A hold P de 124 作者 | 王小娟 编辑 | 黄昱 快递行业巨头顺丰主动让出的蛋糕，也可能是一块难啃的硬骨头。 与此同时，抖音电商加速成为头部电商平台的同时，退货率也居高不下，对于成本的考量等方面也有了更严格的要求。 根据行业消息，抖音2025年全年GMV将迈过4万亿元关口，体量逼近电商巨头拼多多。在如此庞大的交易规模下，物流成本的微小波动都将被显著放大。 而抖音电商与传统货架电商在退货物流上面临着截然不同的挑战。 传统货架电商退货相对稳定，用户经过比较和思考后下单，退货多为商品不符或质量问题。这些平台的物流服务商通常采用规模化、标准化的处理方式。 直播电商则依赖主播推荐和即时促销，冲动消费比例高。这种消费模式导致退货率高于传统电商平台。高峰期的退货压力可能突然爆发，需要物流服务商具 备高度灵活性和弹性。 近日，有市场消息称，顺丰并未参与2026年抖音电商退货服务，系其主动放弃该业务市场。12月19日，顺丰方面作出回应，称顺丰与抖音电退业务合作合同 自然到期终止，属于正常商业行为。 据了解，从12月中旬起，抖音平台开始对退货服务供应商进行大规模重新招标，原本由顺丰承担的订单被拆分至多家企业，形成 ...

Group 1 - The Super Brand concept index declined by 0.48%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with notable declines in stocks such as Aucma, Zhonggong Education, and TCL Technology [1] - Among the Super Brand concept stocks, 13 stocks saw price increases, with Anfu Technology, SF Holding, and Dong'e Ejiao leading the gains at 2.40%, 1.22%, and 1.11% respectively [1] - The Super Brand concept experienced a net outflow of 1.662 billion yuan from main funds, with 32 stocks facing net outflows, and 7 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stocks included China Mobile, TCL Technology, and Kweichow Moutai, with net outflows of 359.45 million yuan, 219.80 million yuan, and 155.96 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included SF Holding, Dong'e Ejiao, and Yunnan Baiyao, with net inflows of 89.39 million yuan, 34.34 million yuan, and 14.78 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume for China Mobile was 2.28%, while TCL Technology had a turnover rate of 2.06% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the express delivery industry is experiencing a recovery in performance due to price increases and seasonal volume growth, with a recommendation for leading companies like SF Holding and Zhongtong Express [1][5] - In November, the express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The average unit price for SF Holding increased by 0.29 yuan in November, indicating a shift from scale-driven growth to value-driven growth, which is beneficial for profit margin recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The express delivery industry saw a significant price increase of 1.9% month-on-month in November, with the average unit price at 7.62 yuan, although it remains down 8.3% year-on-year [4] - The competitive landscape is changing, with a focus on high-quality development and a notable shift in market dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend, which has led to price recovery since August [5] - The market share for express delivery companies from January to November shows that Zhongtong holds 15.6%, Shentong 13.1%, Yunda 13.0%, and SF Holding 8.4%, with SF Holding gaining 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities recommends focusing on leading companies in the express delivery industry, particularly SF Holding and Zhongtong Express, due to expected improvements in operational and cash flow performance as the industry undergoes significant changes and price recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.82 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In November, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express delivered 2.886 billion parcels, Shentong Express 2.502 billion, Yunda Express 2.175 billion, and SF Holding 1.534 billion. SF Holding showed the highest growth rate at 20.13% [3]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to November, the figures were: YTO Express 28.26 billion parcels, Shentong Express 23.64 billion, Yunda Express 23.45 billion, and SF Holding 15.16 billion, with SF Holding leading in growth rate at 27.25% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a 1.9% month-on-month increase in average pricing in November, with the average price per parcel at 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [4]. - SF Holding's average price per parcel increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month to 13.47 yuan, while Shentong Express's price rose by 0.23 yuan to 2.41 yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce, despite a downward trend in the average value of goods per parcel [5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is leading to price recovery and a shift towards high-quality development, suggesting a potential acceleration in market differentiation among companies [5].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The global first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft has completed its maiden flight, and domestic express delivery volume has increased by 14.9% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [2][3] - Crude oil shipping rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported 2280.86 points, down 1.9% from December 11 [3][14] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, marking it as a special customs supervision area, with express delivery volume reaching 1807.4 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year [3][21] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil shipping rates have decreased, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The VLCC market is experiencing a wait-and-see attitude as shipping owners maintain a strong sentiment despite a high number of bids [3][14] - The first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, "Lan Ying R6000," developed by Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., has completed its first test flight, enhancing the low-altitude economy and local industrial chain [3][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has started full island closure, with significant logistics policy benefits and a notable increase in express delivery volume [3][21] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index reported 6369.00 points, up 11.3% year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flight numbers have decreased year-on-year, while international flights have increased significantly [27] - The express delivery business volume in November 2025 increased by 5.00% year-on-year, while the total express delivery volume for the first 11 months reached 1807.41 billion pieces, a 14.90% increase [46] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy sector, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Look into investment opportunities in the cruise and water ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - Monitor investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Focus on investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation Holding, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

