Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' top trader Mark Wilson warns that the three core narratives of the bull market have faced skepticism, leading to the largest "high beta momentum" pullback since the DeepSeek incident [3][6] - Concerns about the sustainability and pace of AI spending have emerged, particularly with increased credit financing and unclear investment returns [4][6] - The market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for December and a dovish policy into 2026 has wavered due to conflicting statements from several Fed officials [5][6] Group 2 - Economic activity faces challenges, with deteriorating conditions for low-income consumers and weak employment trends raising concerns about a K-shaped recovery and the outlook for 2026 [6][11] - The correlation between hedge fund exposure and "momentum" factors has reached its highest level in five years, indicating crowded trades in more aggressive market areas [6][10] - Wilson predicts that signals from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report will be sufficient to drive AI stocks higher again, despite growing concerns about power supply issues in Western countries that could hinder AI competition [9][10] Group 3 - Historical comparisons of the current tech cycle to past cycles have limitations, with Wilson suggesting that the current AI boom resembles the tech surge of 1997-1998 rather than the bubble phase of 1999-2000, indicating potential for further growth [10] - Concerns about over-leverage are raised, as 29% of this year's dollar credit supply is related to AI, prompting questions about the sustainability of this trend [10] - The debate over broader economic conditions will continue, with the reopening of the government and the end of quantitative tightening complicating market visibility in the coming weeks [11][12]

That didn’t take too long. Several major asset managers are crossing asset milestones in their ETF businesses amid a record year for inflows industrywide. Capital Group’s three-year-old line of ETFs just hit a total of $100 billion in assets under management. Of course, no one comes close to BlackRock’s iShares or Vanguard, which at $3.9 trillion and $3.7 trillion are the dominant players in the market. But the rising profile of Capital Group, and other semi-recent entrants like T. Rowe Price, highlights ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks are establishing a new "bull-bear divide" as market sentiment becomes increasingly cautious [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Technical Levels - Goldman Sachs identifies 6725 points as a critical technical inflection point for the S&P 500 index; a breach could signal the end of a positive market trend that has persisted since February [2] - JPMorgan warns that the S&P 500 index faces key support levels at 6700, 6631, and 6525 points; breaking these levels could confirm a downward trend, potentially lasting until early 2026 [3][9] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices have also breached short-term momentum thresholds, indicating a potential for significant selling pressure from algorithm-driven commodity trading advisors (CTAs) [7] Group 2: Upcoming Market Events - The market is preparing for significant events, including Nvidia's earnings report, which could lead to a market capitalization fluctuation of up to $300 billion, and the first U.S. government employment report in two and a half months [4] Group 3: Defensive Rotation and Sector Performance - There is a notable shift of funds from growth sectors to defensive sectors, with the VIX index rising above 23 for the fourth time since April, indicating increased market anxiety [11] - In the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, short selling has outpaced long buying, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have seen stronger demand [11] - Despite the defensive shift, overall stock exposure has not significantly decreased, suggesting persistent market volatility [11] Group 4: Momentum Factor and Market Risks - A sharp decline in the momentum factor has been observed, with Goldman Sachs' momentum index experiencing one of its worst trading periods in a decade, raising concerns about potential instability [13] - The report indicates that despite the poor performance of the momentum factor, investor exposure remains high, which could lead to larger-scale deleveraging and asset repricing if selling continues [13]

