Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs is optimistic about China's export prospects, forecasting a real export growth rate of approximately 8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with nominal export growth remaining robust at 5.6% in 2026 compared to 5.5% in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to three main factors: rapid expansion of exports to emerging market economies driven by strong competitiveness of Chinese products and demand generated by Chinese foreign investments [2] - China holds a dominant position in rare earth and other critical mineral sectors, contributing to export strength [3] - There is potential for growth in high-tech exports, supported by policy initiatives and capital expenditure cycles related to the global artificial intelligence industry [3] Group 3 - In terms of consumption, the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy plan for consumer goods in 2026 is expected to support service consumption growth, which is anticipated to outpace goods consumption growth [3] - Investment growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to local government financing restrictions and "anti-involution" policies targeting overcapacity in certain industries [3] - However, with a policy emphasis on stabilizing investment in 2026, Goldman Sachs projects a rebound in fixed capital formation growth from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 [3]

人民财讯1月5日电，1月5日，高盛在最新发布的研报《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》中，预测2026年 中国实际GDP增速高于市场共识预测，并建议高配中国股票。高盛的股票策略团队在亚太范围内继续建 议高配A股和港股。他们预计中国股市将延续牛市，但上涨步伐有所放缓。预计2026年和2027年中国股 市将每年上涨15%-20%，分别由14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值向上重估所支撑。盈利增长潜 在再加速的关键驱动因素包括人工智能应用、"出海"趋势和"反内卷"政策。中国股市当前估值相比全球 同业存在显著折价。中国股市对于国内外投资者显著的分散化配置价值应会鼓励更多资本流入市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that major Asian economies are demonstrating resilience in 2025, successfully addressing challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies [1] Economic Environment - Declines in food and energy prices have boosted real income, while financial conditions are becoming more accommodative due to interest rate cuts in many countries [1] - Fiscal policies across the region are generally leaning towards expansion [1] Export Performance - East Asia's export performance is strong, particularly in semiconductor exports from Taiwan, with contributions from South Korea and excellent performance in nearly all other product categories from mainland China [1] Future Growth Outlook - In the context of an overall positive global economic growth outlook for 2026, East Asian exports are expected to continue thriving [1] - However, many regional economies will need to rely more on domestic growth drivers, which may increase pressure for policy stimulus and/or economic reforms [1] Regional Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs holds a more optimistic view on growth prospects for mainland China, India, Taiwan, and the Australia-New Zealand region compared to general market expectations [1] - The outlook for Japan is consistent with market views, while a more cautious stance is taken towards certain Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Indonesia [1] Inflation and Currency Trends - The firm maintains an overall optimistic view for global markets in 2026, expecting moderate inflation [1] - South Korea and Southeast Asian countries are anticipated to implement sporadic interest rate cuts towards the end of the economic cycle, with regional currencies expected to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, primarily supported by a gradual strengthening of the Chinese yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, projecting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, supported by earnings growth and valuation re-rating [1] Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The stock strategy team at Goldman Sachs has previously suggested overweighting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The expected growth is driven by 14% and 12% earnings growth, along with approximately 10% valuation re-rating [1] - Current valuations of the Chinese stock market show significant discounts compared to global peers [1] Group 2: Economic Drivers - Accelerating earnings growth is attributed to factors such as the application of artificial intelligence, the trend of "going abroad," and "anti-involution" policies [1] - Structural upward potential exists for Chinese exports in 2026, with investment likely to rebound under policy support [1] - There is an increased emphasis on service consumption, with policies encouraging more holidays and paid leave [1] Group 3: Policy and Planning - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes building a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance [1] - Strong performance in exports and the current account is anticipated in the coming years [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a macro report titled "China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Momentum" on January 5, suggesting an overweight position in Chinese stocks for 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report indicates structural upward potential for China's exports in 2026 [1] - Investment is expected to rebound with policy support [1] - There is an increased emphasis on service consumption, with encouragement for more holidays and paid leave [1] Group 2: Policy Priorities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights "building a modern industrial system" and "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance" as priority areas [1] - Strong performance in exports and the current account is anticipated in the coming years [1] Group 3: Stock Market Projections - The Goldman Sachs equity strategy team has previously recommended an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks across the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The Chinese stock market is projected to rise by 15% to 20% annually in 2026 and 2027 [1]

