Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the rebound in pig prices may be nearing its end, with supply pressure leading to a potential bottoming out of prices. As of November 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 11.90 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.80 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][12] - The report highlights that the entry of second-stage breeding is nearing its end, with high existing stock levels leading to price pressure ahead of the New Year. The proportion of second-stage breeding in actual sales was 2.12% from October 20-31, 2025, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and 0.20 percentage points year-on-year [4][19] - The report suggests that the ongoing losses in pig farming may accelerate the culling of sows, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments and disease outbreaks. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the average weight of pigs being sold has increased to 128.30 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.40 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.23 kg. The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed, indicating an increase in fat pig supply [3][12] - The report also mentions that the breeding stock of sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of October 2025, with the price of 7 kg piglets rebounding to 198 yuan/head due to rising pig prices [4][24] Weekly Market Performance - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 0.29 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the agricultural index rising by 0.79% [5][30] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with stocks like Jinxinnong, Yuegui, and Luoniushan showing significant increases [5][30] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 0.80 yuan/kg [5][38] - The report also tracks the prices of other agricultural products, noting increases in beef, shrimp, corn futures, and soybean meal futures [5][39][48] Key News - The report mentions that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 10.1% month-on-month increase in the price of live pigs in late October 2025 [5][36] - It also notes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released guidelines for the construction of a smart agriculture standard system [5][37] Feed Production - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the total industrial feed production in September 2025 was 30.36 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [5][57] Import Data - In September 2025, pork imports totaled 80,000 tons, down 22.5% year-on-year, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 75.2% year-on-year [5][54][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side relaxation continues to suppress pig prices, with a significant acceleration in the reduction of breeding sows in October [2] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][38] - The planting chain shows a positive outlook with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][38] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week [11] - The price of 15 kg piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 4.41% week-on-week [11] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss phase, with pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaning pig prices around 200 yuan/head [8][11] Poultry - The white feather broiler price remains stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while chick prices have decreased to 3.54 yuan/chick, down 1.12% week-on-week [16] - The supply of broilers is increasing, but purchasing enthusiasm remains low [16] Feed Sector - Corn and wheat prices have decreased, while soybean meal prices have increased slightly [24] - The average price of corn is 2238.53 yuan/ton, down 0.07% week-on-week [24] Bulk Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber price is 14995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week-on-week, with a new round of inventory replenishment starting [34] - The overall supply remains ample, and the market is characterized by weak demand [34] Investment Recommendations - Positive outlook for the pig farming sector with recommended stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [3][38] - The planting sector shows promising fundamentals with recommended stocks such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][38] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommended stocks including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [3][38]

证券代码：002891 证券简称：中宠股份 公告编号：2025-068 债券代码：127076 债券简称：中宠转 2 烟台中宠食品股份有限公司 关于控股股东之一致行动人减持计划实施完成的公告 公司控股股东之一致行动人上海通怡投资管理有限公司－通怡春晓 19 号私募证券投 资基金保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 烟台中宠食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 17 日披露 《关于控股股东之一致行动人减持股份的预披露公告》（公告编号：2025-046）， 持有公司 456 万股（占减持计划披露时公司总股本比例为 1.50%）的控股股东烟 台中幸生物科技有限公司（以下简称"烟台中幸"）之一致行动人上海通怡投资 管理有限公司－通怡春晓 19 号私募证券投资基金（以下简称"通怡春晓 19 号"） 计划自减持计划公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的三个月内（即 2025 年 8 月 7 日-2025 年 11 月 6 日）以大宗交易和/或集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份不超过 456 万股 ...

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. announced a reduction of 4.56 million shares, accounting for 1.50% of the total share capital [1] - The shares were sold through centralized bidding and block trading, with average prices of 58.37 yuan and 55.59 yuan respectively [1] - Following the reduction, the shareholder's holding ratio has decreased to 0% [1]

Core Insights - The company, established in 1998, has evolved into a pioneer in the Chinese pet food industry, focusing on high-end pet snacks and expanding internationally with production facilities in six countries [1] - The company aims to strengthen its brand presence domestically while accelerating overseas market expansion and maintaining traditional OEM business [1][2] - The pet food market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size expected to reach 267 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% [2] Company Strategy - The company is committed to building its own brands, focusing on the domestic market while expanding its global supply chain [1] - The brand matrix includes "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL," targeting both domestic and international mid-to-high-end markets [1] - The company plans to optimize its product structure by increasing the proportion of high-margin staple food products, which will enhance overall gross margin [2] Market Trends - The penetration rate of pet ownership in China has increased from 13% in 2019 to 22% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential compared to the 70% penetration rate in the U.S. [2] - The pet staple food revenue has seen substantial growth, rising from 6.36% of total revenue in 2020 to an expected 24.78% by 2024, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 55.33 billion yuan in 2025, 69.00 billion yuan in 2026, and 85.12 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.93%, 24.70%, and 23.37% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.68 billion yuan in 2025, 5.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.24 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 18.81%, 25.66%, and 23.18% respectively [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 37.6, 30.0, and 24.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage with a current price of 57.8 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 1998, has evolved from producing high-end pet snacks to becoming a pioneer in the Chinese pet food industry, with a focus on international expansion and brand development [5][11]. - The pet food market in China is projected to grow from 173.2 billion CNY in 2022 to 267 billion CNY by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5% [5][33]. - The company aims to enhance its product structure by increasing the proportion of high-margin staple foods, which have seen a rise in revenue share from 6.36% in 2020 to 24.78% in 2024 [5][40]. Financial Forecast - Total revenue is expected to grow from 37.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 55.33 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 23.93% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.33 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.68 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.81% [4][5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 12.07% in 2023 to 17.08% in 2025 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 23 modern pet food production bases globally and has established a strong brand matrix, including "WANPY," "TOPTREES," and "ZEAL," to capture both domestic and international markets [5][46]. - The penetration rate of pet ownership in China has increased from 13% in 2019 to 22% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential compared to the 70% rate in the US [5][35]. - The company is committed to maintaining a focus on domestic market growth while accelerating overseas market expansion [5][40].