Avantax Advisory Services Inc. raised its stake in The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS – Free Report) by 8.5% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 25,459 shares of the investment management company’s stock after purchasing an additional 2,001 shares during the period. Avantax Advisory Services Inc.’s holdings in The Goldman Sachs Group were worth $18,019,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Ex ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has obtained exclusive negotiation rights to acquire the Japanese Burger King business, with an expected transaction value of approximately 70 billion yen (around 3.213 billion RMB) [1] - The acquisition discussions are taking place with Affinity Equity Partners, a Hong Kong-based investment fund, regarding its stake in BK Japan Holdings [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the sales revenue of Burger King Japan is projected to grow by 29% year-on-year, reaching 32.2 billion yen [1] - The growth is attributed to the popularity of their signature flame-grilled smoked beef patties [1] Expansion Plans - BK Japan has announced plans to increase the number of its outlets from the current approximately 310 to 600 by the end of 2028, representing a growth of about 93.55% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛表示，随着投资者开始担忧日本推出的刺激规模可能大于预期，日本的财政风 险溢价正在回归，这将给长期国债和日元带来压力。该行策略师指出，市场越来越担心日本政府可能会 放弃其"年度预算收支平衡"承诺以及长期财政目标。 高盛称："即便最终结果没有想象中那么极端，但市场对财政问题的敏感度明显上升，这意味着任何通 往最终缓和的道路都可能是颠簸的。" 不过他们指出，美元兑日元上行空间"应会受到更强硬口头干预及潜在直接操作风险的限制"。 日本首相高市早苗已释放更激进的财政信号，称其首个刺激计划将成为推动新投资和增长的跳板。据报 道，其政府正在考虑为本财年追加约14万亿日元(910亿美元)预算，规模将超过去年的13.9万亿日元。 日本30年期国债收益率距刷新历史高位仅差几个基点;东京市场周一上午，基准10年期国债收益率升至 1.72%，为2008年以来最高水平。 高盛指出，近期日元走软对利率前景的影响力似乎减弱，日本央行加息以阻止贬值的迹象也在减少。这 部分缘于该央行在耐心等待评估美国关税的滞后影响及日本的薪资前景。 高盛策略师写道，这表明长期收益率的压力可能至少持续至12月中旬，届时日本央行近期政策路 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, particularly the potential oversupply expected later this decade due to significant increases in global LNG export capacity [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global LNG Oversupply**: There is a consensus that the global LNG market will face a significant oversupply later this decade, driven by the largest wave of global LNG export capacity additions [2][4]. - **China's Role**: China, as the largest LNG buyer with a projected 19% market share in 2024, is considered a potential sink for this oversupply. However, it is believed that China will not absorb the excess supply to the extent needed [2][3][4]. - **Demand Projections**: Under a low-gas-price scenario of $5/mmBtu for 2028-2030, China's natural gas demand could be 6% or 29 billion cubic meters per year (Bcm/y) higher than current forecasts over the next five years. Despite this increase, a sizable oversupply is still expected [1][3][4]. - **Infrastructure and Strategy**: Existing infrastructure could support a larger increase in demand, but China's current energy strategy prioritizes domestic energy security, which may limit the extent of gas demand growth [1][3][4]. - **US LNG Export Cancellations**: The likely solution to the anticipated global LNG oversupply is expected to be US LNG export cancellations, particularly as international prices fall below the $5/mmBtu threshold [1][4][73]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Decarbonization Policies**: China's decarbonization efforts post-2030 could lead to a modest increase in the gas share of power generation and industrial energy consumption, potentially adding 57 Bcm/y of gas demand by 2035 [63][65]. - **Gas Demand Growth Multipliers**: The current GDP growth multiplier for gas demand is estimated at 0.6, significantly lower than the historical average of 1.5, indicating weaker than expected gas demand growth [18][21]. - **Renewable Energy Growth**: The rapid increase in solar and wind generation capacity in China is expected to continue limiting gas demand growth for power generation [19][20][24]. - **Potential for Fuel Switching**: There is potential for coal-to-gas (C2G) switching if LNG prices fall below coal prices, but historical data suggests that significant switching has not occurred even when prices favored gas [48][54][60]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates that while China could play a role in absorbing some of the global LNG oversupply, various factors including domestic energy security, renewable energy growth, and historical demand patterns suggest that the extent of this absorption will be limited. The US LNG export market is likely to adjust through cancellations to balance the oversupply expected in the coming years [1][4][73].

16 November 2025 | 4:23PM EST Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST Beggar Thy Neighbor: Sizing Global Spillovers from Our Recent China GDP Forecast Upgrades Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certific ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that concerns among investors regarding the potential scale of Japan's stimulus measures may exceed expectations, leading to a resurgence in Japan's fiscal risk premium, which will exert pressure on long-term government bonds and the yen [1] Group 1: Fiscal Concerns - The market is increasingly worried that the Japanese government may abandon its commitment to "annual budget balance" and long-term fiscal goals [1] - Goldman Sachs states that even if the final outcome is not as extreme as anticipated, the market's sensitivity to fiscal issues has clearly increased [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The heightened sensitivity to fiscal matters suggests that any path towards eventual easing may be bumpy [1]

高盛的评论反映出市场的忧虑：日本长期国债收益率可能再度大幅攀升，与今年早些时候因财政担忧导 致日本国债波动并外溢至全球市场的情形类似。日本首相高市早苗已释放更激进的财政信号，称其首个 刺激计划将成为推动新投资和增长的跳板。 日媒近日报道，政府正在考虑为本财年追加约14万亿日元预算，规模将超过去年的13.9万亿日元。 新华财经北京11月17日电高盛表示，随着投资者开始担忧日本推出的刺激规模可能大于预期，日本的财 政风险溢价正在回归，这将给长期国债和日元带来压力。 策略师指出，市场越来越担心日本政府可能会放弃其"年度预算收支平衡"承诺以及长期财政目标。高盛 称："即便最终结果没有想象中那么极端，但市场对财政问题的敏感度明显上升，这意味着任何通往最 终缓和的道路都可能是颠簸的。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...