Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in 2026, but coal prices may perform better than in 2025 due to policy support, leading to improved profitability and dividend expectations for listed companies [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2026, policies and import factors may limit domestic supply, with a projected net increase in coal production of 28 million tons, corresponding to a growth rate of approximately 0.6% [2] - Domestic coal production is expected to decline year-on-year from July to November 2025 due to stricter safety regulations and overproduction checks [2] - Coal imports are anticipated to decrease by 19 to 20 million tons in 2026, influenced by production cuts in countries like Indonesia and domestic "anti-involution" policies [2] Demand Dynamics - The growth in demand is expected to be limited, with a slight year-on-year decrease in thermal coal consumption of about -0.2% in 2026 [3] - The construction and steel sectors will continue to be affected by real estate activity, leading to a decline in coal consumption, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow [3] - Chemical industry coal consumption may see a growth rate of 6% due to new coal chemical projects and widening oil-coal price differentials [3] Price Outlook - The supply pressure is expected to ease, allowing for a slight upward adjustment in coal prices, with a projected increase of 5 to 7% in the average domestic coal price for 2026 [4] - The bottom of coal prices is expected to rise due to policy support and improvements in the global coal supply-demand balance [4] Investment Strategy - The anticipated rise in coal prices is expected to improve the performance of listed companies, with dividend yields likely to see a slight increase if dividend ratios are maintained [6] - Investment opportunities are suggested along three main lines: 1. Long-term holdings in dividend-paying thermal coal leaders [6] 2. Companies benefiting from capacity expansion and favorable policies [6] 3. Companies with high elasticity that may benefit from price expectation discrepancies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The employment report for December 2025 indicates that both the non-farm payroll additions and the unemployment rate in the U.S. were below expectations, reflecting a balanced state in the job market after six years of adjustment since the pandemic [1] Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, with new non-farm jobs primarily concentrated in specific service sectors [1] - The total non-farm employment additions for the year 2025 were 584,000, significantly lower than the levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The current job market is characterized by "low hiring + low layoffs," suggesting a stable employment environment [1] Economic Advisory Insights - Due to unconventional data disclosures by Trump, there is a recommendation to closely monitor news and research from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts during the January meeting, with a possibility of one more rate cut during Powell's term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in 2026, but coal prices may perform better than in 2025 due to policy support, leading to improved profitability and dividend expectations for listed companies [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The coal industry is projected to continue experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand in 2026 [1] - Policy support is anticipated to positively influence coal prices, resulting in better performance compared to 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Listed companies in the coal sector are expected to see improvements in profitability and dividend expectations [1] - There may be short-term opportunities in the sector due to market style rotation and differences in industry expectations as the outlook improves [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Continued focus is recommended on leading companies with industry dividends, those with alpha, and targets with potential earnings elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in 2026, but coal prices may perform better than in 2025 due to policy support, leading to improved profitability and dividend expectations for listed companies [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The coal industry is projected to continue a dual weakness in supply and demand in 2026 [1] - Policy support is anticipated to positively influence coal prices compared to 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Listed companies in the coal sector are expected to see improvements in profitability and dividend expectations [1] - There may be short-term opportunities in the sector due to market style rotation and differences in industry expectations [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Continued focus is recommended on leading companies with industry dividends, those with alpha, and targets with potential earnings elasticity [1]

