Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a recovery in both volume and pricing due to anti-involution measures, with significant revenue growth observed among major players in September. Group 1: Performance Metrics - SF Express achieved a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, a growth rate of 31.81%, with revenue reaching 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21%, but a decrease in average revenue per parcel by 13.31% to 13.87 yuan [1] - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, a growth of 13.64%, with revenue of 5.799 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.21 yuan, an increase of 1.09% [1] - Yunda Express had a business volume of 2.110 billion parcels, growing by 3.63%, with revenue of 4.252 billion yuan, up 4.14%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.02 yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion parcels, a growth of 9.46%, with revenue of 4.633 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.12 yuan, an increase of 4.95% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The industry is seeing a slowdown in growth rates due to price increases, with SF Express leading the market for seven consecutive months, achieving an average daily volume of over 50 million parcels in September [2] - The State Post Bureau anticipates a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in express delivery volume and 7% in revenue for September, with total volume expected to reach around 1.45 trillion parcels and revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters [2] - The anti-involution price increase actions have been expanding nationwide since July, showing positive effects on the performance of major express companies as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3: Challenges for Frontline Operations - While headquarters are benefiting from anti-involution measures, frontline outlets are facing varied situations, with some reporting increased losses due to rising shipping costs without a corresponding decrease in volume assessments [4] - Many outlets are struggling with the implementation of price increases, with some areas not fully passing on the increased costs to customers, leading to concerns about profitability during the peak season [5] - Despite the overall price increases, frontline outlets are still waiting for adjustments in delivery fees, with some regions only seeing minor increases, which do not alleviate the financial pressures faced by these outlets [6]

Core Insights - The company has launched a specialized cultural tourism service in Rizhao, focusing on convenience, efficiency, and customer satisfaction, with over 100,000 tourists served during the National Day holiday and more than 12,000 delivery orders processed [1] Group 1: Service Implementation - SF Express has established a logistics center at Rizhao High-Speed Railway Station, providing comprehensive services across logistics operations, customer experience, business expansion, and resource integration [3] - The self-service network includes 2 smart lockers and multiple self-service delivery cabinets, significantly enhancing the travel experience by allowing quick parcel processing in under one minute [3] Group 2: Collaboration with Local Transport - SF Express has partnered with Rizhao Public Transport Group to create a "passenger-cargo-mail integration" model, optimizing bus routes for parcel delivery without additional resources [5] - The collaboration includes establishing SF Express bus express points at major transport hubs, improving the accessibility of delivery services for residents [6] Group 3: Enhancing Tourist Experience - The company has integrated its services into the entire travel process, including creating a dynamic tourism map that highlights service points and offering exclusive discounts for tourists [7] - SF Express has set up delivery points at key tourist attractions, allowing visitors to send local products home easily, thus enhancing their shopping experience [7] Group 4: Hotel Partnerships - SF Express has collaborated with local hotels to provide luggage delivery services, allowing tourists to send their bags directly to hotels and pick them up after check-out, enhancing convenience [10] - The initiative transforms hotels into logistics hubs, enabling a seamless travel experience for tourists [10]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪， 9 月多 家快递公司"量价齐升" 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上 涨。航空方面沃兰特 VE25-100 eVTOL 成功完成首轮试飞，三大航 9 月运 营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战 略合作，9 月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10 月 16 日，上海航运交易所发布的 CTFI 指数报 1791.28 点，较 10 月 9 日上 涨 27.3%。本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 11 月初货盘陆续进场，国际政治 与贸易消息对市场情绪影响明显，美国宣布对中国原油码头实施制裁， 中国宣布反制措施对美资船舶征收对等港口费，短期内加剧中美航运关 系紧张的担忧，推升了市场的避险情绪。随着中国交通运输部发布的关 于对美船舶征收特别港务费的实施细则落地，中国建造船舶可豁免缴纳 该费用的条款，成交运价也在大幅上涨后高位企稳。欧线方面，本周运 输需求总体稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's stock performance in 2023 has been disappointing, with a significant decline in share price and market capitalization [2][3] Financial Performance - As of the latest closing, SF Holding's stock price is 40.09 CNY per share, with a total market value of 202 billion CNY [2] - In the first half of the year, SF Holding achieved revenue of 146.