2025 年 07 月 22 日 快递持仓占比大幅提升，航运股退 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 评 看好 ——2025Q2 交运行业基金重仓分析 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 出基金重仓前十大 - ⚫ 交运内部快递持仓环比大幅提升，航运股退出基金重仓前十大。Q2 交运消费相关的快 递机构持仓大幅提升，航运、铁路运输、港口、高速公路及原材料供应链服务持仓均有 所下降。 ⚫ 2025Q2 交运行业基金配置总市值达到 258 亿元，环比增长 17%，配置总市值在申万 31 个行业中排名第 14 名，环比 Q1 持平。交运行业基金持仓占全部基金重仓持股的 1.97%，环比 Q1 提升 0.32pct。交运行业市值 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the increase in the minimum express delivery price in Yiwu is expected to alleviate price pressure in the third quarter, but it does not address the fundamental issues of overcapacity and service homogenization in the industry [1][3] - The average delivery price in Yiwu has been raised by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective from July 18 [1] - Bank of America believes that if there is no industry consolidation, any increase in average prices will not be sustainable [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised the expected earnings per share for YTO Express, Shentong, and Jitu by 6-7% for the years 2025-2027 [2] - Target prices for these companies have been increased by 18-32% based on the mixed expectations for 2025/2026 [2] - The company maintains a neutral rating on Zhongtong due to slow market share growth but reasonable valuation [2] Group 3 - The structural negative impact on average price and market share control is highlighted, indicating that the price war is unlikely to stop as long as overcapacity exists [3] - Merchants can circumvent the price control by sending packages to nearby areas without such controls [3] - Bank of America suggests that the focus should be on improving the welfare of couriers rather than merely adjusting price controls [3]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking and insurance stocks continuing to decline, while the liquor and food & beverage sectors experienced gains [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 249.93 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a decline of 0.09 (-1.59%) [3]. - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 436.27 billion, 347.77 billion, and 1,028.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 991 million, 2.11 billion, and 462 million, reflecting declines of 0.51 (-1.39%), 0.70 (-1.22%), and 0.07 (-0.83%) [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continued to face downward pressure, with significant declines in major companies [3]. Liquor Industry - The liquor sector saw positive movement, with Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye reporting market capitalizations of 1,820.06 billion, 225.24 billion, and 482.06 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 2.14 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.15 billion, with increases of 4.34 (+2.41%), 1.63 (+1.33%), and 5.86 (+0.41%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed varied performance, with Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information having market capitalizations of 229.98 billion, 248.67 billion, and 316.92 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 1.33 billion, 2.71 billion, and 1.24 billion, with changes of -1.34 (-0.42%), +12.40 (+2.13%), and -0.32 (-0.23%) [3]. Oil Industry - The oil sector, including companies like Sinopec and PetroChina, reported market capitalizations of 725.05 billion and 1,643.53 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 758 million and 563 million, showing slight increases [3]. Coal Industry - The coal sector, represented by companies like Shenhua Group and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, had market capitalizations of 750.04 billion and 189.83 billion respectively, with minimal changes in stock prices [3]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD, reported a market capitalization of 1,849.01 billion with a trading volume of 3.54 billion, showing a slight increase of 2.39 (+0.72%) [3]. Other Sectors - Various other sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and logistics showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced declines [4][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is projected to reach a business volume of 204 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6%. The growth rate for the first half of the year was 19.3%, while the second half is expected to be around 14% [1][5] - The average price decline for the year is anticipated to be -6.9%, indicating a slowdown in price competition due to the application of unmanned technologies that reduce costs [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The State Post Bureau has emphasized anti-involution policies to alleviate low-price competition during the summer off-peak season, similar to measures taken in 2021 [1][6] - E-commerce platforms are undermining express companies' data control capabilities through data privacy measures, which restrict their commercial development and service quality improvements [1][10] - The rise of instant retail may harm seller interests, prompting the State Administration for Market Regulation to address related platforms [1][11] - The changing global manufacturing landscape is impacting international express companies, with Chinese logistics firms expected to dominate the global market by 2035, with five out of the top ten express logistics companies projected to be from China [1][17][18] Regional Competition and Market Dynamics - There is a notable regional price competition phenomenon, particularly in Hebei and Henan, where aggressive pricing strategies are observed [1][7] - The express delivery market in Zhejiang is experiencing a decline in its national share, indicating a shift in business dynamics due to high labor and rental costs [1][12][15] Company-Specific Insights - J&T Express is recognized for its innovative internet-based approach, rapidly expanding market share through a unique shareholding model that combines direct sales and franchising [1][4][22] - SF Express reported a business volume growth of 25.7% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry average by 6.4 percentage points, attributed to operational model innovations [1][32][33] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to generate revenues of 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with potential growth to four to five trillion yuan in the future [1][29] - The anticipated growth in cross-border e-commerce and customized logistics services is expected to significantly contribute to the industry's expansion [1][29][30] Additional Important Insights - The impact of leadership changes in postal companies can significantly affect performance, with new leadership often driving positive results [1][35] - The performance evaluation systems differ between postal and private enterprises, with private companies focusing on profit maximization [1][36] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the express delivery industry, highlighting growth projections, competitive dynamics, and the implications of regulatory policies.

