鼎龙股份（300054）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为2.9亿元–3.2亿元，比上年同期的2.18亿元上升 33.12%-46.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

Core Viewpoint - CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) technology is essential for the development of integrated circuits, playing a critical role in achieving surface flatness during chip manufacturing, which is increasingly important as technology nodes shrink and the number of layers in chips increases [6][38]. Group I: CMP Technology and Market Overview - CMP technology is a necessary process in wafer manufacturing, which includes multiple steps such as diffusion, lithography, etching, ion implantation, thin film growth, and CMP itself [9]. - The global CMP materials market is experiencing continuous growth, driven by advancements in semiconductor technology and increasing demand from various sectors, including 5G and AI [32][49]. - The CMP materials market is characterized by a high degree of technical, talent, and patent barriers, with significant market share held by leading companies from the US and Japan [54]. Group II: Market Size and Growth - The global CMP polishing pad market size increased from $650 million in 2016 to $1.13 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 11.69% [49]. - The CMP polishing liquid market also saw growth, rising from $1.1 billion in 2016 to $1.43 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 5.39% [50]. - China's CMP polishing liquid market grew significantly, from 1.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, achieving a CAGR of 12.28%, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the global market [50]. Group III: Domestic Industry Dynamics - Chinese companies are increasingly entering the CMP materials market, with government policies supporting the development of the semiconductor industry and promoting domestic alternatives to imported materials [39][41]. - The domestic semiconductor materials market is expected to continue growing at a rate higher than the global average, driven by technological advancements and increasing local demand [32][39]. - The shift towards domestic production of CMP materials is seen as a strategic move to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, especially in light of export controls from the US and Japan [39][54]. Group IV: Product Segmentation and Applications - CMP materials are primarily categorized into polishing liquids, polishing pads, and cleaning agents, with polishing liquids accounting for 49% and polishing pads for 33% of the market share [18]. - Various types of polishing liquids are used for different applications, including copper CMP, tungsten CMP, and dielectric CMP, each tailored for specific manufacturing processes [19][21]. - Polishing pads are typically made from polyurethane and are designed to maintain a stable polishing environment while effectively distributing polishing liquids [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 TrendBank (Fifth) Lithography Industry Conference will be held on July 9-10, 2025, in Hefei, focusing on advancements in lithography technology and the challenges faced by the domestic semiconductor industry [29][41]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will feature over 20 speakers from the lithography industry, covering advanced lithography technologies, photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, and lithography equipment [32]. - The event aims to promote deep integration of industry, academia, and research, enhancing communication and collaboration among domestic research institutions, universities, and enterprises [41][42]. - The conference will address the current state of domestic lithography materials, including challenges in localization and technology bottlenecks [31][40]. Group 2: Key Discussions - A roundtable forum will discuss the impact of US-China political and tariff conflicts on domestic semiconductor materials, equipment, and technological innovation [10]. - The forum will also explore the ability of Chinese companies to meet high-barrier, low-market-share domestic demands for materials and equipment in light of recent supply chain disruptions [10]. - Discussions will include the challenges of developing photoresist materials for advanced packaging technologies and the implications of heterogeneous integration on product development [10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The domestic lithography industry faces significant challenges, including low self-sufficiency rates in high-end photoresists and reliance on imports for certain high-purity electronic chemicals [40]. - The manufacturing technology for high-precision masks is complex, with key raw materials primarily imported, which poses risks to supply stability [40]. - The high-end lithography equipment market is dominated by foreign companies, creating a "bottleneck" in the domestic semiconductor industry's development [40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply disruption of CMP slurry, specifically DST slurry produced by AGC in Taiwan, has accelerated the pace of domestic alternatives in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the urgency for local manufacturers to innovate and adapt [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of CMP Slurry - CMP slurry is essential for the chemical mechanical polishing process in semiconductor manufacturing, akin to smoothing and leveling surfaces in construction [2]. - The slurry consists of ultra-fine abrasives, chemical agents, and water, and is crucial for achieving the required surface smoothness in logic and memory chip production [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The CMP slurry market is predominantly controlled by American and Japanese companies, with Cabot Microelectronics holding 33% of the global market share, while Japanese firms account for an additional 23% [3]. - Domestic manufacturers currently hold a market share of 25-30%, which is even lower in high-end processes (e.g., below 28nm) [3]. - The global CMP slurry market was valued at $1.89 billion in 2021 and is projected to exceed $2.6 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [3]. - In China, the CMP slurry market is expected to grow from approximately 2.