本文源自：市场资讯 尽管如此，多家华尔街主流投行仍预测牛市将在2026年延续。美国银行预计，年末标普500指数将触及 7100点。摩根大通与高盛则给出了更为乐观的目标，分别预测该指数将升至7500点和7600点。摩根士丹 利在《2026年投资展望》报告中预计，标普500指数将在未来12个月内升至7800点。部分观点认为，若 美联储放松政策超出预期，标普500指数甚至有望超过8000点。 作者：观察君 若标普500指数在2026年实现上涨，将创下自2007年以来的最长连涨纪录。据道琼斯市场数据统计，该 指数历史上仅出现过五次连续四年及以上上涨的走势。 在经历了连续三年的强劲上涨后，华尔街主要机构对2026年美国股市前景普遍持乐观态度，认为当前的 高估值水平尚不足以阻止市场延续升势。不过，市场共识的形成也引发部分策略师的谨慎情绪。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 自2023年至2025年，标普500指数及其他主要美国股指已连续三年实现两位数涨幅。步入本轮上涨的第 四年，市场环境更为复杂，众多大型股估值已处高位，经济前景亦显模糊。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，花旗集团发布的研究报告中对高盛集团(GS.US)进行了深度分析。报告指出，尽管 高盛自三季度财报发布以来股价表现强劲，累计涨幅达22%，但其当前的估值水平已经反映了市场对其 业绩增长的较高预期。花旗给予高盛"中性"评级，目标价为765美元，较1月2日收盘价914.34美元存在 约19.5%的下跌空间。 然而，花旗也指出了一些积极的风险因素，例如经济和资本市场的复苏速度可能快于预期，以及高盛可 能宣布超出预期的资本返还计划，这些因素都可能对高盛的股价产生积极影响。 花旗的研究报告还提供了对高盛股价表现的详细分析。自2023年以来，高盛的股价走势显示出明显的波 动性，但总体上呈现出上升趋势。花旗认为，尽管高盛的股价在短期内可能会受到市场情绪和宏观经济 因素的影响，但从长期来看，其在投资银行、交易和资产管理等领域的竞争优势将为其提供持续的增长 动力。此外，高盛在数字化转型和技术创新方面的投入也可能会为其带来新的业务增长点。 整体而言，花旗对高盛的深度分析显示，尽管高盛在当前市场环境下可能面临一定的估值压力，但其在 多个业务领域的强劲表现和未来的增长潜力使其成为一个值得关注的投资标的。投资者在评估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for two major companies, Meta Platforms and Goldman Sachs, to announce their first-ever stock splits, which could significantly impact their stock prices and investor sentiment in 2026 [2][8]. Group 1: Stock Splits Overview - A stock split allows a company to change its share count and price without affecting its market capitalization or operational performance [3]. - Forward splits are generally viewed positively by investors, while reverse splits are often associated with struggling companies [4][6]. - Historically, companies that conduct forward splits have outperformed the S&P 500 in the 12 months following the announcement [7]. Group 2: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms, part of the "Magnificent Seven," has never completed a stock split, with shares fluctuating between $600 and $800 in 2025 [9]. - Over 29% of Meta's outstanding shares are held by retail investors, indicating a strong incentive for a stock split [11]. - Meta's growth trajectory and substantial cash reserves, nearing $44.5 billion, position it well for a stock split to attract more retail investors [15][12]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs has also never split its stock, with shares rising from $60 to $879 over 26 years [19]. - More than 30% of Goldman Sachs' shares are held by retail investors, suggesting a potential need for a stock split [20]. - As a key component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stock split could reduce its influence within the index, but long-term growth prospects may necessitate a split [21][22].

智通财经APP获悉，高盛的一份新报告指出，尽管投资者不再因裁员而对企业给予奖励，但随着各公司 加快自动化进程以降低成本，人工智能将在2026年引发又一轮裁员潮。 这一警告发出之际，全球经济预计仍将大致保持稳定，凸显出经济状况与就业保障之间脱节现象的日益 严重。尽管金融市场已开始将大规模裁员视为增长前景疲弱的迹象，而非提高效率之举，但企业仍预计 会推进以自动化为主导的重组。 高盛表示，企业越来越多地利用人工智能来自动化常规和重复性任务，进而控制员工人数的增长，甚至 直接缩减员工规模。该报告指出，推动自动化战略的更多是长期重塑成本结构的努力，而非短期经济压 力。 高盛表示，涉及重复性、基于规则任务的岗位仍面临最大风险，尤其是在行政职能、客户支持以及专业 服务的部分领域。与此同时，与人工智能开发、数据治理和系统监管相关的专业岗位需求预计将会上 升，不过这些工作将需要截然不同的技能。 该报告提醒称，这一转变不太可能一帆风顺。虽然人工智能最终可能有助于提高生产力和催生新的增长 形式，但其益处可能需要数年时间才能惠及更广泛的经济领域。在此期间，企业似乎愿意承担裁员带来 的社会和组织成本。 据报道，该银行预计，即便人工智能 ...

Group 1 - The recent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has shifted focus to how quickly the country, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally, can increase its production [1] - There are significant doubts in the market regarding whether major oil companies will invest in Venezuela given the uncertain environment, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's statement about potential long-term investments [1] - Analysts from the Royal Bank of Canada suggest that if power transitions smoothly, lifting sanctions could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within the next 12 months, although the recovery path will be long [2] Group 2 - According to Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, while Venezuela theoretically could become a major oil producer again, the geopolitical situation remains unclear post-Maduro's arrest [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that a decrease of 400,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan oil production could raise Brent crude prices by an average of $2 above their forecast of $56 per barrel [3] - Global Risk Management's chief analyst notes that Venezuela's heavy sour crude oil is only processable by certain refineries in the U.S. and China, suggesting that potential losses from this oil are not particularly problematic for the global market [3]