高盛预计全球长期利率将继续上行，上行速度过快或引发系统性风险。 5月25日，高盛的宏观交易员Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli和Rikin Shah发布研报表示，本周市场焦点集中在 长端利率。尽管美国、欧洲、英国、日本各自面临不同压力，但背后的全球共性非常明确，财政赤字高 企、债券供给增加，而结构性买家却在减少，导致长端利率成为市场主要的压力"释放阀"。 高盛警告，除非财政或货币政策出现重大转变，全球长期利率正继续上行，利率上行速度将至关重要， 若上行加速，可能冲击股市与汇市，成为潜在"系统性风险的触发器"。 同时，财政部长贝森特口风也变了，年初还大力支持财政整顿，现在却发生明显转变。 一开始美国政府要把财政赤字控制在GDP的3%。结果现在甩锅称这是上届政府搞出来的烂摊子，甚至 强调"我们没让赤字继续恶化"就是政绩。高盛指出，看起来美国未来维持7%的赤字可能常态化。 目前，美国是所有发达国家里"增长弱、通胀高"这对组合最差的，美国例外论也逐渐消退，使得长端利 率和美元汇率成为"泄压阀"，所以市场开始重新定价长端利率。 如何补救？有什么办法能刹住长端利率继续涨？高盛列了5种可能的方式： (i) 降 ...

24日，据追风交易台消息，高盛认为，日本长期国债收益率飙升的核心原因在于供需严重失衡。寿险公司因久期缺口扩大而需求锐减，加上政府财政担忧 加剧以及资产密集型再保险交易引发的抛售，共同构筑了长期国债市场的抛压。这些因素导致日本国债市场买家稀少，流动性极差，即便日本央行持有大 量国债也无力回天。 高盛还强调，虽然日本国债抛售目前尚未传导至日本股市或汇市，但其对全球债市的溢出效应已愈发显著。数据显示，自今年年初以来，30年期日本国债 已为G4（美、欧、日、英）国家收益率贡献了约80个基点的上行压力，成为最大的看跌动能来源。这意味着，过去一个月美国国债收益率的飙升，很可 能大部分是日本长期国债市场动荡的"副产品"。 展望未来，日本国债市场的波动性仍将持续。尽管日本政府可能考虑减少长期国债发行或回购，但高盛认为，若无实质性的宏观经济政策应对高通胀，这 种波动将反复出现。日本央行的货币政策走向，特别是其量化紧缩路径的调整，将成为短期内影响市场走势的关键。 日本长期国债收益率为何飙升？ 高盛日本利率交易员Yusuke Ochi指出，日本长期国债收益率近期急剧上涨，主要原因在于供需平衡的显著恶化，这包括寿险公司需求的变化以及 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS) stock closed at $598.54, showing a slight increase of +0.05% compared to the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's decline of 0.67% [1] - Over the past month, GS shares have risen by 9.69%, surpassing the Finance sector's growth of 6.27% but lagging behind the S&P 500's increase of 10.65% [1] Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs is set to release its earnings report on July 16, 2025, with projected earnings of $9.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13.92% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $13.71 billion, indicating a growth of 7.69% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Annual Estimates - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $44.41 per share and revenue of $55.52 billion, representing increases of +9.55% and +3.76% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a positive outlook for Goldman Sachs' business trends [3] Valuation Metrics - Goldman Sachs has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.47, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 14.72, indicating a valuation discount [5] - The company currently has a PEG ratio of 0.81, compared to the Financial - Investment Bank industry's average PEG ratio of 1.2 [6] Industry Ranking - The Financial - Investment Bank industry is currently ranked 204 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 18% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates stocks based on estimate changes, shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

金十数据5月23日讯，汇丰的一项调查显示，由于关税和贸易的不确定性，接受调查的企业中有三分之 二已经经历了成本上升。企业预计，短期和长期成本都将进一步上升，并预计供应链延误将对收入造成 冲击。这促使超过四分之三的企业重新思考它们的长期商业模式。汇丰全球贸易解决方案的策略师 Vivek Ramachandran表示："战略适应的必要性是明确的。驾驭这种情况不仅需要灵活性，还需要强有 力的合作伙伴关系，以确保在不断变化的全球经济中持续增长。" 高盛：调查显示，企业已开始经历关税带来的成本上升 ...

22 May 2025 | 9:39PM JST Japan Economics Analyst Is China Exporting Deflation? (Ota) Tomohiro Ota +81(3)4587-9984 | tomohiro.ota@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Akira Otani +81(3)45 ...