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, and a net profit of 5.738 billion CNY, up 19.37% [7] - The second quarter saw revenue of 77.01 billion CNY, growing 11.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.504 billion CNY, increasing 21.02% [7] Stock Price Decline - SF Holding's stock price has dropped over 17% since August 27, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 40 billion CNY [2][3] - The decline is attributed to the "Common Growth" stock incentive plan announced at the end of August, which involves the controlling shareholder gifting up to 200 million A-shares to employees [3][4] Employee Incentive Plan - The "Common Growth" plan, proposed by Chairman Wang Wei, involves a total value of approximately 9.68 billion CNY based on the stock price at the time of announcement [4] - The plan covers a wide range of employees, including not only executives but also frontline staff like couriers and operators [4] Market Reaction - The market's negative reaction is due to perceived leniency in the performance assessment criteria of the incentive plan, which only requires a positive growth rate in net profit for stock grants [5] - Concerns also arise from the potential long-term impact on company profits, as the plan will incur accounting costs despite the shares being gifted [6] Business Segments - SF Holding's main business segments include express delivery and large items, supply chain and international, and same-city instant delivery [8] - The express delivery and large items segment generated revenue of 104.773 billion CNY in the first half of the year, growing 8.21% year-on-year [8] - The same-city instant delivery segment saw a significant revenue increase of 38.77%, reaching 5.583 billion CNY [8] Pricing and Profitability - The average price per delivery has decreased to 14 CNY, a drop of 12.2% year-on-year, impacting the company's gross margin, which fell to approximately 13.22% [9] - The gross margin decline reflects the competitive pressures within the express delivery industry [9]

Summary of China Logistics Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China logistics industry**, particularly the express delivery sector, highlighting the performance of key players in September 2025. Key Companies Discussed - **YTO Express (600233 CH)** - **STO Express (002468 CH)** - **Yunda Holding (002120 CH)** - **SF Holding (002352 CH)** - **J&T Express (1519 HK)** - **JD Logistics (2618 HK)** - **ZTO Express (Cayman)** Core Insights and Arguments - **ASP Recovery**: In September 2025, the Average Selling Price (ASP) for Tongda players showed recovery, with YTO, STO, and Yunda increasing their ASP by Rmb 6, 6, and 10 cents month-over-month, translating to year-over-year changes of +1.1%, +4.95%, and +0.5% respectively [1][1][1] - **Revenue Growth**: - YTO achieved a **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **13.6% parcel volume growth**. - STO also reported **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **9.5% parcel volume growth**. - Yunda underperformed with only **4.1% year-over-year revenue growth** and **3.6% parcel volume growth**. - SF's parcel volume grew by **31.8% year-over-year**, contributing to a **14.2% revenue growth** despite a sequential ASP recovery [1][1][1]. - **Market Positioning**: - YTO and STO are noted for balancing volume and price effectively, while Yunda is expected to continue losing market share. - SF's strong parcel volume growth indicates effective optimization strategies in its economy express segment [1][1][1]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - The current pecking order for e-commerce express players is: **J&T (Buy) > STO (Buy) > ZTO (Buy) > YTO (Neutral) > YUNDA (Sell)**. - For premium express players, the order is **SF (Buy) > JDL (Buy)** [1][1][1]. - **Future Outlook**: - Anticipation of further ASP recovery in the upcoming peak season for e-commerce, which could positively impact ZTO and J&T. - J&T Express is highlighted as a top pick due to its superior parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia and potential ASP recovery in China [1][1][1]. Additional Important Points - **Performance Metrics**: - Detailed metrics for September 2025 show YTO with **2,627 million parcels** (13.6% YoY), STO with **2,187 million parcels** (9.5% YoY), Yunda with **2,110 million parcels** (3.6% YoY), and SF with **1,504 million parcels** (31.8% YoY) [3][3][3]. - **ASP Trends**: - ASP for YTO was Rmb 2.21, for STO Rmb 2.12, for Yunda Rmb 2.02, and for SF Rmb 13.87, indicating significant differences in pricing strategies among the players [3][3][3]. - **Strategic Considerations**: - JDL's valuation is considered attractive with limited downside potential, although uncertainties exist regarding JD's strategies for food delivery and overseas expansion [1][1][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategic positioning of major players in the China logistics industry.