Market Overview - The pet economy sector experienced a decline of 0.4% on November 7, with Qingmu Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the pet economy sector included: - Huilong New Materials (301057) with a closing price of 26.23, up 7.68% [1] - Shifeng Culture (002862) at 19.50, up 5.52% [1] - Lansheng Co. (600826) at 11.54, up 3.04% [1] - Other companies with positive performance included: - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756) at 16.29, up 2.65% [1] - Guai Bao Pet (301498) at 76.00, up 2.29% [1] Capital Flow - The pet economy sector saw a net inflow of 40.86 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 73.58 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant capital flow included: - Lansheng Co. (600826) with a net inflow of 36.59 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shifeng Culture (002862) with a net inflow of 36.44 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756) with a net inflow of 29.32 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [85] Core Viewpoints - The pet food market is expected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Pet staple food accounts for 36% of the pet economy [3][6] - The trend towards refined feeding is evident, with a growing preference for baked food and specialized diets among pet owners [3][38] - Online channels remain the primary battlefield for pet staple food, with 57.7% of pet owners choosing to purchase online [3][54] - Domestic brands are performing well, with a significant shift towards local brands as consumers show a preference for them over foreign brands [3][75] Summary by Sections Pet Staple Food: Core Track of the Pet Economy - The pet staple food segment is projected to maintain stable growth, driven by the increasing number of pet owners and the trend of treating pets as family members [3][20] - The pet market is expected to reach 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2027 [6] Products: Rapid Growth of Baked Food - Baked food is experiencing rapid growth, with a preference for refined feeding trends continuing among pet owners [3][42] - The preference for ordinary staple food is declining, while interest in specialized and prescription diets is increasing [3][48] Channels: Online Dominance - Online purchasing remains dominant, with major platforms like Taobao and JD.com leading the market [3][54] - Douyin is rapidly rising as a significant channel for pet food purchases, reflecting changing consumer behaviors [3][61] Competitive Landscape: Strong Performance of Domestic Brands - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, particularly in the mid-range and low-end segments, as they offer competitive pricing and quality [3][72] - In 2024, 35% of consumers preferred domestic brands for cat food, reflecting a 7 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][75]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and revenue, indicating strong performance in the pet food industry [1][2]. Company Performance - As of November 7, Zhongchong's stock price rose by 2.06% to 58.99 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 17.955 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 66.87%, with a 3.13% rise over the last five trading days [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhongchong reported a revenue of 3.860 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.05%, and a net profit of 333 million CNY, up 18.21% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of October 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongchong was 43,000, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.19% to 7,071 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Zhongchong has distributed a total of 322 million CNY in dividends, with 264 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 14.3228 million shares, a decrease of 7.0092 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Dongfanghong Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund entered the top ten circulating shareholders, holding 1.7929 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a low overall allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a heavy stock allocation ratio of 0.78% as of Q3 2025, which is below the standard allocation ratio and historical average [2][11][19] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in heavy stock allocations in the feed and breeding sectors, with breeding at 0.31% and feed at 0.40% for Q3 2025, both showing a decline compared to previous quarters [12][19] - Major companies such as Haida Group and Muyuan Foods have reduced their allocations, indicating a trend of decreased investment in leading stocks within the sector [3][14] - The report suggests that the breeding sector is entering a phase of high-quality development, recommending investments in low-cost leading companies and growth-oriented stocks [4][19] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Allocation Analysis - As of the end of Q3 2025, the heavy stock allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is 0.78%, down 0.58 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The heavy stock allocation in the breeding industry is 0.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the feed industry allocation is 0.40%, down 0.45 percentage points [12][14] Company-Specific Allocation Changes - Among the top 15 heavy stocks, most companies have reduced their allocations, with Haida Group and Muyuan Foods decreasing by 0.34 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [3][14] - The top five stocks with increased heavy stock allocation include Tiankang Biological (+2.42%) and Hainan Rubber (+1.41%), while the top five with decreased allocations include Zhongchong Pet (-3.21%) and Juxing Agriculture (-3.14%) [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading stocks in the breeding sector such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as seasonal rebounds in chicken prices [4][19] - For breeding support (feed and animal health), it suggests monitoring leading companies like Haida Group and BANGJI Technology for potential restructuring opportunities [4][19] - The planting sector shows stable profitability, with recommendations to pay attention to companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4][19]