【导读】印尼股市再度触发熔断 MSCI表示，鉴于市场对印尼股票自由流通股数量和整体市场准入的持续担忧，将暂时冻结印尼股票指 数调整，并警告若5月前无改善，可能将其从新兴市场指数降级。 MSCI在声明中指出，印尼市场长期面临流通股比例过低、少数股东控制大量股份以及流动性不足等结 构性问题。该公司被警告，若5月前未能在市场透明度和监管方面取得显著进展，可能将其从新兴市场 指数降级。 印尼交易所上市部门主管I Gede Nyoman Yetna在周三表示，交易所承诺响应MSCI对提升市场透明度的 要求，并将与该公司协作以寻求共识。交易所还计划就合理的流通股比例水平征询市场参与者意见，并 将与KSEI合作，提供更为清晰的股东结构分类数据。 中国基金报记者 李智 印尼股市再度触发熔断。 1月29日，印尼股市开盘后延续昨日暴跌走势，印尼雅加达综合指数跌幅迅速扩大至8%，触发市场暂停 交易。 当地时间1月29日09:26:01，印尼证券交易所交易系统实施了临时交易暂停措施。交易将于印尼中部标 准时间09:56:01恢复，交易时间表不变。 恢复交易后，印尼股市继续下跌势头。截至发稿，印尼雅加达综合指数跌幅扩大至9.64%。 ...

格隆汇1月29日｜高盛集团分析师将印尼股市评级下调至"减持"，并警告称，明晟公司（MSCI）对印尼 市场可投资性的担忧，可能导致该国市场被降级为前沿市场，从而引发逾130亿美元的资金外流。高盛 预测，在印尼被从新兴市场重新分类的极端情况下，跟踪MSCI指数的被动型基金可能抛售高达78亿美 元的资产。如果富时罗素公司重新评估其自由流通量方法和市场状态，可能还会进一步触发56亿美元的 资金外流。 高盛分析师表示："我们预计（未来）还会有更多被动抛售，并将这一事态发展视为一个将阻碍市场表 现的潜在压力。"此外，鉴于该地区的主动型基金经理对印尼市场配置过高，可能降级带来的潜在压 力，加上市场压力上升和流动性可能减少，很可能会促使纯多头投资者调整投资组合。这也可能引发对 冲基金的投机性资金流动。 ...

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged during Jerome Powell's remaining term, expressing a more balanced view on the economic outlook [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept the overnight lending rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a steady pace and that the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [1] - Gundlach believes that the interest rate cuts under Powell have reached a bottom, with the current benchmark rate successfully returning to a "balanced range" near the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield [1] Group 2 - Gundlach asserts that maintaining the current policy will be the main theme in the upcoming meetings before Powell's term ends in 2026, advocating for a 30% to 40% allocation in unhedged international stocks due to potential benefits from local currencies appreciating against the dollar [3] - Major investment banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have differing views on the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan's chief economist suggesting no cuts in 2026, while Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for rate cuts to mid-2026 [3][4] - Goldman Sachs expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September 2026, arguing that while rates need to remain stable in the short term, there is room for minor adjustments as economic growth picks up and inflation cools [4]

I know working professionals who keep complaining that they are struggling financially despite rising salaries. I checked the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and found out that the average price of a pound of white bread has risen from $1.55 in January 2020 to $1.83 in January 2025. It is a jump of more than 18% within a span of three years. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which calculates the value of the USD relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen to 96.2, its lowest point since ...

