Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Tianfu Communication's performance meets expectations, with optimism regarding contributions from new products [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 to be between 1.88 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.83 billion to 2.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.19% to 60.40% [1] Market Conditions - Anticipation of accelerated appreciation of the RMB in Q4 2025 may further exacerbate the negative impact of exchange losses on the company's performance [1] - The company's core products are in a generational transition period, with customer ordering patterns and upstream material supply significantly affecting quarterly performance [1] Competitive Position - The company is leading in the 1.6T and CPO layout, with deep binding to top-tier customers, positioning it to benefit from the release of industry demand [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.88-2.15 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60%, driven by the acceleration of the AI industry and global data center construction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2.015 billion yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter net profit is estimated to be between 416 million and 684 million yuan, with a median of 550 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.9% [1] - Financial expenses have increased year-on-year due to exchange losses, which negatively impacted profit growth [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for high-speed optical devices is expected to grow steadily due to the rapid development of the AI industry and the construction of global data centers [1] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the upcoming release of NVIDIA's GB300 system and the associated demand for 1.6T optical modules [2] - The company has established a strong position in the CPO market, with plans to develop new products suitable for CPO applications [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with the first phase expected to be operational by mid-2024 and the second phase already completed [3] - Future capacity adjustments will be made based on customer demand, which is anticipated to enhance revenue and profit growth [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 2.01 billion yuan, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 3.19 billion and 4.18 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company maintains a leading position in the 1.6T and CPO sectors, with strong ties to key customers, indicating potential for significant benefits from industry demand [3]

Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow include Tianfu Communication (748 million), Zhongji Xuchuang (677 million), and Xinyi Sheng (659 million) [1] - The sectors represented among the top inflow stocks include communication equipment, non-metal materials, aerospace, and software development [2][3] - Notable stock performances include Tianfu Communication with a 2.95% increase, Zhongji Xuchuang with a 1.11% increase, and Walden Materials with a 6.72% increase [2][3] Group 2 - The highest capital inflow was observed in Tianfu Communication with 748 million, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang with 677 million and Xinyi Sheng with 659 million [1] - Other significant stocks with capital inflow include Aerospace Electronics (593 million), Xinwei Communication (562 million), and Runze Technology (526 million) [1][2] - The stock with the highest percentage increase is Tiantong Co., Ltd. with a 10.03% rise, followed by Jiu Ding New Materials with a 10% increase [3]

22 January 2026 | 1:28AM HKT Equity Research TFC Optical (300394.SZ): 1.6T Optical engines sequential ramp up ahead; 4Q midpoint NI guidance lower-than-expected on near-term TFC Optical announced 2025 net income guidance at Rmb1.88bn~Rmb2.15bn, or +40%~60% YoY, suggesting 4Q25 NI at Rmb416m~Rmb685m, or midpoint at Rmb551m. The 4Q NI guidance is generally in line with our estimates, while the midpoint is 15% below our previous estimates, and we attribute it to the tight supply of EML chipset in 4Q considerin ...

Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow include Aerospace Electronics (8.98 billion), Tianfu Communication (7.17 billion), and Zhongji Xuchuang (6.63 billion) [1] - Aerospace Electronics experienced a price increase of 8.1%, while Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang saw increases of 3.85% and 1.33% respectively [2] - Other notable stocks with substantial capital inflow include Woer Nuclear Materials (5.31 billion), Jiuding New Materials (4.75 billion), and China Nuclear Engineering (4.37 billion) [1][2] Group 2 - Jiuding New Materials had a significant price increase of 10%, while Zhejiang Wenlian and China Shipbuilding also saw increases of 10% and 1.96% respectively [2][3] - The energy sector is represented by China Petroleum with a capital inflow of 2.85 billion and a price increase of 2.85% [3] - Companies like Jushi Group and Goldwind Technology also showed strong performance with capital inflows of 2.78 billion and 2.73 billion, and price increases of 10.01% and 4.44% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance expectations in the optical module CPO sector are driving the rise of the AI sector in the ChiNext market, with significant gains in stocks like Tianfu Communication and AI application companies like Deepin Technology [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext AI sector rose over 1%, with Tianfu Communication up 6%, Zhongji Xuchuang up over 2%, and Xinyi Sheng up over 1% [1] - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) saw a 2% increase, with real-time transactions exceeding 150 million yuan and over 1 billion yuan added in the past five days [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Tianfu Communication announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 1.881 billion yuan and 2.150 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [1] - The growth is attributed to the accelerated development of the AI industry and the ongoing global data center construction, which has driven stable demand for high-speed optical device products [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Tianfeng Securities expresses optimism about investment opportunities in the core players of the computing power supply chain, driven by AI-related demand [2] - The communication industry has seen a low increase in stock prices despite strong earnings forecasts, indicating potential for capital inflow during the earnings disclosure period [2] - The ChiNext AI ETF is positioned to benefit directly from the commercialization of AI technology, with approximately 60% of its portfolio in computing power and 40% in AI applications [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for 2025 aligns with market expectations, driven by new product contributions and the growth of the AI industry and global data center construction [8] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 18.8-21.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60% [8] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the upcoming demand for 1.6T optical modules and has established a strong partnership with NVIDIA [8] - The company is also well-positioned in the commercial year of CPO (Chiplet-based Processing Unit) and is actively developing new products for this market [8] - The overseas production capacity is sufficient and gradually increasing, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 20.1 billion, RMB 31.9 billion, and RMB 41.8 billion respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,252 million in 2024 to RMB 10,669 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.48% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,015 million in 2025 to RMB 4,179 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 31.03% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.73 in 2024 to RMB 5.38 in 2027 [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.82 in 2025 to 35.11 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication, a leading company in optical modules, has shown impressive performance driven by multiple favorable factors including rising storage chip prices and the strengthening of the AI computing power industry chain, contributing to the upward trend in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices [1] Market Performance - On January 22, A-shares opened higher with all three major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext which increased by over 1%. The semiconductor and AI computing power sectors continued to strengthen, while gold stocks experienced significant adjustments [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened higher but later declined, with most tech stocks falling [1] - As of the report, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.29% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 0.12% [2] Bond Market - The bond market saw a decline in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.05%, the 10-year contract down by 0.04%, and shorter-term contracts also experiencing slight declines [2][3] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate increasing by over 3%, and other commodities like asphalt, polysilicon, and fuel oil rising by 2%. However, precious metals like platinum and palladium saw declines of over 2% [3][5] Company Performance - Tianfu Communication, as a leader in optical devices, maintained growth with a profit forecast for 2025 expected to be between 1.881 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [7] - Cambridge Technology, a rising star in optical modules, anticipates a profit of 252 million to 278 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.19% to 66.79% [8] Sector Trends - The AI computing power industry chain is showing strength, with companies like Longxin Zhongke rising by 8% and Tianfu Communication by over 4% [6] - The military industry sector experienced a surge, with companies like Triangle Defense hitting the daily limit up and others like Beimo High-Tech and Aerospace Technology rising over 6% [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the AI sector, particularly driven by the optical module CPO segment, with notable stock increases such as Tianfu Communication rising by 6% and Deepin Technology leading with a 7% gain [1][5] - The AI application sector is showing active performance, with multiple stocks, including Chinese Online and BlueFocus, experiencing gains of over 2% [1][5] - The entrepreneurial board AI ETF (159363) has seen a 2% increase in trading, with real-time transactions exceeding 150 million CNY and over 1 billion CNY added in the past five days [1][5] Group 2 - Tianfu Communication has released a profit forecast for 2025, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders between 1.881 billion CNY and 2.150 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [1][5] - The growth is attributed to the accelerated development of the AI industry and the ongoing construction of global data centers, which have driven stable demand for high-speed optical device products [1][5] - The company’s continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement in smart manufacturing have also contributed to revenue growth across its active and passive product lines [1][5] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities expresses a strong outlook on investment opportunities within the core segments of the computing power supply chain, driven by AI, indicating potential for significant business growth [2][6] - The report emphasizes the high prosperity of the overseas computing power supply chain, with ongoing financial reports reflecting strong AI-related demand [2][6] - Industrial chain fundamentals are resonating strongly, particularly in the optical module sector, which is expected to attract more attention during the earnings disclosure period [2][6] Group 4 - The entrepreneurial board AI ETF is structured with approximately 60% of its portfolio focused on computing power (primarily optical modules) and about 40% on AI applications, representing both core computing power and true AI application sectors [7]

买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,939 | 3,252 | 5,182 | 8,108 | 10,669 | | 同比（%） | 62.04 | 67.74 | 59.35 | 56.48 | 31.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 729.88 | 1,343.52 | 2,014.97 | 3,189.18 | 4,178.85 | | 同比（%） | 81.14 | 84.07 | 49.98 | 58.27 | 31.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.94 | 1.73 | 2.59 | 4.10 | 5.38 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 201.02 | 109.21 | 72.82 | 46.01 | 35.11 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通信设备 天孚通信（300394） 20 ...