Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals industry, with a particular emphasis on the outlook for 2025, titled "Seeing the Light Through the Clouds" [1] - Positive fiscal and monetary policies in both domestic and international markets are expected to gradually boost demand for non-ferrous metals, especially given low inventory levels in downstream sectors [1][2] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade are likely to continue suppressing global supply, which may lead to an upward trend in metal prices by 2025 [2] Key Insights on the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The recommendation is to focus on gold, aluminum, and copper sectors, as well as companies with strong growth potential [2] - The U.S. election results are seen as a catalyst for economic stimulus, which will benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The potential for structural supply shortages due to geopolitical tensions and domestic policies is highlighted, with a call for increased domestic production and international expansion [4] Company Focus: Tianshan Aluminum - Tianshan Aluminum is recommended due to its comprehensive supply chain and high self-sufficiency in raw materials, with nearly 100% self-sufficiency in key areas [6][7] - The company has a strong cost structure, with its production facilities located in cost-advantaged regions, ensuring stable profitability despite raw material price fluctuations [7][8] - Tianshan's growth strategy includes expanding its production capacity and exploring international markets, particularly in Indonesia and Guinea [16][17] Financial Performance and Projections - Tianshan Aluminum's projected production for 2025 includes approximately 1.2 million tons of primary aluminum and 2.5 million tons of alumina, with expected revenues of around 4.3 billion [30] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, which is attractive to investors [8] - The anticipated increase in production capacity and favorable market conditions are expected to enhance the company's profitability and valuation [30] Market Dynamics - The real estate sector's recovery is crucial for the non-ferrous metals industry, as it accounts for about 30% of demand [20] - Recent trends indicate a decrease in inventory levels and an increase in utilization rates, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [20][21] - The government's focus on new industries, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, is expected to drive aluminum demand significantly by 2030 [21] Risks and Considerations - The potential for increased tariffs under a new U.S. administration could impact the aluminum market, although the overall effect may be limited [22] - Supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning alumina and bauxite, are highlighted, with Guinea's political stability being a key concern [26][27] - The overall supply-demand balance in the global aluminum market is expected to tighten over the next few years, supporting higher prices [24] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals industry, particularly Tianshan Aluminum, presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong fundamentals, cost advantages, and growth potential in a recovering market [30] - Continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments and market dynamics will be essential for assessing future risks and opportunities [31]

天山铝业集团股份有限公司 简式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称：天山铝业集团股份有限公司 股票上市地点：深圳证券交易所 股票简称：天山铝业 股票代码：002532 信息披露义务人：华融致诚柒号(深圳)投资合伙企业(有限合伙) 住所/通讯地址：深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道金融街1号弘毅大厦写字楼23A 股份变动性质：股份减少（降至5%以下） 签署日期：2024年11月1日 信息披露义务人声明 一、本报告书系依据《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司收购管理办法》 《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第15号——权益变动报告书》 及相关法律、法规和规范性文件编写。 二、依据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》和《上市 公司收购管理办法》的规定，本报告书已全面披露信息披露义务人在天山铝业 集团股份有限公司中拥有权益的变动情况。 1 | | 信息披露义务人声明 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一节 | 释义 | 3 | | 第二节 | 信息披露义务人介绍 | 4 | | 第三节 | 权益变动目的 | 6 | | 第四节 | 权益变动方式 | 7 | | 第五节 | 前6个月买卖上市 ...

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-069 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东股份减持计划实施完成暨权益变动公 告 信息披露义务人华融致诚柒号（深圳）投资合伙企业（有限合伙）保证向 本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大 遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 （二）股东本次减持前后持股情况 特别提示： 1、本次权益变动后，信息披露义务人华融致诚柒号(深圳)投资合伙企业(有 限合伙)（以下简称"华融致诚柒号"）持有天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"或"本公司"）股份 232,594,216 股，占公司总股本 4.9999988%，持股比 例下降至 5%以下，不再是公司持股 5%以上股东。 2、本次权益变动属于股份减持，不触及要约收购，不会导致公司控股股东、 实际控制人发生变化。 2024 年 10 月 9 日，公司于巨潮资讯网披露了《关于持股 5%以上股东股份 减持计划的预披露公告》，华融致诚柒号计划在 2024 年 10 月 31 日至 2025 年 1 月 30 日期间以集中竞价交易方式减 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - The company's profit significantly increased due to the rise in prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average selling prices for self-produced aluminum ingots and alumina rising approximately 6% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [1][3] - The company is advancing key projects, including the large-scale mining of bauxite in Guinea, which is expected to enhance raw material self-sufficiency for alumina production [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.010 billion yuan, an increase of 63.48% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%, and a net profit of 3.084 billion yuan, up 88.36% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 920 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 30% [1] Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the average price of A00 aluminum was 19,565 yuan per ton, up 3.76% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina was 3,844 yuan per ton, up 25.25% year-on-year [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 32.536 billion, 34.484 billion, and 37.649 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.266 billion, 4.548 billion, and 4.846 billion yuan [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.0 for 2024, 8.5 for 2025, and 7.9 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation given the expected price stability of electrolytic aluminum and alumina [3]