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing varied performance among major players, with significant differences in business volume and revenue per package, indicating a competitive landscape and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Business Volume - SF Express leads the market with a business volume of 15.04 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.8% and a cumulative growth of 28.3% [1] - Shentong and Yunda follow with business volumes of 21.87 billion pieces (9.5% YoY, 17.1% cumulative) and 21.10 billion pieces (3.6% YoY, 13.0% cumulative) respectively [1] - YTO Express has a business volume of 26.27 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% and a cumulative growth of 19.4% [1] Group 2: Revenue per Package - SF Express reported a revenue per package of 13.87 yuan, down 13.3% YoY but up 4.5% month-on-month [4] - Shentong's revenue per package is 2.12 yuan, reflecting a 5.0% YoY increase and a 2.9% month-on-month increase [4] - Yunda's revenue per package stands at 2.02 yuan, with a slight YoY increase of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [4] - YTO Express has a revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, showing a 1.1% YoY increase and a 2.8% month-on-month increase [4] Group 3: Overall Revenue - SF Express generated a total revenue of 208.54 billion yuan, marking a 14.2% YoY increase and an 11.8% month-on-month increase [4] - Shentong's total revenue reached 46.33 billion yuan, with a 14.9% YoY increase and a 4.5% month-on-month increase [4] - Yunda reported a total revenue of 42.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.1% YoY increase and a 3.2% month-on-month increase [4] - YTO Express achieved a total revenue of 57.99 billion yuan, with a 14.9% YoY increase and a 7.6% month-on-month increase [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The industry is expected to see further performance improvements as the peak season in October approaches, validating the pricing logic observed in August and September [5] - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards increased efficiency and profitability, driven by competitive strategies and market dynamics [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Tongda system's single ticket revenue has continued to increase month-on-month, with an increase of over 0.1 yuan compared to July, suggesting potential performance elasticity in the future [2]. - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the "anti-involution" theme, particularly focusing on companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have shown strong performance indicators [7][9]. - The report notes that the express delivery companies have experienced varying growth rates in business volume and revenue, with SF Express leading in business volume growth at 31.8% year-on-year for September [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The express delivery industry consists of 5 listed companies with a total market value of 341.66 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 328.83 billion yuan [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been -5.8%, 5.2%, and 2.9% respectively, while the relative performance has been -5.0%, -14.5%, and -16.3% [5]. Company Performance - In September, the business volume year-on-year growth rates were as follows: SF Express (31.8%), YTO Express (13.6%), Shentong Express (9.5%), and Yunda Express (3.6%) [7][9]. - Revenue growth rates for September were led by Shentong and YTO, both at 14.9%, followed by SF Express at 14.2% and Yunda at 4.1% [9]. - The single ticket revenue for September showed an increase for the Tongda system, with Shentong at 2.12 yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year), Yunda at 2.02 yuan (up 0.5%), and YTO at 2.21 yuan (up 1.1%) [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce express delivery opportunities, particularly highlighting YTO and Shentong as key investment targets due to their strong performance indicators and potential for revenue and earnings elasticity [7]. - It also suggests continued investment in SF Express, noting its leading business volume growth and potential for sustainable free cash flow optimization [7].

