Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Market in China - **Key Drivers**: Strong demand for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) both in China and globally is driving the lithium market dynamics Price Forecasts - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Average spot prices for lithium carbonate (including VAT) are raised by 35%/122%/100% to Rmb135k/200k/180k per ton for 2026/27/28, respectively, which is 56%/79%/52% above consensus estimates [1][7] - **Market Transition**: The lithium market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a deficit during 2026-28 [1][7] Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Growth**: Global lithium demand forecast is increased by 10% up to 2030, driven by BESS demand [1][7] - **Supply Adjustments**: Global lithium supply forecast is raised by 5% up to 2028, reflecting higher price expectations [1][7] - **Short-term Balance**: Monthly lithium supply and demand in China are expected to be balanced in early 2026, with a shift to a monthly deficit from March 2026 due to demand growth outpacing supply [2][7] Company-Specific Insights Tianqi Lithium - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for 2026/27/28 are raised by 90%/325%/269% due to higher lithium price expectations [17][28] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb54.72 to Rmb84.22, maintaining a Buy rating [17][28] Ganfeng Lithium - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for Ganfeng-A are raised by 56%/328%/256% for 2026/27/28 [28][40] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb49.62 to Rmb72.41, maintaining a Buy rating [28][40] - **Ganfeng-H**: Price target raised from HK$32.75 to HK$63.26, upgraded from Neutral to Buy [40][47] Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for 2026/27/28 are raised by 32%/55%/41% [51] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb23.40 to Rmb30.11, maintaining a Buy rating [51] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Estimates**: Overall earnings estimates for China's lithium companies are raised by 32-328% for 2026-28, now 39-474% above consensus [3][7] - **EPS Changes**: Significant increases in EPS for Tianqi, Ganfeng-A, Ganfeng-H, and QSLI due to higher price forecasts [3][28][51] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential conflicts of interest noted due to UBS's business relationships with covered companies [5] - **Price Sensitivity**: Current share prices are skewed to the upside, indicating potential for further growth based on market dynamics [24][37][47] Conclusion - The lithium market in China is poised for significant growth driven by BESS demand, with substantial upward revisions in price targets and earnings forecasts for key players in the industry. The transition from surplus to deficit in the lithium market is a critical factor influencing these projections.

证券日报网讯12月15日，天齐锂业（002466）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月10 日，公司A股股东户数为307706户。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月15日，天齐锂业（002466）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司的生产经营安 排需综合考虑市场需求、库存结构、客户订单、资源禀赋及公司长期发展等多方面因素。公司始终坚持 以市场化原则开展经营活动，相关生产、销售和库存策略均会在充分评估行业环境和公司实际情况的基 础上审慎制定。公司将持续关注市场供需变化，保持经营稳健，为股东创造长期价值。 ...

Group 1: Price Trends in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that starting in 2026, processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, and negotiations are ongoing with others, suggesting that price hikes are becoming a prevailing trend [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulative power battery installations from January to November reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries making up 81.2% of this total [2] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Predictions indicate a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons [3] - If demand growth exceeds 30%, prices may rise significantly, potentially surpassing 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - Citic Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources for companies to navigate market cycles effectively [4] - The report highlights that companies with high resource self-sufficiency can ensure stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The lithium industry's supply-demand dynamics are improving, with expectations for better performance in equity markets as the sector approaches its bottom [4] Group 5: Company Developments in Lithium Sector - Tianqi Lithium (002466) is expanding its metal lithium production capacity, with 600 tons currently and an additional 1,000 tons under construction, ranking second globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and established stable supply partnerships with leading companies, ensuring delivery amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL (300750) is a leader in solid-state battery technology, with significant advancements in energy density and production capabilities, contributing substantial revenue in the upcoming year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% on December 12, with 21 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 1.50% and 1.46% respectively [1] - The trading day saw a net outflow of 4.872 billion yuan from the main funds across the two markets, with 14 sectors receiving net inflows [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector had a notable increase of 1.50%, with a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan, and 106 out of 138 stocks in this sector rose, including 3 stocks that hit the daily limit [2] - The power equipment sector led the net inflow with 2.805 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment sector with a net inflow of 1.771 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant individual stock performances, with the top net inflow stock being Antai Technology, which received 859 million yuan, followed by Zhongzhou Special Materials and Xingye Silver Tin with inflows of 542 million yuan and 209 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, the electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 3.703 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 2.501 billion yuan [1] Top Gainers in Non-Ferrous Metals - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector included: - Antai Technology: +9.98% with a turnover rate of 15.69% and a main fund flow of 858.70 million yuan - Zhongzhou Special Materials: +20.01% with a turnover rate of 28.24% and a main fund flow of 541.53 million yuan - Xingye Silver Tin: +3.25% with a turnover rate of 3.30% and a main fund flow of 209.37 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector also had notable outflows, with: - Tianqi Lithium: -2.75% with a main fund outflow of 461 million yuan - Huayou Cobalt: +0.02% with a main fund outflow of 418.59 million yuan - Ganfeng Lithium: -2.68% with a main fund outflow of 412.56 million yuan [3]