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.6 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [3]. Group 3: Demand Surge Factors - The demand for CMP slurry is increasing due to the growing complexity of high-end processes, with the number of CMP steps for 14nm logic chips doubling, requiring more types of slurry [3]. - The rise of 3D NAND memory chips, with increasing stacking layers, necessitates more intricate polishing processes, leading to a significant increase in CMP slurry usage [3]. Group 4: Domestic Players - Anji Technology has been a leader in CMP slurry since 2006, achieving a market share of over 5% globally and increasing its share in China from 20.9% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2021 [4]. - Sanhe New Materials focuses on diamond polishing liquids for hard materials and is gradually increasing its market share by supplying to companies like SMIC [4]. - Dinglong Co. is a key player in the domestic polishing pad market, offering a comprehensive solution that includes polishing liquids, cleaning liquids, and polishing pads, enhancing its competitive edge [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 TrendBank Lithography Industry Conference aims to address the challenges and advancements in lithography technology, materials, and equipment, focusing on enhancing domestic capabilities and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [21][29][30]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place on July 9-10, 2025, in Hefei, Anhui, at the Sheraton Hotel [20]. - It will feature over 20 speakers from the lithography industry, covering advanced lithography technologies, photoresists, and wet electronic chemicals [22]. - The event will include academic discussions and a combination of conference and exhibition formats to foster industry collaboration [23]. Group 2: Key Topics of Discussion - The conference will explore the latest research and application prospects of cutting-edge lithography technologies, including EUV, electron beam lithography, and nanoimprint [21]. - It will analyze the current state and technical bottlenecks of domestic photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, and masks, aiming to improve self-sufficiency and quality [21]. - Discussions will also focus on the challenges and solutions related to the localization of lithography equipment, including development, manufacturing processes, and market conditions [21]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The domestic high-end photoresist self-sufficiency rate is low, with significant gaps in R&D and production technology compared to international standards [28]. - There is a reliance on imports for high-purity and specialty wet electronic chemicals, which poses supply constraints [28]. - The high-precision manufacturing technology for masks is challenging, with key raw materials primarily imported, and the rapid repair and update technology needing improvement [28]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The lithography technology is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, directly impacting chip performance, integration, and production costs [28]. - The conference aims to enhance the autonomous capabilities of the lithography technology and related industries in response to global geopolitical tensions affecting the semiconductor supply chain [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply chain issues and investment opportunities in the semiconductor chemical mechanical polishing (CMP) materials market, particularly focusing on the impact of Taiwan's export controls on the supply of DSTl slurry and the growth potential of CMP materials in the semiconductor industry. Group 1: CMP Slurry Supply Issues - DSTl slurry supply has been suspended due to Taiwan's export control restrictions, with only five months of inventory remaining (267 barrels) [2] - DSTl slurry is critical for the CMP process in semiconductor manufacturing, enhancing wafer flatness and surface quality [2] Group 2: Investment Logic in CMP Materials - The demand for CMP materials is expected to grow rapidly due to advancements in process nodes, increased wiring density, and the transition from 2D NAND to 3D NAND technology [4] - CMP materials account for 7% of the semiconductor manufacturing material costs, with CMP slurry and pads making up 49% and 33% of CMP material costs, respectively [4] - The global CMP materials market is projected to grow from $3.3 billion in 2023 to over $4.2 billion by 2027 [4] Group 3: CMP Pad Market Overview - The global CMP pad market grew from $650 million in 2016 to $1.13 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 11.69% [5] - In China, the CMP pad market increased from 810 million yuan in 2016 to 1.31 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 10.09% [5] - Dow DuPont dominates the global CMP pad market with a 79% share, while domestic company Dinglong has become a key player in China [6] Group 4: CMP Slurry Market Overview - The global CMP slurry market expanded from $1.1 billion in 2016 to $1.43 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 5.39% [7] - The Chinese CMP slurry market grew significantly, from 1.