Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) as of October 29, 2024 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tianshan Aluminum is expected to benefit significantly from the rising aluminum prices, with a positive outlook for Q4 2024 performance [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its upstream aluminum supply chain, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential [4]. - A mid-term profit distribution plan has been announced, indicating the company's confidence in its future development [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 70.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.10 billion yuan, up 63.48% year-on-year but down 25.35% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company received approximately 1.47 billion yuan in government subsidies during the reporting period [3]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the projected revenues are 28.61 billion yuan, 28.78 billion yuan, and 29.53 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +92.6%, +5.4%, and +10.8% [6]. Price and Market Data - The current stock price is 8.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of 395.41 billion yuan [2]. - The stock has seen a 1-year high of 9.41 yuan and a low of 4.68 yuan [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.91 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.07 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.4 [6].

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 | 上市公司接 | 副总经理李亚洲 | | --- | --- | | 待人员姓名 | 副总经理、董事会秘书周建良 | | | 一、公司前三季度业绩情况介绍 | | | 今年前三季度，公司实现营收 207.96 亿元，实现归母净利润 | | | 30.84 亿元，同比增长 88.36%，扣除经常性损益的归母净利润 | | | 29.61 亿元，同比增长 122.72%。其中，第三季度单季度实现归母 | | | 净利润 10.1 亿元，同比增长 63.48%，扣非归母净利润 10 亿元， | | | 同比增长 66.96%。 | | | 从上述数据可以看出，公司今年前三季度的业绩同比实现了 | | | 较大幅度的增长，第三季度单季度归母净利润和扣非后归母净利 | | | 润也均实现了超过 60%的增长，这主要归功于电解铝价格和氧化 | | | 铝价格的上涨。受益于国内铝需求持续释放、铝土矿供应紧张以 | | | 及国际宏观环境等因素的影响，公司自产铝锭及氧化铝外销均价 | | | 较去年同期分别上涨约 6%和 30%，同时，公司氧化铝产量同比 | | 投资者关系 | ...

公司已于上周五晚公布了2020年的第三季度报告今年前三季度公司实现了营收207.96亿元实现了规模净利润的30.84亿同比增长88%扣除经常性损益的规模净利润是29.61亿元同比增长122%其中第三季度实现规模净利润10.1亿元 同比增长了63.48%扣飞的规模竞技论的11元同比增长了66.96%如此今年全三季度的业绩同比实现了较大幅度的增长第三季度三季度规模竞技论和扣飞扣的规模竞技论也均实现了超过60%以上的增长最新的主要推动以公司的电机里的一个价格和氧化的价格 对于国内铝需求持续的一个释放铝走矿供应紧张以及国际宏观环境等因素的一些影响公司的资产铝定及氧化铝外交价均实现了比去年同期分别上涨了6%和30%同时公司的氧化铝的产量也同期增加了约6%而电解铝和氧化铝的生产成本保持一个相对的稳定这些因素共同推 用了公司的一个前三季度公司定期率的板块和氧化率板块的利润同比呢有了显著的一个提升就这个业务板块的产量而言呢今年前三季度公司的定期率产量是88.16万吨同比呢是略有所增加氧化率产量呢是170万吨同比增长了6%量级探索产量呢是40.53万吨同比呢是基本持平 高生育产量是2.2万吨 民国的产量是1.2万吨今年以来 只 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][5] Core Views - The decline in aluminum prices has impacted Q3 performance, but Q4 is expected to improve due to rising aluminum and alumina prices [4][5] - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.36% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.4% but a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [3] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,560 yuan/ton, down 975 yuan/ton from Q2 but up 729 yuan/ton year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has multiple growth projects in progress, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 33.7 billion, 35.4 billion, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.22 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan [5][8] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.91, 0.97, and 1.06 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.33, 8.72, and 7.95 [5][8]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2024-068 更正前： 5、会议的召开方式：本次股东大会采用现场表决与网络投票相结合的方式召开。 本次股东大会提供网络投票方式，公司将通过深圳证券交易所交易系统和互联 网投票系统（http://wltp.cninfo.com.cn）向全体股东提供网络形式的投票平台，股东 可以在网络投票时间内通过上述系统行使表决权。 公司股东应选择现场投票、网络投票中的一种方式，如果同一表决权出现重复 投票表决的，以第二次投票表决结果为准。 更正后： 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会通知的更正公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 天山铝业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 26 日在《证券时报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露了《关于召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的通知》 （公告编号：2024-067）。现经检查发现，上述公告中需更正内容，具体情况如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 20.796 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 88.36% to CNY 3.084 billion [2][3] - The significant profit increase is attributed to the rise in electrolytic aluminum profits and the growth in both volume and price of alumina [3] - The company has improved its financial metrics, with a 62.11% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities and a 38.41% increase in cash [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.010 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.35% but a year-on-year increase of 63.48% [2] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by 6% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by 30% [3] - The production costs for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina remained stable, contributing to the profit growth [3] Profit Distribution - On October 25, 2024, the company announced a cash dividend of CNY 2 per 10 shares, amounting to 29.92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 36.626 billion, CNY 39.210 billion, and CNY 41.418 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 4.003 billion, CNY 4.407 billion, and CNY 4.775 billion [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 0.86, CNY 0.95, and CNY 1.03 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.83, 8.93, and 8.24 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532) with a target price of 9.7 RMB, compared to the current price of 8.46 RMB [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, driven by rising alumina prices [1] - The company achieved revenue of 20.796 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 88.36% to 3.084 billion RMB [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 7.011 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 63.48% to 1.01 billion RMB [1] - The company focuses on shareholder returns, implementing both share repurchases and dividend distributions [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, domestic aluminum ingot prices averaged 19,600 RMB/ton, up 3.8% year-on-year, while Guangxi alumina prices averaged 3,917 RMB/ton, up 37% year-on-year [1] - The company's operating income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.796 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.084 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 88.36% [1] - The company's period expenses remained stable, with total expenses of 1 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [1] Shareholder Returns - The company completed a share repurchase in July 2024, repurchasing 15.1553 million shares, accounting for 0.33% of the total shares [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend plan in October 2024, distributing 2 RMB per 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 920 million RMB, accounting for 29.92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Industry and Market Performance - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from tight alumina supply, which may improve in the future [1] - The company's market performance over the past 12 months shows a significant increase, with a 24% rise compared to the broader market [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][10] Core Views - The company demonstrated a robust profit growth with a 64% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.4% [1][4] - The decline in quarterly net profit was primarily due to a drop in aluminum prices, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 at 19,550 yuan per ton, down 1,000 yuan per ton from the previous quarter. The company produced approximately 290,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the quarter, leading to a profit reduction of 260 million yuan due to falling prices [1][4] - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain setup, which has allowed it to maintain stable profitability despite fluctuations in alumina prices. The average price of alumina in Q3 2024 was 3,950 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous quarter, and has further risen to 4,600 yuan per ton in Q4 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [1][4] - The company announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 923 million yuan [1][4] - The company is focusing on solidifying its upstream resource base by developing overseas bauxite projects in Indonesia and Guinea, aiming to secure high-quality, low-cost bauxite resources to mitigate long-term price increases [1][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 39.1 billion, 39.2 billion, and 39.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 4.14 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan, with growth rates of 87.7%, 4.9%, and 5.2% [2][10] - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.89, 0.93, and 0.98 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5, 9.1, and 8.6 times [2][10]

