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农产品研究跟踪系列报告(183):生猪行业反内卷有序推进,看好海内外牧业大周期反转
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-23 14:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].
益生股份跌2.02%,成交额4129.27万元,主力资金净流入7.23万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 03:04
Core Viewpoint - Yisheng Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the poultry farming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of November 21, Yisheng's stock price is 8.73 CNY per share, down 2.02% during the trading session, with a market capitalization of 9.659 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Yisheng's stock has decreased by 5.78%, with a 4.49% drop over the last five trading days and a 1.36% decline over the past 20 days [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Yisheng reported operating revenue of 2.036 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.7869 million CNY, down 89.42% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Yisheng has 42,200 shareholders, a decrease of 12.13% from the previous period, with an average of 17,754 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 13.80% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.692 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 602 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Ownership Structure - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Zhongxin Livestock Breeding ETF holds 14.8357 million shares, an increase of 5.3849 million shares from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is a new entrant holding 7.1349 million shares [3]. Business Overview - Yisheng Co., Ltd. specializes in the breeding and sales of various poultry and livestock, with its main revenue sources being chicken (76.18%), pigs (15.47%), livestock equipment (5.48%), dairy products (1.72%), and other income (1.14%) [1].
农林牧渔行业周报(20251110-20251114):猪价持续弱势,去化逻辑或逐步加强-20251120
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-11-20 09:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]
益生股份:目前公司引种未受到禽流感影响
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-17 11:48
Group 1 - The company, Yisheng Co., reported that it introduced 18,000 sets in October and 34,000 sets in November, indicating a strong growth in its operations [2] - The introduction of new sets has not been affected by the avian influenza, suggesting resilience in the company's supply chain and operational capacity [2]
益生股份:目前公司引种未受法国禽流感的影响
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-17 03:50
益生股份(002458.SZ)11月17日在投资者互动平台表示,公司11月引种3.4万套,12月引种计划还在商 谈中,目前公司引种未受法国禽流感的影响。 每经AI快讯,有投资者在投资者互动平台提问:贵公司预计11月和12月引种多少?是否受法国禽流感 疫情影响? (记者 王瀚黎) ...
农林牧渔行业点评报告:需求渐入旺季肉鸡价格有支撑,蛋价下行蛋鸡淘汰或加速
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-17 03:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]
益生股份:关于控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 12:44
证券日报网讯 11月14日晚间,益生股份发布公告称,公司近日接到控股股东、实际控制人曹积生先生 通知,获悉其所持有公司的部分股份办理了质押延期购回业务。本次股份质押延期购回数量为5,200, 000股,占其所持股份比例1.15%,占公司总股本比例0.47%。质权人为国泰海通证券股份有限公司,质 押用途为融资。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...
益生股份(002458) - 关于控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的公告
2025-11-14 09:30
关于控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的公告 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")近日接到控 股股东、实际控制人曹积生先生通知,获悉其所持有公司的部分股份 办理了质押延期购回业务,具体事项如下: 证券代码:002458 证券简称:益生股份 公告编号:2025-097 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整, 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 注:上述限售股均不包含高管锁定股。 二、其他说明 一、控股股东部分股份质押延期购回的基本情况 注:2025年4月"国泰君安证券股份有限公司"公司名称变更为"国泰海通证券股份有 限公司"。 2、控股股东股份累计质押情况 截至公告披露日,控股股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如 下: 股东 名称 是否为控股 股东或第一 大股东及其 一致行动人 延期购回 数量 (股) 占其所 持股份 比例 占公司 总股本 比例 是否为 限售股 质押 起始日 原质押 到期日 现质押 到期日 质权人 质押 用途 曹积生 是 5,200,000 1.15% 0.47% 否 2024 年 11 月 14 日 2 ...
益生股份(002458) - 2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告
2025-11-12 10:15
股东会决议公告 证券代码:002458 证券简称:益生股份 公告编号:2025-096 山东益生种畜禽股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整, 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1、本次股东会未出现否决提案的情形。 2、本次股东会未涉及变更以往股东会已通过的决议。 一、会议召开和出席情况: (一)会议召开情况 1、会议召开时间: 现场会议时间:2025 年 11 月 12 日 14:30。 网络投票时间: (1)通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的时间为:2025 年 11 月 12 日 09:15—09:25、09:30-11:30,13:00-15:00; (2)通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统进行网络投票的时间为:2025 年 11 月 12 日 09:15-15:00 期间的任意时间。 2、现场会议召开地点:山东省烟台市福山区益生路 1 号,山东益生种畜禽股份 有限公司会议室。 3、会议召开方式:现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式。 4、会议召集人:董事会。 股东会决议公告 5、会议主持人:董事长曹积生先生。 本次股 ...
行业投资策略:生猪开启去化周期,肉牛延续景气上行
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-12 10:13
Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a favorable configuration opportunity due to accelerated breeding stock reduction driven by market and policy resonance, with current prices at a relatively low level [18][43]. - The beef industry is in a cyclical uptrend, with demand increasing and supply constraints expected to continue until 2027, making it a favorable time to invest in beef-related companies [18][51]. - The poultry sector is seeing improved investment logic as it enters a demand peak season, despite challenges from disease outbreaks and production capacity reductions [19][4]. Pig Farming - The supply pressure in pig farming is gradually increasing, leading to continued downward pressure on prices, with the national average price at 11.87 yuan/kg as of November 11, 2025, down 4.85 yuan/kg year-on-year [20][23]. - Policy measures are focused on reducing breeding stock, particularly among large enterprises, while smaller farms are expected to reduce stock due to losses and disease impacts [29][41]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector, with recommended companies including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [18][43]. Beef Industry - The beef supply is tightening, with a decrease in stock levels and an expected cyclical uptrend in demand, particularly as domestic beef consumption continues to rise [46][51]. - The average beef price in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [51]. - Recommended companies in the beef sector include Bright Dairy, Fucheng Co., and several Hong Kong-listed firms such as Modern Farming and China Shengmu [18][51]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is entering a peak demand season, with prices expected to rise due to reduced production capacity and increased demand [19][4]. - The supply of white feather chicken breeding stock is projected to decline, supporting a price increase for meat chickens in 2026 [19][4]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Shennong Development and Hefeng Co. [19][4]. Seed Industry - The grain price cycle is at a low point, with expectations for upward trends supported by food security policies and the acceleration of genetically modified seed commercialization [19][5]. - Recommended companies in the seed industry include Dabeinong Technology, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [19][5]. Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong growth in the sector [19][7]. - Domestic pet consumption is expected to continue growing, driven by emotional value and increasing market share of domestic brands [19][7]. - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [19][7].