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Public Transport Group is collaborating with SF Express to explore a new model of "public transport + logistics + ecology," despite initial misinformation circulating online about their operations [1][4][7]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed on July 1, 2023, between Zhengzhou Public Transport Group and SF Express, focusing on resource integration and upgrading public services [1][5]. - The logistics sorting and transfer center at the Foga Bus Station has already handled over 500 tons of express deliveries, indicating successful initial outcomes [4][6]. - The partnership aims to enhance operational efficiency, reduce logistics costs, and improve the utilization of public transport resources [6][7]. Group 2: Operational Insights - The Foga Bus Station has been transformed into a sorting station for SF Express, utilizing existing facilities due to reduced maintenance needs from the electrification of vehicles [5][6]. - Currently, there are 90 staff members at the sorting center, with SF Express operating a fleet of various delivery vehicles [6][8]. - The collaboration is expected to create job opportunities, with SF Express requesting 280 personnel from Zhengzhou Public Transport Group [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The partnership is a response to national policies promoting the integration of transportation and modern logistics, addressing financial pressures faced by public transport companies [7][8]. - The collaboration is designed to diversify revenue streams for public transport, reduce reliance on government subsidies, and enhance service competitiveness [7][8]. - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group operates a comprehensive network with 5,218 vehicles and 361 routes, providing a strong foundation for this partnership [8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The strategic agreement is framework-based, with further details to be refined as initial cooperation progresses [10]. - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group is open to collaborating with other qualified companies, aiming for a win-win situation through resource sharing and innovation [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in fund sizes managed by prominent fund managers Zhang Kun and Xie Zhiyu during the second quarter, with Zhang's total fund size dropping to 55.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.775 billion yuan, and Xie's fund size at 39.266 billion yuan, down by approximately 446 million yuan [2] - Zhang Kun remains heavily invested in the consumer and technology sectors, increasing holdings in liquor stocks such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, while reducing positions in Tencent Holdings and China Merchants Bank [2][3] - Xie Zhiyu has made new investments in Hong Kong innovative drug companies, including Innovent Biologics and Nuo Cheng Jianhua, while also increasing positions in his funds [2][12] Group 2 - Zhang Kun expressed that the pessimistic expectations in the market will eventually be broken, indicating that a sign of this would be when long-term government bond yields no longer remain at low levels that do not match economic development prospects [12] - Xie Zhiyu noted that the consumer sector is benefiting from an acceleration in policy subsidies, particularly in new consumption areas represented by tea drinks and trendy toys, although he cautioned that demand growth may face challenges in the second half of the year due to base effect declines [18] - The report indicates that Zhang Kun's flagship fund, E Fund Blue Chip, saw a decrease in size from 38.908 billion yuan to 34.943 billion yuan, with a stable stock position of 93.06% [3][5]