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 12.28% [7] - Major global players in the CMP slurry market include Cabot, Versum Materials, and Dow, with China being the largest demand region [7] Group 5: Domestic Companies in CMP Materials - Dinglong has established itself as the only domestic supplier mastering the entire CMP pad production process, achieving significant breakthroughs in the field [6][12] - Anji Technology, a leading domestic CMP slurry company, reported revenues of 1.075 billion yuan in 2023, capturing a significant market share [22][23] - Shanghai Xinyang and Jiangfeng Electronics are also notable players in the CMP materials sector, focusing on various CMP products [36][37] Group 6: Future Trends and Opportunities - The future of CMP materials is expected to trend towards specialization and customization, providing opportunities for new entrants in the market [8] - Companies focusing on new technologies for polishing liquids, such as those related to SiC, and those mastering upstream particle development are recommended for investment [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the growth style is currently favored, with strong performance in sectors such as communication, computer, and electronics, while the dividend style remains a high-certainty direction [1][2] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is at a historical low valuation, with a latest price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.86, which is lower than 91.23% of the time over the past three years, highlighting its attractive valuation [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index account for 20.42% of the index, with notable companies including Dongwu Securities, Kaiying Network, and Huagong Technology [2] Group 2 - The 500 Quality Growth ETF has shown a recent upward trend, with a 0.31% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - According to Dongwu Securities, the communication sector has a relatively high risk but is currently the strongest trend, while the computer sector has lower risk and greater potential for catch-up [1] - The banking sector is expected to rebound after June, influenced by the timing of mid-year reports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 TrendBank Lithography Industry Conference aims to address the challenges and advancements in lithography technology, materials, and equipment, focusing on enhancing domestic capabilities and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [23][25][26]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place on July 9-10, 2025, at the Sheraton Hotel in Hefei, Anhui, with an expected attendance of 300 participants [14][25]. - The event will feature over 20 speakers from the lithography industry, covering various topics related to advanced lithography technologies and materials [13][15]. - The agenda includes specialized sessions on advanced lithography technology, photoresists, and wet electronic chemicals, as well as discussions on the current state and future trends of the industry [12][15]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The domestic high-end photoresist supply rate is low, and there is a significant gap in R&D and production technology compared to international standards, affecting the performance and quality needed for advanced chip manufacturing [23][25]. - The high-precision manufacturing technology for masks is challenging, with reliance on imported materials, which poses risks to supply chains [23][25]. - The lithography equipment market is dominated by foreign companies, particularly in high-end lithography machines like EUV, which are difficult to obtain for domestic manufacturers [23][25]. Group 3: Keynote Speakers and Topics - Notable speakers include Xiao Guilin, Vice President of Hubei Dinglong Holdings, who will discuss the development and application trends of advanced packaging PSPI and bonding adhesives [8][12]. - Other topics include the development of nano-imprint and electron beam technologies, and the challenges of hybrid bonding in advanced packaging [7][12]. - The conference will also explore the domestic production of photoresists and the challenges faced in achieving self-sufficiency [12][23]. Group 4: Conference Goals - The conference aims to foster collaboration between academia, research institutions, and industry to accelerate technological innovation and the transformation of research outcomes into practical applications [25]. - It seeks to build a communication bridge for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry, promoting resource integration and complementary advantages [25]. - The event will provide a platform for discussing solutions to enhance the competitiveness of the lithography industry as a whole [25].

Core Insights - Flexible display technology is revolutionizing the display industry by enabling devices to be curved, folded, and rolled, breaking the traditional rigid display limitations [1][17] - The global flexible display market is projected to grow from $23.2 billion in 2024 to over $173 billion by 2031, driven by advancements in 5G, AI, and VR technologies [1][17] - The flexible OLED segment is expected to see significant growth, with global shipments estimated at approximately 617 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [21] Industry Overview - Flexible displays are made from soft materials and are characterized by low energy consumption, lightweight, durability, and shape variability [2][7] - The main types of flexible displays include bendable, foldable, rollable, and stretchable displays, with bendable and foldable displays already seeing large-scale applications in consumer electronics [2][4] Technology Landscape - The leading technology for flexible displays is flexible OLED, known for its high contrast, wide viewing angles, and rapid response times [4][6] - Other technologies include flexible LCD, electronic paper, quantum dot LEDs, and Micro-LEDs, with flexible OLED being the most widely adopted [4][6] Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific region dominates the flexible display market, accounting for over 65% of the global market share, with China, South Korea, and Japan as key contributors [17] - The flexible AMOLED market share in smartphones is expected to rise from 28% in 2022 to 40% in 2024, driven by the demand for high-end smartphone models [19][21] Competitive Landscape - Samsung is the leading global supplier of flexible OLED displays, while BOE Technology Group is the largest producer in China, having broken the international monopoly in 2017 [23] - Chinese companies like BOE, Visionox, Tianma, and TCL Huaxing have made significant technological advancements, enhancing their competitiveness and gradually reducing Samsung's market dominance [23]