Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% on December 12, with 21 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 1.50% and 1.46% respectively [1] - The trading day saw a net outflow of 4.872 billion yuan from the main funds across the two markets, with 14 sectors receiving net inflows [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector had a notable increase of 1.50%, with a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan, and 106 out of 138 stocks in this sector rose, including 3 stocks that hit the daily limit [2] - The power equipment sector led the net inflow with 2.805 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment sector with a net inflow of 1.771 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant individual stock performances, with the top net inflow stock being Antai Technology, which received 859 million yuan, followed by Zhongzhou Special Materials and Xingye Silver Tin with inflows of 542 million yuan and 209 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, the electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 3.703 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 2.501 billion yuan [1] Top Gainers in Non-Ferrous Metals - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector included: - Antai Technology: +9.98% with a turnover rate of 15.69% and a main fund flow of 858.70 million yuan - Zhongzhou Special Materials: +20.01% with a turnover rate of 28.24% and a main fund flow of 541.53 million yuan - Xingye Silver Tin: +3.25% with a turnover rate of 3.30% and a main fund flow of 209.37 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector also had notable outflows, with: - Tianqi Lithium: -2.75% with a main fund outflow of 461 million yuan - Huayou Cobalt: +0.02% with a main fund outflow of 418.59 million yuan - Ganfeng Lithium: -2.68% with a main fund outflow of 412.56 million yuan [3]

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 行 业 美联储 12 月如期降息 25 基点，持续关注后续降息节奏 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2025年12月11日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨4.79%，跑赢 沪深300指数3.97个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2025年12月 11日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，工业金属板块上涨5.97%，小金属板块 上涨5.55%，能源金属板块上涨3.72%，金属新材料板块上涨3.54%，贵金属板 块上涨0.19%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 申万有色金属行业指数走势 工业金属。宏观层面，当地时间12月11日，美联储 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.97%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.74% [2] - Over 2,500 stocks in the two markets saw gains, with a total trading volume reaching approximately 2.09 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was notably strong, with stocks like Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) rising by 7.8%, and other companies such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ), Western Gold (601069.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also experiencing increases [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11, 2025, cumulatively lowering rates by 75 basis points, has boosted precious metal prices, alongside heightened expectations for future rate cuts and rising inflation [2] Group 3: Electric Grid Equipment Sector - Electric grid equipment stocks also performed well, with Tongguang Cable (300265.SZ) and Zhongneng Electric (300062.SZ) both rising by 20%, while companies like Xinte Electric (301120.SZ), Jiusheng Electric (301082.SZ), and China Western Power (601179.SH) saw significant gains [2] - The global energy transition and AI computing power growth are driving the evolution of electric grid systems towards smarter and more resilient designs, creating historic opportunities for domestic power equipment leaders with technological advantages and export capabilities [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with stocks such as Superjet Co. (301005.SZ) rising by 20%, Srey New Materials (688102.SH) by 17.58%, and Aerospace Power (600343.SH) by 10% [3] - A successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket on December 12, 2025, which placed 16 low-orbit satellite internet satellites into orbit, highlights the growth potential of China's commercial aerospace industry, projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [3] Group 5: Computing Hardware Sector - The computing hardware sector showed repeated activity, with stocks like Lian Te Technology (301205.SZ) increasing by 15.87%, and others such as Changxin Bochuang (300548.SZ), Dongtianwei (301183.SZ), and Tengjing Technology (688195.SH) also performing well [4] - According to TrendForce, the global market for optical transceiver modules over 800G is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 24 million units by 2025 and nearly 63 million by 2026, indicating a growth rate of 2.6 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant inflow of capital, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) seeing a net inflow of over 150,000 yuan and a cumulative net subscription exceeding 200 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened strong, rising by 0.26% and briefly exceeding 1% during the morning session [1]. - The performance of the underlying index components is mixed, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rising over 2%, while companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium fell over 3% [2][3]. - The ETF has shown a consistent trend of capital inflow, with a net subscription of 100,000 units during the session, reflecting ongoing investor confidence [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly silver and copper, has seen significant price increases, with copper prices up 35% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [5]. - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to continue supporting the prices of precious metals [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the weakening of the US dollar and ongoing supply constraints [6][7]. - The anticipated increase in demand for industrial metals, driven by new growth areas, is expected to enhance price elasticity [6]. - The copper market is projected to face supply constraints, with a slight increase in global copper production expected but limited by high disturbance rates [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold, and a significant portion of its index comprising these metals [10][12]. - The ETF's index has a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal supercycle [12]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [14].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Weilan New Energy") has initiated its A-share IPO and submitted a counseling record, aiming to list on the ChiNext board, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution. This listing is expected to have a positive impact on the solid-state battery industry chain, providing a model for capital operations and attracting more investment into the solid-state battery sector, thereby promoting technological research and mass production [1] Company Summary - Weilan New Energy is a leading enterprise in the solid-state battery field in China [1] - The company has strategic partnerships with several listed companies, enhancing its market position and collaborative potential [1] Industry Summary - The IPO of Weilan New Energy is anticipated to benefit the solid-state battery industry chain, particularly for shareholders and partners involved [1] - Multiple listed companies have established strategic collaborations or supply agreements with Weilan New Energy, indicating a robust network within the industry [1] - Notable partnerships include Tianqi Lithium, which holds a 3% stake in Weilan New Energy, and other companies like Aosheng Technology, Prit, Huayou Cobalt, Rongbai Technology, and Xingyuan Environment, all of which have signed strategic cooperation agreements with Weilan New Energy [1]