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 8.50 总股本/流通股本（亿股）46.52 / 41.30 总市值/流通市值（亿元）395 / 351 52 周内最高/最低价 8.72 / 4.91 资产负债率(%) 57.8% 市盈率 17.71 第一大股东石河子市锦隆能源产业 链有限公司 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -23% -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 天山铝业 有色金属 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 天山铝业(002532) Q3 业绩符合预期，氧化铝上涨 Q4 业绩或更进一步 ⚫ Q3 归母净利润为 10.1 亿元，同比增 63.5% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) as of October 29, 2024 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tianshan Aluminum is expected to benefit significantly from the rising aluminum prices, with a positive outlook for Q4 2024 performance [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its upstream aluminum supply chain, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential [4]. - A mid-term profit distribution plan has been announced, indicating the company's confidence in its future development [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 70.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.10 billion yuan, up 63.48% year-on-year but down 25.35% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company received approximately 1.47 billion yuan in government subsidies during the reporting period [3]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the projected revenues are 28.61 billion yuan, 28.78 billion yuan, and 29.53 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +92.6%, +5.4%, and +10.8% [6]. Price and Market Data - The current stock price is 8.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of 395.41 billion yuan [2]. - The stock has seen a 1-year high of 9.41 yuan and a low of 4.68 yuan [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.91 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.07 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.4 [6].

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 | 上市公司接 | 副总经理李亚洲 | | --- | --- | | 待人员姓名 | 副总经理、董事会秘书周建良 | | | 一、公司前三季度业绩情况介绍 | | | 今年前三季度，公司实现营收 207.96 亿元，实现归母净利润 | | | 30.84 亿元，同比增长 88.36%，扣除经常性损益的归母净利润 | | | 29.61 亿元，同比增长 122.72%。其中，第三季度单季度实现归母 | | | 净利润 10.1 亿元，同比增长 63.48%，扣非归母净利润 10 亿元， | | | 同比增长 66.96%。 | | | 从上述数据可以看出，公司今年前三季度的业绩同比实现了 | | | 较大幅度的增长，第三季度单季度归母净利润和扣非后归母净利 | | | 润也均实现了超过 60%的增长，这主要归功于电解铝价格和氧化 | | | 铝价格的上涨。受益于国内铝需求持续释放、铝土矿供应紧张以 | | | 及国际宏观环境等因素的影响，公司自产铝锭及氧化铝外销均价 | | | 较去年同期分别上涨约 6%和 30%，同时，公司氧化铝产量同比 | | 投资者关系 | ...

公司已于上周五晚公布了2020年的第三季度报告今年前三季度公司实现了营收207.96亿元实现了规模净利润的30.84亿同比增长88%扣除经常性损益的规模净利润是29.61亿元同比增长122%其中第三季度实现规模净利润10.1亿元 同比增长了63.48%扣飞的规模竞技论的11元同比增长了66.96%如此今年全三季度的业绩同比实现了较大幅度的增长第三季度三季度规模竞技论和扣飞扣的规模竞技论也均实现了超过60%以上的增长最新的主要推动以公司的电机里的一个价格和氧化的价格 对于国内铝需求持续的一个释放铝走矿供应紧张以及国际宏观环境等因素的一些影响公司的资产铝定及氧化铝外交价均实现了比去年同期分别上涨了6%和30%同时公司的氧化铝的产量也同期增加了约6%而电解铝和氧化铝的生产成本保持一个相对的稳定这些因素共同推 用了公司的一个前三季度公司定期率的板块和氧化率板块的利润同比呢有了显著的一个提升就这个业务板块的产量而言呢今年前三季度公司的定期率产量是88.16万吨同比呢是略有所增加氧化率产量呢是170万吨同比增长了6%量级探索产量呢是40.53万吨同比呢是基本持平 高生育产量是2.2万吨 民国的产量是1.2万吨今年以来 只 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][5] Core Views - The decline in aluminum prices has impacted Q3 performance, but Q4 is expected to improve due to rising aluminum and alumina prices [4][5] - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.36% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.4% but a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [3] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,560 yuan/ton, down 975 yuan/ton from Q2 but up 729 yuan/ton year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has multiple growth projects in progress, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 33.7 billion, 35.4 billion, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.22 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan [5][8] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.91, 0.97, and 1.06 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.33, 8.72, and 7.95 [5][8]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-068 更正前： 5、会议的召开方式：本次股东大会采用现场表决与网络投票相结合的方式召开。 本次股东大会提供网络投票方式，公司将通过深圳证券交易所交易系统和互联 网投票系统（http://wltp.cninfo.com.cn）向全体股东提供网络形式的投票平台，股东 可以在网络投票时间内通过上述系统行使表决权。 公司股东应选择现场投票、网络投票中的一种方式，如果同一表决权出现重复 投票表决的，以第二次投票表决结果为准。 更正后： 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会通知的更正公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 26 日在《证券时报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露了《关于召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的通知》 （公告编号：2024-067）。现经检查发现，上述公告中需更正内容，具体情况如 ...