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 行 业 美联储 12 月如期降息 25 基点，持续关注后续降息节奏 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2025年12月11日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨4.79%，跑赢 沪深300指数3.97个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2025年12月 11日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，工业金属板块上涨5.97%，小金属板块 上涨5.55%，能源金属板块上涨3.72%，金属新材料板块上涨3.54%，贵金属板 块上涨0.19%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 申万有色金属行业指数走势 工业金属。宏观层面，当地时间12月11日，美联储 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.97%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.74% [2] - Over 2,500 stocks in the two markets saw gains, with a total trading volume reaching approximately 2.09 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was notably strong, with stocks like Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) rising by 7.8%, and other companies such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ), Western Gold (601069.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also experiencing increases [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11, 2025, cumulatively lowering rates by 75 basis points, has boosted precious metal prices, alongside heightened expectations for future rate cuts and rising inflation [2] Group 3: Electric Grid Equipment Sector - Electric grid equipment stocks also performed well, with Tongguang Cable (300265.SZ) and Zhongneng Electric (300062.SZ) both rising by 20%, while companies like Xinte Electric (301120.SZ), Jiusheng Electric (301082.SZ), and China Western Power (601179.SH) saw significant gains [2] - The global energy transition and AI computing power growth are driving the evolution of electric grid systems towards smarter and more resilient designs, creating historic opportunities for domestic power equipment leaders with technological advantages and export capabilities [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with stocks such as Superjet Co. (301005.SZ) rising by 20%, Srey New Materials (688102.SH) by 17.58%, and Aerospace Power (600343.SH) by 10% [3] - A successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket on December 12, 2025, which placed 16 low-orbit satellite internet satellites into orbit, highlights the growth potential of China's commercial aerospace industry, projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [3] Group 5: Computing Hardware Sector - The computing hardware sector showed repeated activity, with stocks like Lian Te Technology (301205.SZ) increasing by 15.87%, and others such as Changxin Bochuang (300548.SZ), Dongtianwei (301183.SZ), and Tengjing Technology (688195.SH) also performing well [4] - According to TrendForce, the global market for optical transceiver modules over 800G is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 24 million units by 2025 and nearly 63 million by 2026, indicating a growth rate of 2.6 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant inflow of capital, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) seeing a net inflow of over 150,000 yuan and a cumulative net subscription exceeding 200 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened strong, rising by 0.26% and briefly exceeding 1% during the morning session [1]. - The performance of the underlying index components is mixed, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rising over 2%, while companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium fell over 3% [2][3]. - The ETF has shown a consistent trend of capital inflow, with a net subscription of 100,000 units during the session, reflecting ongoing investor confidence [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly silver and copper, has seen significant price increases, with copper prices up 35% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [5]. - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to continue supporting the prices of precious metals [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the weakening of the US dollar and ongoing supply constraints [6][7]. - The anticipated increase in demand for industrial metals, driven by new growth areas, is expected to enhance price elasticity [6]. - The copper market is projected to face supply constraints, with a slight increase in global copper production expected but limited by high disturbance rates [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold, and a significant portion of its index comprising these metals [10][12]. - The ETF's index has a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal supercycle [12]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [14].