金融界7月21日消息，上证指数高开高走，中证中国内地企业全球工业综合指数(CN工业综合，H30377) 报2551.47点。 从指数持仓来看，中证中国内地企业全球工业综合指数十大权重分别为：宁德时代（6.34%）、京沪高 铁（1.46%）、汇川技术（1.11%）、中国建筑（1.09%）、三一重工（1.01%）、顺丰控股（1.01%）、 阳光电源（0.97%）、隆基绿能（0.89%）、中远海控（0.86%）、满帮集团（0.83%）。 从中证中国内地企业全球工业综合指数持仓的市场板块来看，深圳证券交易所占比47.15%、上海证券 交易所占比45.01%、香港证券交易所占比4.38%、纽约证券交易所占比1.60%、北京证券交易所占比 0.91%、纳斯达克全球精选市场证券交易所(Consolidated Issue)占比0.56%、新加坡证券交易所占比 0.24%、纳斯达克股票市场证券交易所(Consolidated Large Cap)占比0.09%、纳斯达克证券交易所 (Consolidated Capital Market)占比0.06%。 从中证中国内地企业全球工业综合指数持仓样本的行业来看，电力设备占比29 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Kun's funds under management reached 55.047 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, including four funds: E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Quality Selection, E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Holding, and E Fund Asia Selection [1] - In Q2 2025, significant portfolio changes included new positions in JD Health, increased holdings in SF Holding, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yum China, while reducing positions in Tencent Holdings, Yanghe Brewery, and Meituan [1] - The top ten holdings at the end of Q2 included Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, JD Health, SF Holding, and Yum China [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 Index rise by 1.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.34%, while the Hong Kong market experienced a 4.12% increase in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The real estate sector faced challenges, with new residential sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, and real estate development investment down by 10.7% [2] - CPI showed negative growth for four consecutive months from February to May, indicating downward pressure on prices, while the stock market exhibited significant sector divergence [2] Group 3 - The company does not share the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and economy, highlighting that per capita GDP still has room for growth compared to developed countries [3] - The company believes that the pessimistic expectations will eventually be broken, with a key indicator being the long-term bond yields aligning with economic growth prospects [3] - The company will continuously assess the competitiveness of its portfolio companies during economic downturns and their potential to strengthen their market position during recoveries [3]

金十图示：2025年07月21日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行板块全天表现低迷，能源、汽车板块集体 收涨 富时中国A50指数连续 -0.03(-0.53%) +0.04(+0.47%) -0.08(-0.68%) 光大银行 2522.95亿市值 6.05亿成交额 4.27 -0.03(-0.70%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 帆 3723.66亿市值 3526.82亿市值 10414.43亿市值 15.20亿成交额 26.71亿成交额 5.53亿成交额 36.66 57.19 8.42 -0.43(-1.16%) +0.12(+0.21%) +0.03(+0.36%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18126.93亿市值 2199.47亿市值 4757.30亿市值 37.80亿成交额 23.04亿成交额 16.64亿成交额 180.29 1443.00 122.56 +6.00(+0.42%) -1.22(-0.99%) -0.81(-0.45%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2309.49亿市值 2434.80亿市值 3176.67亿市值 1 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - In June, SF Express reported a revenue of 19.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.24%, with a business volume of 1.460 billion parcels, up 31.77%, but a single ticket revenue of 13.67 yuan, down 13.32% [1] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 5.527 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, up 19.34%, while single ticket revenue decreased by 6.69% to 2.10 yuan [1] - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.341 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, with a business volume of 2.184 billion parcels, up 11.14%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.99 yuan, down 1.00% [1] - Yunda Express had a revenue of 4.149 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a business volume of 2.173 billion parcels, up 7.41%, and a single ticket revenue of 1.91 yuan, down 4.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - In the first half of the year, YTO Express led the sector with a revenue of 34.2 billion yuan and a business volume of 14.86 billion parcels, while Shentong and Yunda's revenue and business volume were closely matched, with Yunda at 24.904 billion yuan and 12.726 billion parcels, and Shentong at 24.868 billion yuan and 12.347 billion parcels [2] - The industry is currently experiencing intensified low-price competition due to severe homogenization, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the situation in the second half of the year, promoting a new balance among regulation, competition, profitability, and quality [2] - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need for enhanced industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution-style" competition, indicating a potential shift towards higher quality development in the express delivery sector [2]