of 0.22% and a trading volume of 104,600 shares, amounting to 439 million yuan [1] - The capital flow on the same day showed a net inflow of 13.66 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 3.11% of the total trading volume, while retail investors had a net outflow of 14.01 million yuan, representing 3.19% of the total [1][6] Shareholder Changes - As of February 28, 2025, the number of shareholders of SF Holding was 178,800, a decrease of 10,800 from December 31, 2024, representing a reduction of 5.72% [2][6] - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 25,400 to 26,900 shares, with an average market value of 1.1241 million yuan [2] Performance Disclosure - The 2024 annual report of SF Holding indicated a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, an increase of 10.07% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a single-quarter revenue of 77.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.76%, and a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, up 29.61% year-on-year [3] Company Announcements - The board of directors proposed to increase the cash dividend ratio for 2024 from 35% in 2023 to 40%, with an expected total cash dividend of 4.104 billion yuan for the year [6][7] - The company has repurchased a total of 79.29 million shares, which will be canceled, and announced a second phase of share repurchase with an expected total amount of approximately 758 million yuan [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.6%. The outlook for the company's net profit margin is positive, indicating a sustained improvement [1][5]. - The target price is set at 56.3 RMB, with the current price at 42.04 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 34% [2][5]. - The company has shown resilience in its core express delivery demand, maintaining growth above GDP levels despite macroeconomic pressures. The transition from selling products to providing industry solutions is expected to enhance service penetration [5][10]. - The company has implemented operational changes that have reduced costs and improved efficiency, including a new operational model that has shortened the average distance for delivery personnel by 38% [5][10]. - The international business segment is anticipated to contribute positively to profits, with significant growth in air cargo throughput at Ezhou Airport [5][10]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The express logistics segment generated revenue of 205.8 billion RMB, up 7.7% [5][6]. - The company reported a quarterly net profit of 2.55 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [5][9]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of approximately 4.104 billion RMB for the year, with a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. - The company’s operating data indicates a total express delivery volume of 13.26 billion pieces in 2024, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 predict a net profit of 11.67 billion RMB, 13.70 billion RMB, and 15.60 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.75, and 3.13 RMB [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding (002352.SZ; 6936.HK) reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with revenue reaching 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5%, marking a historical high since its A-share listing. However, losses in the supply chain and international business raise concerns for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding achieved revenue of 284.4 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.5% growth [2]. - The gross profit margin improved from 12.82% to 13.93% [2]. - Despite revenue growth, the supply chain and international business reported a loss of 132 million yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in these segments [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The supply chain and international business generated revenue of 70.49 billion yuan, a 17.5% increase, but continued to incur losses due to restructuring and market pressures [2]. - The core express delivery business faced increased competition, with revenue of 122.21 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase, while the business volume grew by 11.8%, leading to a 3.4% decline in average price per shipment [2]. - The market share of SF Holding in the express delivery sector is 7.57%, below the industry average growth rate of 21.5% [2]. Highlights and Challenges - Same-city instant delivery emerged as a bright spot, with revenue growing by 27.1% to 15.75 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 161.8% to 133 million yuan, driven by an increase in active merchants and coverage in e-commerce returns [3]. - However, the company faces strong competition from rivals like Jitu and Tongda, which are aggressively penetrating the market through price wars [3]. International Expansion - SF Holding made significant strides in its international strategy by becoming the first A+H listed company in the express logistics sector, marking a milestone in its capital market internationalization [4]. - Despite rapid expansion in Southeast Asia and Japan, the company continues to face profitability challenges in overseas markets, with unclear profit models leading to short-term losses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its market position through technological innovation and diversified strategies, focusing on high-efficiency express delivery and air logistics network development [4]. - SF Holding aims to optimize its supply chain and international business to turn losses into profits and strengthen its competitive edge [4]. - In the capital market, the company is taking measures such as cash dividends and share buybacks to boost investor confidence, with operating cash flow reaching 32.19 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 284.4 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion RMB, up 23.5% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The core express logistics business saw a volume increase of 11.5% to 13.26 billion parcels, with revenue from same-city instant delivery rising 22.4% to 8.87 billion RMB [2] - The international and supply chain business grew by 17.5% to 70.49 billion RMB, driven by a significant increase in international express revenue and cross-border e-commerce customer numbers [3] - Operational optimization led to a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 13.9%, with a decrease in cost ratios contributing to improved profitability [4] - The company has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting net profits of 11.80 billion RMB and 14.18 billion RMB respectively, with an EBITDA of 34.90 billion RMB for 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - The express logistics business experienced a volume increase of 11.5% to 132.6 billion parcels, with revenue from time-sensitive, economical, and express services growing by 5.8%, 8.8%, and 13.8% respectively [2] - The same-city delivery segment saw a revenue increase of 22.4% to 8.87 billion RMB, with net profit soaring by 161.8% to 130 million RMB [2] International and Supply Chain - The international and supply chain segment's revenue increased by 17.5% to 70.49 billion RMB, with international express revenue growing over 20% and cross-border e-commerce customers increasing by 24% [3] - The company’s domestic cargo volume accounted for 31.1% of the national air cargo transport volume, with international flights increasing by 19% to 9,100 flights [3] Operational Efficiency - The company implemented operational optimizations that improved gross margins and reduced cost ratios, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [4] - Future strategies include enhancing logistics network intelligence and promoting smart supply chain applications to sustain cost reductions and efficiency improvements [4] Financial Projections - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with projected net profits of 11.80 billion RMB and 14.18 billion RMB respectively, and an EBITDA of 34.90 billion RMB for 2025 [5] - The target prices for A-shares and H-shares are set at 48.70 RMB and 51.30 HKD respectively, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and has opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The company's profitability and cash flow have maintained high growth, indicating an improvement in profit efficiency and value enhancement [2][3] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The express delivery and large parcel segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of approximately 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to approximately 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of approximately 1.32 billion yuan [5] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The peak period for capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, and free cash flow rose by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected total dividend payout of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The report highlights that the company's profit and cash flow maintain high growth, indicating an improvement in profitability efficiency [2][3] - The company is expected to have a significant long-term value potential as a leading integrated express logistics provider [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.61% [3] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] Segment Performance Summary - The express and freight segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of about 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The same-city instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of 1.32 billion yuan [5] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The peak period of capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, while free cash flow surged by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the end of 2024, with an expected total dividend amount of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9][10]