打破恶性循环：黄金、加密货币和非美国股票崛起 Privorotsky认为，市场可能陷入围绕财政预算的"反射性循环"。如果财政支出水平延续且美国经济保持 韧性，压力将集中在两个关键"排气阀"上：长期利率（不直接受美联储控制）和美元。 打破美债-美股恶性循环的出路是什么？ 近日，由于市场对美国财政前景的担忧与日俱增，在周三糟糕的20年期国债拍卖结束后，市场局势急转 直下。 德意志银行分析师George Saravelos指出，目前有两种解决方案：一是对特朗普的巨额减税法案进行"重 大修订"，实施更严格的财政政策（意味着更高税收，甚至可能导致经济衰退）；二是使美元贬值，增 长美债对外国买家的吸引力。 高盛交易部门主管Rich Privorotsky随后进一步表示，美债收益率飙升已对整体风险资产造成压力，而这 场危机最终可能演变为美元贬值和非传统资产（如黄金、加密货币）的崛起。 Privorotsky此前曾论述称，收益率与股市之间的关系是非线性的——一旦前者超过某个阈值，就会开始 对后者产生实质影响。 "关税相当于一种新税收。利率更高，而非更低…很难说基本面增长将受益，临时的需求前 置现在大多也已结束。波动性已被重置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment banking landscape is evolving, with Evercore Inc. and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gaining investor attention due to their distinct service offerings in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and wealth management [1]. Investment Banking Sector Overview - The long-term outlook for the investment banking sector remains favorable, but near-term momentum has moderated due to market volatility and concerns over economic slowdown and inflation [2]. - The anticipated recovery in M&A activity is expected to occur in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Goldman Sachs Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a leadership position in global banking and markets, with a 24% year-over-year increase in IB revenues in 2024, driven by corporate debt and equity issuances [3]. - However, IB revenues declined by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025 due to market uncertainty and a slowdown in M&A activities [3][4]. - Goldman is strategically exiting its non-core consumer banking business to focus on higher-margin areas like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple [5][6]. - The company has divested several consumer finance businesses to enhance its focus on scalable core businesses [6]. Evercore Analysis - Evercore, while smaller, generates 95.9% of its revenues from Investment Banking and Equities, with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2017 to 2024 [7]. - The company is actively increasing its staff in the IB sector, employing 197 senior managing directors as of March 31, 2025, to support revenue growth [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Goldman shares fell by 0.1%, while Evercore shares dropped by 28.7%, against an industry growth of 0.8% [9]. - Goldman is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 12.72X, higher than its five-year median of 10.17X, while Evercore trades at 18.06X, above its five-year median of 12.40X [11]. - Evercore's valuation is at a premium compared to the industry average of 13.73X, while Goldman is trading at a discount, making it a better choice for value investors [14]. Dividend Yield - Evercore has a dividend yield of 1.43%, while Goldman has a higher yield of 2.02%, both exceeding the industry average of 1.12% [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goldman suggests year-over-year revenue increases of 7.7% and 6% for Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, with earnings growth of 13.9% and 20.9% [18]. - Conversely, Evercore's estimates indicate a revenue decline of 7.1% and 1.2% for the same quarters, with earnings declines of 22.7% and 3.4% [20]. Strategic Positioning - Despite near-term challenges, Goldman is well-positioned with an increased backlog and diversified revenue base, providing resilience that Evercore lacks during volatility [21]. - Goldman’s focus on high-return segments and divestitures is improving operational focus and profitability [22].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is consolidating its three separate investment banking businesses in Asia into a single unit to enhance regional deal advisory and capital market capabilities [1] Group 1: Details of the Restructuring - Iain Drayto will lead the newly unified Asia Pacific investment banking division, collaborating with executives in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand for seamless operations [2] - The new structure aims to enable holistic client engagement, effective deployment of expertise, and increased career opportunities for employees [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus - Goldman Sachs is refocusing on its core strengths in investment banking and trading while scaling back its consumer banking business [4] - The firm has finalized an agreement to transfer its GM credit card business to Barclays and completed the sale of GreenSky, reallocating capital towards higher-margin businesses [4] Group 3: Market Performance - Over the last six months, shares of Goldman Sachs have decreased by 0.2%, contrasting with the industry's growth of 0.8% [7] Group 4: Industry Trends - Other major banks, such as HSBC and Barclays, are also restructuring to optimize operations and enhance efficiency, with HSBC focusing on boosting its investment banking operations in Asia and the Middle East [9][10] - Barclays plans to reduce capital allocation to its investment bank as part of a three-year plan to save £2 billion and redeploy capital towards more profitable domestic businesses [11]

智通财经APP注意到，随着美股投资者的注意力从贸易紧张局势缓和转向债券收益率上升的威胁，华尔街两大交易部门建议同时利用这两种趋势获利。 瑞银集团和高盛集团的策略是双管齐下：买入消费类股票，随着特朗普政府降低关税方面的强硬言论并施压零售商不要涨价，这类股票将继续跑赢大盘；同 时，做空住房等对利率敏感的市场领域，因为对债务和美国联邦赤字的担忧推高了美债收益率。 贸易紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪降低了全面贸易战的不确定性，后者可能会将经济推入衰退并损害美国消费者。随着贸易战降级，标普500指数已经收复了4月 初以来的跌幅。 与此同时，美国国债下跌，收益率上升，因为随着国会谈判包括延长特朗普减税政策在内的预算协议，对美国财政前景的担忧日益加剧。 瑞银宏观股票策略主管Aaron Nordvik在给客户的报告中写道，如果我们在关税和税收改革方面得到更多好消息，消费类股票还有上涨空间。 周三，投资者对美国国债收益率上升的担忧显现出来，令人失望的美债拍卖结果推动债券收益率飙升至4月市场暴跌期间的水平，投资者随后纷纷抛售美 股。 高盛交易部门写道："长期利率上升将同时给购房者带来挑战，因为抵押贷款利率上升。" 自5月中旬以来，由于市 ...

金十数据5月22日讯，5月20日，廖岷副部长分别会见美前财长、华平投资集团主席盖特纳，国际金融协 会总裁安德慕，高盛集团首席经济学家兼全球投资研究部主管哈祖斯，就中美和全球经济形势、两国宏 观经济政策及中美经贸关系等议题交换意见。廖岷副部长重点介绍了中国经济的增长前景和促进高质量 发展的政策措施，强调中国经济的稳定发展，将为世界经济增长注入更多确定性。 廖岷会见美商界和国际金融机构代表 ...