分析师登记编码：S0130516080004 公司点评报告 · 有色金属行业 Q3 业绩符合预期,产业链一体化优势显著 天山铝业 2024 年三季报点评 2024 年 10月 27 日 ● 事件:公司发布 2024年三季报,公司 2024年前三季度实现营业收入 207.96 亿元，同比减少 6.93%;实现归属母公司股东净利润 30.84 亿元,同比增长 88.36%;实现扣非后归属于母公司股东净利润 29.61亿元,同比增长 122.72%。公司 2024Q3 单季度实现营业收入 70.11亿元,同比减少 7.12%, 环比增加 0.73%;实现归属母公司股东净利润10.10 亿元,同比增长 63.48%, 环比减少 25.35%;实现扣非后归属于母公司股东净利润 10亿元,同比增长 66.96%，环比减少 20.35%。 ● 分红预案:公司拟定 2024年中期利润分配预案,拟向全体股东每 10 股派发 现金红利2元(含税),拟派发现金红利为 9.23 亿元(含税),占公司 2024 年 1-9 月实现归属上市公司股东净利润的 29.92%。 ● 2024Q3公司氧化铝板块业绩提升,电解铝板块业绩环比下降: ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved revenue of RMB 20 8 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, up 6 9% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 08 billion, up 88 4% YoY [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 7 01 billion, down 7 1% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 01 billion, up 63 5% YoY but down 25 4% QoQ [1] - The company's integrated layout is complete, with self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, and 80%-90% self-sufficiency in electricity [1] - The company has a significant cost advantage due to low energy prices in Xinjiang, where its electrolytic aluminum capacity is located [1] - Strategic layout includes 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia and securing bauxite resources in Guinea [1] Financial Performance - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 3 893 billion, RMB 4 485 billion, and RMB 4 937 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 28 975 billion in 2023 to RMB 33 590 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin increasing from 7 61% to 14 71% over the same period [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 9 15% in 2023 to 14 83% in 2026 [4] Production and Operations - In Q3 2024, the company's electrolytic aluminum and alumina production was nearly full, with electrolytic aluminum output of around 290,000 tons and alumina output of around 600,000 tons [1] - The company's 2024 production targets include 1 16 million tons of primary aluminum, 13 billion kWh of power generation, 2 35 million tons of alumina, and 550,000 tons of prebaked anodes [1] - Alumina gross profit increased in Q3 2024, while electrolytic aluminum gross profit declined due to a RMB 975/ton drop in aluminum prices [1] Strategic Developments - The company has completed the acquisition of three bauxite mines in Indonesia and plans to invest USD 1 556 billion to build a 2 million-ton alumina production line [1] - In late 2023, the company acquired 100% of Galicomininglimited, indirectly obtaining 50% of Elite Mining Guinea S A and exclusive purchase rights for bauxite, with planned annual production capacity of 5-6 million tons [1] Valuation and Dividends - The company proposed a cash dividend of RMB 2 00 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 923 million, accounting for 29 92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first nine months of 2024 [1] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 10 28x in 2023 to 5 46x in 2026 [5]