Core Viewpoint - The AI arms race has entered its 2.0 phase, shifting focus from general-purpose GPUs to self-developed ASIC chips and interconnect technologies by CSP cloud vendors [1][2] Group 1: AI Development and Investment - Since the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 in 2023, major tech companies have significantly increased investments in large model development and computing center construction, with projected Capex for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta reaching $361 billion by 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 58% [2] - Domestic companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are expected to exceed 360 billion yuan in Capex [2] - NVIDIA, as a leading AI chip manufacturer, has faced supply shortages, while CSPs are increasingly investing in self-developed ASIC chips for better cost-performance ratios [2] Group 2: CSP Cloud Vendors' Self-Developed ASIC Chips - Google has been developing its TPU ASIC chips since 2015, with plans for the seventh generation and innovations in OCS architecture starting from TPUv4 [3] - AWS's Trainium chip is progressing to its third generation, with notable interconnect innovations using copper cables and plans for copper backplane connections in future clusters [3] - Meta has designed its MTIA chip and has a long history of data center architecture design, including the well-known CLOS architecture [3] - Other companies like Broadcom and Marvell are actively supporting global CSP cloud vendors in data center construction [3] Group 3: Silicon Photonic Modules - Silicon photonic modules integrate various optical components into a single chip, offering low cost, low power consumption, and high integration [4] - The application scenarios for silicon photonic modules include data center communication and telecom networks, benefiting from the demand for cost-effective solutions driven by AIGC transformations [4] - The market for silicon photonic modules is projected to reach $10.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 45% over the past five years, corresponding to nearly 18 million units sold [4] Group 4: Growth in Optical Communication Market - The demand for ASIC chips is expected to increase, with global shipments of 800G optical modules projected to reach 40 million units and 1.6T optical modules exceeding 7 million units next year [5] - The penetration rate of CPO is expected to reach 50% by 2029, with the OCS market projected to exceed $1.6 billion [5] - The PCIe Switch market is anticipated to reach $5 billion, while the DCI market is expected to reach $28.4 billion [5]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights that advertising and SaaS products are high-demand areas based on token consumption and input-output analysis [1] - There is a significant need for continued support from downstream market conditions for the massive CAPEX investments, particularly in sectors like autonomous driving and robotics, which are driving GPU leasing demand [1] - The report indicates that without a trend of explosive growth in downstream applications, leading companies may slow their CAPEX spending, especially those reliant on single customers [1] Supply Side - The financial pressure from high CAPEX growth and power shortages is evident, with major overseas companies' CAPEX exceeding 60% of their operating cash flow [2] - Companies are increasingly resorting to financing leases and financial operations to manage cash flow constraints, with firms like Meta and Google utilizing debt financing to supplement their investments [2] - The projected growth in data center capacity in North America is expected to be 100% in 2026 and 50% in 2027, leading to significant power shortages [2] Demand Side - There remains a substantial gap between the cumulative incremental CAPEX of overseas cloud providers since the end of 2022 and the current backlog of unfulfilled orders, which is less than 50% of the current order scale [3] - Excluding Oracle, which is heavily impacted by OpenAI, the three major cloud providers are still in a state of supply shortage, indicating that current CAPEX levels are not excessive [3] Computing Power Demand Structure - The current structure of computing power demand shows a higher internal proportion for cloud providers, supporting AI applications, model training, and the development of AI products like Gemini and Copilot [4] - External revenue is also growing rapidly, primarily from GPU leasing and API calls for AI application development, with GPU leasing accounting for about 70% of demand [4] - API calls, while currently a smaller portion of demand, are growing quickly, with many small companies utilizing models for customer service and process optimization [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities experienced a decline of 2.04% in stock price on November 17, with a trading volume of 274 million yuan and a market capitalization of 137.75 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 17, Guosen Securities' stock price was 13.45 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of 23.96% [1] - Over the last five trading days, the stock has decreased by 6.34%, and over the last 20 and 60 days, it has decreased by 1.97% and 5.75%, respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guosen Securities reported a net profit of 9.137 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 87.28% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 27.626 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with 8.555 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 14.52% to 111,100, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.16% to 86,530 shares [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 136 million shares, a decrease of 27.72 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is expected to face pressure in 2025, with brand performance remaining subdued and manufacturing exports impacted by tariffs [1][2] - In 2026, manufacturing is anticipated to stabilize before brands, with investment opportunities focusing on resilient sectors such as outdoor sports, quality manufacturing firms benefiting from order recovery, and companies innovating in products and marketing [1][3] Industry Overview 2025 - Industry data indicates that apparel brand retail sales growth is slow, and textile manufacturing exports are weakening due to tariff impacts. Despite a low base in Q2 and Q3, growth accelerated in September and October [2] - The textile manufacturing sector experienced a high start but a decline in performance, while revenue drops in apparel and home textiles have narrowed. The