Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the Chinese government's commitment to ensuring food security and promoting the poultry industry, particularly the white feather broiler sector, as part of its rural reform and revitalization efforts [1] Group 1: Government Policies - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the importance of ensuring national food security [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with other departments, has issued the "Food and Nutrition Development Outline (2025-2030)," focusing on optimizing the production and sales structure of poultry meat and expanding poultry consumption [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture has developed the "Feed Conservation Action Implementation Plan," aiming to reduce the average feed consumption per kilogram of animal products by over 0.2 kg (a reduction of more than 7%) by 2030 compared to 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The white feather broiler industry is recognized for its advantages in resource conservation (feed, land, water), low carbon emissions, short production cycles, and quick returns, making it a key area for national development [1] - According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, the renewal rate of grandparent white feather broiler chickens from January to October this year has decreased by 15% year-on-year, which will impact the supply of parent stock chicks in 7 months and market-ready chicks in 14 months [1] - The company has increased the import volume of grandparent broiler chickens to ensure future market supply of white feather broiler chicks in China [1] - Due to tight supply, the prices of parent stock chicks have been rising monthly since August this year [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Core Viewpoint - The update on the supply of grandparent white feather broilers in China is pending from the China Animal Husbandry Association, with a significant decline in imports observed, which may impact future supply and pricing of commercial broiler chicks [1] Industry Summary - As of November, the import volume of grandparent white feather broilers in China is approximately 526,700 sets, representing a year-on-year decrease of over 20% [1] - The reduction in the import volume is expected to affect the supply of commercial broiler chicks 14 months later, indicating potential tightness in the supply of quality commercial broiler chicks by 2026 [1] - The anticipated tight supply of quality commercial broiler chicks is expected to provide strong support for chick prices [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 2025年11月份祖代更新量为19.7万套，环比下降3.9%，同比增长18.67%；1-11月份祖代更新量为133.12 万套，同比下降9.61%。 1、下半年祖代更新量持续增加 据博亚和讯了解，2025年祖代更新主要为国内自繁和国外进口；2025年上半年祖代更新量为50.11万 套，同比下降37.01%。下半年祖代更新量震荡增长，7-9月份更新量41.81万套，10月份祖代更新量为 20.5万套；11月份19.7万套，环比下降3.9%，同比增长18.67%，其中AA+占比23.86%、利丰占比 27.41%，科宝占比18.78%，SZ901占比12.18%，广明2号占比17.77%。 图：2021-2025年祖代鸡更新量 2025年1-11月份祖代更新量为133.12万套，同比下降9.61%。祖代更新量渠道：法国以及国内自繁。 2025年1-11月祖代更新品种为AA+、Ross、Cobb、利丰、SZ901、WOD188和广明2号。从品种更新量 看，Cobb为36.15万套、AA+为20.52万套、Ross为6.73万套、利丰为25.6万套、SZ901为22.7万套、 WO ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 1.46% on November 28, with Minhe Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed various performance, with Minhe Holdings closing at 9.55, up 3.92%, and Muyuan Foods at 50.75, up 1.70% [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 17.296 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 32.197 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods had a significant net inflow of 66.859 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow of 73.698 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other stocks such as Zhengbang Technology and Minhe Holdings experienced mixed fund flows, with Zhengbang Technology seeing a net inflow of 26.499 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) rising, and key stocks such as Jinxinnong (002548) and Yisheng (002458) showing significant gains [1] - Major pig farming companies are expanding into Southeast Asia, indicating a trend of overseas expansion among leading enterprises like Muyuan, New Hope, and Haida [1] - The market is at a critical point of capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with potential improvements in supply-demand relationships expected by mid-2026 if capacity reduction targets are met [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with companies like Muyuan (002714) and Wens (300498) being the most significant contributors [3] - The overall capital expenditure of listed pig farming companies is stabilizing and slightly decreasing, as many firms are halting capacity expansion projects due to narrowing profits and cash flow pressures [2] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in feed, pharmaceuticals, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The successful approval of the "Yisheng 817 broiler chicken" as a national poultry variety marks a significant milestone in China's poultry breeding history, indicating a transition from breeding technology to a nationally recognized variety [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "Yisheng 817 broiler chicken" was developed to address the shortage of specialized breeds for traditional chicken dishes like "pa chicken" and "roast chicken" [3]. - The breeding model of the 817 chicken integrates existing commercial breed resources, resulting in a breed that is efficient in growth, adaptable, and cost-effective, thus paving a unique development path for China's poultry industry [3][4]. - The 817 chicken has become one of the three main types in China's poultry industry, with an expected output of 2.47 billion birds in 2024, accounting for 17.2% of the national broiler output, and approximately 40% of this production will come from Shandong Province [4]. Group 2: Breeding and Market Impact - The breeding model of the 817 chicken involves a hybridization of fast-growing white feather broiler roosters and high-yield brown-shelled egg layers, which allows for the integration of advanced global breeding results [4]. - The "Yisheng 817 small white feather broiler chicken" has been well-received in the market, with 400,000 sets promoted within a few months [4]. - The breed is characterized by low cost, fast growth, and high-quality meat, making it suitable for both traditional Chinese and Western-style chicken products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]