据知情人士透露，本周卸任高盛集团贵金属交易主管的Benjamin Binet-Laisne，将加盟摩科瑞能源集团 （Mercuria）。这是摩科瑞在金属领域最新的一项重量级人事任命，该公司以石油和天然气交易为人熟 知。自2024年引入前托克集团金属联席主管科Kostas Bintas以来，摩科瑞已将铜、铝等金属交易业务扩 展至约150人规模。在地缘政治风险上升、投资者撤离货币和美债的背景下，贵金属投资需求出现一波 激增，推动各方加快组建交易团队。知情人士称，顶级大宗商品交易商托克和贡沃去年已引入贵金属交 易团队，而竞争对手IXM和摩科瑞也在持续招兵买马。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

总体而言，高盛集团首席执行官苏德巍(David Solomon)公开表示，展望2026年，港股IPO市场有望迎来 强劲复苏，并将成为"非常好的一年"。高盛方面认为，若宏观环境保持相对稳定、市场流动性持续改 善，香港2026年在IPO数量和融资规模方面均有望实现明显回升。 值得注意的是，港股IPO热潮涌动之下，业务量的激增也导致"赶工"现象频频出现。部分内地企业为启 动境内的监管审批流程，出现了向港交所提交不完整的"占位"申请、上市申请文件质量低劣且审查不 足、保荐人对监管问询反馈滞后且不到位、发售流程执行混乱等问题，引起了市场关注。 港交所集团行政总裁陈翊庭在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受媒体采访时表示，近期港股IPO出现质 量不佳的原因，是IPO数量突然上升带来的兴奋情绪，导致资源与协作面临压力。IPO质量绝对"不能妥 协"，这是维护市场信任的基础，须确保每宗上市申请的质量及尽职调查到位。近期已就部分质量欠佳 的IPO申请发出的警示，是在提醒专业人士速度必须与质量并行。 （上接1版） 上述A股公司普遍在公告中表示，赴港上市是为了推动公司全球化战略深入实施、拓宽融资渠道、加速 发展海外业务。在出海趋势下，港股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rally in base metals may face challenges due to rising prices and optimistic sentiment conflicting with declining demand from manufacturers, particularly in China [1]. Group 1: Demand Trends - Goldman Sachs' recent survey indicates that order books at fabricators have decreased by 10% to 30%, as industries such as consumer electronics and hardware reduce their orders [2]. - There is a noted slowdown in grid orders, which are crucial for copper consumption in China, the largest economy in Asia [2]. Group 2: Price Movements - The LMEX Index, which tracks six major materials on the London Metal Exchange, has increased by approximately 7% this year, nearing the record set in 2022 [3]. - Benchmark copper prices rose by 0.6%, settling at $13,086.50 per ton on the LME, close to the record established earlier this month [3]. - Aluminum has reached a three-year high in London, while other metals, excluding lead, have also seen price increases [3].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 高盛测算，在MSCI评估市场准入情况后，印尼股市在良性情景下可能面临22亿美元的被动资金流出， 在极端情景下这一数字可能高达78亿美元。 ...

Goldman Sachs Shuffles Wealth Leadership, Adds Wealth Execs to Top Management Committee - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.---# Goldman Sachs Shuffles Wealth Leadership, Adds Wealth Execs to Top Management Committee## The changes ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing national debt in the U.S. is a significant concern, with experts warning of potential economic strain and a "debt death spiral" if growth does not improve [1][4]. Group 1: National Debt Concerns - U.S. national debt has surged from $7 trillion to over $38 trillion in the last 15 years, with projections indicating it could reach the low 40s in the coming decade if current trends continue [3][5]. - The reliance on foreign buyers for debt financing is diminishing, which could lead to Americans bearing a larger burden of the debt [2][6]. - Experts like Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio emphasize that the current debt levels are unsustainable and could lead to currency erosion and inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Adjustments - Solomon warns that without stronger economic growth, the U.S. may face a painful adjustment period [3]. - The need for aggressive fiscal stimulus has become entrenched in the U.S. economy, making it challenging to cut spending [2]. - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that new legislation could add over $5.5 trillion to the national debt by 2034 [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies Amid Economic Uncertainty - Experts recommend diversifying investments, particularly into gold, which is viewed as a safe haven during economic turmoil [8][9]. - Real estate is also highlighted as a protective asset class during inflationary periods, with property values and rental income typically rising [12][13]. - Alternative investments, such as art, are gaining attention for their potential to provide unique portfolio diversification and returns [22][24].