Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) has seen a significant increase of over 4%, reaching a historic high of $957.3, with a total market capitalization of $286.9 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Citigroup's research report provides a deep analysis of Goldman Sachs, projecting a 20% growth in earnings per share (EPS) by Q4 2026, which is 5% higher than market consensus [1] - The report anticipates a year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 10% in Goldman Sachs' Global Banking and Markets (GBM) business for Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The investment banking (IB) segment is expected to see a year-over-year growth rate of 17%, while trading fees are projected to grow by 9% [1] - Despite the positive outlook, there are indications of potential downside risks compared to market consensus [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating and Price Target - Citigroup has assigned a "neutral" rating to Goldman Sachs, with a target price of $765, indicating a potential downside of approximately 19.5% from the closing price of $914.34 on January 2 [1]

每经AI快讯，1月5日，高盛股价上涨4.1%，刷新历史新高。 ...

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Small Cap Value Fund underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 2000 Value Index (net), during the quarter [3]

Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs said it is “selectively constructive” on brokers and crypto companies heading into 2026, arguing that a resilient retail trading environment and continued regulatory progress should underpin growth. "We expect the meeting of traditional retail brokerage and crypto trading to continue in 2026, driving increasing competition, potentially impacting market share and product pricing," analysts led by James Yaro wrote in the Monday report. The bank upgraded crypto exchange Coinb ...

中国股票的吸引力正在持续升温。 高盛Hui Shan策略师团队在最新发布的策略报告中对中国资产发出强烈的看多信号，建议投资者在区域背景下"超配"中国股票。该行预测，受企 业盈利增长和估值修复的双重驱动，中国股市在2026年和2027年将迎来稳健的牛市行情，预计年均上涨幅度将达到15%至20%。1月5日，A股全 天高开高走，沪指实现12连阳，创1993年以来最长连涨纪录，且重返4000点上方。 尽管面临复杂的外部贸易环境，高盛对中国出口部门的竞争力保持乐观，这也是其看好中国上市公司的重要逻辑之一。报告指出，中国出口商已 成功实现市场多元化，新兴市场（EM）成为重要的增长点。 高盛分析，中国强大的制造业竞争力结合汇率优势，使得中国产品在许多国家（尤其是新兴市场）的进口份额显著增加。更重要的是，中国企业 的"出海"战略正在从单纯的产品出口转向全球化布局，中间品和资本品的出口显著上升，这表明中国制造商正在全球范围内建立工厂和供应链。 在这份题为《2026年中国展望：探索新增长引擎》的报告中，高盛维持对A股和H股的"超配"评级。高盛认为，中国股市的上涨动力将主要来自两 方面：一是企业盈利的实质性改善，预计2026年和2 ...

数据已经显示出恶化迹象：2025年12月，委内瑞拉原油出口已降至50万桶/日。由于出口受阻且国内储 油罐爆满，PDVSA（委内瑞拉国家石油公司）已被迫要求合资企业减少生产，至少20万至30万桶/日的 产能已被关闭。 汇丰与高盛的最新研报揭示了一个残酷的现实：委内瑞拉石油行业的复苏将是极度缓慢、昂贵且局部 的。 据新华社报道，美国白宫已要求美国各大石油公司对委内瑞拉大量投资，修复委内瑞拉原油开采基础设 施。 尽管特朗普承诺投入巨资，且该国名义上拥有全球最大储量，但这些"纸面原油"大部分在商业上并不具 备开采价值，市场不应期待任何"V型"反转。 据追风交易台，1月5日，汇丰和高盛的分析指出，短期内，由于制裁和混乱，石油产量甚至可能面临进 一步下跌的风险。对于投资者而言，委内瑞拉的变局短期内不会引发油价飙升，因为全球市场已严重供 过于求；但长期来看，如果数百亿美元资金真的到位，其潜在的产量回归将成为2027年后压制油价的核 心空头因素。 由于制裁和库存限制，短期产量面临"关井"风险 虽然市场在讨论复产，但汇丰指出，委内瑞拉石油行业目前的实际走向是萎缩而非扩张。在2026年1月3 日马杜罗政权倒台后，美国并未立即解除 ...