中信证券研报指出，墨西哥宣布从2026年1月1日开始，对没有和墨西哥签署自由贸易协定的国家加征关 税。我们认为此次墨西哥加征关税主要受影响国家为中国和韩国为代表的亚洲经济体。我们测算墨西哥 加征关税覆盖的商品约占中国对墨西哥出口的45%左右，大约影响中国整体出口约1%的商品。墨西哥 此次关税调整可以看作是向美国纳"投名状"，提示关注其他发达经济体尤其是加拿大受美国影响跟进调 整对华关税的可能性。从行业层面看，综合考虑对墨西哥出口敞口和加征关税税率，我们预计我国汽车 产业链、贱金属制品、机械设备出口可能相对受影响较大。财政部、国家税务总局1月9日发布公告调整 光伏、电池产品出口退税政策，我们认为这是出于减少贸易摩擦以及产业升级需要，或对2026年一季度 相关商品出口增速构成一定支撑，预计化学品、塑料制品、服装、机械和电气产品等在未来可能会有跟 进调整出口退税的措施。宏观经济运行方面，2025年12月PPI表现略超市场预期，CPI同比连续4个月回 升至+0.8%，核心CPI同比维持在+1.2%的高位，基本符合市场预期。本周市场关注12月中国物价数据， 下周建议关注中国12月金融数据和进出口数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in 2026, but coal prices may perform better than in 2025 due to policy support, leading to improved profitability and dividend expectations for listed companies [1] Industry Outlook - The coal sector may experience a temporary opportunity due to market style rotation or differences in industry expectations as sentiment improves [1] - Continued focus is recommended on industry leaders, companies with alpha, and those with potential earnings elasticity [1]

36氪获悉，中信证券研报指出，1月9日，财政部、税务总局公告调整电池产品出口退税政策。我们认 为，本次政策是国家坚定推进"反内卷"、防止"内卷外化"的具体举措，政策连续性较强。从影响来看， 对于短期政策设置退税税率梯度式下降和过渡期的安排，企业可通过电池价格调整对冲影响，同时海外 需求有望迎来抢出口局面；中长期来看，在海外拥有电池产能的中国头部电池企业有望进一步提升全球 竞争力、获取更多的海外市场份额和更高的盈利水平。继续推荐中国头部电池企业。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月12日，中信证券研报指出，1月9日，财政部、税务总局公告调整电池产品出口退税政 策。我们认为，本次政策是国家坚定推进"反内卷"、防止"内卷外化"的具体举措，政策连续性较强。从 影响来看，对于短期政策设置退税税率梯度式下降和过渡期的安排，企业可通过电池价格调整对冲影 响，同时海外需求有望迎来抢出口局面；中长期来看，在海外拥有电池产能的中国头部电池企业有望进 一步提升全球竞争力、获取更多的海外市场份额和更高的盈利水平。继续推荐中国头部电池企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes at CITIC Securities are not indicative of a strategic contraction or business failure, but rather a necessary step to fulfill commitments made during the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities, now known as CITIC Securities South China, and to comply with regulatory requirements [1][2][3] Group 1: Background and Regulatory Context - The changes stem from the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities, which requires clear delineation of business operations between the parent company and its subsidiaries to avoid internal competition [2][3] - CITIC Securities has historically followed this model after acquiring other brokerages, allowing subsidiaries to operate in specific regions while the parent company withdraws from those areas [2][3] - The recent approval for business delineation for CITIC Securities South China limits its margin financing and securities lending operations to five provinces in South China, necessitating the parent company to remove these areas from its own operations [2][3] Group 2: Regulatory Feedback and Clarifications - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified a discrepancy in CITIC Securities' application, noting that the board resolution only specified the removal of "securities brokerage" from the five provinces, while the application sought to remove "margin financing" as well [3][4] - The CSRC's inquiry was not a rejection of the business adjustment but a standard procedure to ensure internal decision-making processes are complete and compliant [3][4] - The overall conclusion is that these actions represent the final steps of the acquisition process rather than a signal of a shift in market conditions [3][4] Group 3: Business Scope Changes - The approved changes include a reduction in the scope of securities underwriting and a modification of the margin financing business to be limited to specific regions [7][24] - CITIC Securities South China is required to complete the necessary business registration changes within six months and must apply for a new business license within 15 days of receiving the updated business registration [7][24] - The company must also amend its articles of association in accordance with the new business scope and report these changes to the local regulatory authority [8][24]

中信证券研报称，年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎 资金的追涨加速了行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布 仓方向。从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、 小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状 态。不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合 降低波动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的 方向。在配置上，建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合 波动。 ...