1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].

| 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份到目 | 景内 | | | 請參閱 拉 * 註 | 有投票權股 (日 / 月 / 年) | | | | | | | | 17 二次元 | | | | | | | | 96 | | CS20251125E00191 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. 1201(L) | | 1,593,302(L | HKD 59.1323 | 30.877.936(L | 6.91(L)20/11/2025 | | | | | | | 16,006,998(S) | 3.58(S) | | | | | | | 4,782,992(P) | 1.07(P) | 减持后，JPMorgan Chase & Co.最新持好仓数目为30,877,936股，持好仓比例由7.27%下降至6.91%。 | 股份代號: | 01772 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 11.166 billion HKD on November 25, with notable purchases including Alibaba-W (5.616 billion HKD), Kuaishou-W (571 million HKD), and Ganfeng Lithium (246 million HKD) [1] - Southbound capital has continuously net bought Alibaba for 9 days, totaling 23.003 billion HKD, and Kuaishou for 3 days, totaling 1.98355 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Citic Securities believes that the profitability of electric vehicle companies is still limited, and the Chinese EV industry is entering a critical phase of consolidation, where profitability will be the core competitive indicator [3] - Kuaishou repurchased 2 million shares at a price range of 45.100 to 46.650 HKD, with a total repurchase amount of 91.8768 million HKD, and the stock closed at 46.350 HKD, up 4.51% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium expressed optimism about long-term lithium demand despite recent price volatility, expecting lithium carbonate prices to gradually return to reasonable levels, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics next year [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan reduced its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) by 1,593,302 shares at a price of HKD 59.1323 per share, totaling approximately HKD 94.2156 million [1] - After the reduction, JPMorgan's latest holding is approximately 30,877,900 shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.91% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，11月20日，小摩减持赣锋锂业(01772)159.3302万股，每 股作价59.1323港元，总金额约为9421.56万港元。减持后最新持股数目约为3087.79万股，最新持股比例 为6.91%。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's short position in Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares has decreased from 4.45% to 3.86% as of November 19 [1]

Market Overview - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly increased, leading to a rise in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index briefly surpassing 26,000 points. The index closed up 0.69% at 25,894.55 points, with a total turnover of HKD 231.49 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.2%, indicating a positive sentiment in the technology sector [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a notable increase of 4.35%, closing at HKD 40.34, contributing 47.94 points to the Hang Seng Index. Founder Lei Jun invested over HKD 100 million to purchase 2.6 million shares, raising his stake to 23.26% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks like Baidu Group-SW (09888) and Alibaba Health (00241) also performed well, with increases of 4.56% and 4.36% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks experienced gains, with Baidu and Xiaomi both rising over 4%. AI applications and computing power sectors were particularly active, with Bilibili rising over 5% [3] - Lithium stocks saw a surge, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) increasing by 4.81% and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rising by 3.46%. The chairman of Tianqi Lithium indicated that global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons by 2026, achieving a balance between supply and demand [4] - Gold stocks generally rose, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 4.86% and Zijin Mining (02899) up 1.78%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 81% [5] Flight Cancellations Impact - There has been a significant increase in flight cancellations from China to Japan, with a 56% rise compared to the previous month. This has led to a decrease in ticket bookings by approximately 29% [6] Notable Stock Movements - Longpan Technology (02465) surged by 22.89% after announcing a sales agreement worth over HKD 45 billion for lithium iron phosphate materials [7] - Hesai Technology (02525) rose by 13.43% following the launch of a new high-performance smart control chip [7] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) increased by 12.74%, driven by advancements in AI computing power [9] - Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719) saw a rise of 7.24% due to increased demand for flu medications during the flu season [10]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge in the afternoon, with Tianqi Lithium Industries rising by 4.11% and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 3.21, driven by strong demand in renewable energy and electric vehicles [1] Industry Summary - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium, Jiang Anqi, stated that the demand for lithium materials is continuously increasing due to the rapid growth of electric commercial vehicles and energy storage applications. By 2026, global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicted a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons. This indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a significant rise, with Tianqi Lithium Industries up 4.11% and Ganfeng Lithium up 3.21%, driven by increasing demand for lithium materials in renewable energy and electric vehicles [1] Industry Summary - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium, Jiang Anqi, stated that the demand for lithium materials is expected to continue rising due to the rapid growth in renewable energy integration and electrification of commercial heavy-duty vehicles [1] - Global lithium demand is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [1] - The improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium industry is expected to eliminate homogeneous competition, providing greater development opportunities for companies [1] Company Summary - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicted a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30%, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not balance, leading to a possible price increase of lithium carbonate to 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium sector is experiencing a rebound after hitting a low, with notable increases in stock prices for several companies [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Tibet Mining has seen its stock price rise by over 4% [2] - Tianqi Lithium, Yongshan Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials have also experienced stock price increases in tandem with Tibet Mining [2]