【导读】高盛发布宏观报告，2026年建议高配中国股票 中国基金报 晨曦 综合整理 1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的报告。报告称，2026年建议高 配中国股票。 高盛预计2026年和2027年中国股票将每年上涨15%至20%，企业盈利在2026年与2027年 将分别增长14%和12%，并有望叠加约10%的估值修复潜力。盈利增长加速的驱动因素包括 人工智能应用、"出海"趋势和"反内卷"政策。 高盛认为，从外部环境看，中国出口仍存在结构性上行空间。随着全球产业链重构、中国制 造业竞争力和高附加值产品占比提升，未来几年中国出口韧性有望保持，经常账户或将持续 处于较为稳健的状态。 投资方面，按GDP支出法口径，高盛预计固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至 2026年的3.5%。财政扩张将重点支持高科技、城市更新及民生相关基础设施等领域。 消费方面，高盛预计2026年居民消费增速将放缓，但政府消费有望加速并抵消个人消费的疲 弱。近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新"国补"计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向 与潜在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。 另外， ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, projecting annual stock price increases of 15% to 20% in 2026 and 2027, with corporate earnings growth of 14% and 12% respectively, alongside an estimated 10% potential for valuation recovery [1][2] Economic Outlook - China's actual GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5%, driven by structural resilience in exports and anticipated policy easing [2] - The fixed capital formation growth rate is projected to rebound from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion focusing on high-tech, urban renewal, and infrastructure related to people's livelihoods [2] Consumption Trends - While residential consumption growth is expected to slow in 2026, government consumption is anticipated to accelerate, offsetting the weakness in personal consumption [2] - The "old-for-new" subsidy plan for consumer goods is set to continue in 2026, with service consumption growth expected to outpace that of goods consumption due to policy support and structural upward potential [2] Export and Trade Dynamics - China's actual export volume growth is projected to be 5% in 2026, following an estimated 8% growth in 2025, with a current account surplus expected to increase from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 [1] - The report highlights structural upward potential in Chinese exports, driven by global supply chain restructuring and an increase in the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing and high-value-added products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, achieving a 12-day consecutive rise and surpassing the 4000-point mark, marking the longest winning streak since 1993, driven by various sectors including AI and semiconductor stocks [1][11]. Market Performance - The A-share market's trading volume reached 2.5 trillion yuan, with significant gains across multiple sectors, including brain-computer interfaces, AI applications, commercial aerospace, memory chips, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - The South Korean Composite Index rose approximately 3.4%, while the Nikkei 225 Index increased nearly 3%, with AI chip concepts leading the gains [1]. Sector Highlights - The semiconductor sector saw the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF rise by 8.45%, driven by news of Samsung and SK Hynix seeking a 70% price increase for server memory chips [1]. - Medical ETFs, including the Hong Kong Medical ETF and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, experienced significant increases of 7.13% and 6.97%, respectively, with medical device ETFs also performing well [1][2]. Fund Inflows - Various ETFs, including the Satellite ETF and the Robotics ETF, are expected to see net inflows of 690 million yuan and 340 million yuan, respectively, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is positive, with expectations of increased capital inflows [5]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has recommended overweighting Chinese stocks, projecting annual returns of 15%-20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026-2027, driven by factors such as profit improvement, valuation recovery, policy support, and macro resilience [11][12]. - Key drivers for profit growth include manufacturing upgrades, AI application advantages, improved profit margins, and a structural increase in exports of high-value products [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is a recommendation to overweight Chinese stocks by 2026, highlighting potential growth in the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The report analyzes that there is structural upward potential in China's exports by 2026, with investment expected to rebound under policy support [2] - It emphasizes the importance of service consumption, encouraging increased holidays and paid leave [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes building a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, which may lead to strong export and current account performance in the coming years [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team has previously recommended an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, forecasting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Factors driving accelerated earnings growth include the application of artificial intelligence, the trend of "going global," and policies aimed at reducing internal competition [2] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market shows a significant discount compared to global peers [2]