Core Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged past 170,000 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 240% from the year's low of 47,000 yuan/ton in July [1][7]. Group 1: Price Surge and Market Dynamics - The recent price recovery is driven by a strong resonance between explosive demand and supply contraction [3][10]. - The industry has undergone significant consolidation, with many small producers exiting or ceasing operations, leading to a higher concentration of market power among leading companies [3][10]. - Major companies are currently operating at full capacity, with firms like Tianji Co. and Tinci Materials confirming that their production lines for lithium hexafluorophosphate are fully booked [3][10]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand surge is attributed to the end-of-year push in the electric vehicle sector and concentrated installations in energy storage projects [3][10]. - Downstream battery manufacturers are securing long-term contracts to ensure supply, which is further straining current market availability and driving up spot prices [3][10]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Industry experts believe that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate still has room to rise due to the dual pressures of high lithium carbonate costs and tight supply [4][10]. Group 4: Industry Structure and Key Players - The lithium battery materials sector is characterized by a dominance of leading companies, with smaller capacities being phased out [5][11]. - Ganfeng Lithium leads with a planned capacity of 260,000 tons/year LCE by 2025, utilizing a diversified technology route [6][11]. - Tianqi Lithium focuses on spodumene, with a capacity of 146,600 tons/year, while Salt Lake Industry specializes in lithium extraction from salt lakes, planning to increase its capacity from 40,000 tons/year to 60,000 tons/year by 2026 [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a volatile pullback on December 11, but the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant inflow of funds, indicating strong investor interest in the nonferrous metals sector amid favorable overseas liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:26 AM, the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose over 1.11%, with an intraday peak approaching 2%, and recorded a net subscription of 23 million shares, resulting in a net inflow of over 35 million yuan [1]. - The latest fund size of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) exceeded 3.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Most component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced gains, with Zijin Mining rising by 2.83% and Zhongjin Gold by 2.34%, while Northern Rare Earth and China Aluminum saw slight declines [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with varying performance metrics [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [4]. - The Fed plans to expand its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, which is expected to support liquidity in the market [4]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Long-term projections suggest that the copper price may strengthen due to the ongoing U.S. rate-cutting cycle, supply-side constraints, and new demand drivers from the energy sector [8]. - Supply-side issues, including frequent mining accidents and production interruptions in major copper mines, are expected to tighten the copper market, leading to a projected supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 5: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow due to significant investments in renewable energy and the development of new power systems, with a focus on enhancing grid and storage capabilities [10]. - The push for technological advancements, particularly in AI, is expected to drive substantial increases in electricity demand, further boosting copper consumption [10]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in nonferrous metals, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold [11][13]. - The ETF's index has a leading copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the nonferrous sector [13][15].

Group 1 - Lithium battery stocks mostly rose, with Ganfeng Lithium up 4.51% at HKD 53.2, Tianqi Lithium up 4.14% at HKD 49.86, and CATL up 3.43% at HKD 515.5 [1] - Dejia Energy announced a 15% price increase for its battery products starting December 16 due to rising raw material costs [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) is in discussions with clients regarding price increases, with some products already seeing price hikes [1] Group 2 - According to CICC's previous report, a bottom reversal trend in lithium batteries is expected to emerge from 2025 as industry prices stabilize and supply-demand structures improve [2] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates a new upward cycle in lithium batteries, with energy storage expected to be a key driver [2] - A new round of lithium battery technology cycle, centered around solid-state batteries, is accelerating towards an industrialization inflection point [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a collective surge in stock prices, driven by rising production costs and anticipated price increases for battery products due to higher raw material prices [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hong Kong lithium battery stocks have collectively risen, with Tianqi Lithium up over 4%, CATL and Ganfeng Lithium up over 3%, and Hongqiao Group and Zhongchu Innovation up over 1% [1][5]. Group 2: Price Increases and Market Outlook - Domestic lithium battery manufacturer Dejia Energy announced a 15% price increase for its battery products effective December 16 due to rising production costs from upstream raw material price hikes [3][7]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) is also in discussions with clients regarding price increases, with some products already seeing price hikes [3][7]. - Huatai Securities forecasts a month-on-month increase in lithium battery production in December, indicating a positive market outlook with rising capacity utilization rates [3][7]. - CICC's report suggests a new upward cycle for lithium batteries starting in 2026, with energy storage expected to be a key driver [3][7].

Core Insights - The energy metals sector increased by 1.26% on December 10, with Shengxin Lithium leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Energy Metals Sector Performance - Shengxin Lithium (002240) closed at 32.33, up 5.97%, with a trading volume of 766,800 shares and a transaction value of 2.453 billion [1] - Other notable performers include: - Zangge Mining (000408) at 70.01, up 2.96%, with a transaction value of 1.015 billion [1] - BQ New Materials (605376) at 55.11, up 2.15%, with a transaction value of 574 million [1] - Yongxing Materials (002756) at 46.51, up 1.57%, with a transaction value of 664 million [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) at 63.33, up 1.33%, with a transaction value of 3.694 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 456 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 688 million [2] - Speculative funds contributed a net inflow of 232 million [2]