【#宠物邮寄乱象调查#：#活体宠物顺丰邮寄与普通快递混运#】 "快递到的时候就死了。"邵琳（化 名）没想到，前两天还在镜头前活蹦乱跳的小猫，竟然会死在快递车上。邵琳说，如果早知道是这个结 果，自己就不会选择在直播间下单购买。而更让邵琳不解的是，卖家为何不使用宠物专车托运，而使用 顺丰邮寄小猫？@新京报 记者调查发现，通过顺丰邮寄猫狗的情况并非个案，一些宠物卖家甚至将"通 过顺丰邮寄"当作销售噱头。今年9月下旬，新京报记者在江苏徐州等地调查发现，作为全国重要的宠物 繁育基地，徐州聚集大量销售宠物的网络卖家，每天都有大量活体宠物通过顺丰的快递网络，与其他货 物一起发往全国各地。而在邮寄过程中，不仅可以不用填写真实的寄件人信息，也不需要寄件人提供相 关检疫证明。"采用普通快递寄递活物，违反了《中华人民共和国邮政法》和《快递暂行条例》等法律 法规。"物流行业专家、《现代物流报》社长杨达卿介绍说，根据《中华人民共和国动物防疫法》及其 他相关规定，猫和狗需要取得动物检疫证明方能运输。一些平台也有类似规定，如国内某短视频平台宠 物交易售后保障与服务指南中，也明确提到，宠物须通过航空有氧舱运输或陆运专车派送，不采用快递 形式 ...

新京报记者调查发现，通过顺丰邮寄猫狗的情况并非个案，一些宠物卖家甚至将"通过顺丰邮寄"当作销 售噱头。 "快递到的时候就死了。"邵琳（化名）没想到，前两天还在镜头前活蹦乱跳的小猫，竟然会死在快递车 上。 邵琳说，如果早知道是这个结果，自己就不会选择在直播间下单购买。而更让邵琳不解的是，卖家为何 不使用宠物专车托运，而使用顺丰邮寄小猫？ 采写 新京报调查组 实习生 申钰棋 校对 李立军 今年9月下旬，新京报记者在江苏徐州等地调查发现，作为全国重要的宠物繁育基地，徐州聚集大量销 售宠物的网络卖家，每天都有大量活体宠物通过顺丰的快递网络，与其他货物一起发往全国各地。而在 邮寄过程中，不仅可以不用填写真实的寄件人信息，也不需要寄件人提供相关检疫证明。 "采用普通快递寄递活物，违反了《中华人民共和国邮政法》和《快递暂行条例》等法律法规。"物流行 业专家、《现代物流报》社长杨达卿介绍说，根据《中华人民共和国动物防疫法》及其他相关规定，猫 和狗需要取得动物检疫证明方能运输。一些平台也有类似规定，如国内某短视频平台宠物交易售后保障 与服务指南中，也明确提到，宠物须通过航空有氧舱运输或陆运专车派送，不采用快递形式配送。 小猫死 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].