sportswear segment showed better revenue growth, and online channels outperformed offline for home textiles [2] - The A-share textile and apparel index underperformed the broader market, with continuous downward adjustments in brand expectations and slow valuation increases in manufacturing [2] Outlook for 2026 - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize before the apparel sector, with structural opportunities in the industry. Key areas include the dominance of sports and outdoor categories, strong online growth driven by major home textile products, and new brands leveraging social media marketing and product iterations [3] - Brands with mid-to-high pricing power, the ability to explore niche markets, and innovative product offerings are likely to stand out in a cautious consumption environment [3] Manufacturing Opportunities - Tariff disruptions are showing signs of stabilization, with a recovery trend in exports of footwear and apparel products. Some raw materials, like wool, have seen a short-term price rebound [4] - Textile manufacturing firms are experiencing order pressures, but as tariff costs are gradually passed down, expectations for order stabilization have improved for Q4 and early next year. Companies with strong new product development and efficiency management are viewed favorably for both fundamental and valuation growth [4] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on three main areas: outdoor sports, quality manufacturing, and brand innovation. The outdoor sports sector is expected to have long-term growth advantages, while brands that can innovate products and drive structural price increases are also promising [5] - Specific companies to watch include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep in the sports sector; Shenzhou International, Huali Group, and Kai Run in manufacturing; and Bosideng and Haier in the apparel and home textile sector [5]

每经AI快讯，泰永长征（SZ 002927，收盘价：18.49元）发布公告称，2025年11月13日、11月14日，泰 永长征接受国信证券等投资者调研，公司副总经理、董事会秘书、财务负责人韩海凤等人参与接待，并 回答了投资者提出的问题。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访尹艳林：让有钱且愿消费的人顺利消费；个税起征点可 提高，最高边际税率可下调，让有关群体少缴税、多收入 （记者 王瀚黎） 2025年1至6月份，泰永长征的营业收入构成为：工业占比100.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, with a focus on sector rotation and investment opportunities in technology and cyclical industries [1][3][10]. Market Performance - The A-share market has been oscillating around the 4000-point mark, with a slowdown in the upward slope of the index, but this does not indicate the end of the current market cycle [1][10]. - The market is currently in a "systematic slow bull" phase, with a positive long-term outlook [1][12]. Sector Rotation - There is a notable rotation among sectors, with funds shifting from previously high-performing technology stocks to sectors like lithium batteries and consumer goods, benefiting from policy support [3][10][11]. - Investment themes to watch include anti-involution and dividend opportunities, as well as specific technology segments that may see a rebound [2][4]. Institutional Behavior - As the year-end approaches, institutional allocations are expected to stabilize, leading to a focus on balanced investment strategies [3][8]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to set the tone for macroeconomic policies and investment priorities for the following year [8][11]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a decline in M1 growth, suggesting a weakening macro liquidity environment, which may impact market dynamics [10]. - The market is currently experiencing a "high position oscillation," with expectations of a gradual recovery in economic conditions [5][16]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with potential for performance improvement, such as AI, engineering machinery, and renewable energy, while also considering the implications of global market trends [7][17]. - The emphasis on "small and mid-cap + thematic investment" is seen as a favorable strategy in the current market environment [15].

Focus Review - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 6-month reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for maturing operations [3] - The PBOC has established a pattern of monthly liquidity injections, indicating a continued focus on maintaining a loose monetary environment amid increased growth demands [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities suggests that China's capital market is transitioning from an emerging market to a mature market, with an increasing global business exposure for listed companies, which is foundational for a low-volatility bull market [5] - Huatai Securities predicts that the A-share profit cycle will likely recover in the first half of 2026, driven by positive signals from capacity inventory cycles and overseas expansion [6] - Galaxy Securities warns of a potential decline in market risk appetite as the year-end approaches, suggesting a focus on cyclical sectors and dividend stocks that may benefit from improved Sino-U.S. trade relations [7] Industry Research - HSBC Jintrust Fund highlights the storage industry as a sector with multiple opportunities, driven by policy shifts and increased demand, particularly from AI data centers, suggesting a strategic opportunity for high growth [12] -招商证券 identifies investment potential in sectors experiencing supply clearing, particularly in resources, consumer goods, and traditional machinery, recommending focus on quality leaders and low-inventory industries [13] - 嘉实基金 sees significant long-term growth potential in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that recent corrections are a market adjustment rather than an end to the growth trend [14] Asset Allocation - Guosen Securities indicates that the bull market may be entering its second phase, with economic conditions improving and a broadening market trend, particularly in technology and undervalued sectors like liquor and real estate [22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the REITs index rose slightly, outperforming major equity - linked indices. The top - performing sectors were affordable housing, transportation, and consumption. The average weekly price changes of equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were +0.7% and +1.0% respectively. From the comparison of weekly price changes of major indices, CSI REITs > CSI Convertible Bonds > CSI Aggregate Bonds > SSE 50 Index. As of November 14, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 6BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 253BP [1]. - The CSI REITs index had a weekly price change of +0.8% and a year - to - date price change of +3.6%. As of November 14, 2025, its closing price was 818.17 points. The REITs' total market capitalization increased to 222.5 billion yuan on November 14, up 1.9 billion yuan from the previous week, and the average daily turnover rate for the week was 0.56%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - Most REITs sectors closed up, with affordable housing, transportation, and consumption leading the gains. In terms of trading activity, water conservancy facilities REITs had the highest trading activity, and park infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week. The State Council's new measures support the issuance of more REITs by private investment projects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: The CSI REITs index had a weekly price change of +0.8%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bonds index (+0.5%), the CSI Aggregate Bonds index (+0.1%), and the SSE 50 index (-1.1%). Year - to - date, the order of price changes of major indices was: CSI Convertible Bonds (+18.6%) > SSE 50 (+17.6%) > CSI REITs (+3.6%) > CSI Aggregate Bonds (+0.9%). The one - year return of the CSI REITs index was 5.9%, with a volatility of 7.5%. The return was lower than that of the SSE 50 index and the CSI Convertible Bonds index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bonds index; the volatility was lower than that of the SSE 50 index and the CSI Convertible Bonds index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bonds index [2]. - **Sector and Individual Performance**: Most REITs sectors closed up. The top three weekly gainers were CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation REIT (+6.24%), CICC Shandong Expressway REIT (+5.18%), and China Merchants Shekou Rental Housing REIT (+4.10%). Water conservancy facilities REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate of 1.3%, and park infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume proportion, accounting for 22.8% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT (12.91 million yuan), China Merchants Shekou Rental Housing REIT (12.72 million yuan), and Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT (11.16 million yuan) [3]. Primary Market Issuance - As of November 14, 2025, there was 1 REITs product in the "accepted" stage, 2 in the "inquired" stage, 5 in the "feedback" stage, 6 in the "passed and awaiting listing" stage, and 14 first - issued products that had passed and been listed on the exchange [23]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. The average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.22% as of November 14. For equity - type REITs, the focus is on the dividend yield, and for franchise - type REITs, the focus is on the internal rate of return. As of November 14, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 6BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 253BP [25][26]. Industry News - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment and actively support the issuance of REITs by private investment projects. The National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 projects issued and listed, raising approximately 207 billion yuan. Fourteen private investment projects have been listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan. The public subscription multiple of "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT" was only about 17.1 times, indicating that public investors' subscription sentiment is shifting from irrational speculation to rational judgment based on fundamentals [3][4][33].

Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a high operating rate of 80.69% in January 2025, with a subsequent stabilization around 70% [1][2] - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has shown significant growth, while export growth has slowed due to high base effects from the previous year [1] - The industry is expected to see a price recovery and positive average profits due to planned production cuts of 30% by single factories [3] Demand Side - Domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [1] - Export volume for organic silicon intermediates was 420,100 tons in the same period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.30%, reflecting a slowdown due to high base effects [1] Supply Side - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply landscape; domestic production capacity for organic silicon intermediates increased from 1.675 million tons in 2020 to 3.44 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [2] - The industry maintains a high concentration of production capacity, with major players like Hoshine Silicon Industry holding a 26% market share [2] Product Pricing - The average price of DMC is currently at 12,500 yuan per ton, having increased by 1,000 yuan per ton recently; the industry is positioned at historically low price levels [3] - The planned production cuts are expected to help stabilize prices and potentially lead to a recovery in industry average profits [3]

Group 1 - The current bull market, which began with the "924" trend in 2024, is not over and is now entering its second phase, shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamentals-driven [1] - The complete bull market consists of three phases: incubation, explosion, and frenzy, with the current phase resembling the 519 market, characterized by structural features where "small assets" outperform "large assets" [1] - By 2026, the driving force of the bull market will transition to fundamentals, with steady recovery in ROE and improved profit expectations for listed companies [1] Group 2 - Technology is the main theme of the current bull market, with significant contributions from 15 major tech stocks accounting for a 10% increase in the overall market, particularly from companies like SMIC and Cambrian [2] - The AI industry is led by both China and the US, with over one-third of domestic hard-tech companies still in the growth phase, indicating substantial profit margin improvement potential compared to US counterparts [2] - Key focus areas for 2026 include application performance in AI glasses, robotics, smart driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [2] Group 3 - Mid-bull market often sees style rotation, with a focus on undervalued sectors such as liquor (high dividend), brokerage (high growth), and real estate (leading stock prices) [3] - For dividend assets that underperformed in 2025, maintaining a certain level of exposure is advisable due to their ability to withstand market fluctuations and the demand for dividend yields that exceed existing mortgage rates [3]