Core Insights - SF Holding has achieved a total revenue of 27.007 billion yuan in September, marking an 8.78% year-on-year increase, driven by the peak delivery season during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - The express logistics segment generated revenue of 20.854 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.21% year-on-year growth, with a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, up 31.81% [2] Group 1: Logistics and Service Expansion - SF Holding has enhanced its logistics capabilities by establishing temporary collection points and deploying specialized service teams, utilizing smart devices like unmanned vehicles and drones to improve efficiency [3] - The company has launched its first intelligent transfer center for hairy crabs in Suzhou, featuring an automated sorting system that can sort over 20,000 items per hour and handle more than 400,000 items daily [3] Group 2: Market Development and Brand Integration - SF Holding is integrating logistics with branding and traffic, improving crab packaging to reflect local culture while enhancing freshness [5] - The company has tailored logistics solutions to meet the needs of local industries, such as establishing a three-tier delivery network in Shaanxi to assist fruit farmers [5] Group 3: International Expansion - SF Holding has expanded its international logistics network by launching a new cargo route from Ezhou to Chicago, enhancing its cross-border service capabilities [6] - The company’s air cargo fleet has grown to 90 aircraft, covering domestic and international markets, thereby supporting global logistics services [8] Group 4: ESG Performance - SF Holding's ESG rating has improved from "BBB" to "A," making it the first logistics company in China to achieve this rating, reflecting its strong performance in environmental, social, and governance aspects [9] - The enhanced ESG performance is expected to bolster the company's brand credibility and support its long-term investment value [9]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express is enhancing its core competitiveness in logistics through capacity expansion and network optimization while achieving significant breakthroughs in ESG value construction, thereby strengthening its long-term development moat [1][14]. Financial Performance - In September, SF Express reported a total revenue of 27.007 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.78% [2]. - The express logistics segment generated revenue of 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21% year-on-year, with a business volume of 1.504 billion shipments, reflecting a growth of 31.81% [2]. - The average revenue per shipment was 13.87 yuan, while the supply chain and international business contributed 6.153 billion yuan in revenue [2]. Service Expansion and Innovation - SF Express has been actively enhancing its logistics services for seasonal products, such as the hairy crab, by establishing temporary collection points and deploying specialized service teams, along with smart logistics technologies like unmanned vehicles and drones [5][6]. - The company launched its first intelligent transfer center for hairy crabs in Suzhou, featuring an automated sorting system capable of processing over 20,000 items per hour and exceeding 400,000 items daily [6]. Market Development Strategies - SF Express is integrating logistics with branding and traffic, improving packaging to reflect local cultural characteristics while enhancing freshness [8]. - The company is also collaborating with e-commerce platforms to provide comprehensive logistics services, facilitating the distribution of hairy crabs to a broader consumer base [8]. - In Hong Kong, SF Express has tailored its services to meet local demand, offering seamless delivery from the lake area to Shenzhen pickup points [8]. International Expansion - SF Express is expanding its international logistics network, recently launching a new cargo route from Ezhou to Chicago, enhancing its North American service capabilities [10]. - The company’s air cargo fleet has grown to 90 aircraft, covering domestic and international markets, thereby supporting the dual circulation development pattern in China [12]. ESG Performance - SF Express has achieved a significant upgrade in its ESG rating from MSCI, moving from "BBB" to "A," making it the first logistics company in China to receive this rating [15]. - This recognition underscores the company's strong performance in environmental, social, and governance aspects, which is increasingly important for brand credibility and long-term operational risk reduction [15].

Core Insights - SF Holding reported a total revenue of 27.007 billion yuan in September, marking an 8.78% year-on-year increase [1] - The express logistics business generated revenue of 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21% year-on-year, with a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, reflecting a 31.81% increase [1] - The company is enhancing its domestic market presence through customized logistics solutions that support local industry development [1] Domestic Market Development - SF Holding is focusing on key production areas in Shaanxi, establishing a "county-town-village" three-tier delivery service network to address local farmers' needs for nearby shipping [1] - The integration of logistics visualization technology and a multi-modal transport model combining cold chain land transport and air freight has improved the efficiency of fruit distribution from Shaanxi [1] - The company aims to expand its market share in fresh logistics by leveraging scenario-based logistics services and reusing cold chain capabilities [1] International Market Expansion - SF Holding is continuously enhancing its international logistics network, expanding air routes to strengthen cross-border service capabilities [2] - The fleet of SF Airlines has reached 90 all-cargo aircraft, covering domestic, Asian, European, and American markets [2] - The company is committed to providing high-quality air logistics services to global customers, contributing to the dual circulation development pattern in China [2] ESG Performance - SF Holding achieved a significant milestone with MSCI upgrading its ESG rating from "BBB" to "A," making it the first logistics company in China to receive this rating [2] - This recognition reflects the company's outstanding performance in environmental, social, and governance aspects, enhancing its brand credibility and reducing long-term operational risks [2] - Strong ESG performance is expected to support SF Holding's overseas business expansion and capital market performance, creating a positive cycle for the company's long-term investment value [2]